Targeting the 200-Day

Only the willfully blind fail to see.

27
Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 10:33am

Today's action removes any remaining doubt regarding the Bank plan to break the price of Comex Digital Gold and bring it all the way down to the 200-day moving average.

Having now seen this play out again today, it is all crystal-clear for anyone not willfully blind. POSX is UNCH. Bonds are UNCH. CNY is UNCH. CDG is smashed. The same situation as yesterday and the same result.

And as you can see below, ever since the March FOMC minutes of last Wednesday, the 8:30 ET volume spike and smash has been a regular occurrence. Keep in mind that Comex trading resumes each day at 8:20 ET...so this is not simply opening tick volume.

As noted last Wednesday, price was capped within 15¢ of the 50-day moving average in the hours before the March FOMC minutes. The initial target was then a break of the 100-day which came on Thursday. When subsequent selling failed to decisively break the 100-day on Friday and Monday, sufficient firepower was deployed today to make it happen with no room for doubt.

So now the focus turns to the obvious target of all this...the 200-day moving average. A breach of this level would lead to an automatic and instantaneous flush by the HFTs that are long Comex gold. Once this key technical level is broken, these pre-programed machines will liquidate longs and some will even switch to short.

For an example of this, see the chart of Comex Digital Silver below. Note how the selling accelerates once the 200-day is broken to the downside.

And this type of selling capitulation and CoT washout is very clearly the aim of the market-making Banks that dominate the Comex. As of last week, the Large Specs in Comex gold were still NET long 105,400 contracts. While this is paltry compared to the 316,000 they were NET long in the summer of 2016, this is still way up from the NET flat and even NET short positions we saw back in October and November of last year.

So, how do The Banks cover their own shorts by inducing The Specs to sell? They break the 200-day...and they can even make this happen counter-intuitively to the "fundamentals"...forcing the supposed experts at shitco and the WGC to come up with all sorts of convoluted rationale for the selloff.

So, anyway, here's the chart that we'll watch the rest of the week...Fed fundamentals, physical demand and seasonality be damned.

More later.

TF

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  27 Comments


Apr 16, 2019 - 10:37am

2019 still = 2010

See this:

However, there is also an attempt to make 2019 = 2013. More on that later with this week's Sprott post.

surfeitndearth
Apr 16, 2019 - 10:56am
GoldHermit
Apr 16, 2019 - 11:08am

Thoughts from the pea....

1. This is about the time trouble started last year. We live in a very complex system so I put little value on this, but others might.

2. The game is obvious to us all so play it. Bash away boys, I'll be there at the bottom. I will buy miners and PMs. Once you start the cycle again, I will sell the miners and use the money for more PMs. Suck fiat from the market and use it to buy PMs. One day, there are going to be a lot of sorry people. It will be a financial Noah's arc, if you get my drift.

3. Many successful investors say that the best buys often make them sick to their stomach at the time. At the 200-day, I will look for the next round of fiat conversion.

4. I'm still in shock about Notre Dame. You can read my post from yesterday's podcast, if you want the story. I talked to my ex girlfriend last night (Parisian) and she is beside herself, as are many of our French friends. This was no accident and I believe a major cover-up is in the works. The world is less safe every day and PMs will save a lot of people from the tyrany.

I just want to go to St. Sulpice about 5AM and sit alone and smell the musty air and listen to the dead silence. It is a special place.

Marchas45
Apr 16, 2019 - 11:36am

4th

During the Crash. Keep Stacking


Apr 16, 2019 - 11:58am

Some great posts at the end of the last thread

Hey all y'all, I recommend a bit of reading near the end of the last thread--posts by Joseph Warren and AGXIIK. I was able to only give each a single hat tip.

I'm also interested to hear more commentary on Notre Dame from turdites with a French connection. If this fire was deliberate, we must view it as akin to 911 in NY. However, the symbolism of Notre Dame in Western culture is richer and runs far deeper than the shallow hubris and fleeting economic power symbolized by the twin towers.

Been hoping for a commentary post by Thomas More ...

brolgaboy
Apr 16, 2019 - 12:01pm

Putin's Passport

could someone please post the photo of Putin's passport found in the ruble of Notre Dame.

goldcom
Apr 16, 2019 - 12:10pm

Test are comments working?

