Monday Lows?

Overbought has become oversold. (A public post.)

Mon, Mar 4, 2019 - 9:58am

Comex Gold is down again this morning in follow-through selling on the heels of Friday's smash. But the POSX and bonds are stable so the action today may mark a low for now.

For now. I repeat that because this is going to be a long week. There will be no shortage of news and datapoints and it will all end Friday with the latest BLSBS. See below:

Comex silver is flat and, as noted above, bonds and the POSX are mostly flat, too, so what you saw earlier today was simply a reaction in London to what happened in New York on Friday:

Thus, even with this being BLSBS week, I'm somewhat optimistic that you are seeing the lows (or very near the lows) for the week. And what basis is there for this? Do you recall how we've been monitoring the RSIs for the past month or so? And do you recall how the RSI in Comex gold hit an overbought 76 two weeks ago? Well, as of this morning, it's down to an equally-oversold 36. In fact, that's the lowest daily RSI reading since October 1 of last year! The area around $1285 appears to offer some support, too. See below:

And check the RSI of the May19 silver. It's down to 34, which is the lowest since last September 28! If I see a dip to $15 later this week, I may not be able to avoid buying a call.

Also mentioned above is the non-action in both bonds and POSX today. The 2-year note and 10-year note are both flat at 2.55% and 2.74%, respectively. And the POSX is mostly flat, too, despite Trump signaling again hos disdain for the stronger dollar and dislike of CGP. See this from Saturday:

Here are a couple of links to read this morning:

Of course, as I've typed, the metals have been hit again with CDG down to $1285 and CDS at $15.08. Keep in mind that less than two weeks ago, Comex silver was $16.20 and the only remotely fundamental negative was the GDP print last Wednesday. Overall, the POSX is flat versus the February 20 FOMC minutes yet "silver" is now down 7%. What a scam.

Before I hit send, just one programming note. This afternoon, I will be heading back to MamaFerg's and will remain there the rest of the week as it's my turn to care for her and Thursday brings chemo treatment #3. It's a long drive and I'll be busy as soon as I get there so I will not be able to record a podcast today. Instead, I am going to record a brief interview with Ronni Stoeferle later this morning. I'm going to ask Ronni about 2010+9 and see how that jibes with the general themes of this year's In Gold We Trust report, which will be due out in about 90 days. Look for that audio to be posted this afternoon and thanks again for your patience and understanding as I deal with these personal issues.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 4, 2019 - 10:09am


Good luck with your Mom.

Mar 4, 2019 - 10:20am

My pea was working overtime...

OK, here's the current thinking...

1. Most of us think gold is manipulated, I'll leave it at that.

2. Basel 3 is at the end of the month and physical gold becomes a tier 1 asset.

3. March is often the worst month for gold.

4. There is extra motivation to drive the price lower this year.

This is a perfect time, with added motivation to crush price. My dream? Banks are forced to restrict their paper gold dealings because of the reclassification due to Basel 3.

Mar 4, 2019 - 10:27am


Because, you know, why not take a 10% haircut in two days?

Mar 4, 2019 - 10:45am


I’ll stake the claim.

Mar 4, 2019 - 10:56am

KL dump

This KL dump makes perfect sense these days when markets are sooo reliable. IF any of the larger mining operations or just about any miner for that matter KL can still have kick ass profits with this fraudulent pricing scheme and it's down 6% today. WTF

Mar 4, 2019 - 11:04am

A Nation of Hucksters!

The older generations, usually spot a huckster from a long distance. Now, they have taken over almost everything and are the perverted norm. Looking down around the bend, as hucksters rule, the younger generations will lose their drive to succeed, looking for the government freebee, as a way of life. This will be the end of the dreams of the inner drive of the ones who came through Ellis Island. Nothing will rise up to restore the land once blessed and the entire world will suffer at our demise. jmo Jim

Mar 4, 2019 - 12:13pm

Buying a Call

The hardware store is running a sale on ropes and pitchforks. Calls falling to 2nd place on the agenda.

Mar 4, 2019 - 12:21pm

Scheme of The Month

Banker to Hedge Funds: We are running a sale this month on miners. Feel free to short your "favorite" as you will be able to buy it back cheaply soon and personally contribute to its low price.
Mar 4, 2019 - 12:33pm

Silver Eagels are sold out vs low price of silver

Whenever the mint is out of silver eagles, the price of silver seems to go way down. How nice it must be for the mint to not have to sell at these low prices. From now on, when I read that the mint is out of eagles, I will know that the price of silver is about to get smashed.

Mar 4, 2019 - 12:53pm


45 degree walk up is only effective if you look at short term charts. Otherwise, the USD/CNY is down yearly. Therefore if technicals or fundamentals mattered, miners would still be headed to higher ground. But no, we have to pretend that there is some information from the "alternate universe" that has a controlling influence. Only criminality controls. Do you know where your Legislator is...

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 8/5

8/5 9:45 ET Markit services PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM services PMI
8/6 10:00 ET Job Openings
8/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
8/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index

Key Economic Events Week of 7/29

7/30 8:30 ET Personal Inc/Spending & Core Inflation
7/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
7/31 8:15 ET ADP employment
7/31 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
7/31 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
8/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
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8/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 7/22

7/23 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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7/24 9:45 ET flash Markit PMIs
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7/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
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7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
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7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Forum Discussion

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