Tackling Tuesday

Another day in the barrel.

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 9:22am

(For newsletter subscribers, this is a free public post.)

We've got a lot to do today so it all begins with an early start. And that's just fine because there's a lot going on.

Let's dive right in as the Comex just opened and already the digital versions of the metals are getting driven back lower after having the audacity to rally in London on a slightly stronger euro--weaker Pig. At one point a few minutes ago, CDG reached all the way back up to $1318. However, that was just before the Comex open and today's enforcement of the NEEEE Rule.

But, whatever. Even at $1316, that's far better than the alternative and still only 1% off the post-Powell highs of two weeks ago. Speaking of CGP, don't forget that he has a public appearance today at a college in Mississippi. As a poor sharecropper's son like Navin Johnson, I'm sure that CGP has all sorts of perspective to share regarding the "economic development in high poverty rural communities". While it's likely to be a non-deal, you never know what might come up in the "discussion" so keep an eye on the headlines and Twitter later this morning.

Let's see, what else is going on? After falling yesterday, palladium is charging right back today in an effort to either make a double top at $1420 or move to new alltime highs. Which will it be? We'll know soon enough.

In political news, it appears that a deal may be in the works to avoid another US .gov shutdown. And it also appears that the "deadline" for some sort of settlement in the trade war is being pushed back, too. It's all good theater, I suppose, if you're into that sort of thing.

Far more important news is this...How many times have you heard me discuss business and consumer confidence and how it will wane due to natural forces and political discord in Washington? Well, here you go: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/small-business-optimism-plunge... And this is important because less-confident consumers spend less and less-confident business owners hire less. Understand this dynamic and you begin to understand how/why all of the political gridlock and impeachment stuff eventually begins to drive the economy downward. Combine this with the inverted yield curve, etc, and you get the looming recession.

And this is important news, too. Recall last month when the PBOC suddenly announced a 10 mt addition to their gold reserves after allegedly not adding anything for nearly two years? Well, apparently this is now a new trend as the Chinese added another 12 mts in January. Here's a link and thanks to "Blythesshrink" for finding it: https://www.rt.com/business/451259-china-expands-gold-reserves/

OK, so in the time it took to type this post, we went from looking to have a good day to all the way back to zilch. Mind you, this is while the POSX hasn't moved and bond yields have actually fallen. But, again, whatever. I've got too much to do today to get all worked up and frustrated by it. In the big picture, nothing much has changed from the write-up we gave Sprott yesterday: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-next-goals-for-gold-and-silver-pric...

If you want something to watch, $1318 and then $1320 remain resistance levels in the very short-term and, not surprisingly, $15.80 is the level to watch in CDS. Tomorrow will bring the latest Consumer Price Index and far more interesting action and reaction.

Have a great day but remember that today's podcast will likely be posted a little later than usual as I'm traveling back to MamaFerg's today.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 12, 2019 - 9:37am

Silver is very frustrating right now


Lease rates are still dropping at the moment - I had hoped they would be rising by now; probably means the banks have ammunition to continue the pullback for a while longer - although it's probably needed to clear the COT up somewhat (although who really knows given the data is still so out of date).

Feb 12, 2019 - 10:04am


was so promising 90 minutes ago when it was up 12 cents.

Its not the USD strength today pushing gold and silver down.

We know its all BS.

our problem is we know there will be a slingshot move at some time. How do we be part of that up move and not on the sidelines?

the answer is you have to play. I know from history nothing is perfect, or easy (unless you were a member of the lucky sperm club)but try getting somebody to buy in if gold was to move from low 1300's to 1500 in 3-4 days.

Feb 12, 2019 - 10:30am

Prepared for 25$ silver

Turd have been saying these last days to be prepared for 25$ silver. I have not seen any serious discussion on this topic. How to prepare for that price of silver? Stack more? Sell your house and buy calls? Long JNUG? Buy miners? Which miners? First Majestic?

This is just to start a discussion. What is your answer to all of this Turd? I am thinking of going heavy into First Majestic. I am afraid of those 3x because I am no trader.

