2010 + 9

A guide to 2019 and beyond.

29
Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 9:22am

For each of the past several years, we've written January posts that helped to serve as a road map for the year ahead. Though crystal ball-gazing is an inexact science, on balance we've done a pretty good job with these forecasts. As 2019 dawns, we thought we should give it another try today.

Let's begin with where we've been...

After the election of Trump in November of 2016, a narrative was quickly assembled and shoved down our collective throats. This narrative included a strong dollar, a bursting of the bond bubble, a roaring stock market and falling gold prices. We felt this was mostly garbage and we wrote about it here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8103/questioning-generally-accepted-...

Heading into 2018, the establishment theme was a strong dollar that would drive the US economy and stock market forward. Again, this was all supposed to lead to falling gold prices. We didn't buy it and instead listed three, primary themes that would drive events through the year. You can read all about it here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8755/three-themes-2018

So, how'd we do? Again, on balance we did quite well. Yes, the stock market rose in 2017 but the dollar fell, the bond market bubble did not burst and gold prices gained more than 10%. And last year, despite all of the dollar bullishness that permeated and drove most markets, the dollar index only gained 4.6% and, by late in the year, the Political Risk that was listed as Theme #1 was definitely taking hold and driving the dollar lower. Yes, the price of gold fell in 2018 but, in the end, the decline was less than 3%...a far cry from the doom and gloom so many generalists had predicted.

Thus here we are in 2019 and the time has come again to post some long-term projections. What excitement will the year bring and how will all of this impact gold and silver prices?

Well, if you're a member of this site, then you likely already know where we're headed with this. If you're not, then perhaps the title of this post gives it away. To put it succinctly, the year 2019 will closely resemble the year 2010 in regards to the economy, the dollar and Fed policy. Most importantly, these factors will all combine to drive gold and silver prices to their best year since 2010...when Comex gold rose nearly 30% and Comex silver rose by an amazing 83%! We may not be able to duplicate these gains in 2019 but we're going to do pretty well, that's almost certain.

And why do we say this with such confidence? Again, the answers lie in the macro similarities to 2010. To wit:

  • The US economy began 2010 in a recovery mode from The Great Financial Crisis. The mainstream media banged on incessantly about "green shoots" and GDP growth was positive. In fact, Q2 of 2010 saw GDP grow by 3.7%, Q3 was +3.0% and Q4 was +2.0%.
  • The Fed had initiated the first QE program to monetize the debt in March of 2009 but it was completed in 2010. It was generally considered a one-off and a success...and also never to be needed or repeated again.
  • And the dollar rose as the US economy was perceived to be recovering faster than the rest of the world. The dollar index posted a 2010 gain of 1.5%.

For the just completed 2018,

  • The US economy was reported to have grown nicely with gains of 2.2% in Q1, 4.2% in Q2 and 3.3% in Q3.
  • The Fed hiked the fed funds rate every quarter to the point where this overnight rate is now at 2.50% and the full yield curve is essentially flat.
  • And the dollar rose as the US was perceived to have the strongest developed economy. As mentioned above, the total gain for the dollar index in 2018 was 4.6%.

Turning back to a decade ago, the US never made it to renewed prosperity in 2011. After peaking in Q2 2010, the US economy began to visibly slow and the dollar began to decline with it. Similarly, a funny thing happened on the way to higher interest rates and balance sheet normalization in 2018. Just as in 2010, the US economy began to slow and the dollar began to decline.

And now here we are, with a sense of deja vu all over again. Under similar circumstances, the Fed reverted to their original intentions in November of 2010 and announced what was dubbed "QE2", a second QE program that promised another $600B in bond buying. This plan allowed the Fed to buy even more garbage securities from their member Banks as well as monetize an additional $300B in US debt. The market reaction was swift and consequential by late 2010.

Through 2011, the dollar fell sharply and a crisis of confidence grew to the point where US gridlock, government shutdown and debt ceiling debates led in August 2011 to the first S&P downgrade of US credit quality in history.

As you'll recall, the dollar prices of gold and silver skyrocketed. As 2010 began, Comex gold was trading near near $1100 per ounce. By early September 2011, it reached $1920. Comex silver was even more crazy. It began 2010 near $17 and was still just $18 in early August. However, the crisis of confidence brought about by the reversal of Fed policy (QE2) and an epic short squeeze of The Banks in early 2011 led to a peak of $48 by late April 2011. Yes, that was a nearly 150% gain in about eight months.

Can this happen again? Of course it can. A better question is will it happen again? And now we get to the point of this post.

As laid out above, economic conditions and Fed policy as we begin 2019 are very similar to what we experienced in 2010. This alone should get your attention. However, consider all of the additional extenuating circumstances at present:

  • Political discord in the US is at levels unseen for decades with the very high likelihood of congressional investigations and even impeachment of the president. Not only will this serve to create massive legislative gridlock, it will also derail any hope and confidence the American consumer may have for the year ahead.
  • Falling consumer and business confidence will lead to economic slowdown, lower tax revenue at all levels and falling home prices.
  • All of this leads to an exacerbation of US government debt levels. With trillion dollar deficits projected through the next decade (and these are based upon 2+% economic growth!) the US national debt will explode along with the interest costs to service this accumulated debt.
  • And this will matter in 2019. The total debt in 2010 was just $12B and there was hope that the US could "grow out of it". The next recession will finally bring with it the realization that that's not possible.

