Inversion Immersion

After years of warning, yield curve inversion is finally here.

33
Tue, Dec 4, 2018 - 10:21am

We've been writing and warning about an inverted yield curve for years now. It took a little longer than expected to get here but the moment has come, nonetheless.

If you've been around here for a while, you may remember this post from 2015. My primary mistake in this podcast was in thinking that the $15T+ in global QE would keep a bid in the 10-year somewhere near 2%. This meant that The Fed couldn't hike the fed funds rate more than once or twice. As we've found out in the years since, the actual rate that appears to be the lid is near 3.25%...with the "stock market" crashing...

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

33 Comments on Inversion Immersion

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

Recent Comments

by scoremore, 14 min 16 sec ago
by scoremore, 1 hour 4 min ago
by Wizdum, Apr 19, 2019 - 11:44pm
by Joseph Warren, Apr 19, 2019 - 7:54pm
by NW VIEW, Apr 19, 2019 - 6:42pm
randomness