Thinking About Tomorrow

74
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 11:20am

In Craig’s absence I thought I’d provide something we can chat about, or at least you can call me names and explain how wrong I am.

I’ve been watching the metals lately and they just seem impeded. I wonder who it is that holds price down? It’s clear that Craig’s thesis of a move to 1360 & higher is pushing them upward, but the resistance from bankers just seems to have precious metals shackled. Even Palladium is feeling the drag. After the big smash back on March 27, metals have simply been flat, until last Friday when the bidders began pushing price higher. This morning looks a bit stronger than yesterday and provides some optimism. I have been trading JNUG a bit, but frankly, the action has not tempted me to jump in, until this morning. I am just keeping an eye on it at this point.

Gold Chart April 9 2019

We gotta have at least one chart today. A continued bid up through $1315 would catch my interest.

I went for a long walk with my dog in the forest yesterday morning and began pondering the future. Though I don't have a crystal ball, and I won’t claim to be a prophet, and fortune-telling is right out, I did have a few ideas about how the next decade may unfold for us.

First of all, most of us are convinced that a group of elites have been pulling all the strings they can in this world, politically & economically, tirelessly working towards a one world government for the past hundred years or so. And they’re certainly not about to give up just because an outsider won the US election, nor are they going to relinquish power to anybody else.

So here are my predictions

  • Our current POTUS will win reelection two years. Not because he is a great candidate, but because the Democrats will have a hard time settling on an acceptable candidate who might beat him, and in the meantime he will co-opt one or more of their ideas, like universal healthcare, or even free college for whoever wants it. He is also far more skilled at campaigning & debate… and especially gifted at trolling. He will make his opponent look foolish.
  • The Democratic field is so crowded that the eventual candidate will have to really distinguish themselves AND be approved by the party power brokers. If not approved, a popular candidate will get “Bernied,” as they hand the nomination to their favorite HRC replacement.
  • Many forms of international and domestic activism will continue to grow. Most groups will become more violent as the years pass, as we have seen with Antifa. The days of peaceful demonstrations are gone. Violent activism during the election season will cause many Dems to walk away, supporting a 3rd candidate, which will only help POTUS.
  • Liberals will be doubly upset when POTUS wins, and renew their efforts to have him impeached, probably on more trumped up charges.
  • The economy will continue to stagger around with little direction. If the wall and the rebuilding of infrastructure gets going in earnest, employment will be solid for those willing to work in construction or supply industries. But robotics and automation will continue displacing workers from many other sectors.
  • The media will continue bashing gold and silver, keeping masses of people away from it, steering them toward crypto currencies. Meanwhile, metals will be restrained as we’ve seen the past 10 years. We might have a spike now and then, but I won’t be surprised to see gold under 2000 and silver under 20 in 2024.
  • The world will not end. But it will become tougher than ever to make a decent living, especially for the younger generations.
  • The neocons will probably get a war, but not necessarily the one they want. We will maintain strained relationships with China and Russia, but will not threaten them militarily. Another Venezuela, or Libya is likely. It wouldn’t surprise me if Trump cuts a deal with the neocons to give them a war, and keep himself in power.
  • The move toward socialism is serious. Young people are for not learning how to think and analyze in college anymore, confusing their feelings for rational thought. And there economic frustration will compel them to support socialism and eventually a worldwide, centrally planned economy.

  • Finally, as Trump leaves office in six years, the youth will finally get there liberal president who will promptly move us toward socialism founded on this modern monetary theory. We will try it and it will fail, but it won’t happen fast.

So I’m not holding my breath for my modest stack of gold to increase in value anytime soon. But I will not be without it as my insurance policy. I plan to roll with the punches, live frugally, diversifying my earnings into metals, property, and needed commodities. As I turn 60 this summer, I may start a business that actually produces something of value that people will need and be willing to pay or trade to get it. Perhaps I’ll become a solar electric contractor.

