Thinking About Tomorrow

73
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 11:20am

In Craig’s absence I thought I’d provide something we can chat about, or at least you can call me names and explain how wrong I am.

I’ve been watching the metals lately and they just seem impeded. I wonder who it is that holds price down? It’s clear that Craig’s thesis of a move to 1360 & higher is pushing them upward, but the resistance from bankers just seems to have precious metals shackled. Even Palladium is feeling the drag. After the big smash back on March 27, metals have simply been flat, until last Friday when the bidders began pushing price higher. This morning looks a bit stronger than yesterday and provides some optimism. I have been trading JNUG a bit, but frankly, the action has not tempted me to jump in, until this morning. I am just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Gold Chart April 9 2019

We gotta have at least one chart today. A continued bid up through $1315 would catch my interest.

I went for a long walk with my dog in the forest yesterday morning and began pondering the future. Though I don't have a crystal ball, and I won’t claim to be a prophet, and fortune-telling is right out, I did have a few ideas about how the next decade may unfold for us.

First of all, most of us are convinced that a group of elites have been pulling all the strings they can in this world, politically & economically, tirelessly working towards a one world government for the past hundred years or so. And they’re certainly not about to give up just because an outsider won the US election, nor are they going to relinquish power to anybody else.

So here are my predictions

  • Our current POTUS will win reelection two years. Not because he is a great candidate, but because the Democrats will have a hard time settling on an acceptable candidate who might beat him, and in the meantime he will co-opt one or more of their ideas, like universal healthcare, or even free college for whoever wants it. He is also far more skilled at campaigning & debate… and especially gifted at trolling. He will make his opponent look foolish.
  • The Democratic field is so crowded that the eventual candidate will have to really distinguish themselves AND be approved by the party power brokers. If not approved, a popular candidate will get “Bernied,” as they hand the nomination to their favorite HRC replacement.
  • Many forms of international and domestic activism will continue to grow. Most groups will become more violent as the years pass, as we have seen with Antifa. The days of peaceful demonstrations are gone. Violent activism during the election season will cause many Dems to walk away, supporting a 3rd candidate, which will only help POTUS.
  • Liberals will be doubly upset when POTUS wins, and renew their efforts to have him impeached, probably on more trumped up charges.
  • The economy will continue to stagger around with little direction. If the wall and the rebuilding of infrastructure gets going in earnest, employment will be solid for those willing to work in construction or supply industries. But robotics and automation will continue displacing workers from many other sectors.
  • The media will continue bashing gold and silver, keeping masses of people away from it, steering them toward crypto currencies. Meanwhile, metals will be restrained as we’ve seen the past 10 years. We might have a spike now and then, but I won’t be surprised to see gold under 2000 and silver under 20 in 2024.
  • The world will not end. But it will become tougher than ever to make a decent living, especially for the younger generations.
  • The neocons will probably get a war, but not necessarily the one they want. We will maintain strained relationships with China and Russia, but will not threaten them militarily. Another Venezuela, or Libya is likely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump cuts a deal with the neocons to give them a war, and keep himself in power.
  • The move toward socialism is serious. Young people are for not learning how to think and analyze in college anymore, confusing their feelings for rational thought. And there economic frustration will compel them to support socialism and eventually a worldwide, centrally planned economy.

  • Finally, as Trump leaves office in six years, the youth will finally get there liberal president who will promptly move us toward socialism founded on this modern monetary theory. We will try it and it will fail, but it won’t happen fast.

So I’m not holding my breath for my modest stack of gold to increase in value anytime soon. But I will not be without it as my insurance policy. I plan to roll with the punches, live frugally, diversifying my earnings into metals, property, and needed commodities. As I turn 60 this summer, I may start a business that actually produces something of value that people will need and be willing to pay or trade to get it. Perhaps I’ll become a solar electric contractor.

We should all be thinking about some sort of business that produces something for this changing economy. If I can get my kids involved, that may be their best shot at having a career that works. Unless, of course, they get into artificial intelligence, writing algorithms for robotics or surveillance, or some other such technical industry that will help whoever is in power maintain it. The return of our old friend and his story of cultivating cannabis products should be instructive for all who think there aren’t any good small business opportunities out there

I plan to keep a low profile politically. I’d love to be a political activist working hard to restore an ethical version of capitalism, drain the swamp, and root the neocons and deep state out of our government. I’m also a realist. If a viable movement arises, I’m in.