Just tried to post and it didn't work.

goldcom
Apr 16, 2019 - 12:17pm

Maybe Dave Kranzler was right about this year

Dave said he thought this year would be more like 2008 when as he said gold was smashed from 1200 to 700 except it actually was 1000 something before the smash then. With eastern demand for the yellow metal 300 down from here seems a bit to much but a couple hundred down from the 1350 high earlier this year might be in the cards. We only have about another 125 to go from today.

If they can do it, it's going to be a quick trip to the 1150 area, maybe with a bounce back half way soon after and finally we will get the rally we have been waiting for in the second half of 2019.

A trip like that would surely wipe out all but the strongest hands much as it did in 2008 and it is just the type of thing the rat bastards do historically. It could happen so stay strong my friends.

lakedweller2
Apr 16, 2019 - 12:28pm

Smash of Day

Sokoman Minerals (Sprott Investment) announced what appeared to be pretty good drill results and was hit over 40% down. The "Sell The News" is getting way too carried away in the Miner stocks. This appears to be another unregulated Government encouraged program to influence perceptions of value. In other words...market manipulation, which is fraud ...which is the same as Criminal Theft by the Government and Fiduciary Agencies.

canary
Apr 16, 2019 - 12:36pm

I keep in mind...

What Danielle DiMarino Boot (ex Fed) said..."Follow the liquidity. Be agnostic about that. Liquidity is liquid, means global....and it will flow to the banks first."

My interpretation: Since the PBOC injected huge amount of credit lately, that liquidity will flow to stocks first, US stocks included....As for gold, we just have to wait for a total COT washout.


Apr 16, 2019 - 12:43pm

this week's Sprott article

Shades of 2013

Six years ago this week, Comex gold and silver prices were deliberately smashed in order to take out critical support levels that had held since 2011. The parallels to present day circumstances are obvious and must be fully considered.

The key to understanding this is to recognize that the situation in 2019 is reminiscent of 2010. We've been writing about this for months and below is the easiest link for you to review if you need to be brought up to speed.

We could lay all of this out for you again but let's just cut to the chase...

Ultimately, the dollar price of gold is an inverse reflection of confidence in U.S. monetary authorities and the dollar, itself. This paradigm is regularly on display in other currencies where structural issues lead to a crisis in confidence and the price of gold as expressed in those currencies moves higher. Two examples are shown below. Note that gold priced in Australian dollars and Indian rupee is currently near all-time highs.

As you no doubt recall, gold priced in American dollars saw all-time highs under similar conditions in 2011. The advent of QE2 and political discord led to a crisis in confidence in the dollar and the dollar price of gold hit $1920 in early September of 2011.

Price soon fell dramatically but was still near $1800 when QE3 was announced in October of 2012. Many analysts, myself included, assumed that this further debasement of the dollar through $1T in additional currency printing would send gold to new alltime highs in 2013.

Instead, in a counter-intuitive move designed to retain confidence in the US$, the dollar price of gold began to fall and by April of 2013, it sat perched upon extremely important support near $1525. This level had held as support on multiple occasions over the previous 19 months and many were watching to see if this level would hold again. And it did...until it didn't.

Friday, April 12, 2013 saw the beginning of an historic price raid designed to break the $1525 level and send the dollar price of gold cascading lower. Price fell $63.50 on Friday, April 12, taking out and closing below the key $1525 level. It then fell $140.30 on Monday, April 15, bringing the two-day loss to over $200 and sending price all the way to $1318 at its low. This event is one from which price has yet to recover, six full years later.

With the gold price trampled and global sentiment crushed, this drop in the dollar price of gold helped to maintain an illusion of confidence in the dollar and the central bankers who control it...even while global QE continued with fiat currency debasement accelerating at an unprecedented rate.

And now here we are in 2019, price remains in the same $200 range that has mostly contained it ever since the events of April 2013.

Fast forward to today and, with The Fed and other central bankers capitulating to the extremes their policies have created in the ten years since The Great Financial Crisis, these Bankers face another crisis in confidence in their fiat currency. And what has been their response? Clearly it is to create a similar environment of counter-intuitive gold selloffs. All of these being staged in order to control sentiment and, by extension, create and maintain the illusion of confidence in their policies and their dollar.

