Guest Post: A Look Ahead To 2018 from James Gibson

62
Wed, Dec 27, 2017 - 11:13am

With all the recent talk of the death of the petrodollar, and the rise of the petroyuan, with the possibility of the Chinese yuan eventually assuming the mantle of the world’s premier reserve currency, I thought that Turdites might be interested in an extract from my book: FROM WEST TO EAST: The Greatest Transfer of Power and Wealth in the History of Mankind


This particular subject matter is covered in greater detail in the book, particularly the pros and cons, but it should give Turdites a flavour of what might lie further down the road, as the global dominance of financial and economic power gradually passes from the USA to China.


I have thought about producing a second edition of my book, updating it by incorporating recent developments, but decided against it, because predictions made in the book are now increasingly beginning to unfold, and I wish the contents of the book to stand, and going forward, recognized as being prescient.


For those Turdites that have not yet purchased the book, I believe it is a worthwhile purchase, as it becomes more relevant by the month, and ties together many apparently diverse and seemingly unconnected events, which are shown to very much linked, and part of a very carefully prepared, long term plan to create a One World Currency, and a One World Government. But a world which none of us would willingly choose to adopt.


The Chinese-Russian bloc have regularly lobbied the G20 since 2008, to have them agree to, and draw up, the basis for sweeping reforms to the current international financial system. Such reforms should not only address the symptoms, but also the root causes of the current, challenging, financial and economic problems being faced by the world, which includes the acceptance of a multipolar world, rather than the current USA dominated unipolar world. The USA obviously strenuously seeks to maintain and defend the current status quo.


In my opinion, it is not worth worrying about events over which one has no control. However, the book should provide food for thought as to how one might minimise any negative impacts, and perhaps enable people to come out ahead, particularly if one is prepared to keep an open mind, and think globally. The relevant extract from the book now follows:


The Expansion of the Special Drawing Rights’ Role Appears Convenient to Both West and East


The Chinese have all the necessary building blocks in place to support a new international financial system independent of the US dollar. They have worked extremely hard, and since 2008 with increased intensity, to reach their current position.
The Chinese focus is now on promoting the internationalisation of the yuan, establishing an oil futures exchange priced in yuan, and refining their various financial systems and institutions so as to be in a position to provide a seamless international financial platform across the full spectrum.


All things considered, it is highly likely that the Chinese preference would be to have more time to refine and bed in their financial systems in an orderly manner. However, bearing in mind the current fragile state of the international financial system, and the increasing Second Cold War tensions, circumstances might well overtake them, necessitating a baptism by fire.
At this point in time, there are two types of SDR: the O-SDR (“O” stands for Official and is only traded between national central banks), and the recently reintroduced M-SDR (“M” stands for Market, for trading on the open financial markets). The M-SDR has recently been reintroduced for use as an investment vehicle in the form of bonds initially available in the Chinese market. These bonds will be purchased with yuan, and upon maturity, they will be settled in yuan.


China’s renminbi/yuan officially became a component of the basket of currencies that are used to value the SDR on 1 October 2016. The SDR currency weightings are now as follows:

• The US dollar has a 41.73 percent weighting.
• The euro has a 30.93 percent weighting.
• The Chinese renminbi/yuan has a 10.92 percent weighting.
• The Japanese yen has an 8.33 percent weighting.
• The pound sterling has an 8.09 percent weighting.


It is important for the reader to realise that the SDR is just another fiat currency. It has no backing whatsoever other than the faith and confidence in the financial standing of the IMF. The involvement and weighting of the five currencies mentioned above is solely to provide a mechanism for the calculation of the SDR’s value in the foreign exchange markets. Just like any other fiat currency, it is created out of thin air.


A 2009 article written by Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) , was posted on the official PBOC website, in both Chinese and English, in which he called for a sweeping overhaul of the global monetary system. In that article he stated:
The price is becoming increasingly high, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws.
Special consideration should be given to giving the SDR a greater role. The SDR has the features and potential to act as a super sovereign reserve currency.


This indicates to the writer that China has no aspirations to see the yuan replace the US dollar in the role of the world’s premier reserve currency, because the “price is becoming increasingly high,” and suggests that in China’s opinion, the SDR is best suited to the role of the world’s premier reserve currency, because the IMF has no trade deficit or surplus.


SDR policies and strategy would be driven solely by its role as a reserve currency, whereas the US Fed is continually conflicted as to its US dollar strategy, as it impacts both domestic and international markets. What is good for the US domestic market can be detrimental to the international market and vice versa. Using the SDR would eliminate any such conflict and seems a pragmatic solution, but there are cons as well as pros, as will be highlighted shortly.


