Comex Silver "Deliveries" Surge In September

50
Tue, Oct 3, 2017 - 11:22am

Though Comex metal "delivery" remains a sham and circle jerk where The Banks simply shuffle paper warehouse receipts and warrants, we thought the latest totals for September were noteworthy enough to bring them to your attention.

Again, we've written about this on countless occasions and this post is not meant to imply that "the Comex is about to break" or that "there is a run on The Banks". Instead, September saw the continuation of two trends of which you need to be aware. Comex "deliveries" are up dramatically in 2017 and JPM continues to stand down.

First, take a look at the historical pattern of "deliveries" during the so-called "delivery months" of March, May, July, September and December. Below is a summary of the "delivery" activity for 2015:

The one way we've always quantified "deliveries" here at TFMR is to consider the total amount of stated "deliveries" at the end of each month versus the total number of contracts that had been left open and allegedly "standing for delivery" at the beginning of the process. For 2015, it looked like this:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Dec14 3,950 2,975 75.3%

Mar15 3,142 2,583 82.2%

May15 3,371 2,840 84.2%

Jul15 2,699 3,637 134.8%

Sep15 2,198 1,555 70.7%

Dec15 4,078 3,939 96.6%

As you can see, the only outlier in 2015 was the month of July where nearly 1,000 additional contracts materialized requesting immediate "delivery". Other than that, it was a rather orderly process.

Now, let's look at the summaries for 2016.

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar16 3,804 1,356 35.6%

May16 5,603 2,716 48.5%

Jul16 2,957 2,474 83.7%

Sep16 3,412 3,215 94.2%

Dec16 3,056 3,980 130.2%

Again, a rather mundane year of silver "deliveries" with one exception. This time, the month of December saw an "oversubscription". Where Jul15 had seen "deliveries" exceed standing by 938 contracts, Dec16 saw the same exception to the tune of 924 contracts. Other than that, it was another somewhat orderly year.

So let's move on to consider the "delivery" action in 2017 to see if anything unusual is taking place:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar17 7,299 3,872 53.1%

May17 3,360 4,657 138.6%

Jul17 2,423 3,287 135.7%

Sep17 4,103 6,575 160.2%

Well now. This is beginning to look a bit different, isn't it? Go back up and review the data for 2015 and 2016. Note that only one month in five ever shows a "delivery" total in excess of the amount of contracts still open before First Notice Day. And now, if we include last December, we've seen this occur in four of the past five months with the most recent "delivery month" of September seeing the largest percentage "oversubscription" yet at 160.2%

And when we look at it in absolute terms, the "deliveries" for last month get even more interesting. Note that there were 4,103 contracts still open when the contract went off the board on August 30. At 5,000 ounces per contract, that's a total potential "delivery" obligation of 20,515,000 ounces of silver or about 638 metric tonnes. By the end of the month, the Comex had actually "delivered" 6,575 contracts for 32,875,000 ounces of silver or about 1023 metric tonnes.

So, what's the deal here? Why the sudden rush in 2017 to jump the queue and take immediate "delivery" instead of simply waiting until the next "delivery month"? Could it indicate wholesale physical tightness? Could it indicate a lack of trust amongst The Banks? Could it indicate absolutely nothing?

Well, one thing we know for certain is that this anomaly is not being caused by the House or proprietary account of JPMorgan. Recall that in March we caught JPM blatantly exceeding that stated front-month position limits for Comex silver. We wrote about it at the time and even went so far as to file a formal complaint with the CFTC: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8243/march-comex-silver-deliveries

Back in July, we next noticed that the House Account of JPMorgan had completely discontinued all "delivery" activity in Comex silver: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8451/specific-peculiarity

Well guess what...that trend has continued through September. See below:

So, at the end of the day, what do we make of all this? I guess that's up to you, the reader, to decide. No doubt "deliveries" in Comex silver have increased dramatically in 2017 but what is a "delivery" anyway? Is it actual metal or just an exchange of warehouse receipts between Banks, made to create the illusion of physical delivery for their paper derivative market? And does this increase in "deliveries" translate to physical demand and Comex stress or is it just emblematic of the general increase in total Comex silver open interest?

These are all interesting questions and, unfortunately, these deliberately-opaque "markets" make it impossible to state the answers with certainty. One thing is certain, however, and that is the notion that no institution built upon fraud, lies and deceit will stand indefinitely. Eventually, this current paper derivative pricing scheme will fail as true physical demand overwhelms The Banks' ability to manage their unallocated and fractional reserve system. For that day, we continue to prepare accordingly.

TF

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  50 Comments

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TF Metals fan
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:45pm

@ Dr J

If the markets come crashing down gold at $500 might be a possibility. But we know that AISC does not allow these levels to exist for a very long time. After the chaos I expect to see gold recover quickly. Just like we saw in 2008. So in the panic I probably will switch off the pc......

brolgaboy
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:41pm

Dead miners

only in Mexico, let's reopen for biz tomorrow! Seems one guy was getting gassed and three guys went in to help

without putting on their protective gear. Result? four dead Mexicans.

Coeur, also in Mexico, is starting to run a bit. 10 million declared shorts there.

$20 would sure help the cause....

ancientmoneyfluxplus
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:40pm

fluxplus re: $500 or zero gold price...

"Walking Dead scenario. Nobody cares about gold there. Only food, guns and ammo."

-----------------------------------------------------------------

You aren't understanding--that is the "paper" gold price--used to divert people from the real deal: physical in your possession.

Physical prices will be far higher than current values given it by the paper shenanigan market (comex).

ancientmoneyAngry Chef
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:37pm

Angry chef re: bargain-basement prices...

They might buy prices all the way down, but they'll get back fiat--not PMs...at the lows at the close. Not such a great deal...

ancientmoneyboomer sooner
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:35pm

Boomer-sooner re: taxi driver...

Looks to me more like maybe the 4th or 5th floor....

AGXIIKCC Horses
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:33pm

5 BAGS OF GOLD 1 BAG FAKE-- THE STACKER SAYS

I'll buy all 5 bags at spot times .8%

Ship it and I'll pay the postage and insurance.

Lock the price now and I will send you a check for $51,099 inluding USPS $10 and $89 for insurance.

PS Do not toy with me.

I have a real hankerin' for gold and can use the fake coins for card caps.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

infometron
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:30pm

@Turd

At 6:10-6:15 of that video, the cab driver estimates it (whatever 'it' was) was from about the 10th floor. Fire alarm strobe lights, eh? Hmmm...

White light, not red? Hmmm...

Would have to be an elevator lobby, not a hotel room, right? Hmmm...

Frequency of flashes corresponding to frequency of rifle reports? Hmmm...

I'm sure it's nothing important. Not worth thinking about, let alone, uh, verifying.

Oct 3, 2017 - 3:27pm

gold crash

$500 gold would mean the failure we have been awaiting for since 2012 is upon us. Sounds like if that theory is correct, we'll have a weekend to do final prepping--and perhaps moving to our "vacation home"--before the rest of the world is aware of the urgency of the moment. I bet no LCS shops will be selling their metal and online dealers will be offline. Good luck if you didn't 't have gold & silver already. After my big sale two weeks ago, the remaining 30% of my stack is deeply buried. We have already started increasing it again. Not letting that go for anything except survival.

I'd love to see the banking system implode, and gold to be released, but hope that it isn't prompted by serious war.

The wife and I watched a TV show last night that showed close-up footage of efforts in a hospital in Iraq to save servicemen blown up by IEDs. The patients just kept coming in... Not sure if it was reenacted or actual--but they were interviewing the doctor and nurses. I jut got madder & madder at seeing these young men with feet and legs blown off... for what? to serve some globalist plot, or bankster schemes, or other Industrial Military plans to extract the wealth of other nations. And these incredible medical people were giving all they have to save lives, not even realizing that this war crap is unnecessary.

I was so duped from 2001 to 2010, thinking all the Bush wars were necessary. But so many people are still blind to it.

and then some idiot shoots up the concert in Vegas

and then Tom Petty dies

How bad does it get before the end?

I am glad to be part of a community here that has their collective eyes open.

Libero
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:21pm
infometron
Oct 3, 2017 - 3:13pm

In the comments on Youtube,

In the comments on Youtube, it's suggested that the flashing lights in the lower levels were not muzzle flashes but instead the strobe lights of the fire alram system.

Seems quite plausible.

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Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
8/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs July

Key Economic Events Week of 8/10

8/10 10:00 ET Job openings
8/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Idx
8/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Idx
8/13 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/13 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 8/3

8/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI July
8/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
8/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
8/5 8:15 ET ADP employment July
8/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
8/5 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
8/6 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
8/7 8:30 ET BLSBS for July
8/7 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 7/27

7/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
7/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
7/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
7/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
7/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
7/30 8:30 ET Q2 GDP first guess
7/31 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
7/31 8:30 ET Core inflation
7/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 7/20

7/21 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
7/21 2:00 ET Senate vote on Judy Shelton
7/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
7/23 8:30 ET Jobless claims
7/23 10:00 ET Leading Economic Indicators
7/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for July

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