Thinking About Tomorrow

73
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 11:20am

In Craig’s absence I thought I’d provide something we can chat about, or at least you can call me names and explain how wrong I am.

I’ve been watching the metals lately and they just seem impeded. I wonder who it is that holds price down? It’s clear that Craig’s thesis of a move to 1360 & higher is pushing them upward, but the resistance from bankers just seems to have precious metals shackled. Even Palladium is feeling the drag. After the big smash back on March 27, metals have simply been flat, until last Friday when the bidders began pushing price higher. This morning looks a bit stronger than yesterday and provides some optimism. I have been trading JNUG a bit, but frankly, the action has not tempted me to jump in, until this morning. I am just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Gold Chart April 9 2019

We gotta have at least one chart today. A continued bid up through $1315 would catch my interest.

I went for a long walk with my dog in the forest yesterday morning and began pondering the future. Though I don't have a crystal ball, and I won’t claim to be a prophet, and fortune-telling is right out, I did have a few ideas about how the next decade may unfold for us.

First of all, most of us are convinced that a group of elites have been pulling all the strings they can in this world, politically & economically, tirelessly working towards a one world government for the past hundred years or so. And they’re certainly not about to give up just because an outsider won the US election, nor are they going to relinquish power to anybody else.

So here are my predictions

  • Our current POTUS will win reelection two years. Not because he is a great candidate, but because the Democrats will have a hard time settling on an acceptable candidate who might beat him, and in the meantime he will co-opt one or more of their ideas, like universal healthcare, or even free college for whoever wants it. He is also far more skilled at campaigning & debate… and especially gifted at trolling. He will make his opponent look foolish.
  • The Democratic field is so crowded that the eventual candidate will have to really distinguish themselves AND be approved by the party power brokers. If not approved, a popular candidate will get “Bernied,” as they hand the nomination to their favorite HRC replacement.
  • Many forms of international and domestic activism will continue to grow. Most groups will become more violent as the years pass, as we have seen with Antifa. The days of peaceful demonstrations are gone. Violent activism during the election season will cause many Dems to walk away, supporting a 3rd candidate, which will only help POTUS.
  • Liberals will be doubly upset when POTUS wins, and renew their efforts to have him impeached, probably on more trumped up charges.
  • The economy will continue to stagger around with little direction. If the wall and the rebuilding of infrastructure gets going in earnest, employment will be solid for those willing to work in construction or supply industries. But robotics and automation will continue displacing workers from many other sectors.
  • The media will continue bashing gold and silver, keeping masses of people away from it, steering them toward crypto currencies. Meanwhile, metals will be restrained as we’ve seen the past 10 years. We might have a spike now and then, but I won’t be surprised to see gold under 2000 and silver under 20 in 2024.
  • The world will not end. But it will become tougher than ever to make a decent living, especially for the younger generations.
  • The neocons will probably get a war, but not necessarily the one they want. We will maintain strained relationships with China and Russia, but will not threaten them militarily. Another Venezuela, or Libya is likely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump cuts a deal with the neocons to give them a war, and keep himself in power.
  • The move toward socialism is serious. Young people are for not learning how to think and analyze in college anymore, confusing their feelings for rational thought. And there economic frustration will compel them to support socialism and eventually a worldwide, centrally planned economy.

  • Finally, as Trump leaves office in six years, the youth will finally get there liberal president who will promptly move us toward socialism founded on this modern monetary theory. We will try it and it will fail, but it won’t happen fast.

So I’m not holding my breath for my modest stack of gold to increase in value anytime soon. But I will not be without it as my insurance policy. I plan to roll with the punches, live frugally, diversifying my earnings into metals, property, and needed commodities. As I turn 60 this summer, I may start a business that actually produces something of value that people will need and be willing to pay or trade to get it. Perhaps I’ll become a solar electric contractor.

We should all be thinking about some sort of business that produces something for this changing economy. If I can get my kids involved, that may be their best shot at having a career that works. Unless, of course, they get into artificial intelligence, writing algorithms for robotics or surveillance, or some other such technical industry that will help whoever is in power maintain it. The return of our old friend and his story of cultivating cannabis products should be instructive for all who think there aren’t any good small business opportunities out there

I plan to keep a low profile politically. I’d love to be a political activist working hard to restore an ethical version of capitalism, drain the swamp, and root the neocons and deep state out of our government. I’m also a realist. If a viable movement arises, I’m in.

I had quite a shock last April 1 to read a couple of stories on ZH. The first was Caitlin Johnstone’s apology to the liberals that Mueller was right about the collusion. I went for it hook, line, and sinker, not noticing the date. Next I read the article about all the tools the FED has to keep real estate and the stockmarket moving upwards for another decade. I bit on that one too. In fairness, I was out of town at a conference and not paying attention to the date.

After figuring out the joke was on me, I started thinking about the FED article. While clearly an April fool’s essay, as identified in the final line, there might be some ironic truth there about their “tools.” This beloved central bank of ours has the power to print money. And these elitists also have the media in their pocket. We should not underestimate their power to create money to save stocks, combined with their monopoly on public discourse. Perhaps this tool consists of a willingness to lie, bullshit, persuade and propagandize how good things are. I am convinced they can keep an economic panic at bay longer than we think. Perhaps that April fool’s article is closer to the truth than we want to believe.