I had quite a shock last April 1 to read a couple of stories on ZH. The first was Caitlin Johnstone’s apology to the liberals that Mueller was right about the collusion. I went for it hook, line, and sinker, not noticing the date. Next I read the article about all the tools the FED has to keep real estate and the stockmarket moving upwards for another decade. I bit on that one too. In fairness, I was out of town at a conference and not paying attention to the date.

After figuring out the joke was on me, I started thinking about the FED article. While clearly an April fool’s essay, as identified in the final line, there might be some ironic truth there about their “tools.” This beloved central bank of ours has the power to print money. And these elitists also have the media in their pocket. We should not underestimate their power to create money to save stocks, combined with their monopoly on public discourse. Perhaps this tool consists of a willingness to lie, bullshit, persuade and propagandize how good things are. I am convinced they can keep an economic panic at bay longer than we think. Perhaps that April fool’s article is closer to the truth than we want to believe.

Finally, on my trip to California last week, we stayed in the hotel in Fresno where we could see the towers for the high-speed rail being constructed. The walls of our flea-bag motel between room were paper thin and one evening we heard a group of people talking very excitedly in the next room. My wife and I finished our glasses of wine and then put the cups to the wall and listened in on a very interesting conversation.

Apparently, at least four Snowflake, Misogynist, Uber-Right, Feminist, activists (a cell known as SMURF) were plotting to disrupt the high speed rail from central CA down to the LA basin.

They discussed plans to blow it up on opening day and cause as much mayhem as possible.

One male voice said, “So I figure that we hit the Blue line from Sacramento to LA and set the charges right after leaving the station, and film that train flying off the tracks and put it on Instagram before 911 even gets the call."

The others all replied heartily, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Except for one guy, girl, dude.

Heshe said, “We can do even better than that!” The rest quieted down and listened closely. “Since the Red line is coming back to Sacramento from LA later that day, we can get two lines with the same charge at the point where they pass one another. All we gotta figure out is where and when to strike."

The others all shouted even more heartily, “YEAH, YEAH, YEAH.”

Shehe continued, with hint of superiority in her voice, “It's 393 miles between stations. So if the Red line leaves Sacramento at 6:15 am, going south at 220 mph, and the Blue line leaves LA at 7:00 am going north at 200 mph, we should be able to set our charges at … uh … Hmmm…"

A long silence followed … very long…

The first person spoke up again, “I know… Let’s just blow up the Blue line!"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.” *

They really ought to study math in college and drop the gender activist classes. Too bad Trump cut the funding. I wonder if it will ever be finished, or just stand in sections over the orchards and fields as it is now.

high speed rail line
Image: IMAGE CREDITS: YOUTUBE, CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY

* I must attribute this joke, for better or worse, to my muse who dropped it in my head as we drove into Fresno past sections of the ill-fated high speed rail project.

Almost time to walk the dog again. Have a great day and keep prepping.

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canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 12:55pm

My hopes for possible gold rally...

Have been postponed until late summer....Meantime, will look for joy in other aspects of my life.

canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 8:39am

JP Morgan's results smash expectations...in our expense

Jamie Dimon: "Even amid some global geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to grow, employment and wages are going up, inflation is moderate, financial markets are healthy and consumer and business confidence remains strong."

vonalphamatt_
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:43pm

Assange arrested - Democrats letter

We Have The Source, Optics Are Important, PANIC In DC- Episode 1839b

The Assange part begins at about 1/3 through...

This sheds some light on the Assange arrest. I personally do not believe there are two parties but that is entirely another but important subject.

NW VIEW
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:21pm

Life is filled with dilemmas!

Things long ago were easier to deal with but not today. How much should one say? Should we just keep silent and let the outcome manifest? Do we have a responsibility to "love thy neighbor' when that neighbor will hate us? Should we educate the simple to see the truth? Yes, these things do plague me these days and I usually just keep silent. Being silent will keep us friendly with those who could hear and when the horrible results come forth, knowing that they will come, we are shielded from that outcome.