Note below the price action of Comex gold since December 2018 and the last rate hike of this cycle. Each subsequent FOMC meeting, and the release three week later of those meeting minutes, has been greeted with a smash in the dollar gold price. This despite the fundamentally positive news of rate hike and balance sheet reduction halts.

What you see above is a clear and obvious strategy being employed by The Bullion Banks which seek to dominate and control price for the BIS and the Central Banks....and it's nearly identical in the events of 2012 and 2013.

Where the introduction of QE3 should have been extraordinarily positive for the dollar price of gold and, by extension, extraordinarily negative for the US dollar, direct Bank intervention led to a break of support and a crushing of sentiment.

Where the reversal of QT and resumption of QE with negative interest rates and "every tool in the toolbox" should be extraordinarily positive for the dollar price of gold and, by extension, extraordinarily negative for the US dollar, direct Bank intervention in 2019 is leading to a drain of support and a depression of sentiment.

Unlike 2013, the current target in not a long-standing and vital support level like $1525. Instead, The Banks are clearly gunning for a break of the 200-day moving average in the hope of engendering a wave of Spec HFT selling that would be used to further depress price in the weeks ahead.

So watch to see if The Banks are successful in this latest operation. While we have no doubt that our macroeconomic forecast for 2019 is correct...and this SHOULD lead to the best gains in gold and silver since 2010...crushing sentiment through a counter-intuitive price move would clearly have an impact on WHEN these gains are finally realized.

Therefore,

  1. MONITOR the 200-day moving average
  2. ANTICIPATE the Bank desire to break it
  3. UNDERSTAND why this is their strategy
  4. WATCH the price action that follows
  5. ACT accordingly

As you'd expect, we'll be watching this at TFMR, too, and we'll keep you updated in the weeks ahead.

pennywise
Apr 16, 2019 - 1:27pm

“Act accordingly”

Excuse the naive question, but I am interested in how those of you who are wiser in these matters and who have been here for the last 6-10 are interpreting this on April 16, 2019. What are you doing to protect yourself if there is no end in sight for the next 5,10 or more years? Still stacking? Still storing food? Still finding a bug out place? What else? Thanks, I appreciate hearing your strategies.

Chic72
Apr 16, 2019 - 2:08pm

The criminals can do what they want when they want

The criminal BANKERS are demonstrating once again that they can do what they want when they want with IMPUNITY as the regulators are death dumb and blind as per usual I'll say it for the umpteenth time this isn't possible without the help of Russia, China ,turkey...etc. (basically all countries) as it's just one big cabal & they are all playing their individual roles in the movie we're currently witnessing, Our only hope is enough investors start to see the blatancy of these criminals and start taking advantage of the clear patterns that are emerging ( which I think is already starting especially regarding silver) I still believe we'll see $2000 + gold within 18 months so stay long & strong 💪

Apr 16, 2019 - 2:43pm

Be sure to see these

Not sayin...just sayin. A note of caution. Maybe just coincidence.

-SilverIsMoney-
Apr 16, 2019 - 2:52pm

Those are great questions PW...

But the real question is, why do you stack?

"I stack to prep."

Then the price declines or the duration of this madness shouldnt really matter, right?

"I stack as a part of a diversified portfolio."

We'll, congrats to you, obviously you did quite well over the last 6 years if you did this. The fact your metal is worth much less is offset by the fact you had exposure to other assets like stocks. The price declines ultimately could be used as a way to increase your exposure to the metals market.

"I stack, inclusively, and intend on getting rich doing it."

Good luck. Anyone doing this has the deck so stacked against them it would be damn near impossible to get rich. The purpose of stacking, in my opinion, is to MAINTAIN wealth OUTSIDE of the system.

We all, or should all, know the old 1964 silver quarter story - which I always first use on people who I know don't pay attention to this stuff to get them thinking.

In 1964 a quarter was worth 25cents and the national average for a gallon of gas was roughly 25cents.

In 2019 that same quarter is worth $2.71 and the national average of a price of gas is roughly $2.80.

Amazing isn't it? It's almost like no matter what the metals maintain their value relative to everything else.

BUT THAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO REMEMBER - the metals MAINTAIN their value. They don't make you rich!