Finally, on my trip to California last week, we stayed in the hotel in Fresno where we could see the towers for the high-speed rail being constructed. The walls of our flea-bag motel between room were paper thin and one evening we heard a group of people talking very excitedly in the next room. My wife and I finished our glasses of wine and then put the cups to the wall and listened in on a very interesting conversation.

Apparently, at least four Snowflake, Misogynist, Uber-Right, Feminist, activists (a cell known as SMURF) were plotting to disrupt the high speed rail from central CA down to the LA basin.

They discussed plans to blow it up on opening day and cause as much mayhem as possible.

One male voice said, “So I figure that we hit the Blue line from Sacramento to LA and set the charges right after leaving the station, and film that train flying off the tracks and put it on Instagram before 911 even gets the call."

The others all replied heartily, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Except for one guy, girl, dude.

Heshe said, “We can do even better than that!” The rest quieted down and listened closely. “Since the Red line is coming back to Sacramento from LA later that day, we can get two lines with the same charge at the point where they pass one another. All we gotta figure out is where and when to strike."

The others all shouted even more heartily, “YEAH, YEAH, YEAH.”

Shehe continued, with hint of superiority in her voice, “It's 393 miles between stations. So if the Red line leaves Sacramento at 6:15 am, going south at 220 mph, and the Blue line leaves LA at 7:00 am going north at 200 mph, we should be able to set our charges at … uh … Hmmm…"

A long silence followed … very long…

The first person spoke up again, “I know… Let’s just blow up the Blue line!"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.” *

They really ought to study math in college and drop the gender activist classes. Too bad Trump cut the funding. I wonder if it will ever be finished, or just stand in sections over the orchards and fields as it is now.

high speed rail line
Image: IMAGE CREDITS: YOUTUBE, CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY

* I must attribute this joke, for better or worse, to my muse who dropped it in my head as we drove into Fresno past sections of the ill-fated high speed rail project.

Almost time to walk the dog again. Have a great day and keep prepping.

About the Author

  73 Comments

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canary
Apr 13, 2019 - 12:44am
NW VIEW
Apr 12, 2019 - 10:07pm

Friday evening, a tough week, & still inner health!

André Rieu & Amira - O Mio Babbino Caro
canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 7:17pm
-SilverIsMoney-
Apr 12, 2019 - 6:31pm

Then again...

We may have about 2 more years of this crap to deal with.

It will happen but it might not be this year.

The worst case scenario no one considers is how a EuroZone collapse - which is far more likely than a dollar collapse - will effect gold.

A crack up in the Euro could be bullish but then again it could send the dollar soaring giving all of us one last chance to pile up before it blows sky high.

As Jim Willie used to say... at the end the dollar will rise and rise and rise and then DIE.

If he's proven right then it's easy to believe theres a lot more pain coming for metals priced in dollars.

The thing to remember is eventually it will die but you have to remain solvent longer than the monetary system stays insane. Good Luck.

landplannerLibero
Apr 12, 2019 - 5:13pm

HL

Libero,

It's a gift! May have one last short lived smash to take out the weak kneed, but this is the buy of the decade. HL, EXK, MUX, GPL, and many others that will fly like 2016 at the first hint of breakout in the metals. Stay with it! The pain will end.

NW VIEWDoctor J
Apr 12, 2019 - 4:00pm

@ Dr. J.

Yes, we all have questions of ethics. It is an inner war, oh what to do? One of the builders in my current neighborhood is building things even out of the codes. He seems to sell the buildings quickly, and I say nothing. There are times when I think that I should get involved and teach him the basics of construction. He does not even have flashing over his windows, on his single wall construction. When the caulk cracks, the sheetrock will begin to get wet and next comes the mold.

Also; In our new bug out area, I have been studying the local economy and we are in the beginning of a boom town. I was told about a pizza place that had shut down, 2700 sq. ft. and all of the equipment left behind. The building, in a commercial zoning, on the main drag, is for sale for under $100,000. It has an assumable contract. I was going to buy it and rent out two sides to businesses. However, a family member wanted it and are opening up a real estate office and will use the other side for a breakfast only cafe.

There are many opportunities everywhere for those who will jump into the blessings. Jim

Libero
Apr 12, 2019 - 3:19pm

What's the heck with Hecla

down another 3% today, day after day. I've never seen a miner look so good on paper and do so lousy in performance. Really really frustrated with it.

Apr 12, 2019 - 3:12pm

Not looking good ...

I've been sitting out until we move up through that downtrending line. I suspect we are going sideways for a week, with a dip to 1285 at some point.

Image: Dr J courtesy of ThinkorSwim

NW, I like the advice you gave the concrete masons. You raise an interesting ethical issue. Talk or keep your mouth shut? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Last week, I helped one of my wife's clients with some repairs to their home, which is now on the market. I learned too much about that house--a settling foundation that makes the floor uneven, compromised dual-pane windows that are fogging up, & illegal wiring in the garage. We are going to recommend they sell it "as is," and that the seller suggests that the buyer get an inspection. I sure don't want to be in the middle.

J Siefert
Apr 12, 2019 - 2:57pm

Alasdair Macleod-Preparing for Gold as Currencies Crumble

With Jay Taylor.

Alasdair Macleod-Preparing for Gold as Currencies Crumble
AgstAger
Apr 12, 2019 - 1:44pm

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