Prepper Fatigue

Building the dream (part 1)  

Back in the tumultuous days of 2011, I was certain that the world economy would crash at any moment. Some would say my wife and I had already bugged out, living an hour from any large metropolitan area  (that is actually our old home pictured here... brings back many good memories  now).  We lived in a modest house on a 5 acre wooded property on the edge of a 40K town. But I was troubled.

About that time,  The whole family watched a movie (mainstream propaganda) that portrayed the bug out of a prepper family during a false alarm of power outages. They bugged out to their dream property with its underground bunker. The story was clearly intended to dissuade people from prepping. But it asked a fair question: “Am I willing to shoot neighbors who come to get my food?” I am still pondering that one, but I think I know the answer. And in this town, those neighbors would be coming.

I knew that once the crash arrived we’d likely be stuck there, 6 states away from our family & old friends, on the edge of a meth infested mid-west economic armpit, filled with poverty, drugs and crime. Homes could be bought for 1K, and sometimes free if you knew the right people. Though we had been prepping and fortifying our acreage, I was feeling increasingly dubious of its adequacy as a long-term haven: too few friends, no kin, and crime that had become too personal.

Our kids were the first to feel “Prepper Fatigue.” They were really into the prepping and stacking early on, probably because they thought it was fun and exciting. When a big storm knocked power out at our home for seven days, they had a blast cooking meals on a Coleman stove and lighting candles … for a while. The lack of showers and other luxuries began to affect our minds. My wife was next to get weary of the prepping, the waiting, the continued market manipulation, watching with helplessness the political slide toward socialism. 

We reached a decision after a friend was murdered. I found him in his basement, shot in the back of the head--execution style. He was killed for his coin collection by a heroin addict who had done some clean-up work at his house. After a night of interrogation as suspects in the murder, my wife and I felt a deepening recognition that “We weren’t from ‘round those parts.” We wanted out. It was the last straw. Leaving to go back West (home) seemed advisable.

We received a job offer out west and moved in 2013. We found and purchased a townhome close to the University campus where I worked. Real estate was still relatively cheap, so we started looking for a real bug out property (hadn’t quite completed the rethinking yet). We found something suitable and purchased it. But being a working guy, we had to rent it out to pay for itself, wondering if we’d be able to get the renters out when the fateful day came. We still have it, but have determined that it is not an ideal property for self-sustenance.

Five years have passed. And with those years has come blend of relief and confusion--relief that the economy still functions, that we can still buy Cheetos at the grocery store and $17 silver, but confusion about why it was all still possible. Where was the collapse? Had we been wrong this whole time? Were the bankers and politicians actually going to succeed in holding this world economy together? Who’s the fool now?

A recent series of articles by “High Desert” posted at ZH, confirmed that our growing reservations about bugging out were justified. The emotional toll that would be too high for us to pay. After reading the three part series (12 & 3), and admitting that the world economy still functions, I felt relieved that we had not sold all and pioneered on 20 acres in the wilderness as I had hoped.

Several weeks ago, we received a glimpse into our future as my wife’s mom’s primary caregivers when she became ill. In her weakened state she fell down and laid on the floor for several hours, unable to get up until her sister stopped by to check on her. We learned she had fallen three times that day. My wife stayed with her for a week nursing her back to health. We are staring at an unpleasant reality. We talked at length and recognized the need for a change in outlook. As answers became clearer, we have altered our plans toward something that retained a semblance of normal life—a lifestyle that prospered in our current economy, but could make a smooth transition to a crappy one.

Thus, we purchased land in a small town 45 miles from my employer, next door to wifey’s mom, and plan to relocate before her health permanently declines. We will stay prepped (food, etc) but will focus on gardening and off grid living. (Just to clarify, It was not my dream to live next door to my, um, mother-in-law.)

We will be ready for a depression, prepping & gardening in plain sight, but living a relatively normal life as long as we can. And if, as we have all feared, the economy totally collapses, this neighborhood appears to have a critical mass of people who will pull together for survival, people good at gardening and animal husbandry. We actually know most of our neighbors already and the rest wave regularly. It is not the perfect property on which to build, but it has advantages due to location--additional nearby relatives, many commercial farms, and a retirement economy that provides business opportunities for my wife. The land is fertile with irrigation rights secured. Well water is shallow and the warm southwest weather provides two growing seasons.