In his article Zhou went into some detail as to how the O-SDR could become a reserve currency, which included:
using the O-SDR for the settlement of global trade and financial transactions and
promoting the O-SDR in the pricing of commodities, trade, and investments.
Zhou also wrote:
The basket of currencies forming the basis for SDR valuation should be expanded to include currencies of all major economies, and the GDP may also be included as a weight. The allocation of the SDR can be shifted from a purely calculation-based system to a system backed by real assets, such as a reserve pool, to further boost market confidence in its value.
With the O-SDR now actively being considered for an expanded role, it would make sense to include all the G20 currencies in the SDR basket. It would also make sense that the O-SDR have some tangible backing, as suggested by Zhou. Gold would be the obvious choice.


It is very likely that the O-SDR is viewed by the Chinese as a way to sidestep the yuan being looked upon as a potential future successor to the US dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, as they view the downside of that role as being a route to possible continuous trade deficits, something that they seek to avoid.


The pricing of commodities, including energy, in O-SDRs would certainly assist China in its stated policy to reduce reliance on the US dollar. It would also be the death knell of the petrodollar.


The Puppeteers and TPTB may well be supportive of an expansion of the O-SDR’s role, as they would probably view that as a stepping-stone to the creation of a One World Currency, even at the expense of the death of the petrodollar. Remember, the Puppeteers and TPTB do not think in terms of individual nationhood per se; they only look at the global picture and how they can make something work in their favour within the context of achieving their ultimate goals.


So, for very different reasons, both the West and the East appear to be in favour of expanding the role of the O-SDR into that of the world’s premier reserve currency.

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  62 Comments

twippers
Dec 27, 2017 - 7:00pm

Brilliant Podcast

This is a great podcast by Chris Martenson and David Collum and well worth the listen. They really do an excellent summary on the state of the world right now.

David Collum: The Vicious Cycle Approaches
matt_
Dec 27, 2017 - 8:11pm

@lakedweller2

Thanks for the compliment on my article. I appreciate it.

Mickey AGXIIK
Dec 27, 2017 - 8:16pm

AGXIIK on business expansion

capex is almost nothing now-replacements and automation.

The St Louis Fed Fred data shows capacity utilization down under 80%-in a good economy that's up around 92ish%.

The businesses have the capacity to increase units produced by ~20% with current facilities; yeah not all of them.

But what comes first, adding employees and facility, or getting/realizing added demand?

The companies wait til the see the orders in the supply chain. And people, the workers cannot sustain spending with 2-3% wages when education and healthcare and taxes are eating them out of house and home.

We are royally FUBAR. A study out last week reported IL unfunded pensions at 388 billion vs the 129 billion claimed by teh state-the difference is mostly due to expected earnings. Does not include a 50% haircut in market for a sustained period of time. If we get a 3 year bear market, plans loss asset value but still pay out benefits till the well runs dry. The big IL plan, if no more earnings were available for 6 years would run out of assets in 6 years. If the stock and bond markets crap out, cut that time frame to 3 years, entirely conceivable, and not just for IL but mist other states too.

3 years is short term and when teh well runs dry, even if the market doubles in a year, the plan which has noting builds to nothing and all the participants are screwed as is the rest of the economy.

Then look at soc sec, medicare, medicaid (145 million difference beneficiaries today and growing fast) prescription drugs, obamacare subsidies (they should be set aside but nooooo-, everything iss pay as you go.

Now, add to the ponzi schemes for everything, US population has dropped to bupkis. And fewer of the young folks are working

It if was too good to be true, it usually was.

There is no such thing as a free lunch and this country is about to find out.

On the other hand, Officers option based bonuses are based on stock price or value--so if they can reduce the float with buybacks they create artificial demand at the same time. Everybody wins. Well, when the stocks crash ...

for 9 years now IBM has borrowed to do buybacks of around 7% a year, while sales and dollar of profits declined. the stock price is 18% higher than it was pre 2008 crash. It is a dow stock, so the dow index is weighted by stock price IBM at $172 a share has more pump to the dow if IBM stock is up 1%, vs the $17 buck GE stock being up 1%

SPX is market cap so Amazon and FB et all drive SPX price a bit.

People who invest today in general have now idea what is happening under the hood and what kind of company they are investing in. The govt data is flowering, and that's BS too. People think they are geniuses by making good money the last 8 years. They mostly know nothing and when this breaks there is going to be a whole lot of hurt being applied.

