Tackling Tuesday

Another day in the barrel.

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 9:22am

(For newsletter subscribers, this is a free public post.)

We've got a lot to do today so it all begins with an early start. And that's just fine because there's a lot going on.

Let's dive right in as the Comex just opened and already the digital versions of the metals are getting driven back lower after having the audacity to rally in London on a slightly stronger euro--weaker Pig. At one point a few minutes ago, CDG reached all the way back up to $1318. However, that was just before the Comex open and today's enforcement of the NEEEE Rule.

But, whatever. Even at $1316, that's far better than the alternative and still only 1% off the post-Powell highs of two weeks ago. Speaking of CGP, don't forget that he has a public appearance today at a college in Mississippi. As a poor sharecropper's son like Navin Johnson, I'm sure that CGP has all sorts of perspective to share regarding the "economic development in high poverty rural communities". While it's likely to be a non-deal, you never know what might come up in the "discussion" so keep an eye on the headlines and Twitter later this morning.

Let's see, what else is going on? After falling yesterday, palladium is charging right back today in an effort to either make a double top at $1420 or move to new alltime highs. Which will it be? We'll know soon enough.

In political news, it appears that a deal may be in the works to avoid another US .gov shutdown. And it also appears that the "deadline" for some sort of settlement in the trade war is being pushed back, too. It's all good theater, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing.

Far more important news is this...How many times have you heard me discuss business and consumer confidence and how it will wane due to natural forces and political discord in Washington? Well, here you go: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/small-business-optimism-plunge... And this is important because less-confident consumers spend less and less-confident business owners hire less. Understand this dynamic and you begin to understand how/why all of the political gridlock and impeachment stuff eventually begins to drive the economy downward. Combine this with the inverted yield curve, etc, and you get the looming recession.

And this is important news, too. Recall last month when the PBOC suddenly announced a 10 mt addition to their gold reserves after allegedly not adding anything for nearly two years? Well, apparently this is now a new trend as the Chinese added another 12 mts in January. Here's a link and thanks to "Blythesshrink" for finding it: https://www.rt.com/business/451259-china-expands-gold-reserves/

OK, so in the time it took to type this post, we went from looking to have a good day to all the way back to zilch. Mind you, this is while the POSX hasn't moved and bond yields have actually fallen. But, again, whatever. I've got too much to do today to get all worked up and frustrated by it. In the big picture, nothing much has changed from the write-up we gave Sprott yesterday: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-next-goals-for-gold-and-silver-pric...

If you want something to watch, $1318 and then $1320 remain resistance levels in the very short-term and, not surprisingly, $15.80 is the level to watch in CDS. Tomorrow will bring the latest Consumer Price Index and far more interesting action and reaction.

Have a great day but remember that today's podcast will likely be posted a little later than usual as I'm traveling back to MamaFerg's today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 12, 2019 - 7:33pm


I checked the debt clock last night as I do almost daily It was about $27 billion shy of $22 trillion. Now it's $8 billion over $22 trillion That is a $35 billion pop in one day

Prior to that it had been ramping up maybe $2-3 billion a day, some days less

I note this because of a post last week saying I like AOC's billionaire tax and Jeff Bezoz could be taxed$35 billion after his divorce and have $5 billion left over

That $35 billion would have staved off hitting $22 trillon for more than 2 weeks

I guess some one blew up the budget to see $35 billion blown in one day instead of 2 weeks

Feb 12, 2019 - 7:55pm


I’ve thought about this for some time, how do we at the opposite ends of the polital divide find common ground? We do it by respect, if we can’t do it here then it can’t be done. If I were Liberty or Lake I would have left years ago, they have been great contributors to this site, and we should celebrate their contributions. Yet they have a love for metals and they tolerate our politics...we should learn from them. We are in this metals battle together, let’s fight together and leave out R & D differences aside...we’re on the same side
Montross515 jack3617
Feb 12, 2019 - 8:44pm

Source of info, like documentation.

jack 3617

Lot of info in your post, but why believe it? Rumors or do you have sources?

Feb 12, 2019 - 9:40pm

Jack 3617, I`m keeping an open mind

I want to believe in Q, and I am not saying I don`t, but if Trump is not draining the swamp with all that it would entail, then we are well and truly fucked, imho. Let`s just assume that Trump is right and Obama was an illegitimate President, HRC is guilty of treason, and a boatload of other well known names are guilty of this or that and need to go to prison or ...Trump could not come in and tell the world that these people are guilty and imprison them, he would be inviting civil war within hours ! No, he, or they, have to gently accustom the populace to know that there are criminals in government and one by one and crime by crime disclose them. When the trials come, there will still be uproar, but it will be tempered and a lot of doubt will have been sewn among the voters of both camps, and "irrefutable" truth might been seen as such as it is. The country is in a very bad way, there is no free press, only a media Goebbels would have been proud of, and a dumbed down and misinformed (euphemism) populace, we are in a nose dive and if we don`t pull up soon, we are in serious trouble, if you don`t believe me, turn on the TV, open a newspaper or look at the kind of people being voted in to public office. Other than that, the play was great !

Feb 12, 2019 - 11:29pm

Jack 3617 ...

Those who won't understand the Q drops ... Won't read them ... WWG1WGA ...

Feb 13, 2019 - 3:16am


Everything I wrote was sourced on the internet & realize anybody can write or say what they want. I'm old enough to remember when Ike ran the first time & was used to believing the media. Now not at all that's why I printed hopefully saying rumor & insinuating I hoped this info was true. I do read a lot just finished" Hidden History" by Donald Jefferies it's very good or 'Clinton's War on Women" by Stone also very good & gives in site on the Bushes & Clinton drugs coming into this country. I don't want to start a pissing contest but know the main stream will not cover any of this news so you have to look for other sources. Most people now believe Oswald was a pastie or had help assassinating Kennedy. I'm a patriot & like the idea of making America great again. Trump is trying to bring back jobs to this country & is working for $1 a year. The media lie by omission they don't tell all that's out there. Everything is controlled by (6) large companies & they want the New World Order under socialism. Think Bolshevism! Anyway don't want to step on toes just want PM's to get out to the positive numbers & out of the bankers control.

Feb 13, 2019 - 3:27am


Here's a source you can read

Bush jr said to be executed for 9/11, Obama, clintons, Biden jailed at gitmo!
Feb 13, 2019 - 7:25am




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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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