We should all be thinking about some sort of business that produces something for this changing economy. If I can get my kids involved, that may be their best shot at having a career that works. Unless, of course, they get into artificial intelligence, writing algorithms for robotics or surveillance, or some other such technical industry that will help whoever is in power maintain it. The return of our old friend and his story of cultivating cannabis products should be instructive for all who think there aren’t any good small business opportunities out there

I plan to keep a low profile politically. I’d love to be a political activist working hard to restore an ethical version of capitalism, drain the swamp, and root the neocons and deep state out of our government. I’m also a realist. If a viable movement arises, I’m in.

I had quite a shock last April 1 to read a couple of stories on ZH. The first was Caitlin Johnstone’s apology to the liberals that Mueller was right about the collusion. I went for it hook, line, and sinker, not noticing the date. Next I read the article about all the tools the FED has to keep real estate and the stockmarket moving upwards for another decade. I bit on that one too. In fairness, I was out of town at a conference and not paying attention to the date.

After figuring out the joke was on me, I started thinking about the FED article. While clearly an April fool’s essay, as identified in the final line, there might be some ironic truth there about their “tools.” This beloved central bank of ours has the power to print money. And these elitists also have the media in their pocket. We should not underestimate their power to create money to save stocks, combined with their monopoly on public discourse. Perhaps this tool consists of a willingness to lie, bullshit, persuade and propagandize how good things are. I am convinced they can keep an economic panic at bay longer than we think. Perhaps that April fool’s article is closer to the truth than we want to believe.

Finally, on my trip to California last week, we stayed in the hotel in Fresno where we could see the towers for the high-speed rail being constructed. The walls of our flea-bag motel between room were paper thin and one evening we heard a group of people talking very excitedly in the next room. My wife and I finished our glasses of wine and then put the cups to the wall and listened in on a very interesting conversation.

Apparently, at least four Snowflake, Misogynist, Uber-Right, Feminist, activists (a cell known as SMURF) were plotting to disrupt the high speed rail from central CA down to the LA basin.

They discussed plans to blow it up on opening day and cause as much mayhem as possible.

One male voice said, “So I figure that we hit the Blue line from Sacramento to LA and set the charges right after leaving the station, and film that train flying off the tracks and put it on Instagram before 911 even gets the call."

The others all replied heartily, “Yeah, yeah, yeah.” Except for one guy, girl, dude.

Heshe said, “We can do even better than that!” The rest quieted down and listened closely. “Since the Red line is coming back to Sacramento from LA later that day, we can get two lines with the same charge at the point where they pass one another. All we gotta figure out is where and when to strike."

The others all shouted even more heartily, “YEAH, YEAH, YEAH.”

Shehe continued, with hint of superiority in her voice, “It's 393 miles between stations. So if the Red line leaves Sacramento at 6:15 am, going south at 220 mph, and the Blue line leaves LA at 7:00 am going north at 200 mph, we should be able to set our charges at … uh … Hmmm…"

A long silence followed … very long…

The first person spoke up again, “I know… Let’s just blow up the Blue line!"

Yeah, yeah, yeah.” *

They really ought to study math in college and drop the gender activist classes. Too bad Trump cut the funding. I wonder if it will ever be finished, or just stand in sections over the orchards and fields as it is now.

high speed rail line
Image: IMAGE CREDITS: YOUTUBE, CALIFORNIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL AUTHORITY

* I must attribute this joke, for better or worse, to my muse who dropped it in my head as we drove into Fresno past sections of the ill-fated high speed rail project.

Almost time to walk the dog again. Have a great day and keep prepping.

About the Author

  74 Comments

-SilverIsMoney-
Apr 11, 2019 - 12:54pm

Dark Days....

Always come in September and April. Can't be the only one who notices this?

Assange being arrested is terrible... a dark day indeed.

eastofwest
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:04pm

Assange ...

... Seven years in the Embassy ... He is probably glad to go some else ...

SteveW lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:11pm

POTUS

lakedweller2 "His skill is in "character assassination" "

Well, that's one way of putting it; but Scott Adams in his "Win Bigly" has a somewhat different take on the issue. In essence, according to SA, his skill is super persuasion which is a rare ability. The book is pretty cheap as a Kindle. Just a comment, don't want to get involved in any cross fire.