Over the next four months, I’d like to chronicle this adventure, publishing a series of articles here that describe the pitfalls and joys of building the “dream property.” Perhaps you might glean some useful data (mostly learning from my mistakes) to steer your own lives one direction or another. I, hopefully, might receive some advice that will lessen the cost and ease the process.

We have done a lot of work already: designing a home, testing soil density, certifying an existing septic system, survey completed, and working on formal blueprints. My recent hand injury has slowed down the plan, but has also directed us toward working with contractors since I will be unable to perform trades that require a healthy body. There is much to be done to satisfy the city & county building departments. While it would be easy to hire a contractor and simply write a check, that check would certainly bounce. Serving as our own general contractor saves a ton of fiat and provides the ability to stretch out the process, enabling us to pay as we go.

I have drawn blueprints with the aid of some good software. But here my skills fall short as I need to hire an architect/engineer to make certifications to please the authorities.

So here we go. I’ll endeavor to continue the soap opera each week as the process unfolds.

40 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks, Doc

MODERATOR

Always appreciate your efforts in support of TFMR!

bikerdoc's picture

Hi Doc,

Thank you for sharing your experience. I had to give up a nice place like you did after finding many undesirable characters in that area. A bug out place is an insurance that we shouldn't plan to use unless it is a critical matter. Hope the best, but prepare for the worst. Wish you and family all of the best outcome.

SS121's picture

my .02 re: your questions. . .

Five years have passed. And with those years has come blend of relief and confusion-- relief that the economy still functioning and we can still buy Cheetos at the grocery store and $17 silver, but confusion about why it was all still possible. Where was the collapse?

my .02:  Who said there was going to be an economic collapse?? The fear mongering media.  Don't let the media control you/your narrative.

Had we been wrong this whole time?

Yes, the media and all it's "experts" that fail to grasp the simple fundamental realities of the situation will always lead you astray, and then you will be afflicted. (if you continue to listen to them)

Were the bankers and politicians actually going to succeed in holding this world economy together?

They gotcha again.  They taught you that bankers and politicians are what makes the world go 'round.

Who’s the fool now?

Those who return to their folly, like dogs returning to their vomit.

Again, this just my .02 in answer to your questions, but i say turn off the tube, quit reading ZH and listening to those who profit by promoting confusion and go out and enjoy your day!  then repeat. 

next time the good idea fairy whispers to prep, ask "for what?"  and then look around for a crisis.   If you don't see one, go back to enjoying your day!

end .02

Dr Jerome's picture

ss121

Thanks. We all need to keep a solid perspective. Indeed, I have cut back my ZH reading, just skimming headlines these days. Good to hear from you.  By the way, I hate eating vomit!

chocolatechiphorses's picture

Dr J

Looking forward to learning more from your experiences as you so generously share them with everyone here at TFMR.  

Thank you for all your efforts.   I hope your injury heals quickly.  

CCH

TF Metals fan's picture

Thanks Doc

For putting up this series. Enjoy your new place and your mother-in-law. She will want to keep her daughter happy so you will be fine. 

Ned Braden's picture

ss121

Superb commentary, ss121, although none of us realized the extent of the criminal behaviors and bending of rules that evolved to help contain the 2008 GFC. However the math is the math and QE to infinity won't work; the ultimate question is how long till event horizon.

pennywise's picture

Looking forward to your chronicles

I enjoyed reading your story, I guess because your thought process, fed by the news and chatter of the time, parallels our own somewhat. We went so far as to start looking for bug out places but when silver crashed we backed off the plan and decided to do all we could where we currently live. Like you, we have family members that need us (I just spent the last two years helping my mother who passed from ovarian cancer in March) and so we decided to do the best we could with what we had. It’s not ideal, especially for aging in place, but it’s semi-rural, and we realized we had a lot of resources close by that were pretty great including, most importantly, a network of friends that are like family. We converted our yard into several raised beds and grow vegetables, made connections so we can purchase grass fed and organic beef, pork and chicken in bulk,  and ramped up our food storage by adding a freezer, purchasing a  freeze dryer and canning. For the last few years all of this and following the PMs and world economic affairs has absorbed our thoughts and our time. I’m glad for the new knowledge and skills but in some ways feel we’ve been too consumed by it all.  I am more prone to prepper fatigue than my husband and I am looking for ways to stay engaged but positive. The anticipation of reading about your experience and maybe participating in the discussion sparks some enthusiasm. Thank you!

aucontraire's picture

"how long till event horizon" ??