Angry Chef
Feb 12, 2019 - 10:39am

Daniel Estulin: New Global Order as U.S. Takes Venezuela, China

Interesting interview. The debt based monetary system ended. Infinite growth is over. We're just watching the last gasps of a dying dragon. Now what is going to replace it ? Nuclear War is on the table. Regional trading blocks ? Or does America lock down it's borders and go into a new age of technological advancement ? The only thing certain in Mr. Estulin's mind is collapse is inevitable. Or as he say's you go to the Bank and there is a sign on the door " Gone Fishing " but the Banks never open again.

Daniel Estulin: New Global Order as U.S. Takes Venezuela, China Gets North Korea
Feb 12, 2019 - 10:50am

Bronze . . . . . .

So, CGP is speaking today at Mississippi Valley State . . .

And who might be the most famous alumnus of this relatively modest institution? Why, it's the GOAT -- Jerry Rice!

This past season, Larry Fitzgerald moved into second place all-time among NFL receivers, passing Terrell Owens. He only needs another 6,000 yards to catch Rice!

Another piece of NFL trivia: Among the Top 5 NFL receivers of all time, Fitzgerald is the only one not to have played for the San Francisco 49ers . . .

Feb 12, 2019 - 10:53am

Still praying for your Mom

Keep the faith and be strong for your Mom. I have her in my prayers. We're about the same age, so I understand the tough period with the parents.

Feb 12, 2019 - 11:50am

Feb 12, 2019 - 11:56am

Once again...

...the profit from the crime far outweighs the cost of the fine or settlement.


Feb 12, 2019 - 11:58am
Feb 12, 2019 - 12:23pm
Feb 12, 2019 - 12:37pm

the girls are back...

at the bottom of this page.

Chinese, Thai, Filipino.

I prefer Russian girls Turd. You should know by now

Angry Chef
Feb 12, 2019 - 12:38pm

Rant Alert

Just came across this authour Sven Henrich. IMHO...he's spot on. Get ready for negative interest rates and QE to the MOOOOOOOONNNNNNN !

I think we all need to send a hat tip to The Golden Jackass as he called this one 10 years ago. Up, up, and away the USD will go...until it doesn't. Or will what we've been discussing here in Turdville for years finally materialize and the PM paper ponzi will blow the doors of this charade once and for all ? Place your bets ladies and gentlemen. Do the omnipotent Central Bankers continue to kick the ponzi can down the road a wee bit further or does the PM paper ponzi expose grand ponzi for what it is an always has been ?

Bit of a chicken or the egg syndrome.


Time to reach out to SS121. Ya he was repetitive but that didn't make him wrong.

Outback MrOnline
Feb 12, 2019 - 1:09pm


Did you back up the truck to AG Majestic and LOAD up at 5.91. Looking like the low for the last two days.

Feb 12, 2019 - 1:24pm


Reading some on what's going on at Gitmo. Prison Barges (2) docked and ready for guests. Rumor Bush Jr executed last week & Obama singing like a canary & that's why they were able to arrest Soros. Clinton's supposedly checked in along with the Podesta's, if true then these people should be missed after a while & the main stream will have to report their disappearance one would think. That would suggest price moving north soon. Time will tell.

MrOnline Outback
Feb 12, 2019 - 1:28pm

I am dollar cost averaging.

I am dollar cost averaging. Downside is limited, but it might go down a little bit more. If silver goes to 17, than AG could double.

Stockum jack3617
Feb 12, 2019 - 2:07pm

W sat courtside

W sat courtside for the UCF at SMU hoops game last Sunday afternoon. Central Florida won 71-65

AGAU jack3617
Feb 12, 2019 - 3:18pm


Do you seriously believe any of that crap!

none of these weasel shit gibbons will even be prosecuted let alone punished , worst case they retire early and keep their booty

Feb 12, 2019 - 4:07pm


It will be tough but Mc Cain & Bush senior were executed. Those (2) prison barges are of the large variety. So w/70K indictments & the military over in Switzerland to arrest Soros I think they mean business. If they can arrest Soros then the deep state is losing. Also they tried to kill Air Force One back in June over Alaska w/ a missile from an Israeli sub & the sub was sunk so the story goes. Things are moving fast & furious. My hope the bankers are next & then the media.