I said before if things work out the way we think they will, we here will have a portfolio of real nice assets--but we will not be able to or want to show our wealth and this country will be in a world of hurt along with other countries. Flaunting wealth then will be bad for your life expectancy. That's assuming the coming mini ice age or resource war will allow our society to continue.

lakedweller2
Dec 27, 2017 - 8:32pm

@matt

Got some hat tips so many agree. Keep it up.

Markedtofuture
Dec 27, 2017 - 9:37pm

Hannity Promises To Expose CNN & NBC News In "EpicFail"

Hannity Promises To Expose CNN & NBC News In "EpicFail"

"One week from tonight I will expose @CNN and @NBCNews news for #EpicFail..."

lakedweller2
Dec 27, 2017 - 9:53pm

Exposure

Do it now. No more talk. Wasting everyone's time.

abundance
Dec 27, 2017 - 10:20pm

thank you to whomever posted the eric schmitz/darpa/goog

25 min video...it's fascinating

reminds me of George Webb's spider web and how it gets bigger and bigger...

this video undercovers similar info

ERIC SCHMIDT & THE SECRET DARPA TAKEOVER
AGXIIK Mickey
Dec 27, 2017 - 10:59pm

That was a concise and easy to follow article Matt

The yield curve was tightening today. We might not need a negative; just close to zero. I forgot the capex mention.

If the people, corporations and investors who stand to gain most by repatriation of offshore funds don't think capex is worth the investment, they'll either offshore production, buy automation or just make do with what they have. If they fear that keeping capital local is unwise, they'll repatriate it, pay the nominal tax and rotated back to a safe haven after it's laundered through the stock buy backs and their personal portfolios.

All that potential capex infrastructure spending, touted as a singularly attractive benefit of lowering the corporate tax rate and bringing the funds home, might be little more than hype.

The top people nodded their heads back in the billionaire's Amen Corner and smiled.

It seems that almost everyone at the top; governments, pension plans, infrastructure planners, corporate elites and the like have been pushing the cart down the road. Investing in America is passe and not worth it in some many ways. Good help is hard to find. R2D2 is cheap. Kick the can and hire the tin.

$5 trillion in delayed or undone infrastructure, whether private enterprise or government, leaves our physical plants obsolete, unproductive and dangerous. Entire cities are hollowed out due to this. Maybe their thinking is such that 'why invest in something tangible that makes the company better when we can vote ourselves huge bonuses and stock options instead'. Eating the seed corn

As for the pensions, here is another multi generational can kicking Ponzi scheme that marinates in the false reality of 8% returns while the actuarial numbers say the pension plan to going Tango Uniform maybe today or in the very near future.

If I was a wealthy industrialist on the board of a major corporation, seeing how the local, state and national governments have completely messed up their mandates, with systemic failures looming, knowing that the TBTF and central bank are eyeing me as a fatted calf milch cow that'll be their best chance for bail ins, I'd keep my valuable funds offshore and out of the reach of the states that want to carve pieces from my company while the Federal government eyes me as a new and fertile field for higher taxes.

There are many system-wide weaknesses in the US dollar and the economy. The artificial values of all assets is due for a reckoning and fairly soon. The people at the top probably talk about nothing else. If we're cogniscent of these things, the top players are many moves ahead of these weaknesses, either moving their personal and corporate assets off shore or putting up necessary barriers to protect them.

I don't see any easy solutions despite Trump's MAGA policies. He's fighting battles multiple fronts and as far as I can see we need to watch out for ourselves.

Danforth Coxwell
Dec 28, 2017 - 12:40am

According to Kitco....

gold is is now 1290/oz.

1240/oz... who ever said that must have been nuts!!!!!

abundance
Dec 28, 2017 - 12:42am
Sound Money Minnow
Dec 28, 2017 - 1:46am

Lakedweller and Canary

CDE broke below its 50DMA today. It is well below 200 DMA, and below 110 EMA. I won't go near it until it breaks $8.50. I agree it was a great play in the first half of 2016. I think KL, and SAND have much better set ups right now.

I also like Marathon MGDPF, as a speculative buy/hold.

SMM

jaba
Dec 28, 2017 - 1:55am

@ Righting Moment

Many thanks for the kind words.

If you can spare the time, I shall be most grateful if you will be kind enough to write a brief Amazon 'review,' as the more reviews the more likely that people will buy the book.

My main objective in writing the book was to make it an easy read for those that know nothing about the international financial system, geopolitics, macroeconomics etc. and to make it an interesting read, by demonstrating how western society has been egregiously misled by the main stream media. Ergo, it is a sincere attempt to open peoples eyes, but I recognise that the contents can turn many people off becuse it takes them outside their comfort zone.