I was building a new home, years ago, and a new builder was building his first spec home on the lot next door. That builder was an awful builder and he even installed a used rusty hot water tank and I said nothing. An older couple bought the home and I had met them, in their yard, several times before. I wanted to tell them of the used tank and the awful construction but also knew I had a real estate license and a contractors license and needed to stay out of the mess. Later, they bought the home, found the rusty tank, knocked on my door and asked me if I knew about the used tank. I could just lie and be clear but told them yes. They were very unhappy and never spoke to us again. If I had told them of the horrible construction, they would not have bought the home and the builder would have been upset and may blackened my eyes or have dragged me into court.

Next; I was driving by a new foundation, ready to be poured with concrete, panels up. I could see that that crew did not know what they were doing. Should I say something or keep silent? It was a different builder, not my crew. I decided to tell the crew something like: "Well fellas, I do not want to tell you how to build a foundation, but if you pour this, you will need a jack hammer and a concrete saw. If you call your contractor and point out the errors, he will see you as hero's." They did call their boss, altered the panels, poured the foundation and thanked me.

I do not always do the correct thing. There are things which should be said, timing is important, and many things that are built will not fit on the correct Foundation. jmo Jim

HistoryStudent
Apr 11, 2019 - 6:04pm

Here we are 4/11/19 at 3 pm PST and hit for $20 ish...

The POWERS and PRINCIPALITIES have taken over the FOOLISH markets by THEIR PRIVATE TRILLION DOLLAR derivative proxy. Since 2007 the Federal Reserve has added some 12 trillion (as in "T") to the debt. Since only a SMALL fraction of the total WORLD gold market in essence amounting to a 6,000 year TOTAL - we will see something like (vomit) rebellion PERHAPS sooner than later.

Within a few months we should see perhaps a HUGE $100 a day ramp- up in GOLD prices versus Federal Reserve OVERVALUED $ notes. PERHAPS the catalyst or choke-up will be when the China/Russia/India/Asian connection HAS HAD ENOUGH B.S, and they decide in CONCERT and together to go for the NECK of the Federal Reserve Monster.

It will be a sad day for America and the West... Protect yourselves...

GOLD, SILVER, AND PLATINUM - in physical has never been more undervalued...

mike97
Apr 11, 2019 - 4:56pm

Aussie miners

I have far too much De Grey (DEG in Australia and DGMLF over the counter) which I never sold because it wasn't worth much - down to 7 cents per share recently. I was shocked when I looked at my portfolio to see DGMLF up 138%. It seems that De Grey halted its stock trading Thursday at the open until Monday in Aussie land. No news has been provided and probably won't until after Friday's close. However the trading halt doesn't apply to the over the counter stocks. So rumors and speculation drove the price up. Since Novo Resources has a piece of this play and probably surrounds this play, they went up as well. At market close in North America the price of Novo had dropped to a small 1.5% gain and DGMLF had dropped to 11.4 cents and a 70.15% gain. Not too shabby on a very 'gray' day with the HUI getting whacked 1.46%. This halt could be significant as it won't take much good news to set the Pilbara on fire. Quinton Hennigh is speaking tomorrow AM in Amsterdam but he probably won't be allowed to comment.

eastofwest
Apr 11, 2019 - 3:22pm

Mining charts

Waiting for a big spike down after the steady walk down to complete the wash and rinse ...

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 3:00pm

Mining charts

Looks like an algo walk down. Has that consistent steady slope downward.

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:56pm

Steve W

Must be some validity in the persuasion comment. He drives me completely away because of his dishonesty and pompous assertions. I would find myself running in the opposite direction as he would persuade me to not have anything to do with him. Just my comment.

SteveWlangron
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:22pm

Peak Debt: Minsky moment

langron: "The markets and corporations have become the largest ponzi schemes in history - the need to borrow more to service existing debt."

Exactly, that's a feature (bug) of debt based money. It needs to continually expand to avoid implosion. Frankly I'm surprised that following the 2008 Great Recession that the implosion has not yet happened.

PMs look really sick. I guess we need CDG to hold $1290 for Friday while the $14 handle on CDS puts it yet again on sale.

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