Roccocontii canary
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:15pm
SteveW langron
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:22pm

Peak Debt: Minsky moment

langron: "The markets and corporations have become the largest ponzi schemes in history - the need to borrow more to service existing debt."

Exactly, that's a feature (bug) of debt based money. It needs to continually expand to avoid implosion. Frankly I'm surprised that following the 2008 Great Recession that the implosion has not yet happened.

PMs look really sick. I guess we need CDG to hold $1290 for Friday while the $14 handle on CDS puts it yet again on sale.

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 2:56pm

Steve W

Must be some validity in the persuasion comment. He drives me completely away because of his dishonesty and pompous assertions. I would find myself running in the opposite direction as he would persuade me to not have anything to do with him. Just my comment.

lakedweller2
Apr 11, 2019 - 3:00pm

Mining charts

Looks like an algo walk down. Has that consistent steady slope downward.

eastofwest
Apr 11, 2019 - 3:22pm

Mining charts

Waiting for a big spike down after the steady walk down to complete the wash and rinse ...

mike97
Apr 11, 2019 - 4:56pm

Aussie miners

I have far too much De Grey (DEG in Australia and DGMLF over the counter) which I never sold because it wasn't worth much - down to 7 cents per share recently. I was shocked when I looked at my portfolio to see DGMLF up 138%. It seems that De Grey halted its stock trading Thursday at the open until Monday in Aussie land. No news has been provided and probably won't until after Friday's close. However the trading halt doesn't apply to the over the counter stocks. So rumors and speculation drove the price up. Since Novo Resources has a piece of this play and probably surrounds this play, they went up as well. At market close in North America the price of Novo had dropped to a small 1.5% gain and DGMLF had dropped to 11.4 cents and a 70.15% gain. Not too shabby on a very 'gray' day with the HUI getting whacked 1.46%. This halt could be significant as it won't take much good news to set the Pilbara on fire. Quinton Hennigh is speaking tomorrow AM in Amsterdam but he probably won't be allowed to comment.

HistoryStudent
Apr 11, 2019 - 6:04pm

Here we are 4/11/19 at 3 pm PST and hit for $20 ish...

The POWERS and PRINCIPALITIES have taken over the FOOLISH markets by THEIR PRIVATE TRILLION DOLLAR derivative proxy. Since 2007 the Federal Reserve has added some 12 trillion (as in "T") to the debt. Since only a SMALL fraction of the total WORLD gold market in essence amounting to a 6,000 year TOTAL - we will see something like (vomit) rebellion PERHAPS sooner than later.

Within a few months we should see perhaps a HUGE $100 a day ramp- up in GOLD prices versus Federal Reserve OVERVALUED $ notes. PERHAPS the catalyst or choke-up will be when the China/Russia/India/Asian connection HAS HAD ENOUGH B.S, and they decide in CONCERT and together to go for the NECK of the Federal Reserve Monster.

It will be a sad day for America and the West... Protect yourselves...

GOLD, SILVER, AND PLATINUM - in physical has never been more undervalued...

NW VIEW
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:21pm

Life is filled with dilemmas!

Things long ago were easier to deal with but not today. How much should one say? Should we just keep silent and let the outcome manifest? Do we have a responsibility to "love thy neighbor' when that neighbor will hate us? Should we educate the simple to see the truth? Yes, these things do plague me these days and I usually just keep silent. Being silent will keep us friendly with those who could hear and when the horrible results come forth, knowing that they will come, we are shielded from that outcome.

I was building a new home, years ago, and a new builder was building his first spec home on the lot next door. That builder was an awful builder and he even installed a used rusty hot water tank and I said nothing. An older couple bought the home and I had met them, in their yard, several times before. I wanted to tell them of the used tank and the awful construction but also knew I had a real estate license and a contractors license and needed to stay out of the mess. Later, they bought the home, found the rusty tank, knocked on my door and asked me if I knew about the used tank. I could just lie and be clear but told them yes. They were very unhappy and never spoke to us again. If I had told them of the horrible construction, they would not have bought the home and the builder would have been upset and may blackened my eyes or have dragged me into court.