Feb 12, 2019 - 4:26pm


You are making a lot of postings on this site look good.

Feb 12, 2019 - 5:14pm


Please stop with your bullshit, you may believe your conspiracy theories out of a desire for your narrative. However, it is utter nonsense based in dreams and not fact.

Feb 12, 2019 - 5:26pm

Forest For The Trees

Two things that caught my attention this week, 2/10/19

good grasp on the issues



Feb 12, 2019 - 5:35pm


Mr Boggs........What don't you understand & maybe I can do some fact checking.

Feb 12, 2019 - 5:55pm


I have friends following Q and I hear similar things which I tend to ignore as it makes CNN look good. My advice to you is go back and peruse every one of Q's posts and you can actually watch Q's narrative changing to fit the times and at other times they become very contradictory. When Trump 'about faced' and began bombing Syria after promising he would get us out, Q slid a humdinger out that Trump was bombing the deep state in Syria. Then Q went on to state Iran was building nukes in Syrian underground. McCain and Bush were NOT executed for god's sakes. There are no sealed indictments and most of all every time Q pointed to a date where 'big things' were going to happen - they didn't.

Feb 12, 2019 - 6:16pm

jack fair question

"why don't you understand"? Jack, we all need facts to understand. The great thing about this site is we are community. We are all still political and we call each other out on "perceived" facts. Conspiracy theories are just those...theories. The problem always comes to a head when my fact is someone else's "non-fact" ergo... abortion. Abortion for me is murder for others it is a women's right to choose. But I digress, the one thing I know is the longer you stay the more you will learn. learning is a humbling experience. To the Turd community, all of you who post regularly have been a wealth of knowledge, it has made a positive impact on my life...thank you.
Feb 12, 2019 - 6:19pm


Thanks for answering cashonly that's where I got most of my info. I looked to Trump supporting Q in some of his drive by's by blowing the horn on his car he was riding in. I will check more closely in the future & get the link to the info. I'm aware of people doing disinformation & will do more of believe but verify.
Feb 12, 2019 - 6:22pm



Feb 12, 2019 - 6:30pm

new conspiracy theory

Love God with all your heart, soul, and mind and your neighbor as yourself. We can all do the second part on this site.
Feb 12, 2019 - 6:38pm

Going "all in" on First Majestic

It's dangerous to go "all in" on a single stock. There are other good choices in the silver mining sector. AG is overvalued compared to its peers. FSM, MAG, and PAAS are worth a look. I currently own the first two but have also owned AG and PAAS. The problem with going "all in" is that if something big goes wrong at one of its mines, the stock suffers for a long time. It's safer to spread yourself out over two or three of them. And don't forget WPM. The royalty/streaming plays are the closest you can come to blue chips in this sector. They never lost 80%-90% of their value during the downturn, the way many mining stocks did. I own six of them (WPM, FNV, RGLD, SAND, ALS.TO, and MTA.V).

CC Horses
Feb 12, 2019 - 6:46pm

22 Trillion Today

US Debt Clock over 22 trillion and counting

1 billion per day interest

Peterson said that interest on the national debt already costs more than $1 billion daily, and "as we borrow trillion after trillion, interest costs will weigh on our economy and make it harder to fund important investments for our future."


CC Horses
Feb 12, 2019 - 6:57pm

OT - Teacher Fired for giving zeros

A Florida teacher has been fired for giving her students zeros for missing assignments.

Diane Tirado has been a teacher for years.

Diane recently gave her students two weeks to complete an Explorer notebook project, but several students simply didn’t hand it in. Since there was zero work done, Diane gave them zeros.

She got fired for it.

50 is the lowest grade you can give students.

I am just speechless.



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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
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5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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