There were moments, in 1980 and in 2011, where one could've gotten rich by selling all their quarters - in fact a $50 silver price makes those quarters worth $9. Had one been lucky enough to sell at those tops then they could have actually gotten rich.

But, what are the odds on that, honestly? Let's just say for a moment control of the price is lost like it was in 1980 and 2011 and the price reaches those crazy levels. How are you going to sell ALL that physical metal? Do you really think youre just going to walk into a pawn shop and do it? How quickly do you think you can sell to online retailers? Do you really think either party will give you fair value if the price rise is as extreme as it was during 1980 and 2011?

I'm reminded of a story I read on the Kitco forums well before I even started posting here. The poster talked about how one of his friends died in 1980 because a man walked into his shop in the middle of the spike to $50 and wanted to sell all his metal. The coin shop owner refused to buy because he thought the entire thing was a bubble and didn't want to get burned. The guy with the coins shot him dead because he was so angry he wouldnt cash him out.

So, what are you going to do if the online retailers or the LCS arent going to buy your metal at that price?

This, is also assuming, you have the mental fortitude at that point to actually call the top and sell.

This, is also assuming, you're not going to sell more than 10k of your metal at any one place as a way to avoid taxes. But, if you sell more than 10k and pay all your taxes, how much do you really stand to gain? Will that gain, with taxes including, make you rich?

The purpose of stacking is to MAINTAIN wealth outside of the system. If you want to get rich on the swings then trade the fraudulent paper contacts.

OR instead of diversifying your portfolio into other assets, maybe just diversify your metals into a variety of different things metal related instead of just the metal itself. Maybe hold miners, paper metal, and physical metal altogether. Maybe then you just never intend on selling your physical metal and keep the purchases/asset private.

My point is that the real question people need to ask themselves is WHY are you stacking? I think over the last decade people have lost sight of the answer.

I honestly truly believe the most important thing any of us can do is lobby our representatives to pass a law abolishing all capital gains and sales taxes on gold and silver so they are allowed to act as a parallel currency to the dollar.

Every gold/silver backed debit card and crypto currency has failed because the tax situation always gets in the way of it being allowed to act as a real currency.

Someone started a petition to the white house to do just that and it go a massive 900 signatures - far short of the 100k required.

If a legit parallel currency backed by gold and silver were allowed to flourish then there's actually a chance we could backdoor our way into another gold and silver standard. The problem is we can't even muster 1000 signatures for that effort.

What I would like to see is stackers organize into regional groups (I like the Chapter Idea, Go Reno!) and each group work towards getting capital gains and sales taxes abolished on gold and silver. Once this is accomplished the groups themselves could unite as regional banks behind their own united currency backed by gold and silver.

But do we really have the numbers and influence to do that?

If we don't then you just have to sit back and ask yourself - why are you stacking?


Apr 16, 2019 - 3:15pm

Silver is Money ... Thanks for the "must read" post.

"the metals MAINTAIN their value. They don't make you rich!"

My hat's off to those of you making fiat with JNUG and JDST or mining stocks. I cannot seem to do better than break-even after 3 years of learning and getting better.

For most of us, if you wish to become rich (whatever that means), why not start a business, earn fiat, learn about tax loopholes, and then put a hefty portion in metals and other commodities to lock in your value.

matt_
Apr 16, 2019 - 3:16pm

Why I stack (platinum).

I have been exclusively stacking platinum lately. I've been buying as much as I can reasonably afford for the past 4 months or so. I've redirected 100% of the money that was going into my brokerage account each month to buying physical platinum.

The reason I stack is like any other investment: I think the downside risk is much lower than the upside potential. I look at the Pt/Pd and Pt/Au price ratios and see a once in a lifetime buying opportunity. Those ratios are real prices, not dollars.

Do I think I will get rich? Probably not. However, the price of platinum (and silver+gold) is not going to zero.

Texas Sandman
Apr 16, 2019 - 3:58pm

too much, too fast

Just bought 1000 shs NUGT in my 401K. Am prepared to double that position if this continues in coming days.

Silver hardly budged. I'm calling BULLSHIT.