Answer: As long as it takes for the laws of thermodynamics to take over....and then, maybe things end not with a bang but with with a whimper. 

Summer 2013 was the key for me. I had started investing in the PMs in 2000. In 2011 I believed there would be a ..temporary" top. In 2013 I also believed that the PM bull would assert itself. After all, there are always corrections and after 1.5 to 2 years there was ample time for things to get started again. When TPTB slammed the metals hard in 2013 I realized that "they" were going to "stop" the next bull run and strangle the metals....and so they have been kept just above the mining cost for 5 years now. I came to the conclusion that I would keep my physical, sell my PM stocks and invest in other asset classes that I could make a profit in. The choices were: Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Commodities, Precious metals

( which I would accumulate the physical but shun the derivatives ), and the newcomer,  Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ether...all trading at about $ 250 / $4.00 and $6.00 respectively. 

Since I don't know when the laws of thermodynamics will reassert themselves and I really don't know stocks, bonds and real estate ( except my own house and neighborhood ) I opted for the Crypto sector while the metals sleep. 

Now I don't have to watch the metals constantly and I can sleep well and most importantly, I can proceed to live my life. 

All we can do is speculate on various scenarios, assign a % chance of occurrence of each and proceed to live accordingly.  What I learned most the last 5 years is not to listen to others when I can determine the best scenario for myself. After all, who cares the most about me, than me....... 

cyclemadman's picture

Government Intrusion

The fact that you have to please county and city officials to build your own house on your own property is part of what has gone wrong with this country.

Are those officials taking on the liability of the quality and safety of the construction of the home? No way, just try and get the government to take responsibility for anything. They sure don't hesitate to force you to add products and systems to your home with dubious benefits that add tangible costs. 

silver10sguy's picture

An Excellent Post Sir

Your story is quite remarkable with the challenges of daily life vs the "collapse" we all expect at some point in the future.  Under Hillary Clinton's tyranny I did not expect to survive unless perhaps I moved to another country.  Under President Trump I still have hope for the future, rule of law, and our country.  The collapse I envisioned earlier I thought could include total chaos but now I am just hoping for a new monetary system.  The gradual effect of the yuan/oil/gold and crypto currencies makes me believe there is a new system being built over time including arrests of the Deep State.  My paradigm hopefully will see more truth and big changes this year or I will be greatly disappointed and plan accordingly. 

Green Lantern's picture

Dr. Jerome I enjoyed your

Dr. Jerome I enjoyed your post.  SS121 I enjoyed your reply.  

Five years have passed. And with those years has come blend of relief and confusion-- relief that the economy still functioning and we can still buy Cheetos at the grocery store and $17 silver, but confusion about why it was all still possible. Where was the collapse?

my .02:  Who said there was going to be an economic collapse?? The fear mongering media.  Don't let the media control you/your narrative.

SS121, You are correct. We repeat what other people say.  If we didn’t have the skill to predict the future, do we have better skills to choose those we listen to?

The media who was selling an economic collapse (whatever that means to you) were mostly the ones that had something to sell you.   BUT, I think it’s a less of a case of being wrong, and more of a case that everybody was too early to the party.     This is where I would type a long post stating my case for the best is yet to come, if I hadn’t done it already in the dark corridors of the forums.  And so have others.  

Had we been wrong this whole time?

Yes, the media and all it's "experts" that fail to grasp the simple fundamental realities of the situation will always lead you astray, and then you will be afflicted. (if you continue to listen to them)

Dr. J.  On somethings yes. And other things no.  SS121.  I don’t know what you refer to when you refer to simple fundamental realizes of the situation.  What situation? What fundamentals?   What was wrong?  I think most of you will be wrong about what the future holds for the markets, and the dollar, but not gold.  But since most of you are invested in gold, you’ll have your day.   That’s another long post. 

Were the bankers and politicians actually going to succeed in holding this world economy together?

They gotcha again.  They taught you that bankers and politicians are what makes the world go 'round.

SS121 got that right. Sorry voters.   However, they are certainly influencing the stock market. And their pumping is becoming less effective for now. 

Debt driven growth is a worldwide problem, probably worse in China, EMEs, much of Europe.  Cannot go on to infinity.  At some point a dramatic crash, reset, leverage unwind, wealth redistribution...List of possibilities all painful.  