Ultimately, The Fed will be forced to reverse their current policy of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. Will they hike the fed funds rate again in March? I have no idea and, frankly, I couldn't care less. They will either not hike in March and begin a move toward rate cuts and QE by later this year OR they will hike fed funds in March and begin a move toward rate cuts and QE by later this year. So what's the difference?

Comex gold and silver have already begun to decipher the situation and THIS is the reason they have begun to move higher after bottoming for good back in November. Oh sure, the stock market weakness of December helped with a few extra bids, but that influence was minor compared to the awakening that gold and silver have had to the pending Fed changes and fiscal crises of 2019.

We've often stated recently that the calendar year of 2019 will see Comex gold and silver post their best gains since 2010. Of this we are completely certain. Will these gains be 30% for gold and 80% for silver? Maybe, but probably not. We were early by about six months in projecting the economic turn last year and we may be early by six months in projecting the Fed's turn in 2019, too. However, what IS certain is that The Fed will eventually be forced to reverse course, just as they did in 2010, and when they do, the reaction in Comex gold and silver will be even greater than in was in 2011.

Why? Because this time there will be no reversal of course and confidence. The Bernanke Fed was able to convince the world that the $1T of QE3 in 2013 would be beneficial and lead to a stronger dollar versus the ECB's euro and the BoJ's yen. Confidence in the dollar returned and the metals fell dramatically. Not this time. Eight years down the road have led us to a place where, once the realization sets in that the central banks have no broad plan and that all they can do is create fiat currency, the Comex metals will soar and then remain on an upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.

Of course now, don't go thinking that this will be easy and that The Banks will simply stand down and allow prices to run. Experience has taught us that that will NEVER be the case! Instead, expect Comex precious metal prices to resume the typical bull market pattern that we witnessed from 2002-2011. Price will move two steps forward while Specs accumulate longs and Banks issue shorts and price will fall one step back as the inevitable "Spec Wash and Rinse" occurs. However, the overall trend and momentum will be undeniably higher for all of the reasons laid out in this post.

So, go now and begin to plan accordingly. Diversify your portfolio by following the lead of the Chinese, the Russians and many other sovereigns with dollar reserves. Perhaps you might accumulate a few mining shares after doing some thorough research and due diligence. And, most importantly, add to your stack of physical precious metal while you still can and while prices remain at these affordable levels.

About the Author

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tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  29 Comments

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Angry Chef
Jan 14, 2019 - 2:10pm
chudson
Jan 14, 2019 - 1:50pm

@chudson, if you're having a

@chudson, if you're having a display issue, you need to send us an email with details. We need to know what type of device you're using, what browser, what browser version, and even a screen shot if you can share.

Please send to admin[at]shimshockgroup[dot]com so we can investigate.

Regarding scrolling back to the top, there is an "up" arrow in the lower right corner of every page that floats with the page. If you click it, it will scroll right back to the very top.

Maybe you cannot see this since you're saying the page is cut off for you.

mavensTF
Jan 14, 2019 - 1:37pm
chudson
Jan 14, 2019 - 1:11pm

Turd

The right side of the column is and has been 'cut off' on my screen for a long time - so I can not Hat Tip anyone and some of the words on the right side are 'trimmed ' . Just wanted you to know.

Also it would be easier if on your main article the hat tip and comment etc was at the bottom of your article so we don't have to scroll all the way back up to ? tip etc.

Great article and thank you for all you do !!

Angry Chef
Jan 14, 2019 - 1:02pm

Fascism

The only solution I can come up with to resolve this situation CAF spoke about. That is non-violent. Is to stop paying taxes. Call your Congress Critter and tell them this is not acceptable. Refuse to comply. Otherwise they'll just continue and the Wall that gets built will be used to keep you in. Just like debtor prisons.

cashonly
Jan 14, 2019 - 12:44pm

A rose by any other name is still ......

Fascism should more properly be called corporatism because it is the merger of state and corporate power."

- Giovanni Gentile, the philosopher of fascism, in the first edition of the Italian Encyclopedia

Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Jan 14, 2019 - 12:31pm

David Jensen audio

Listen to this re palladium

Re the ongoing rally in palladium, check this from @RealDavidJensen in a podcast with @MoneyMetals. Discussion begins at the 6:00 mark.https://t.co/2vFWCkSoj3

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) January 14, 2019
Jan 14, 2019 - 12:12pm

Three days of NEEEE Rule

Of course, this is entirely normal and indicative of free/fair markets....

lakedweller2
Jan 14, 2019 - 12:03pm

Pissible Algo Strategy Today

If it has Silver in the name short and cap it.
lakedweller2
Jan 14, 2019 - 11:54am

Turkey

Think the easy answer: Central Banking.

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/30

11/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
12/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI Nov
12/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI Nov
12/2 8:15 ET ADP Employment Report
12/3 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI Nov
12/3 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI Nov
12/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit Nov
12/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Forum Discussion

by 11IMIX, Dec 3, 2020 - 7:02pm
by 11IMIX, Dec 3, 2020 - 7:01pm
by SteveW, Dec 3, 2020 - 3:41pm
by Nijle, Dec 3, 2020 - 11:15am
randomness