So be it.

cashonly
Apr 16, 2019 - 4:03pm

The reason I stack is clearly found in the 'other' column

Takes a bit of reading but you will encounter the 'other column':

Hamilton: "I've A Bad Feeling US Is Following In The Footsteps Of Bernie Madoff" https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-16/hamilton-ive-bad-feeling-us-following-footsteps-bernie-madoff

Island Teal
Apr 16, 2019 - 4:41pm

Consultant at Goldcorp

Anybody notice the hiring of Zinke as a "Consultant"

lakedweller2 Texas Sandman
Apr 16, 2019 - 4:45pm

Rice

Great school.

Texas Sandman
Apr 16, 2019 - 4:46pm

@silverismoney

I disagree with this:

"But, what are the odds on that, honestly? Let's just say for a moment control of the price is lost like it was in 1980 and 2011 and the price reaches those crazy levels. How are you going to sell ALL that physical metal? Do you really think youre just going to walk into a pawn shop and do it? How quickly do you think you can sell to online retailers? Do you really think either party will give you fair value if the price rise is as extreme as it was during 1980 and 2011?"

I don't know what the situation was like in 2011 because frankly, I wasn't looking to sell my silver even at $50 then. You see, I bought in 2008 because of the money-printing shenanigans. And I made a decision then short of my suddenly getting destitute I'd only sell *** IF THE REASONS FOR WHICH I BOUGHT BECAME INOPERATIVE ***. Being a rather disciplined, compulsive, yes, downright anal guy, I have not become destitute and I've seen nothing like that since. In fact, the reasons for which I bought are even more true today than they were in 2008-2009, so I only BUY. I don't sell. But here I digress. I was active in the precious metals markets during the 1980 peak, though as a young newly minted software engineer for Schlumberger, my means weren't what they are today as a physician. I bought down around $8 when I saw a breakout on a chart and sold way too early at $13, though for a nice gain. I went to my safe deposit box with these big white paint tubs, pulled the 100 oz bars out of my safe deposit box and trucked them down to the coin shop in the villarge by Rice U. in Houston where I'd been a student. Put them on the counter, sold on the spot and walked out with a check. At the peak, the public is involved buying everything in sight. Later, right before that bubble blew, people were lined up around the block at that very same coin shop, not to SELL, but to BUY. When the time comes, when the new bag holders are in the faces of the LCS owners, screaming "GIMME THAT BAG!!!", selling won't be much trouble at all. That's how it works. JMHO.

Texas Sandman
Apr 16, 2019 - 5:12pm

also did a full tilt on this one...

>This, is also assuming, you're not going to sell more than 10k of your metal at any one place as a way to avoid taxes. But, if you sell more than 10k and pay all your taxes, how much do you really stand to gain? Will that gain, with taxes including, make you rich?<

You owe taxes on gains no matter how much you sell. I don't know where the "10K" came from. If you're looking to fly under the radar with the IRS, you need to understand what will get you reported to treasury and what won't. I can go to my LCS or anywhere and sell monster boxes of silver eagles or phils until the cows come home and it won't generate a report to treasury. On the other hand, selling more than $1000 face value in junk silver will. So will selling 1000 ozs of silver in bar form. I can sell gold kangaroos all day and not generate a report. But selling 26 Krugerrands will do the trick. My friend, while the gist of your post was reasonable, you need to do some serious study on the issues as far as what's what & who's who here.

It all comes down to an antiquated law. Stay within the lines and you won't wind up on the IRS hit parade, which you should really want even if you are scrupulously paying taxes on gains.

Joseph Warren
Apr 16, 2019 - 7:05pm

Tom Woods on Notre Dame

For Doc J & all those others sadden by what happened to that great cathedral :

“ The terrible fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris has evoked sadness and horror among civilized people everywhere, and is one of those moments when we should, for a moment, set aside libertarianism and ideology, and simply be human.

It doesn't matter whether the people in question would have worshiped at Notre Dame, or whether indeed they worship at all.

They are capable of recognizing beauty when they see it, and of understanding when something is meaningful, even if they may not be able to articulate that meaning themselves.

The Church's physical structures have endured great devastation in numerous historical periods, to be sure, and in fact the monastery at Monte Cassino, the motherhouse of the Benedictine tradition, was sacked by the Lombards in 589, pillaged by the Saracens in 884, razed by an earthquake in 1349, pillaged by French troops in 1799, and wrecked by the bombs of World War II in 1944 -- though each time, the monks returned to rebuild.