Who’s the fool now?

Those who return to their folly, like dogs returning to their vomit.

Again, this just my .02 in answer to your questions, but i say turn off the tube, quit reading ZH and listening to those who profit by promoting confusion and go out and enjoy your day!  then repeat. 

next time the good idea fairy whispers to prep, ask "for what?"  and then look around for a crisis.   If you don't see one, go back to enjoying your day!

Good advice SS121 for all seasons.  I don’t have a tv.  Don’t read ZH regularly only if a story comes to my attention.  

However,  I like the study of politics and the study of markets and economies even when everybody else is bored by it.  It’s all psychology and I love observing human behavior.   

For instance, Dr J's post  is a low sentiment post. The pictures in the groups head is different than the reality they expected.  It doesn't mean things are pretty because there aren't mobs of people putting up tents on your front law.  

I pay close attention to such things as low sentiment posts. I noticed a lot of low sentiment and apathy around this party.  Maybe when the crowd stops paying attention, it's a good time to start paying close attention?    I know the kind of stories that gets people interested.  It shouldn't be that way, but it is. .   

Just a note on gold.  I’m not a person that appreciates listening to others yell buy, buy, buy, without any regard for price.  

However, Be careful with the idea that gold is performing poorly given the US dollar decline. I am much more partial to the theory it is performing extraordinarily well given the rise in yields.  And becareful looking at Gold vs dollar.  Gold has established new partnerships that are more important. 

I'd also would be very very careful with taking past results and projecting it into the future and thinking that the next 7 years are going to look anything like the last 7 years.  

A few of us eccentric nut balls have been looking at the future under a magnifying glass on the other side.  And most of what we talk about IS NOT in the media.  

.   

Montross515's picture

An excellent post.  My

An excellent post.  My observations, for what they are worth.

1. 150 years ago large numbers of people lived in the midwest, without electricity and all the confusions it brings. It is a different way to live without air conditioning. A quarter acre will produce food for a family of four. They were happy and healthy.

2. You can easily lay in 10 years of hardware supplies from thrift stores for little money.

3. You can find an older home needing some things and make it better than a new home, and for 25% of the cost, and close to zero hassles.

4. Worst comes to worst you have to shoot or stab to death anyone trying to threaten your family. I am in Nicaragua, but the basics do not change. If you live around alot of corn no one will probably be starving to death, but either someone defends your family, or no one does. I would meditate on that point till you are clear. If you won’t kill, why prep?

3. 

3

SS121's picture

Ned- 2008 GFC, Event Horizon

Ned, this is just my opinion but i think you misunderstand the reality of the situation you were presented with during the chart moves and media presentations known as the 2008 GCF.

Consider what Bernie Madoff's clients thought when he was able to navigate the troubled investing waters of big stock market chart drops and still deliver them their yearly profits.  ...according to the statements he presented to them.

- - - 

Correct me if i'm mistaken, but when you watch for an event horizon you mean you are watching ZH and CNBC etc.. stories, and listening to chart "experts" who all produce and promote the markets as being legitimate entities and are waiting expectantly for one of the many many many many media narratives of market "kaboom" to actually really happen.  Yes?

This always reminds me of the show Gilligan's Island.  The show where Gilligan and the skipper and a few other folks all got stranded on a little island somewhere.   Most episodes included some opportunity or effort for them to be rescued or somehow get back to civilization, but then there was always failure and they stayed on the island until the next episode.  

If they had actually gotten off of the island the show would have ended and that would have ruined everything.   So the writers and producers of the show never ended their own show from within, (like Bernie did).

The last episode of the show, "Gilligan the Goddess", aired on April 17, 1967, and ended just like the rest, with the castaways still stranded on the island. It was not known at the time that it would be the series finale, as a fourth season was expected but then cancelled.[6] (from wikip...)

It's not likely, imo, that any of the market crash episodes are ever going to be fatal either.  But the show itself will end. 

I talk about Monetary cycles and how the replacement for Silver and Gold always goes away with Silver and Gold returning to their monetary role in the hearts and minds of real live people, and people often don't (almost never) get it because they think I am describing this event within the context of the system's "markets".  I am not.

My analysis if from within the context of reality.  R-E-A-L-I-T-Y.  What is the silver chart really? what is the USD Index really?  What are all USD denominated currencies really?  What two monetary metals have always been naturally seen as money by human beings except for those times when their minds are temporarily deceived into believing in and using a monetary substitute.  . . . which always fails? 