Again, my thanks for your comments.

canary
Dec 28, 2017 - 2:14am

Governments war on gold (and silver)...extends to cryptos now

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/south-korea-shutdown-threat-sparks-crypto-carnage-20

We the people...right. They print money like crazy (to stay in power longer), next blame people for being creative and protecting themselves.

Markedtofuture
Dec 28, 2017 - 7:13am

Russiagate Skeptic Debates A Professional Russiagater

What Happens When A Russiagate Skeptic Debates A Professional Russiagater

Have you ever wondered why mainstream media outlets never have critics of the Russiagate narrative on to debate those who advance it? Well, in a recent Real News interview we received an extremely clear answer to that question, and it was so epic it deserves its own article.


Dec 28, 2017 - 7:37am

A much needed book.

James, forgive me for posting a book review prior to receiving your book in the mail, but I felt it warranted based on the thesis you present and your writing here discussing the two SDR variations. The time is short, and persuading relatives to take meaningful action has to be done by a "prophet" from another town. Thanks for the read today.

AGXIIK
Dec 28, 2017 - 8:14am

My thanks to the person who posted the Collum/Martenson podcast

This 75 minute podcast was one of the better reviews of what can only be described the utter fraud and insanity of the financial world today. You're at risk when the markets are open or closed.

15 daily email missives describe the next best thing (to buy/invest/steal.), blended with 15 counters to the pump n'dumpers.

Each asks us to send $49 a year for more data.

The promoters rely on the greed and stupidity of QE addicts, waiting for their daily feeding, like grossly over fat pate de foie gras geese yearning for the feeding funnel.

The counters are stern in their rebukes to the fatted audience.

Perversion to the mean is the fate of those who eschew financial sacrifice, chasing the grail of quick riches.

How to grow wealthy: Call it the art of doing less to achieve more. The aesthetic of wealth creation for it's own sake with the simple beauty of conservation.

The mean is the fate of 90% of all people, where the cupboard is bare; the check book's balance is equal to the chances of financial recovery and a cup of coffee is charged on credit card.

Few can shun the calls of charlatans and ponzi propeller heads who sidle up, convincingly touting the next best thing.

"Mining Quatloos on the dark side of Uranus."

I can hardly wait to jump at the chance.

streber AGXIIK
Dec 28, 2017 - 9:34am
OOOBuck
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:09am

NOVO finally gets off its ass

with current move to near $2.75, (so is the correction behind us?)

Kranzler called this one for $2 (or less) before buying in. (But Jimmy Rogers is waiting for gold to fall below $1,000!)

My thinking: Even the experts are wrong sometimes (and that's when they're actually willing to share.)

canary
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:23am

Financial experts....

I consider Yogi Bear to be the only expert about the future.

silver10sguy
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:26am

QAnon Video New Guests at Guantanamo Bay

Q Anon/Deep State Takedown Update!!!

The Trump takedown of the Deep State gets bits of information through QAnon. This video talks about new guests at Guantanamo Bay including Tony Podesta and some members of Barrick Gold! He also mentions wheelchair access for George Bush Sr! Some arrests turned into fire fights and guess some of the Clinton assassins were taken out. I saw a picture earlier of General Mattis at Guantanamo Bay surrounded by hundreds of the military. Since the Executive Order this shit is happening. Can't wait till it is finally allowed to go public.

canary
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:30am

Harey Organ on Option Expiration...

JUST TO LET YOU KNOW THAT OTC OPTIONS EXPIRE THIS FRIDAY WHICH ALSO CORRESPONDS TO FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY CONTRACT FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. JANUARY IS A POOR DELIVERY MONTH FOR BOTH OF OUR METALS AND JANUARY IS ALSO NON ACTIVE FOR BOTH.

onesong
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:41am

Two of my fav Yogi-ism...

Nobody goes there any more, It's to crowded.

It was impossible to get a conversation going, everybody was talking too much.

lakedweller2
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:44am

000Buck

Novo positive today. Kranzler revised from $2 buy area to $1 area after last Hennigh release.

My thinking is the illegal naked shorts are taking advantage (as usual) of the difficulty in measuring the grade of the conglomerate in the Pilbara and that things actually remain on track to develop the guess over at least 6months.

It may be just mining the area and reporting the results is the answer, which is not typical

The manipulators probably see a lot of potential in milking the Aussie stocks and the public until they can't.

Anyway, I am treating it as things are good at $1 or $2 and represents normal growth as things develop. The US markets under play everything but gold, but there is some evidence of lithium, cobalt, cessium in these same areas that over time could supplement or drive the mining effort.

