The Fix Was In
Just as how a negative job print doesn't matter, and just as how earnings rising solely due to hurricane-related overtime doesn't matter, the fix was in today for the "metals"...just as we've been expecting for over three weeks. Now comes the test. Will we also be proven correct that the lows for this latest Spec wash are now upon us?
Look, there's really no sense in going over all of this stuff again. In fact, it's all so egregious that even Eric Sprott was left speechless this morning: https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/october-6-2017-weekly-wrap-up-with-eric-sprott.html
Since everything turned on September 8, we've targeted today as the day where this latest Spec washout would be at or near completion. The only missing piece is that we though the all-important USDJPY would stretch back to 114.00-114.50 before it was done and, despite today's shenanigans, we still have a last of just 113.35. However, if it remains above 113 through the day, then an early week move next week should take care of that, too.
From there, prices will begin to recover and, as the old adage goes, today is the day to buy some as things certainly couldn't look or feel much worse.
Adding some level of confidence, the charts for the "metals" are pretty much right where we expected them to be today. It was at least three weeks ago when we began discussing $1260 and the 200-day MA as The Cartel target for CDG and $16.20-$16.40 as the target for CDS. Well, look below:
We also speculated early this week that any big dip today would bring the RSI in CDS down to the 30 level. Again, look below. It's now at 28.
And look at the HUI. For as bad as today seems, the index is only off 1% at 197.75. This means it's still holding above its own 200-day, which is seeming to provide very stout support:
So I'm going with the motto of "don't be sore, buy more". Just as I should have sold a few trading positions back when things look rosiest on September 8, I'm going to add some sort of casino-based trading position today. Once I do, I'll let you know what it is.
And now I see this fabulous bit of sleuthing from ZH. Ummm...you might want to be sure to read this: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-06/bls-caught-fabricating-data
I'd better stop and get this posted as prices are already turning. CDG is $7 off its lows and back to $1270 while CDS is a full 1% of its lows and back to $16.50.
Have a great day but be sure to check back later for your Friday podcast.