Next; I was driving by a new foundation, ready to be poured with concrete, panels up. I could see that that crew did not know what they were doing. Should I say something or keep silent? It was a different builder, not my crew. I decided to tell the crew something like: "Well fellas, I do not want to tell you how to build a foundation, but if you pour this, you will need a jack hammer and a concrete saw. If you call your contractor and point out the errors, he will see you as hero's." They did call their boss, altered the panels, poured the foundation and thanked me.

I do not always do the correct thing. There are things which should be said, timing is important, and many things that are built will not fit on the correct Foundation. jmo Jim

vonalpha matt_
Apr 11, 2019 - 9:43pm

Assange arrested - Democrats letter

We Have The Source, Optics Are Important, PANIC In DC- Episode 1839b

The Assange part begins at about 1/3 through...

This sheds some light on the Assange arrest. I personally do not believe there are two parties but that is entirely another but important subject.

canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 8:39am

JP Morgan's results smash expectations...in our expense

Jamie Dimon: "Even amid some global geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. economy continues to grow, employment and wages are going up, inflation is moderate, financial markets are healthy and consumer and business confidence remains strong."

canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 12:55pm

My hopes for possible gold rally...

Have been postponed until late summer....Meantime, will look for joy in other aspects of my life.

AgstAger
Apr 12, 2019 - 1:44pm
J Siefert
Apr 12, 2019 - 2:57pm

Alasdair Macleod-Preparing for Gold as Currencies Crumble

With Jay Taylor.

Alasdair Macleod-Preparing for Gold as Currencies Crumble

Apr 12, 2019 - 3:12pm

Not looking good ...

I've been sitting out until we move up through that downtrending line. I suspect we are going sideways for a week, with a dip to 1285 at some point.

Image: Dr J courtesy of ThinkorSwim

NW, I like the advice you gave the concrete masons. You raise an interesting ethical issue. Talk or keep your mouth shut? Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Last week, I helped one of my wife's clients with some repairs to their home, which is now on the market. I learned too much about that house--a settling foundation that makes the floor uneven, compromised dual-pane windows that are fogging up, & illegal wiring in the garage. We are going to recommend they sell it "as is," and that the seller suggests that the buyer get an inspection. I sure don't want to be in the middle.

Libero
Apr 12, 2019 - 3:19pm

What's the heck with Hecla

down another 3% today, day after day. I've never seen a miner look so good on paper and do so lousy in performance. Really really frustrated with it.

NW VIEW Doctor J
Apr 12, 2019 - 4:00pm

@ Dr. J.

Yes, we all have questions of ethics. It is an inner war, oh what to do? One of the builders in my current neighborhood is building things even out of the codes. He seems to sell the buildings quickly, and I say nothing. There are times when I think that I should get involved and teach him the basics of construction. He does not even have flashing over his windows, on his single wall construction. When the caulk cracks, the sheetrock will begin to get wet and next comes the mold.

Also; In our new bug out area, I have been studying the local economy and we are in the beginning of a boom town. I was told about a pizza place that had shut down, 2700 sq. ft. and all of the equipment left behind. The building, in a commercial zoning, on the main drag, is for sale for under $100,000. It has an assumable contract. I was going to buy it and rent out two sides to businesses. However, a family member wanted it and are opening up a real estate office and will use the other side for a breakfast only cafe.

There are many opportunities everywhere for those who will jump into the blessings. Jim

landplanner Libero
Apr 12, 2019 - 5:13pm

HL

Libero,

It's a gift! May have one last short lived smash to take out the weak kneed, but this is the buy of the decade. HL, EXK, MUX, GPL, and many others that will fly like 2016 at the first hint of breakout in the metals. Stay with it! The pain will end.

-SilverIsMoney-
Apr 12, 2019 - 6:31pm

Then again...

We may have about 2 more years of this crap to deal with.

It will happen but it might not be this year.

