Euro Crush

Thu, Jun 23, 2011 - 9:56am

A nasty flight from the euro is causing selling in everything today. Pretty brutal stuff. Isn't it amazing how things can change in just 24 hours?

All we can do on days like these are just sit back and take it. There are, however, some important levels to watch, most significantly in gold. After successfully repelling gold from the 1550 level again, The Cartel caught a break this morning with the near-panic Euro selling. The gold chart is in danger of ruining the uptrend from January. It has broken the trendline before but only briefly. If it continues to move lower and doesn't rebound by tomorrow, the chart will finally have taken on the "summer doldrum", rangebound look that I've been expecting. Of course, being right about that doesn't bring back the dough I blew on the August 1550 calls I bought on Tuesday. I end up feeling like Daniel-san..squished like grape.

Squish Like Grape (karate kid)


For the degenerate gamblers out there (such as myself), there may be a trade opportunity in silver (which I won't be making). Silver is approaching the lower end of the pennant from the lows of early May. I have a last of 35.31 and the line appears to be right near 35.


And crude is worth following today, too. Yesterday I gave up on the idea of a quick rebound back above 96 in favor of a potential base building exercise near and above 89.50-90. Looks like I'm going to get a chance to see if I'm right as crude has a last of 90.50.


OK, that's it for now. Let's just sit back and watch to see how the rest of this day plays out. If you haven't yet taken the time, perhaps today would be a good day to check out the forums. Lots and lots of good, user-provider information there. Remember, though you have to be a member (signing up is simple and free) to post and comment, anyone and everyone can lurk, read and learn. I highly encourage you to do so. Oh, and if you read something particularly helpful, be sure to give the writer a "hat tip" by clicking in the little yellow hat icon in the upper right hand corner of each post.

Thanks for stopping by. Hang in there. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


SilverTree · Jun 23, 2011 - 9:58am
Sterling · Jun 23, 2011 - 9:58am

SilverTree is a sniper! 

SilverTree is a sniper! Damn!

Shill · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:02am


  1. 10:00a


    Sales of new homes slip 2.1% in May

  2. 10:00a

    Median May new-home price $222.6K, -3.4% yr-on-yr

  3. 10:00a

    April new-home sales revised up to 326,000

  4. 10:00a

    May new-home sales slip 2.1% to 319,000

  5. 10:00a

    Record low supply of new homes on market

Alert: Greek Finance Minister to Hold Press Conference Today
* Could be a market mover. The schedule time for the press conference has not yet been announced. *

ECB Web Site Down
The European Central Bank web site has been down for over an hour.

HT: [EPJ](

SilverTree Shill · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:03am


Thanks Shill!

Bull · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:05am



tending or threatening to break out into open violence; explosive

Violent Rhetoric · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:06am

When the head of a central

When the head of a central bank tells the truth like Trichet did with his risk signals are "red" comment stuff like this happens.

Of could this could turn when a pretend and extend deal is struck. Maybe Trichet wanted the citizens of Europe to get a taste of what could happen if they do not turn themselves into debt masters. Of course the final meltdown will be worse with a pretend and extend deal, but hey he gets the limo and fancy hotels in the short term.

DefiniteMaybe · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:07am

Feeling Your Pain


I feel you pain man. I got out of my SPY shorts two days too early. Not only did I lose money when I got out, I am missing out on huge profits today. (Deep sigh.)

Right now, I expect the miners to follow the SP500 on the way down for awhile. That is, a GDX of around 46. I should have stuck with my initial analysis that this market was headed for the dumpster. The last week has been a case of buy the rumor and sell the news. The expectation was that Benny would make an announcement of QEIII (aka the war on the dollar part III). When that didn't happen the market sold off and will continue to sell off.

Just my two copper clads worth.


BillAuAg · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:09am

Discouraging as it is, this

Discouraging as it is, this is weather, not climate.

None of the fundamentals has changed and only the cliff draws closer.

bigmark99 · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:11am

Bad move by Barry

Barry should have never let go of 30 million barrels. 

Sterling · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:11am

BillAuAg - I like that

BillAuAg - I like that phrase. Mind if I use it?

ScottJ · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:12am

Raid to Protect Euro Gold Closing?

Many of us wake up and find the US Price of gold to be dramatically down in a straight line and think "damn JP Morgan or EE," why the struggle? Well, I think it is noteworth to look across the pond and notice that Euro Gold (remember gold&silver are safe-havens against all fiat currencies) was trading as high as 1083 Euros/Oz of Gold before the raid happened. The all time high closing price of gold priced in Euros is 1083.74. I am thinking that today's raid was more about controlling other major currency denomination price of gold (with the positive side effect of pushing the "transitory inflation" Bernanke was just mentioning. People will look to confirm what the authority figure had said by noticing lower crude (gas) prices, so the perception management team is winning today).

If Euro Gold was to just casually close at an all time (nominal) high on a random Thursday, you know there will be a raid to prevent this from happening.

Just throwing this perspective out there, as the "EE" are controlling all prices of gold, and not just the US price of gold as many of us focus on (and try to profit on).

Here is the Price of Euro Gold over the last 3 days, and then the last one year.

Chris · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:12am

Marc Faber being..well...Marac Faber

Marc Faber sees possible downtrend in precious metals over the next few months but still a buyer of gold.

