This Is Only Step One

This is a free public post. Given the circumstances, you should take time to read it.

43
Thu, Jan 31, 2019 - 11:54am

If you've been following along since late last year, then you know there is nothing about the current action, economic climate or Fed policy that is unexpected. Therefore, it's very important to note that this is still just the initial rally of 2019. There will always be pullbacks and mini-corrections but this is going to be a very good year for us so you must remain patient and engaged.

I suppose that I don't have to post this link again but I will just in case there are a few of you who missed it. This post was written on Thursday the 10th and posted on Monday the 14th. Like the "GAN2017" and the "Three Themes of 2018", this was meant to serve as your roadmap for the months ahead.

So here we are. As discussed in yesterday's podcast, Fed policy is changing precisely as we expected it to and now we are on course for future rate cuts and even a resumption of QE. Your key money shot from Powell's press conference? See below:

POWELL: (when) "the need for balance sheet growth comes again, there's room to do substantially more".

That's QE4 he's talking about.

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) January 30, 2019

Anyway, there's no sense in rehashing the events of yesterday when there's so much going on today. Thus, let's dig in...

Today's economic data was poor again. Jobless claims soared but that was due to the US government shutdown. More important was the steep drop in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. And don't be fooled by new home sales. This number only rose because prices fell dramatically. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-31/chicago-pmi-plunges-2-year-lows

The WGC is out with their annual gold demand report. You can read it here:

@TFMetals you might be interested in the findings of our latest #GoldDemandTrends report, which saw annual gold demand gain 4% on the back of the highest central bank buying in 50 years. Download here: https://t.co/fFn0UrQCzD pic.twitter.com/7uEItLghL6

— World Gold Council (@GOLDCOUNCIL) January 31, 2019

The key takeaway? Global central banks added the more gold to their reserves in 2018 than they had in over 50 years! See this: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gold-wgc/central-banks-bought-more-go... Again and as we repeatedly state, if sovereign nations are actively converting dollar reserves into physical gold, shouldn't YOU be doing the same?!?

As far as prices go, everything is following through nicely today...BUT...we are getting very near our initial rally price goals first laid out for you back in November. We expected a run in CDG to $1310-1330 and I have a high today of $1330.15. We expected CDS to move through $15, head toward the 200-day, move next to $16 and then finally to $16.40. I have a high today of $16.20 so we're getting close there, too.

Nothing would make me happier than to simply continue higher day after day but we all know that that's NOT how the Comex gold and silver markets operate. Additionally, if you're attempting to trade, NEVER forget this tried and true TFMR adage: "Always be prepared to sell some when things looks rosiest and but some when things look dismal". Tomorrow brings the BLSBS and it would be terrific if we could continue along and close the week above these levels. HOWEVER, if the BLSBS exceeds expectations by even a little, it will serve as an excuse for some Spec washing and a drop back to at least $1320. So, don't get complacent. (Of course, if you're simply stacking and holding as I am, mini-corrections in 2019 will simply serve as a prime opportunity to buy the dip.)

As mentioned above, Comex Digital Gold is now right at the top of the price target range that we first laid out over two months ago. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, though an extra extension to $1337 would seem to make sense, this may be as far as we go for a little while.

As for Comex Digital Silver, I still think we get all the way to the 200-week and the 2016 downtrend line before The Banks attempt to slam the door. It will likely need the momentum of the coming mid-February bullish cross to break through in a few weeks.

It has gotten really late as I've been dealing with a bunch of MamaFerg details before and during the construction of this post. I'd better cut this short and stop here so that we can get this posted asap. However, be sure to check back later for your daily podcast summary and review as there are many more details we need to discuss regarding the metals and the shares.

More later,

TF

p.s. Due to the circumstances, I thought we'd make this a public post as an example of what we do here every day. Membership at TFMR is just $12/month or 40¢/day and a subscription in 2019 has never been more valuable. Therefore and for a limited time, all new subscribers have an opportunity to receive half off their first month subscription. Simply visit this page: www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe and then enter the coupon code MAXOUT2019 at checkout. Now's the time to join us at TFMR. 2019 and 2020 are going to be terrific years for precious metal investors. Don't miss out on the fun!

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  43 Comments

RickshawETF
Jan 31, 2019 - 11:56am

First!

Podium gold on the final day of January!

It looks like silver got monkey-hammered when it approached $16.20 -- it got to $16.198 and then got taken back of the 'ol woodshed . . . Down $0.13 in 25 minutes! Big Red Candles.

chudson
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:02pm

Silver

Go go go

Angry Chef
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:10pm

Trump won’t accept trade deal unless China opens market to....

Trump won’t accept trade deal unless China opens market to manufacturers, bankers and farmers

https://www.intellihub.com/trump-wont-accept-trade-deal-unless-china-ope...

