This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

43
Thu, Jan 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.

I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.

So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:

POWELL: (when) "the need for balance sheet growth comes again, there's room to do substantially more".

That's QE4 he's talking about.

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) January 30, 2019

Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...

Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-31/chicago-pmi-plunges-2-year-lows

The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:

@TFMetals you might be interested in the findings of our latest #GoldDemandTrends report, which saw annual gold demand gain 4% on the back of the highest central bank buying in 50 years. Download here: https://t.co/fFn0UrQCzD pic.twitter.com/7uEItLghL6

— World Gold Council (@GOLDCOUNCIL) January 31, 2019

The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-wgc/central-banks-bought-more-go... Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?

As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.

Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)

As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.

As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.

It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.

More later,

TF

p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  43 Comments

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:50pm

Classic miner bullshit

Sokomon just got smashed for 30% when an order to sell 100,000 shares suddenly appeared.

Hilarious. What a unregulated freaking joke this stuff is.

Stevediva
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:51pm

I hope you don't mind, stevediva

I'm going to screenshot that and tweet it.

brolgaboy
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:55pm

Turd, millions trading

you know it trades on the Venture right? not sure where you are getting the idea that 100k has caused this drop. Anyway I am happy to try a punt here at 13 cents CDN
brolgaboy
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:59pm
Ozymandias
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:26pm

John Batchelor needs to try

Colloidal Silver. Whatever he is doing now is obviously not working because his voice gets worse every week. I really learn a lot from his talks with Cohen but at the rate he is going he is going to be speechless soon. Don't want that to happen.

Just Keep Stacking. We know we are right!

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:30pm

Thomas More...Wow...

...quite the collage. Would France be in this position if Le Pen had won the election and not that Globalist pool boy Macron ?

https://journal-neo.org/2019/01/31/dear-france-i-told-you-le-pen-really-...

I still think they rigged that election. Le Pen's per-election polling #'s were 14% higher. After the election she finished over 20% down overall. Then they arrested her on bogus charges and bombed here office headquarters. Just an FYI.

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:32pm
mgilbert
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:35pm

sokoman

time to add to the position - down 40%. Perhaps Craig can ask Sprott about this big drop.

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 2:35pm

RickshawETF...Silver Chart

I noticed that as well. Turds Silver chart has been running .25-.30 behind the spot price for a couple of day's now. Gold seems to be within a few cents. The Silver Chart seems to be in " backwardization".

bp9291
Jan 31, 2019 - 3:07pm

Treasury yields, question?

I am sure this has been discussed but anyway, all the treasury yields are falling like a rock, they say there is a real flight to safety, quality (pardon me for a second, that was hard to type), maybe some but that would be more a reflection on how bad everything else is. Is the Fed influencing these down? Certainly in their best interest to do so, huge market but printing money is no problem and I just have to believe they are being massaged down. Big moves too. thanks Joe

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
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11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
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11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
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11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
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