This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

Thu, Jan 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.

I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.

So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:

Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...

Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically.

The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:

The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?

As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.

Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)

As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.

As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.

It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.

More later,


p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


indiana rod
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:43pm


With us today are those three formidable candidates for President, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown.

Kamala Harris--"Education is a fundamental right and we will guarantee that right with universal pre-K and debt free college."

Elizabeth Warren--"I thought of that first."

Kamala Harris--"Health care is a fundamental right and we will deliver that with medicare for all."

Elizabeth Warren--"I thought of that first."

Sherrod Brown-- "Could I say something..."

Kamala Harris --"I'm not done talking. We need to get rid of I . C. E. and make America like California, a sanctuary country."

Elizabeth Warren-- "I'm for that too."

Sherrod Brown--"Could I..."

Kamala Harris --"I'm not done talking. And every American should have a minimum income of at least $500.00 a month. We need to rebuild the middle class."

Elizabeth Warren--" I said that first. Didn't you see me drink beer like an ordinary person."

Sherrod Brown--"I..."

Kamala Harris --" I'm not done talking. Did you see the 20,000 people at my meeting when I announced I was running for President? Obama only had 18,000 at his announcement."

Elizabeth Warren --"Well, did you see my husband and dog following me in Iowa like I was an ordinary person?"

Sherrod Brown--"Listen! Ohio will vote for me instead of Trump. No Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. And I'll beat him in his home state of New York too."

Kamala Harris--Any Democrat will beat him in New York. I'll win California and New York and that accounts for almost 100 electoral votes.

Sherrod Brown--"Well.... I would win California too."

Kamala Harris--"Give it up Sherrod. No one with bad hair has ever been elected President."

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:47pm

Next stop for the stock market

It now looks like all systems go for a test of the 200 day moving average.

Thomas More
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:49pm

re:posting what I just said on the previous thread


everything you said in the above post is absolutely right. Sit back cool your heels guys - we are going to have a great year - yes.

But until Gold can out-muscle what the Boys are doing to stocks - we aren't going to get the rally we're hoping for.

All those money managers who make their living from being in the right quartile - this has always been about relative performance - they don't buy gold because for six years it has been dead money - and it has been planned that way by our friends in the Central Banks. Every once in a while I dream of a white knight - someone who will allow price discovery - encourage the same laws for everyone - just a dream. Martin Luther King had a dream - very dangerous for your health.

We are still backing and filling but as good as CGP was to us - it is not playing out correctly for us yet.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:56pm

Chug Chug

JNUG Got a 29% increase in that position. I'll take it

Fucking Kitco prices SDB is a better test of PM prices Not a big spread between Kitco but SDB is selling PMs. So is Kitco WTF!

Good to see some life in PMs

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:57pm

palladium today

Moved higher in London on renewed physical concerns but is now getting the Comex paper treatment. Look familiar?

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:05pm


When QE1 started at the end of 2008 I expected that the economy would head into inflation and maybe hyperinflation due to the increase in the quantity of currency. I understood that hyperinflation was due to an excessive printing of currency (from the Weimar experience, inter alia) and only subsequently learned that this was a facet of the Austrian school of economists who claimed that "inflation is always a monetary phenomenon".

So thereafter I started to purchase gold and silver as insurance.

However subsequent inflation was modest and not hyper-inflation and I learned that the Fed had "sterilized" this increase in the quantity of currency. They did this by paying interest on the "excess reserves" that banks held at the Fed, in excess of the statutory reserve requirement. The banks also assisted somewhat by making only a limited increase in their loan portfolio. Yet the tinder has been accumulated should the Fed ever lose control of their sterilization programme.

So we have seen an increase of asset prices and a 10 year bull stock market whose maintenance is now essential to keep hedge funds and pension funds somewhat viable. The world having reached peak debt over the past 48 years of unrestrained debt expansion (since the 1971 Nixon shock) has resulted in ZIRP (zero interest) and even negative interest policies. This has promoted cannibalization in the corporate sphere where companies have borrowed cheap money to buyback stock, increase the stock price and richly reward the corporate officers. Talk about perverse collateral damage.

So what will happen with QE4 and can hyperinflation which is being increasingly fueled be staved off forever globally? Damned if I know, it's above my pay grade, but there are folks here who have better insight.

Thomas More
Jan 31, 2019 - 1:18pm

Up front

As you know each Saturday there is a manifestation in Paris by the Gilets Jaunes. This Saturday - they have programmed all of the defigured persons to lead the parade. I feel outraged by the ZH post stating that wearing masks will be forbidden now. This site has made a collage of photos to represent a face (warning not pretty)

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:39pm

prices easing back over the past couple of hours

Blame it on the 25¢ rally in the POSX and some short-term profit taking.

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:46pm

For you non subscribers....reading this free post

Don't be a cheapo!

Sign up for this website. It will save you money. Plus Turd F is a good guy and goes out of his way to tell it like it is.

Sign up now!

YOU WILL NOT REGRET IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jan 31, 2019 - 1:49pm

oops Sokoman!

down 45% now that's a serious haircut

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/15

7/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed Index
7/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Import Price Index
7/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
7/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
7/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
7/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
7/19 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 7/8

7/9 8:45 ET Fed Stress Conference, three Goon speeches
7/10 8:30 ET CGP Hump-Hawk prepared remarks
7/10 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk House
7/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
7/10 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/11 8:30 ET CPI
7/11 10:00 ET CGP Hump-Hawk Senate
7/11 12:30 ET Goon Williams
7/12 8:30 ET PPI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/1

7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
7/2 6:35 ET Goon Williams
7/3 8:15 ET ADP June employment
7/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
7/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
7/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
7/4 US Market Holiday
7/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 6/24

6/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales
6/25 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
6/25 5:30 pm ET Goon Bullard
6/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/27 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/28 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
6/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
6/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 6/17

6/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits
6/19 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/19 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/21 9:45 ET Markit flash June PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 6/10

6/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
6/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
6/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
6/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/14 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 6/3

6/4 All day Fed conference in Chicago
6/4 10:00 ET Factory Order
6/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
6/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
6/6 8:30 ET US Trace Deficit
6/7 8:30 ET BLSBS
6/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/28

5/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/30 8:30 ET Q1 GDP 2nd guess
5/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Consumer Spending
5/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Recent Comments

by lakedweller2, Jul 20, 2019 - 11:35pm
by SteveW, Jul 20, 2019 - 6:01pm
by DeaconBenjamin, Jul 20, 2019 - 5:50pm

Forum Discussion

by zman, Jul 20, 2019 - 2:35pm
by Solsson, Jul 20, 2019 - 11:38am
by AGXIIK, Jul 20, 2019 - 10:39am
by Green Lantern, Jul 20, 2019 - 9:54am
by Green Lantern, Jul 20, 2019 - 9:49am