All simple stuff, stuff we can easily see and understand unless reality is so foreign that it's consideration triggers a mortifying reflexive dismissal and quick return to the false comfort of the ole monthly Bernie Madoff statements.

Now let's talk about the event horizon.  But event horizon implies that some type of turn around before reaching event horizon might prevent the inevitable so let's try and instead look for milestones to the inevitable. 

I would opine from everything that I have seen and understand that the silver chart losing it's position as the single price reference for physical Silver transactions among human beings will be a major milestone.

That is why the events of 2012? or was it 2013?  ...when the descending silver chart first ran into the downside demand increase threshold, are so significant.   It was a major blow to the silver charts capability to CONTROL the masses.   It was like a tiny stream of water shooting through a giant dam miles upstream while the town below sets glued to their t.v. sets watching Gilligan's Island. But it happened.

And I said then that the silver chart was stuck and would remain in this range between the Upside and Downside Demand increase thresholds until -speculation- there is a play against the USD as the world's currency standard.  Not 'World Reserve Currency', that's more Gilligan's Island nonsense that means nothing. 

The silver chart losing it's ability to control the prices of the physical Silver transactions between real live human beings.  It's in the works.

Fred Hayek's picture

Math is inescapable

The unfunded liabilities of the U.S. gov't are estimated to be anywhere from $100 Trillion with a T to over $200 Trillion. 

The math of living up to those obligations is simply impossible for an economy that is purported, by risible GDP statistics, to measure $17 or 18 Trillion per year. 

TPTB have avoided a collapse so far but other nations, such as China and Russia, have no interest in helping the U.S. spread inflation around to the rest of the world to try to meet those impossible obligations. 

It's not bravado or doom porn to say that a collapse or life altering reset is inevitable. 

This is like you're playing jenga and you are somehow committed to taking 20 pieces out of the bottom foot of the tower.  But there are only 16 pieces in the bottom foot of the tower.  You tell the other players that it's impossible and one starts to razz you after two pieces have been removed saying, "See?  No problem!"  The tower will fall.  Math is inescapable.  Physics is inescapable. 

AGXIIK's picture

An addition to the note about rising national and global debt

The US GDP might, repeat, might be increasing $1 trillion a year.

US debt is now on track to increase at least $1.5 trillion, potentially $2 trillion a year.   

World GDP is around $77 trillion, increasing at approx 2.7% a year or $2 trillion roughly. Stats are not well defined on that

Global debt is $23o trillion, having increased around $15 trillion each of the last 2 years.  

Global debt is roughly 200% of global GDP

There are conflicting stats that say global debt to GDP is 300%, depending on the correct calculations of global GDP, a figure tough to acquire.

But when it take $4.50 of new debt to produce $1 of new GDP, there will come a time when debt becomes completely useless, detached from anything remotely resembling a useful purpose,  because all it will create is the most massive collateral call in human history.  

With the exception of creating the greatest transfer of wealth to people already wealthy beyond imagining,  on a planet with the greatest debt burden imaginable, laid on the poorest 99.99% of people on earth, completing a century-long process of debt penury,  the final iteration of debt will end up creating nothing tangible except misery.

Will the last borrower of the last dollar please turn off the lights.

petedivine's picture

The collapse has already

The collapse has already started and manifests itself in many ways. For example the American obesity rate is around 36% of the U.S. population. People might assume Americans are eating too much but fail to recognize the root cause. They might see obesity as a sign of prosperity. However, obesity is caused by poor diet. The cheapest foods are high calorie, high corn syrup, low nutritional value. The low nutrition causes people to crave and consume more leading to obesity, diabetes, and several other illnesses. I was in Venezuela several years before the collapse and was surprised by the number of obese people almost everywhere I looked. 

