Starting Fresh

Sat, Oct 20, 2018 - 12:06pm

The updated TFMR is up and running!

As you've no doubt noticed, the revamped TFMR is a complex beast. There are all sorts of updates and added capabilities and this will make the experience for all of us here even better.

The old site was built on a Drupal platform in 2011 and a lot has changed over the years as technology has surged forward. Think of trying to use your 2011 Blackberry to access all of 2018's apps and websites. Going forward, our new site will eliminate the issues we've had with Apple products. It was also end the frustrating cycle of forced logins/logouts. It also has complete mobile capability. And a whole bunch more new stuff that I don't even know about yet.

So, thank you for your patience as we work out the bugs and get acquainted with everything. New and improved can sometimes feel frustrating and unnecessary, however, in this case, it was completely necessary and worthwhile.

As you know, I'm away from Turdfork this weekend as MrsF and I are visiting LT#1 at college. (And boy-oh-boy do I have a raging headache today from too many beers at the local Oktoberfest last evening!) I had promised everyone a podcast this morning but, frankly, I don't know yet how to post one! So, just this quick update.

In Comex gold, It was great to see price close at $1230 yesterday. That's another GREEN weekly candle and maintaining above $1200 and $1220 is very important in terms of a bullish/hopeful chart configuration. For next week, the goal remains a close above the 100-day moving average and then $1240 as this will engender even more Spec short-covering.

And as you can see on the gold CoT below, a MASSIVE move in Spec short-covering already took place back on Thursday the 11th when price surged through the 50-day and ended up $34 on the day. We'll discuss this more on Monday.

In Comex silver, that reverse H&S we've been discussing continue to trace out. On the weekly chart, getting back above and staying back above $14.50 is seemingly an important development. As expected, the move in the silver CoT wasn't nearly as dramatic as it was in gold.

Again, thank you for your patience as we get restarted and Ron and his team work out any kinks that suddenly appear. Have a great weekend and I look forward to next week.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Oct 20, 2018 - 8:44pm

Libero said:

Libero said:

"I now need to scroll right and left on I phone to read a post.

Never had to do that on the old/better site."

The scrolling you are referring to is because we still have the old website's Google leaderboard ad at the very top. It is not mobile-responsive, which it needs to be. Once we have access to the ad account, we'll be able to update that.

I'm trying to understand though... how was the old website "better" when viewing on a phone? It wasn't a responsive design and certainly not mobile compliant.

Oct 20, 2018 - 8:48pm

Mickey said:

Mickey said:

"Trying to post now, and if this goes thru then what I did was disable Ghostery and Privacy badger for tfmetals, and listed TF metals as a trusted site for "no script"."

While I think the issue was the spam filtering software, you do make some good comments about blocking scripts in general. If someone has a lot of stuff blocked in their browser and does not accept cookies with the banner at the bottom of every page, there will be limits on the available features.

For example, the podcast player and YouTube videos will be filtered out of posts because technically they can track personalization data (especially YouTube). Every time someone clicks a YouTube video, they are agreeing to Google's terms on capturing personal data.

Oct 20, 2018 - 8:56pm

Libero said:

Libero said:

"Irritating constant border at top (TFMR logo) which decreases a third of viewable area"

A third of the viewable area? Even on the smallest possible device (a smartphone) it only takes up a small amount at the top. What exactly are you referring to?

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:08pm

gold way p said:

gold way p said:

"Do not like new site. Too white too hard to log on, will not renew. Guess its better for me to go solo anyway. Didn't that JavaScript Have a well advertised glitch and hack into it? "

I would appreciate if you give us a little time to get things ironed out. As I've already said, the color can be changed by Craig whenever he likes.

I'm not sure what you are referring to in regards to it being hard to log in, other than that we have spam filtering software in place to ensure bots are not gaining access to the site. If anything I would hope we have made the access process easier by putting login, new password, and registration all on the same page.

I don't know what you mean by JavaScript "hack"... JavaScript is just a tool. That would be like saying a hammer has a glitch because I picked it up and smashed a hole in my wall. It is completely dependent on what it is being used for, and I don't know of any modern website not using JavaScript.