Shill · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:14am
DefiniteMaybe · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:19am

Slamming Crude

 It looks light a concerted, and most likely coordinated, effort to take down the price of crude. Both the IEA and the SPR are planning to release oil into the market from their respective reserves. Looks like WTI will test 90 then drop below it. Is this an effort by TPTB to take down commodities in order to pave the way for an announcement of some version of QE3 in August? Like, an announcement after the Central Banksters meet in Jackson Hole, WY? Something smelly blows this way, and I don't think it's me this time...


ginger · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:23am

Does Marc Faber

..have a PONYTAIL in back? LOL.

Ok. Doesn't fit his face from the front. I have never noticed that before. What a character.

You know. What I am struck with is that nobody really knows what the heck metals are going to do this Summer. Half the experts say 'summer doldrums' and the other half say 'not business as usual' for the Summer.

I guess you just have to pick a side and hope for the best ..depending on your perspective of what the best outcome would be. indecision

silver_hunter · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:25am

Understanding the game is vital

Like I said in the early thread, understanding how the game is played is extremely important to make money in this rigged market.

I shorted oil yesterday when Oil is above 95, I added short position of general market when S&P reached 1296. This morning I reaped the reward.

Remember the government complains about oil is too high? too much speculation? The EE have plenty of dirty tricks to play. Just watch out and keep alert. Put yourself in EE's shoe, then act accordingly. Thus you will not lose money instead prosper.

Strike when the odds is on your favour. Patience and Discipline.


caramel · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:26am

many expected some sort of

many expected some sort of deflationary period, perhaps for the world to beg for another round of money printing, perhaps cover for the politicians for agreeing to raise the debt ceiling. No reason to believe this won't continue in the short term, the trend has reversed and red days seem to be here. Recall as we all looked at amazement at the # of green days notwithstanding the bombardment of bad news. Guess it was a bull market. Now bad news seems to be really bad news and signs of a bear market are here.

Expect Gold & Silver to drift down no?

Larry · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:30am

Tragic Comedy

If the heartless, blatant and audacious manipulation of oil, metals, commodities and currencies were not so ruinous to so many innocent, hard working people, particularly those living in the third world, it would be a comedy. Over and over. Until the criminals steal every dime they can. Until the end.

Gotta also feel for the innocent yet naive investors too that are learning the lessons that, sooner or later, we all learn. Fresh happy longs with too-close stops get a haircut or worse. Caveat emptor y'all. The you can carpe diem later.

And for the salt of the earth folks:

bigmark99 · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:30am

This is why business will not

This is why business will not spend money, they don't know what the govt will do next. 

tmosley · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:35am

Increasing volatility?

Increasing volatility? Check.

Decreasing paper price? Check.

Rapidly depleting COMEX silver inventory? Check.

Rising COMEX silver OI? Check.

C F · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:35am

IEA Says It Will Tap Crude

IEA Says It Will Tap Crude Reserves....whatever that means. 

Probabaly means crude will be dropping like a rock.

¤ · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:37am

OPEC Pissed Off!

I just wrote in the Energy forum about the IEA and the Saudi's and OPEC regarding the pricing of oil and this just comes out.

They are pissed off that the IEA dumped/promised that much to the market and drove the price down. Can you imagine how much anticipated revenue evaporated from OPEC balance sheets??? Sure their pissed off!

That skirmish I mentioned just went up a notch to hostilities. How long will it take before OPEC/Saudi's make a announcement in retaliation (production cut) besides the one they just made about being pissed.

It's about to get real interesting in the crude market. This IEA action today comes on the heels of OPEC's announcement two weeks ago not to increase production.

My forum post in "Energy" states what I think is going on regarding crude and MOPE. This downturn in the price of crude (and PM's) won't last long.

Chris ginger · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:37am

ponytail confirmed.

If you go back and see older videos he has had one for quite some time.

As to the conflicts between everyone it seems they are relegated to short term uncertainty which will affect those who trade but long term they are all pretty much arm in arm stating precious metals bull market is in full effect.

BillAuAg Sterling · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:40am

The metaphore is your to use.

The metaphore is your to use.

Shill · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:42am

Last one out the exit

Is an Elephants / Ass. The clueless masses won't know what hit them

Key Republican quits budget talks over impasse - MarketWatch

33 and a turd · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:45am
Larry · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:45am

Trading and War

SilverTree, that was a blast from the past. Ah, the good ol' days trading $44k/100 oz gold contracts on the Comex floor. I wasn't there but it's quite a contrast between the traders then (Stayin' Alive garb and all) and the pasty geeks that sit in the basement and wait for HFT instructions that decimate the market.

The ads were a hoot too.

Trading has gotten to be inhumane, like war. One button pushed, one bomb dropped from a hundred miles away and thousands can be killed and maimed.

caramel · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:45am

good point DPH.  These oil

good point DPH. These oil producing countries are obviously upset that they're receiving ever more worthless USD's that buy less & less, hence they need/want a higher USD oil price to offset the continued devaluation.

Of course, this could also be like the 70's where an oil crisis provided some cover for ridiculously high inflation.

WillieJackBrownLee SilverTree · Jun 23, 2011 - 10:46am


Zeppelin ruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuules!

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Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
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11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
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