Hmmmm...Let me understand this. Manufacturers make stuff. Farmers grow stuff. Bankers pull fairy dust out of their behind and charge us for it...." No deal for you round-eye " ! Reminds me China prior to the Opium Wars. The British didn't want to pay for goods coming from the East in Gold & Silver. So they offered the Asians pretty paper notes with a picture of Queen Victoria on them. And the British said: " You don't want Gold & Silver for your tea, ivory, silk, herbs etc....You want these beautiful paper notes instead "...." No deal for you round-eye ! You want tea, ivory, silk, herbs etc....You pay Gold & Silver " ! So the British did what the British do. Forced the Opium Wars on Asia. Invaded and stole as much Gold & Silver and replaced them with paper notes.

The more things change the more things stay the same. And here's a story of their Cousin...

http://www.webnewsys.com/2019/01/europes-hitler-killed-over-10-million.html

silverflowerRickshawETF
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:13pm

Business

as usual.

RickshawETF
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:17pm

Turd

On your TFMR homepage, the silver chart on the top right seems to be frozen at $15.75 All the others seem to be current . . .

Edit: OK, it's moving, but it's at $15.84 -- when you click on the link, it brings up the silver chart, which is at $16.08

Maestro
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:18pm

Sokomon V.SIC

For those that are interested in more detail:

V.SIC

Newfoundland/Labrador based (secure operating region)

Sprott did a private placement of $3,000,000.00 for 20,000,000 units at $.15

Market Cap of only 16.3M (micro-cap play) Cash on hand is now $3.2 Million

From latest Press Release: Drill hole MH-18-39 returned a 5.10 m (core thickness) intercept averaging 124.20 g/t Au, including a 1.10 m* visible gold bearing quartz vein averaging 550.30 g/t Au. This intercept lies 35 m up-dip (above) drill hole MH-18-01 that returned 11.90 m averaging 44.96 g/t Au, including a high- grade vein that averaged 385.85 g/t Au over 1.35 m (true thickness of vein is believed to be 90% of core length). The 5.10 m interval, beginning at a down-hole depth of 79.40 m (50 m vertically), includes two 1.0 m samples above the high-grade vein that averaged 2.89 g/t Au, as well as two 1.0 m samples below the vein which averaged 11.15 g/t Au. Assays are pending for 12.80 metres of core up- hole and 4.50 metres of core down-hole from the reported 5.10 m interval. The high-grade vein included a 0.60 m core length sample that assayed 199.99 g/t Au and a lower, 0.50 m core length sample that assayed 970.69 g/t Au. (*Note: vein true thickness estimated to be 95% of reported thickness).

Microcap with a strong land position in the Moosehead Gold Project. Close proximity to the Trans Canada Highway / Services.

If you're looking for leverage and an exciting play, I would encourage everyone to research/do their own due research. This is of course, highly speculative.

Note: I hold a relatively large position. I have lived in Nfld. I know the region.

Sokomoniron.com

matt_
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:18pm

Inowars next in Mueller investigation?

I listened to this last night:

https://www.trunews.com/stream/is-robert-mueller-in-hot-pursuit-of-alex-...

Apparently Roger Stone posted an internal letter from infowars that shows they were paying Jerome Corsi $15,000 per month, even though he wasn't working for them. Roger Stone claims it was "hush money", probably referencing Wikileaks.

They also said Infowars is involved in 5 different lawsuits. A judge allowed the plaintiffs access to years of financial records, emails, and text messages from Infowars. Trunews is speculating that the Feds may want to look at those records as well.

It seems Infowars has a target on their back. Alex Jones claimed in the Austin American Stateman that Infowars pulls in $45 million per year, and Alex Jones has a $2 million annual salary. All of the financial details will probably be made public, but it will be interesting to see if all that income is from selling food supplements and water filters.

Turd, maybe you should consider selling Super Male Vitality pills. It seems like there is a lot of money in that business.

RickshawETFsilverflower
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:19pm

silverflower

Who could have seen this coming ??? ROTFL

kaiserwongze
Jan 31, 2019 - 12:34pm

to close the week

Maybe my sample size of mkt people I follow on twitter is too low, but literally every single one of them who have any comments on the metals is calling for an immediate and deep pullback, for various reasons. Or they're completely skeptical about this runup into the 1360 resistance.

Could the contrarian position be to just to hold on and expect a further breakout tomorrow and into next week?

Good to see the open interest winding down and not as many calls being bought vs. puts. In fact, with yesterday's move, it was pretty much one to one call vs. put action.

Jan 31, 2019 - 12:42pm

Strong Sentiment

JNUG traders ain't following the $5 pullback in gold, supporting price within 2% of today's highs--evidence of strong sentiment among traders. Half way down to support at 1320.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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