What you’re really preparing for is a system collapse. From the moment we enter grade school to the moment we leave college we’re trained to work within the system. We don’t even recognize it. The best and the brightest are the people most capable of managing and manipulating the system. Those people go on to great careers in government and big business. They are system people. All of us are system people to some extent. Even after the system took a fatal hit in 2008 the system carried on. It will carry on until the system people cannot maintain its momentum then and only then do I expect the system to crash. At this point the system is loosing momentum. Like a jet plane that has run out of fuel at 35,000 feet. It can coast and glide until it looses forward momentum then it comes crashing down. Venezuela was very similar. Twenty five years ago, I remember walking down the avenues of shops, restaurants, filled with healthy people engaged in life. I use to visit Venezuela every few years. Over the years I started to notice the buildings and roads were not maintained, the shops were starting to board up, and the people started getting fat. One day you stop visiting because your family worries you might be kidnapped and held for ransom. Then you realize the system collapsed. What Venezuela has now is a system run by thugs pillaging the carcass of the previous system. Look around and you will notice that we are well on our way.

CONSTANTINE's picture

SS121

SS121,

So back from the mountain bearing tablets of stone? I am watching you.

CONSTANTINE

J Siefert's picture

Thanks Doc

An excellent report and a bunch of mostly good comments on the thread. yes

bently's picture

Trump threatens EU he'll retaliate with something "very big."

Thank you for sharing your story. It is inspiring to see your closeness, loyalty and good deeds to your family. You are truly living a value-driven life. Very admirable. Reading your story also shows that, while definitive answers to the big picture may continue to elude us, we should take advantage of any time we still have. And, do so by taking small steps week by week to put ourselves in a better and more secure position than we've been. I think you may be further along that path than many in Turdville and, certainly, much further than the population in general.  Thanks for your "leadership" in the best respect.

With respect and friendship...

Bently

bently's picture

My post was meant for Dr. Jerome

Not sure how that subject title got on there...

silver10sguy's picture

Good Article on the Car Market Collapse

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-05/death-great-recovery-part-2-second-coming-carmageddon

The numbers for the American car industry and car loans are really bad and should continue to get worse.   I see some of my neighbors buying new cars and my first thought is how much physical silver or Litecoin could have been purchased otherwise.  Politically or economically everyone is so clueless regarding the state of the monetary system and our past leaders.  Events that are unfolding continue to make me believe we are gradually evolving into a new system that will include gold, silver, and crypto currencies.  

AGXIIK's picture

Dr Jerome Your article was both timely

and important to those who've invested much time, emotional energy and scarce personal funds into prepping.  Years ago I jumped on the prepper train.  Looking back, it was more time and funds than I could afford but we made it work for us, following the guidelines of others and creating a few personal ones.  Most find that being in a state of preparedness is emotionally draining, worried about then the wolf will be at the door; when the crash will come and how we'll deal with it.  It's like preparing for war in a time of peace. 

History tells us there will always be a time of war or privation, economic difficulties or other events that force us to reassess our situation and move out of harm's way.   It's easy to miss the signals and end up hammered.  It's also easy for those who think long and hard about their family's survival to end up over preparing.  

I think it's safe to say that we're 2-3 generations from the time when people were self reliant yet part of a community that concerned itself with the well being of other.  People stored and stocked for the lean years, knowing those cycles intimately.   It wasn't called prepping; it was called being prepared. It was a normal part of life, not a lifestyle. Most residents of western civilization have moved away from the cycles that affected the generations past; the cycles that compelled them to set aside for winter or years when crop yields were low and the farms hit rough  time.   

In moving away from the natural cycles that drive us and our world,  we've grown fat and complacent, used to having everything available at our fingertips;  a 25 cu ft fridge filled to the brim with food; all conveniences within 10 minute drive, a phone call or an  1 hour Amazon drone drop away. 

Our obesity is only matched by our impatience with having everything  right now,  including 5,000  empty calories ready for the consuming with no more preparation than a flash heat in the microwave or 30 minutes is super fast roaster oven. I plead guilty of those sins even though 5,000 calories is no longer part of the menu.  

The hubris of thinking that all these ultra conveniences will continue says we think we've conquered nature and human nature.  Maybe temporarily,  but the cycles will come back and bite us in the ass, much like the residents of that balmy palm tree filled community at the foot of Pele thought their idyllic life in paradise was forever.  

It reminds me of the Richard Pryor line when he caught fire smoking crack. In his drug soaked state of (un)consciousness, part of him started screaming   FIRE!  as he ran down the street like a blazing human shaped meteorite

LAVA!

That's just one iteration of Mother Earth telling us we are way out of balance to nature

Excuse my musing, it's still O dark 30 and my morning flash fix of french pressed caffiend awaits me.

