Targeting the 200-Day

Only the willfully blind fail to see.

Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 10:33am

Today's action removes any remaining doubt regarding the Bank plan to break the price of Comex Digital Gold and bring it all the way down to the 200-day moving average.

Having now seen this play out again today, it is all crystal-clear for anyone not willfully blind. POSX is UNCH. Bonds are UNCH. CNY is UNCH. CDG is smashed. The same situation as yesterday and the same result.

And as you can see below, ever since the March FOMC minutes of last Wednesday, the 8:30 ET volume spike and smash has been a regular occurrence. Keep in mind that Comex trading resumes each day at 8:20 this is not simply opening tick volume.

As noted last Wednesday, price was capped within 15¢ of the 50-day moving average in the hours before the March FOMC minutes. The initial target was then a break of the 100-day which came on Thursday. When subsequent selling failed to decisively break the 100-day on Friday and Monday, sufficient firepower was deployed today to make it happen with no room for doubt.

So now the focus turns to the obvious target of all this...the 200-day moving average. A breach of this level would lead to an automatic and instantaneous flush by the HFTs that are long Comex gold. Once this key technical level is broken, these pre-programed machines will liquidate longs and some will even switch to short.

For an example of this, see the chart of Comex Digital Silver below. Note how the selling accelerates once the 200-day is broken to the downside.

And this type of selling capitulation and CoT washout is very clearly the aim of the market-making Banks that dominate the Comex. As of last week, the Large Specs in Comex gold were still NET long 105,400 contracts. While this is paltry compared to the 316,000 they were NET long in the summer of 2016, this is still way up from the NET flat and even NET short positions we saw back in October and November of last year.

So, how do The Banks cover their own shorts by inducing The Specs to sell? They break the 200-day...and they can even make this happen counter-intuitively to the "fundamentals"...forcing the supposed experts at shitco and the WGC to come up with all sorts of convoluted rationale for the selloff.

So, anyway, here's the chart that we'll watch the rest of the week...Fed fundamentals, physical demand and seasonality be damned.

More later.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 16, 2019 - 10:37am

2019 still = 2010

See this:

However, there is also an attempt to make 2019 = 2013. More on that later with this week's Sprott post.

Apr 16, 2019 - 10:56am
Apr 16, 2019 - 11:08am

Thoughts from the pea....

1. This is about the time trouble started last year. We live in a very complex system so I put little value on this, but others might.

2. The game is obvious to us all so play it. Bash away boys, I'll be there at the bottom. I will buy miners and PMs. Once you start the cycle again, I will sell the miners and use the money for more PMs. Suck fiat from the market and use it to buy PMs. One day, there are going to be a lot of sorry people. It will be a financial Noah's arc, if you get my drift.

3. Many successful investors say that the best buys often make them sick to their stomach at the time. At the 200-day, I will look for the next round of fiat conversion.

4. I'm still in shock about Notre Dame. You can read my post from yesterday's podcast, if you want the story. I talked to my ex girlfriend last night (Parisian) and she is beside herself, as are many of our French friends. This was no accident and I believe a major cover-up is in the works. The world is less safe every day and PMs will save a lot of people from the tyrany.

I just want to go to St. Sulpice about 5AM and sit alone and smell the musty air and listen to the dead silence. It is a special place.

Apr 16, 2019 - 11:36am


During the Crash. Keep Stacking

Apr 16, 2019 - 11:58am

Some great posts at the end of the last thread

Hey all y'all, I recommend a bit of reading near the end of the last thread--posts by Joseph Warren and AGXIIK. I was able to only give each a single hat tip.

I'm also interested to hear more commentary on Notre Dame from turdites with a French connection. If this fire was deliberate, we must view it as akin to 911 in NY. However, the symbolism of Notre Dame in Western culture is richer and runs far deeper than the shallow hubris and fleeting economic power symbolized by the twin towers.

Been hoping for a commentary post by Thomas More ...

Apr 16, 2019 - 12:01pm

Putin's Passport

could someone please post the photo of Putin's passport found in the ruble of Notre Dame.

Apr 16, 2019 - 12:10pm

Test are comments working?

Just tried to post and it didn't work.

Apr 16, 2019 - 12:17pm

Maybe Dave Kranzler was right about this year

Dave said he thought this year would be more like 2008 when as he said gold was smashed from 1200 to 700 except it actually was 1000 something before the smash then. With eastern demand for the yellow metal 300 down from here seems a bit to much but a couple hundred down from the 1350 high earlier this year might be in the cards. We only have about another 125 to go from today.

If they can do it, it's going to be a quick trip to the 1150 area, maybe with a bounce back half way soon after and finally we will get the rally we have been waiting for in the second half of 2019.

A trip like that would surely wipe out all but the strongest hands much as it did in 2008 and it is just the type of thing the rat bastards do historically. It could happen so stay strong my friends.

Apr 16, 2019 - 12:28pm

Smash of Day

Sokoman Minerals (Sprott Investment) announced what appeared to be pretty good drill results and was hit over 40% down. The "Sell The News" is getting way too carried away in the Miner stocks. This appears to be another unregulated Government encouraged program to influence perceptions of value. In other manipulation, which is fraud ...which is the same as Criminal Theft by the Government and Fiduciary Agencies.

Apr 16, 2019 - 12:36pm

I keep in mind...

What Danielle DiMarino Boot (ex Fed) said..."Follow the liquidity. Be agnostic about that. Liquidity is liquid, means global....and it will flow to the banks first."

My interpretation: Since the PBOC injected huge amount of credit lately, that liquidity will flow to stocks first, US stocks included....As for gold, we just have to wait for a total COT washout.

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