The worst case scenario no one considers is how a EuroZone collapse - which is far more likely than a dollar collapse - will effect gold.

A crack up in the Euro could be bullish but then again it could send the dollar soaring giving all of us one last chance to pile up before it blows sky high.

As Jim Willie used to say... at the end the dollar will rise and rise and rise and then DIE.

If he's proven right then it's easy to believe theres a lot more pain coming for metals priced in dollars.

The thing to remember is eventually it will die but you have to remain solvent longer than the monetary system stays insane. Good Luck.

canary
Apr 12, 2019 - 7:17pm

cot

NW VIEW
Apr 12, 2019 - 10:07pm

Friday evening, a tough week, & still inner health!

André Rieu & Amira - O Mio Babbino Caro
canary
Apr 13, 2019 - 12:44am
Craigo
Apr 13, 2019 - 2:17am

Assange arrest from 'The Onion'... A true word spoken in jest.

WASHINGTON—In the wake of the WikiLeaks founder’s arrest by British authorities on behalf of the U.S. for charges stemming from the publication of classified military documents in 2010, members of the American media condemned Julian Assange Friday for the reckless exposure of how they could be spending their time. “We denounce Julian Assange in the strongest possible terms for his negligence in publicly demonstrating the kinds of work journalists could actually be doing to investigate government malfeasance and hold the powerful accountable,” said Washington Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt, speaking on behalf of many of the leading members of the media who castigated Assange for never once considering the harm that bringing rampant government criminality to light no matter the consequences could do to other news publications’ reputations. “It’s abundantly clear that Mr. Assange was focused on exposing documented evidence of U.S. war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan without so much as a thought for the journalists who faithfully parroted the U.S. military’s talking points when we could have been investigating information that ran contrary to that narrative—does he realize how that makes us look? The fact that he’d just publish information vital to the public interest from primary sources exactly as it was written instead of working with government officials to omit the most damaging parts in exchange for keeping access channels open is simply beyond the pale. The fact that the American public now knows what we’re actually doing day to day is incredibly harmful to this nation.” Media industry leaders did, however, admit that they could probably stand to go easier on Assange where the sexual assault allegations made against him were concerned.

AGXIIK
Apr 13, 2019 - 9:15am

Of the many things that Assange and Wikileaks accomplished

He derailed the election of Hillary Clinton to the presidency

canary
Apr 13, 2019 - 9:49am
murphy1
Apr 13, 2019 - 9:57am

more on Assange

Snowden and Geenwald were good, but Chomsky nails the big picture.

Reflections on Investigative Journalism, Assange and Manning

In the following, make sure you click on the first "source" at the end of the 4th paragraph. VERY interesting article written 12/9/1924 by the mayor of NYC.

The more things change the more they remain the same. Also known as, history repeats itself.

What Julian Assange’s Arrest Tells Us About Our World

John Kiriakou, a CIA-anti-torture whistle-blower recently tweeted, “a fair trial in the Eastern District of Virg...

I don't like AD but he makes sense to me here.

https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/438578-alan-dershowitz-is-julian-assange-another-pentagon-papers-case


Apr 13, 2019 - 10:48am

Derailing Hillary

AGXIIK,

In my book, Assange is hero for his influence on the last election. I sure hope the Seth Rich murder gets a second look as this trial unfolds, but it sounds like they are simply trying to imprison him on the Manning charges. Great article about it in ZH today, written by a Harvard Law prof.

Chic72
Apr 13, 2019 - 2:09pm

Anyone heard of ( Karat bar coin ? ) Any advice ?

Anyone heard of ( Karat bar coin ? ) Any advice would be appreciated , as my friend is talking about investing in this company & thought maybe someone in our community might have some input on this, ( I think it's similar to KINESIS ) .... Thanks Charlie

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/22

4/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
4/23 10:00 ET New Home Sales
4/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
4/26 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Recent Comments

by NW VIEW, 17 min 1 sec ago
by lakedweller2, 29 min 4 sec ago
by AngryCitizen, 1 hour 51 min ago
by mgilbert, 2 hours 39 min ago
randomness