The cathedrals, however, occupy a special place in the European heritage. One art historian describes them as "the greatest accomplishments of humanity in the whole theatre of art."

The more you learn about them, the more interesting and meaningful they become.

Thus at the time that Gothic architecture was evolving from its Romanesque predecessor, more and more Catholic thinkers were becoming persuaded of the link between mathematics -- geometry in particular -- and God.

Saint Augustine had made repeated reference to Wisdom 11:21, which describes God as having “ordered all things by measure, number, weight.” This idea became common currency among a great many Catholic thinkers, particularly those associated with the great cathedral school at Chartres in the twelfth century.

Ever since Pythagoras and Plato, in fact, an important strain of Western thought had identified mathematics with the divine. For mathematics was unchanging, as well as absolutely true at all times and in all places.

At the cathedral school at Chartres, explains Robert Scott (about whom more below), scholars “believed that geometry was a means for linking human beings to God, that mathematics was a vehicle for revealing to humankind the innermost secrets of heaven. They thought the harmony of musical consonance was based on the same ratios as those forming cosmic order, that the cosmos was a work of architecture and God was its architect.” These ideas led builders “to conceive of architecture as applied geometry, geometry as applied theology, and the designer of a Gothic cathedral as an imitator of the divine Master.”

Augustine, whose De Musica would become the most influential aesthetic treatise of the Middle Ages, considered architecture and music the noblest of the arts, since their mathematical proportions were those of the universe itself, and they therefore elevated our minds to the contemplation of the divine order.

The windows of the Gothic cathedral and the emphasis on light as it flooded these enormous and majestic buildings are perhaps its most salient characteristic. It makes sense, then, that the architect would have appreciated the theological significance of light. Augustine had conceived of human beings’ acquisition of knowledge in terms of divine illumination: God enlightens the mind with knowledge.

This idea of God pouring light into the minds of men proved a potent metaphor for architects in the Gothic tradition, in which physical light was meant to evoke thoughts of its divine source.

The Scholastic frame of mind has sometimes been credited with giving rise to the Gothic cathedral. The Scholastics, of whom Saint Thomas Aquinas was the most illustrious example, were intellectual system builders. They sought not merely to answer this or that question, but to construct entire edifices of thought. Their summae, in which they sought to explore every significant question pertaining to their subject, were systematic, coherent wholes, in which each individual conclusion related harmoniously to every other -- just as the various components of the Gothic cathedral work together to create a structure of remarkable internal coherence.

You don't have to know any of this to be awed by the cathedrals.

In fact, one of the great studies of the Gothic cathedral was written by -- of all people -- a Stanford University sociologist, Robert Scott, who fell in love with Salisbury Cathedral in England. He knew absolutely nothing about it. But his love for that magnificent structure led him to immerse himself in the culture that produced it -- its intellectual, social, and religious life.

I don't believe he is a Catholic. But he tells his readers, "I warmly welcome you to join me in the quest to comprehend these awesome, mysterious, and magnificent works of humankind."

The cathedrals are flesh-and-blood examples of what we mean when we speak of the Western tradition. We have no shortage of people who say they defend the West. We have a great shortage of people who have immersed themselves in that heritage to the point that they really and truly know it.

What a shame. A true garden of delight awaits you, should you ever care to look. “

-SilverIsMoney-
Apr 17, 2019 - 1:18am

To clarify...

Not advocating anyone cheat their taxes I was trying to point out most people don't consider tax implications when selling their metal.

My understanding was transactions under 10k are not reported and that commonly stackers will stay below that number to avoid taxes.

Joseph Warren
Apr 17, 2019 - 1:19am

‘saddened’

not ‘sadden’ in the above post. I just noticed it now. I’m not quite sure how that error happened. I usually blame my iPhone spellchecker. It can’t defend itself.

Alex777
Apr 17, 2019 - 10:38am

Welcome Back

Welcome back TF, although I wish you would be reporting better sentiment!

I am a new member here and partly on your latest post have reduced my exposure to silver mining stocks by 33%. The last thing I want at this stage is a hefty margin call!

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