Tackling Tuesday

Another day in the barrel.

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 9:22am

(For newsletter subscribers, this is a free public post.)

We've got a lot to do today so it all begins with an early start. And that's just fine because there's a lot going on.

Let's dive right in as the Comex just opened and already the digital versions of the metals are getting driven back lower after having the audacity to rally in London on a slightly stronger euro--weaker Pig. At one point a few minutes ago, CDG reached all the way back up to $1318. However, that was just before the Comex open and today's enforcement of the NEEEE Rule.

But, whatever. Even at $1316, that's far better than the alternative and still only 1% off the post-Powell highs of two weeks ago. Speaking of CGP, don't forget that he has a public appearance today at a college in Mississippi. As a poor sharecropper's son like Navin Johnson, I'm sure that CGP has all sorts of perspective to share regarding the "economic development in high poverty rural communities". While it's likely to be a non-deal, you never know what might come up in the "discussion" so keep an eye on the headlines and Twitter later this morning.

Let's see, what else is going on? After falling yesterday, palladium is charging right back today in an effort to either make a double top at $1420 or move to new alltime highs. Which will it be? We'll know soon enough.

In political news, it appears that a deal may be in the works to avoid another US .gov shutdown. And it also appears that the "deadline" for some sort of settlement in the trade war is being pushed back, too. It's all good theater, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing.

Far more important news is this...How many times have you heard me discuss business and consumer confidence and how it will wane due to natural forces and political discord in Washington? Well, here you go: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/small-business-optimism-plunge... And this is important because less-confident consumers spend less and less-confident business owners hire less. Understand this dynamic and you begin to understand how/why all of the political gridlock and impeachment stuff eventually begins to drive the economy downward. Combine this with the inverted yield curve, etc, and you get the looming recession.

And this is important news, too. Recall last month when the PBOC suddenly announced a 10 mt addition to their gold reserves after allegedly not adding anything for nearly two years? Well, apparently this is now a new trend as the Chinese added another 12 mts in January. Here's a link and thanks to "Blythesshrink" for finding it: https://www.rt.com/business/451259-china-expands-gold-reserves/

OK, so in the time it took to type this post, we went from looking to have a good day to all the way back to zilch. Mind you, this is while the POSX hasn't moved and bond yields have actually fallen. But, again, whatever. I've got too much to do today to get all worked up and frustrated by it. In the big picture, nothing much has changed from the write-up we gave Sprott yesterday: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-next-goals-for-gold-and-silver-pric...

If you want something to watch, $1318 and then $1320 remain resistance levels in the very short-term and, not surprisingly, $15.80 is the level to watch in CDS. Tomorrow will bring the latest Consumer Price Index and far more interesting action and reaction.

Have a great day but remember that today's podcast will likely be posted a little later than usual as I'm traveling back to MamaFerg's today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 12, 2019 - 12:37pm

the girls are back...

at the bottom of this page.

Chinese, Thai, Filipino.

I prefer Russian girls Turd. You should know by now

Angry Chef
Feb 12, 2019 - 12:38pm

Rant Alert

Just came across this authour Sven Henrich. IMHO...he's spot on. Get ready for negative interest rates and QE to the MOOOOOOOONNNNNNN !

I think we all need to send a hat tip to The Golden Jackass as he called this one 10 years ago. Up, up, and away the USD will go...until it doesn't. Or will what we've been discussing here in Turdville for years finally materialize and the PM paper ponzi will blow the doors of this charade once and for all ? Place your bets ladies and gentlemen. Do the omnipotent Central Bankers continue to kick the ponzi can down the road a wee bit further or does the PM paper ponzi expose grand ponzi for what it is an always has been ?

Bit of a chicken or the egg syndrome.


Time to reach out to SS121. Ya he was repetitive but that didn't make him wrong.

Feb 12, 2019 - 1:09pm


Did you back up the truck to AG Majestic and LOAD up at 5.91. Looking like the low for the last two days.

Feb 12, 2019 - 1:24pm


Reading some on what's going on at Gitmo. Prison Barges (2) docked and ready for guests. Rumor Bush Jr executed last week & Obama singing like a canary & that's why they were able to arrest Soros. Clinton's supposedly checked in along with the Podesta's, if true then these people should be missed after a while & the main stream will have to report their disappearance one would think. That would suggest price moving north soon. Time will tell.

Feb 12, 2019 - 1:28pm

I am dollar cost averaging.

I am dollar cost averaging. Downside is limited, but it might go down a little bit more. If silver goes to 17, than AG could double.

Feb 12, 2019 - 2:07pm

W sat courtside

W sat courtside for the UCF at SMU hoops game last Sunday afternoon. Central Florida won 71-65

Feb 12, 2019 - 3:18pm


Do you seriously believe any of that crap!

none of these weasel shit gibbons will even be prosecuted let alone punished , worst case they retire early and keep their booty

Feb 12, 2019 - 4:07pm


It will be tough but Mc Cain & Bush senior were executed. Those (2) prison barges are of the large variety. So w/70K indictments & the military over in Switzerland to arrest Soros I think they mean business. If they can arrest Soros then the deep state is losing. Also they tried to kill Air Force One back in June over Alaska w/ a missile from an Israeli sub & the sub was sunk so the story goes. Things are moving fast & furious. My hope the bankers are next & then the media.

Feb 12, 2019 - 4:26pm


You are making a lot of postings on this site look good.

Feb 12, 2019 - 5:14pm


Please stop with your bullshit, you may believe your conspiracy theories out of a desire for your narrative. However, it is utter nonsense based in dreams and not fact.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

Forum Discussion

by AGXIIK, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:58pm
by SteveW, Oct 20, 2019 - 4:09pm
by Solsson, Oct 20, 2019 - 12:30pm
by sierra skier, Oct 20, 2019 - 11:30am
by Green Lantern, Oct 20, 2019 - 8:17am