The Fix Was In

62
Fri, Oct 6, 2017 - 10:37am

Just as how a negative job print doesn't matter, and just as how earnings rising solely due to hurricane-related overtime doesn't matter, the fix was in today for the "metals"...just as we've been expecting for over three weeks. Now comes the test. Will we also be proven correct that the lows for this latest Spec wash are now upon us?

Look, there's really no sense in going over all of this stuff again. In fact, it's all so egregious that even Eric Sprott was left speechless this morning: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/october-6-2017-weekly-wrap-up-with-eric...

Since everything turned on September 8, we've targeted today as the day where this latest Spec washout would be at or near completion. The only missing piece is that we though the all-important USDJPY would stretch back to 114.00-114.50 before it was done and, despite today's shenanigans, we still have a last of just 113.35. However, if it remains above 113 through the day, then an early week move next week should take care of that, too.

From there, prices will begin to recover and, as the old adage goes, today is the day to buy some as things certainly couldn't look or feel much worse.

Adding some level of confidence, the charts for the "metals" are pretty much right where we expected them to be today. It was at least three weeks ago when we began discussing $1260 and the 200-day MA as The Cartel target for CDG and $16.20-$16.40 as the target for CDS. Well, look below:

We also speculated early this week that any big dip today would bring the RSI in CDS down to the 30 level. Again, look below. It's now at 28.

And look at the HUI. For as bad as today seems, the index is only off 1% at 197.75. This means it's still holding above its own 200-day, which is seeming to provide very stout support:

So I'm going with the motto of "don't be sore, buy more". Just as I should have sold a few trading positions back when things look rosiest on September 8, I'm going to add some sort of casino-based trading position today. Once I do, I'll let you know what it is.

And now I see this fabulous bit of sleuthing from ZH. Ummm...you might want to be sure to read this: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-06/bls-caught-fabricating-data

I'd better stop and get this posted as prices are already turning. CDG is $7 off its lows and back to $1270 while CDS is a full 1% of its lows and back to $16.50.

Have a great day but be sure to check back later for your Friday podcast.

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  62 Comments


Oct 6, 2017 - 10:39am

and this re Nork

YukonCornelius
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:39am
chrtoo
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:40am

First.

How did that happen?

Things looks like a mess, today.

Happy Thanksgiving Weekend to us Canadian Turdites.

CHR.

TF
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:41am
YukonCornelius TF
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:42am

Maybe explains Trump's "calm before storm" comment?

Could be U.S. airstrike is imminent.


Oct 6, 2017 - 10:44am

And of course...

I never got any options bought. Oh well, just enthused by the potential of painting the bullish engulfing reversal candles that we discussed back on Wednesday's podcast.

happycamper515
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:45am

Hammer Thingy

We'll get one if we can hold here until the close ay?

abundance
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:47am

how does the dollar get strong (over 94) while

the 10 and 30 yr sell off...is that normal?

TF
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:48am

And remember, there have been

And remember, there have been reports all week that the Norks would shoot off something next Monday to correspond with the Hangul Day holiday. This commemorates the birth of the Korean Worker's Party.

Their very first nuke test occurred on this date back in 2006: https://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/09/world/asia/09korea.html

JQuest
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:57am

The Dollar is Dumping..

Gold is Jumping...

What's up with this?

Alice said as she stepped back out of the looking glass.

happycamper515
Oct 6, 2017 - 10:57am

Is it even possible?

for the someone to cover these contracts before the spike up? Or is someone under water on a huge number of contracts?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/massive-gold-dump-after-fir...


Oct 6, 2017 - 10:58am

helped out by the Norks

However, if you've been playing along...reading and listening every day for the past three weeks...then today's reversal is really quite remarkable as it has played out almost EXACTLY as we'd predicted.

As they say, even a blind squirrel occasionally bumps into a nut.

happycamper515
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:00am

That dump was likely a Spec

That dump was likely a Spec washout post BLSBS and tracking the spiking USDJPY.

So, who do you think might have been buying/covering into all that Spec selling? Hmmmm????

flipper22
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:00am

Heck of a call Turd

Morgan Stanley may have been wrong in their employment # but you were correct on silver. Bash it down to 16.40's. This site sure is worth every penny.


Oct 6, 2017 - 11:02am

Aw Jeez Louise

And now there's this, too:

flipper22
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:03am
flipper22
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:04am

This is NOT a blind squirrel

This is very educated predictions indicating the most probable outcome. You get a pat on the back. Unfortunately, I have not bought at what is probably the low because I'm traveling to my daughters soccer tournament.

AGXIIK
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:07am

My brain is exploding

Gold's in a reversal

What could be adverse'll?

Nork's nuclear rehearsal

Trump's statement, all terse'll

Calm before it gets worse'll

YukonCornelius
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:15am
simjojim
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:21am

Yes

and after that inverse'll

I can cancel the hearse'll

Mickey
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:29am

Fukasima

I think ZH posted yesterday that Fukishima was given teh green light to restart

silver10sguy
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:39am

Excellent Work Turd

You called it Turd! I like your new motto, "Don't Be Sore, Buy More." With the non dollar multi polar world paving a New Silk Road we are on the cusp of a new paradigm. I sure hope Turdville will be celebrating new yearly highs for gold and silver soon!!!

JQuest
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:40am

Looks Like TPTB

Have quickly activated their ALGO that controls PM Pricing.

Set: "Hold Gold Upward Price Moves to $10 Maximum"

I Hope I'm wrong...

Hillsie
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:49am

Nice JUMP!

Might be in a house of pain but every now and then we get a JUMP ;-)

Video unavailable
brolgaboy
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:50am

fantastic stuff this week Craig

wow, man you are dialed in!....


Oct 6, 2017 - 11:52am

Thanks for the kind words everyone

As you might imagine, this will be prominently discussed in today's podcast.

If we go out here or higher, there will be massive bullish reversal engulfing candles on both charts.

Hillsie
Oct 6, 2017 - 11:53am

Oct 6, 2017 - 11:59am

don't forget about this, too

indiana rod
Oct 6, 2017 - 12:12pm

Some Reversal

As usual they hit silver and gold when the jobs report came out. What the jobs report has to do with the price of precious metals is beyond me.

Mine is not to wonder why, it is but to stay invested 'till I die.

Then gold and silver gained going into the noon hour, the opposite of what usually happens.

So, for about the thousandeth time I'm thinking, 'maybe it's different this time.'

Blythesshrink
Oct 6, 2017 - 12:21pm

Just on Nate, I think some of

Just on Nate, I think some of the higher resolution models have it deeper than the GFS, so could be worse than Cat 1; no Katrina though IMHO.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 2/11

2/12 12:45 ET GCP speaks
2/13 8:30 ET CPI and three Goon speeches
2/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales (December)
2/14 8:30 ET PPI
2/15 8:30 ET Import Price Index
2/15 9:15 ET Cap. Util. & Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 2/4

2/5 8:30 ET Trade Balance
2/5 9:45 ET Service PMIs
2/5 9:00 pm ET Trump SOTU
2/6 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
2/6 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
2/7 9:30 ET Goon Clarida speech
2/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 1/28

1/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
1/30 8:30 ET Q4 GDP first guess
1/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
1/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
1/31 8:30 ET Personal Inc, Cons. Spending and Core Inflation
1/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
2/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
2/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
2/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
2/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending