Comex Silver "Deliveries" Surge In September

50
Tue, Oct 3, 2017 - 11:22am

Though Comex metal "delivery" remains a sham and circle jerk where The Banks simply shuffle paper warehouse receipts and warrants, we thought the latest totals for September were noteworthy enough to bring them to your attention.

Again, we've written about this on countless occasions and this post is not meant to imply that "the Comex is about to break" or that "there is a run on The Banks". Instead, September saw the continuation of two trends of which you need to be aware. Comex "deliveries" are up dramatically in 2017 and JPM continues to stand down.

First, take a look at the historical pattern of "deliveries" during the so-called "delivery months" of March, May, July, September and December. Below is a summary of the "delivery" activity for 2015:

The one way we've always quantified "deliveries" here at TFMR is to consider the total amount of stated "deliveries" at the end of each month versus the total number of contracts that had been left open and allegedly "standing for delivery" at the beginning of the process. For 2015, it looked like this:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Dec14 3,950 2,975 75.3%

Mar15 3,142 2,583 82.2%

May15 3,371 2,840 84.2%

Jul15 2,699 3,637 134.8%

Sep15 2,198 1,555 70.7%

Dec15 4,078 3,939 96.6%

As you can see, the only outlier in 2015 was the month of July where nearly 1,000 additional contracts materialized requesting immediate "delivery". Other than that, it was a rather orderly process.

Now, let's look at the summaries for 2016.

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar16 3,804 1,356 35.6%

May16 5,603 2,716 48.5%

Jul16 2,957 2,474 83.7%

Sep16 3,412 3,215 94.2%

Dec16 3,056 3,980 130.2%

Again, a rather mundane year of silver "deliveries" with one exception. This time, the month of December saw an "oversubscription". Where Jul15 had seen "deliveries" exceed standing by 938 contracts, Dec16 saw the same exception to the tune of 924 contracts. Other than that, it was another somewhat orderly year.

So let's move on to consider the "delivery" action in 2017 to see if anything unusual is taking place:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar17 7,299 3,872 53.1%

May17 3,360 4,657 138.6%

Jul17 2,423 3,287 135.7%

Sep17 4,103 6,575 160.2%

Well now. This is beginning to look a bit different, isn't it? Go back up and review the data for 2015 and 2016. Note that only one month in five ever shows a "delivery" total in excess of the amount of contracts still open before First Notice Day. And now, if we include last December, we've seen this occur in four of the past five months with the most recent "delivery month" of September seeing the largest percentage "oversubscription" yet at 160.2%

And when we look at it in absolute terms, the "deliveries" for last month get even more interesting. Note that there were 4,103 contracts still open when the contract went off the board on August 30. At 5,000 ounces per contract, that's a total potential "delivery" obligation of 20,515,000 ounces of silver or about 638 metric tonnes. By the end of the month, the Comex had actually "delivered" 6,575 contracts for 32,875,000 ounces of silver or about 1023 metric tonnes.

So, what's the deal here? Why the sudden rush in 2017 to jump the queue and take immediate "delivery" instead of simply waiting until the next "delivery month"? Could it indicate wholesale physical tightness? Could it indicate a lack of trust amongst The Banks? Could it indicate absolutely nothing?

Well, one thing we know for certain is that this anomaly is not being caused by the House or proprietary account of JPMorgan. Recall that in March we caught JPM blatantly exceeding that stated front-month position limits for Comex silver. We wrote about it at the time and even went so far as to file a formal complaint with the CFTC: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8243/march-comex-silver-deliveries

Back in July, we next noticed that the House Account of JPMorgan had completely discontinued all "delivery" activity in Comex silver: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8451/specific-peculiarity

Well guess what...that trend has continued through September. See below:

So, at the end of the day, what do we make of all this? I guess that's up to you, the reader, to decide. No doubt "deliveries" in Comex silver have increased dramatically in 2017 but what is a "delivery" anyway? Is it actual metal or just an exchange of warehouse receipts between Banks, made to create the illusion of physical delivery for their paper derivative market? And does this increase in "deliveries" translate to physical demand and Comex stress or is it just emblematic of the general increase in total Comex silver open interest?

These are all interesting questions and, unfortunately, these deliberately-opaque "markets" make it impossible to state the answers with certainty. One thing is certain, however, and that is the notion that no institution built upon fraud, lies and deceit will stand indefinitely. Eventually, this current paper derivative pricing scheme will fail as true physical demand overwhelms The Banks' ability to manage their unallocated and fractional reserve system. For that day, we continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe

About the Author

Founder
tfmetalsreport [at] gmail [dot] com ()

  50 Comments

  Refresh
Ned Braden
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:55pm

@ Dr Jerome,

In that regard, today's COT report may be quite telling.....

ancientmoneyDoctor J
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:53pm

Dr Jerome re: gold going to $500...

"My sister in law says that a "guru" she knows is predicting that the price of gold will fall to $500 and everyone better sell out now."

----------------------------------------------------------------

Not sure who the "guru" is, but he/she may be onto something.

I have said here on several occasions, that the "paper" price of gold and silver could very well approach zero. Here's the story in steps:

1. physical supplies get too low for the bankers to keep stifling the PM prices through paper shenanigans;

2. banksters don't want to have to pay the longs anything;

3. so they short-sell the living hell out of the PM futures market, making past smashes seem like child's play;

4. the low is hit ($500 gold?) on a Friday comex close;

5. on Sunday night, there is an announcement that comex futures trading in gold and silver has been "temporarily" halted, and all contracts outstanding will be settled, in cash, as of the last Friday's closing price.

Voila! We get some paper price approaching zero that gets the banks out of having to settle in phyzz, or even pay much (in fiat) to the longs who still might be playing the game!

Many more announcements will then follow, of course, but the PM prices will be set free of comex paper controls.

CC Horses
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:47pm

David Morgan

David Morgan: There is Nothing More Powerful Than the Truth

Good interview - Discuss the Gold Yuan Oil trade

30 minute video

RickshawETF
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:42pm

@ YukonCornelius

I guess you missed my post "Finding Gems in the Miners" under argentus maximus's September 27th article: If You're Planning Dinner While On The Way Home, Who Is Driving the Car?

Excellon is up 7.45% in the four days since I posted my back-of-the-napkin analysis . . .

Angry Chef
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:34pm

Maidan in Spain, and some new “dog whistles”

Interesting read. The links are important as well. If anybody wants to underswtand what the long term plan of the Pentagon and the Neo-Con crazies is. Be sure to check out this link as well.

https://thesaker.is/pentagon-makes-a-20-year-plan-while-washington-outso...

https://thesaker.is/maidan-in-spain-and-some-new-dog-whistles/

The World's Reserve currency allows for this. Gold stands directly in the path of the Empire.

onesong
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:30pm

Four dead at La Encantada mine!

First Majestic Reports Accident at La Encantada

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 03, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) (TSX:FR) ("First Majestic" or the "Company") reports an accident occurred at its La Encantada Silver Mine in the state of Coahuila, Mexico.

The accident occurred as part of the construction of the 790 ramp at the La Encantada mine. A total of four miners lost their lives due to gas intoxication which accumulated in the area. There was no explosion as other media sources have reported. It is believed the operator of a scoop tram lost consciousness while mucking the area. Three additional miners later arrived to the scene to provide assistance to the ill miner. The four men were carrying all required personal protection equipment, including safety belt breathing apparatuses, but sadly did not use the equipment. The emergency response crew was dispatched and successfully extracted the four miners before transporting them to the local hospital where they were later pronounced deceased.

"Our thoughts and prayers are with the families during this tragic time," said Keith Neumeyer, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Safety is a top priority at First Majestic and we will continue to work to prevent such accidents from occurring."

The accident is being investigated by the Company and Mexican authorities. The workers' families have been notified. Immediately following the accident, First Majestic chose to cease mining operations at the mine in order to focus attention on the response and to provide support to the families of the deceased. The Company expects to resume mining operations on October 4, 2017 but the 790 area will remain closed until the investigation is completed.

silver10sguy
Oct 3, 2017 - 1:07pm

Very Interesting Post Turd

The increasing rate of deliveries may be very significant. Thanks for sharing this data Turd. Interesting to note that CNBC is pumping the dollar right now with two goons waiting for a rise in the dollar. Yet no news at all on the yuan/oil/gold news that is VERY IMPORTANT! Lastly, I read the Goldman Sachs is considering a brand new operation which would be dedicated to bitcoin trading.

YukonCornelius
Oct 3, 2017 - 12:55pm

Excellon Resources - Eric Sprott...

added on September 22nd - 10% holder.

Canadian ticker - EXN

Pink sheets - EXLLF

Chart looks constructive...

Looks like primarily a silver play... not alot of good ones out there

https://www.canadianinsider.com/money-moving/2017-09-28/eric-sprott-buyi...

Jihk2431
Oct 3, 2017 - 12:51pm
NUGTCALL
Oct 3, 2017 - 12:48pm

I don't know

I can try.

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Recent Comments

by Outback, 11 min 43 sec ago
by Dr Jerome, 16 min 7 sec ago
by Turd Ferguson, 24 min 56 sec ago
by Ned Braden, 26 min 13 sec ago
by bpete, 27 min 13 sec ago

Forum Discussion

by Green Lantern, 9 hours 44 min ago
by KevinBenavides, Sep 27, 2020 - 6:01pm
by SteveW, Sep 27, 2020 - 3:47pm
by 11IMIX, Sep 27, 2020 - 10:45am
randomness