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:17pm

gold way p said:

gold way p said:

" Do not appreciate name being used will never comment again"

I already removed your entered name on your account profile.

A couple of additional comments about this:

1) We notified everyone about this several weeks ago on one of Craig's posts. We certainly were not trying to "spring a surprise" on anyone.

2) We only migrated information you had already made publicly available to the rest of the site. I want to be absolutely clear about this:

  • The profile fields were on the old site.
  • You were able to enter your name, location, and "about me" information.
  • All of this information had *always* been publicly available by everyone on the old site. Nothing about this changed.
  • We disclosed on the old website that any info added into those profile fields was publicly available to everyone on the site.

We did not pull information from subscriptions, orders, or anywhere else to add into those fields. It was only added to your new account if you entered it on your own on the old site, and by doing so, you made it publicly available.

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:18pm

I was also muted. My profile

I was also muted. My profile site, the mute is gone. If this posts. Am now fixed.

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:23pm

Yep, you're muted. We'll get

Yep, you're muted. We'll get it fixed.

boomer sooner
Oct 20, 2018 - 9:28pm

Back to business.

Back to business.

Anyone one read this? I have a difficult understanding of exactly Alasdair was trying to say other than money(bonds) is priced(interest) by money inflation(expansion) rather than demand of debt. If someone with a better understanding could redneck this, please do so.

It Will Not End Well" - How Gibson's Paradox Has Been Buried

by Tyler Durden

Sat, 10/20/2018 - 15:25

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via,

Until the 1970s, all recorded history showed that bond yields were tied to the general price level, not the rate of price inflation as commonly believed. However, since then, the statistics say this is no longer the case, and bond yields are increasingly influenced by the rate of price inflation. This article explains why this has happened, and why it is important today.

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:28pm

I am up and running now after

I am up and running now after tweaking my security settings --so I'll probably hold off on other comments unless I have trouble with the basics of using the system.

I'll make a list of potential enhancements which might be similar to most everyone here, although I think its down to "tweaking" the system (and tweaking has different definitions).

That said I really liked the set up when when we came back to website and thread, we were able to restart with the next post. But I will deal with it either way.

The other thing to have would be a definitive date when we should go all in on metals in the most aggressive way--on the morning of the day before the big move starts.

I have noticed that a lot of the spx timing experts usually throw out a change alert notice in the middle of the night when futures are up or down nicely. That helps their success rate

Oct 20, 2018 - 9:38pm

Admin. When refreshing the

Admin. When refreshing the page while on last page of the comments, it jumps to first page after refresh. Elementary mistake and very enjoying. Fix pagination.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.


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Key Economic Events Week of 1/27

1/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/28 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/29 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales
1/29 2:00 pm ET FOMC Fedlines
1/29 2:30 pm ET Powell presser
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/31 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/2 10:00 pm ET Chiefs win SB LIV

Key Economic Events Week of 1/13

1/14 8:30 ET CPI
1/14 9:00 ET Goon Williams
1/15 8:30 ET PPI and Empire Fed
1/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Philly Fed
1/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
1/17 9:15 Et Cap Ute and Ind Prod

Key Economic Events Week of 1/6

1/7 8:30 ET US trade deficit
1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/8 8:15 ET ADP employment
1/9 8:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
1/9 1:20 ET Goon Evans 2:00 ET Goon Bullard
1/10 8:30 ET BLSBS
1/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 12/16

12/16 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
12/16 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs Dec
12/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
12/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
12/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
12/20 8:30 ET Final guess Q3 GDP
12/20 10:00 ET Pers Inc and Spending
12/20 10:00 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 12/9

12/10 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
12/11 8:30 ET CPI
12/11 2:00 pm ET FOMC fedlines
12/11 2:30 pm ET CGP presser
12/12 8:30 ET PPI
12/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/13 10:00 ET Business Inventories
12/13 11:00 ET Goon Williams speech

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

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11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
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11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
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11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
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