Obviously the naked shorts aren't in it for business development but a quick penny at the expense of their fellow man. Long live the oligarchs and the horse they rode in on!

OOOBuck
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:46am

AG still floundering

down 3% to $6.75

The shorts continue to take their toll.

Good time to add another crumb or two.

Mickey
Dec 28, 2017 - 10:55am

One song

I like those two also.

my wife has a habit of being critical when we are out for dinner with a few couples and she accuses me of interrupting hers and others conversations: meanwhile she and some others rarely come up for air, so if they do come up for air and stop talking, I try to say something and they shut me up--then on the way home she asks if anything is wrong, I was so quiet.

Yogi would cut this into just a few words, I bet.

jaba
Dec 28, 2017 - 11:08am

@ Dr Jerome

Many thanks for buying the book and for your kind comments. Much appreciated.

Markedtofuture
Dec 28, 2017 - 11:15am

Novo new interview- QH - Jay Taylor

brendho posts- Great new interview- some clarity around a few points and QH appears to be wanting to reassure people this is just the start of something good. Some highlights at 13.58 " we have observed gold scattered across 8km at Purdy's " although this could mean into Novo's 100% property. Also states " some very very near them commentary on grades" and the highlight for me that the gold in Purdy's is in absolute terms definitely NOT supergene I.e it is where it was deposited and not moved and concentrated into Purdy's making that a localised freak show. This is critical to the basin wide mineralization hypothesis. A bit of detail over sample size and explanation re issues with Nagrom Steinhart sorter. Teething issues a plenty and makes me very happy to be on ARV. I think as stated before Novo have the uphill battle in needing to understand the science and lay of the down dip mineralisation to unlock the commercial viability of their tenements while ARV can get cracking and just rip up the near surface cream for a motza Well worth a listen.

https://jaytaylormedia.com/media/NovoResources20180102.mp3

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/new-qh-interview-with-jay-taylor.3935735/?post_id=29920685

SteveW
Dec 28, 2017 - 12:00pm
scoremore
Dec 28, 2017 - 12:37pm

Cashonly...

Thinking out loud...

That Economist pic.

It shows a "10" and the rising Phoenix.

Ripple = XRP

10 is Roman numeral "X"

"R"ising "P"hoenix.

Ripple is used for bankers to clear bank transactions.

Anyone think I just made a leap or am I on to something?

onesong
Dec 28, 2017 - 1:37pm

I know we're in a good spot now but let's see...

how long it will last because we all know what happens after we are all happy for awhile.

Some of us talk about the fundamentals of the miners here but it doesn't seem to matter. The trading desk's guys just seem to be playing whack a mole so it doesn't really matter which miner you pick. On the way up or on the way down... who cares it's all fake anyway. The banks financed the miners so they own them and the miners must toe the line. The institutions/hedge funds and Gates/Buffet type own the majority of the shares that are colluding with the banks. The only way to play is to hold a few royal/streamers, producers, and developing miners with proven metals in the ground and put equal amounts of fiat in each to play the odds. I don't mess with the big boys like Newmont or Barrick and I'm not touching and explorers without proof.

The trading desk guys are laughing and I am despondent... Hum, what would a normal person do? I guess the answer here at Turdville is to add to our miners when things look bleak and sell when it's all sunshine and lollipops, because we BELIEVE in the end we will WIN! Mathematically yeah but how long can one stay the course? They probably just want to make sure we can't get back to even but want us to stay in the game with hope. At this point it looks like God would have to perform a miracle to stop these criminal banks! I hope the end is the first quarter of 2018!

I am seriously considering selling all of my miners and buying phys silver. I just don't want to be going down to the LCS once a month to convert that silver to fiat to pay for needs. Not to mention the realized lost a these suppressed prices. The worst part... selling all my miners after all this time (5+ years). I'm sure that will be when the moon shot happens but not until. Heck, just this past week as soon as I throw a few k at a miner or two... you guessed it! WACK! It's like they look at my portfolio in real time! And it doesn't matter if it's just some old penny miner like Golden Queen or the best of the best, like Franco-Nevada I get whacked jacked and completely discombobulated!

As I've said before... I'm looking to get out of the miners at the next top. Hopefully before April Fools Day! Top being HUI maybe 220. Only because I've noticed in the past my frame of mind is so much better when I am lite miners and so stressed when I'm all in, like now!

I must remember... Never get out of the boat! Why... because the criminal banks are in total control! AND there is so much dark money I believe they will always... all ways have total control. Even if chicken little comes down our streets the criminal money changers will be there as they have been since honest money was ever traded.

I'm going to go out into the real world now and hopefully NOT have a bad day.

See ya later... fingers crossed!

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