PS Hat tips to SS121, Green Lantern and Pete Divine who's comments today and yesterday about prepping, the price of precious metals and petroleum and present day obesity,to mention a few things discussed, aroused my interest.  In an attempt to respond to how PM prices might rise, I lost a medium length commentary yesterday. 

In brief, if the price of petroleum moves back from its low of $35-ish a barrel to $70, it's position today,  as it struggles  to rebound to its mean price, it could easily overshoot the $100 barrel price of a few years back.  

If it breaks upwards to a price well over $100, overshooting it's mean price that assures profitable production, the precious metals mining industry will be in the most serious of troubles.  The cost of mining will rise to the point where production ceases as miners cannot afford to dig.  This will press supply down when demand moves up due to the inflationary pressure of petroleum on every good and service.  That event alone might bring renewed faith to the preppers that the end is nigh but it will make life really harsh when we see $6 a gallon gasoline.

silver10sguy.   It's with stark wonderment that I see parking lots filled with  brand new $50-75,000  plus Mercedes, Audis, Rams, F100s and all kinds of automotive bling.  It makes my 13 year old SUV look like a dinosaur.   What's even more astonishing is the land whales that exit these 4 wheeled 5 figure handicapped scooters.  I'm no svelte example of Porkulus Americanibus but dang; these folks make me jump back to avoid being crushed underfoot.  Don't cross their path to the Doritos rack at the local Piggly Wiggly.

Aw crap Green Lantern . Solar weather??!!  Just when I ran out of SPF 5000.   SUN!!!!!!!!

Cheers

Green Lantern's picture

FIRE!!!!!!!!

FIRE!!!!!!!!  LAVA!!!!!!!!!!

Geomagnetic storm hits Kp6 now.

Massive solar storm expected to hit earth today, tech blackout possible: All you need to know

https://www.indiatvnews.com/science/news-massive-solar-storm-expected-to-hit-earth-today-tech-blackout-possible-all-you-need-to-know-440920

sengfarmer's picture

Rickards

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-04/money-gold-and-nothing-else

In this article Rickards talks about the loss of confidence in the dollar both foreign and domestic. He then goes on to say:

"That loss of confidence will not happen in a vacuum. It will coincide with a more general loss of confidence in all central banks and reserve currencies. This loss of confidence will be exacerbated by  MALICIOUS EFFORTS on the part of Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and others to abandon the dollars entirely and to bypass the US dollars system."

I capitalized the words MALICIOUS EFFORTS  wouldn't the words SELF PRESERVATION EFFORTS be more apt?

Thank you Dr. J for getting this thread going. Many excellent posts that lay out the groundwork for a look toward the future.

silver10sguy's picture

Growth Projections for Coinbase Crypto Business

If the collapse is planned to gradually wean ourselves off of the dollar then crypto and gold/silver may be our future.  Check out this article on the growth projections for Coinbase.  Amazing!!!

https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/05/05/coinbase-prepares-increase-trading-raising-transaction-capacity-1000

Katie Rose's picture

Steve Quayle scared the living crap out of us

Steve Quayle scared the living crap out of us about 10 years ago. We thought the collapse was just around the corner. I was selling real estate at the time and had a client who was making me a lot of money.

I didn't know about long term food storage so I ran off to COSTCO and bought $5000 worth of food. I bought it because I thought the collapse was imminent. It is nearly all rancid now.

So I have prepper fatigue as well.

There are a few things I have learned.

The best thing I have spent money on is my Cub Cadet Zero Turn Riding Mower.  It is very superior to the Craftsman Lawn Tractor Riding Mower we purchased when we moved over here. I listened to folks who had riding mowers and got the smallest blade size available in the Cub Cadet mower.

Last summer I had 20 acres of waist high grass and fire season was beginning with a fire less than 2 miles away. The Cub Cadet mowed the entire property without a hitch.

Every month I am purchasing silver. I am hoping I will have enough to see me well through retirement. And I am replacing my rancid food with long term food storage.

The economy has not crashed, yet. That doesn't mean it won't crash at some point. I have learned my lesson. I am not going to get freaked out about it....

Winder's picture

Never actually

looked at what Harry Dent is pushing, but here ya go. Hmm...Gold bad, Dollar good. Stable prices bad, inflation good. Some other gems in there for just $49 you get the whole enchilada.

https://pro.dentresearch.com/p/SLAW2016/PBNBTA17/?h=true

Winder's picture

BTW

total economic crash in 9 months or less he says :O

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