Comex Silver "Deliveries" Surge In September

Tue, Oct 3, 2017 - 11:22am

Though Comex metal "delivery" remains a sham and circle jerk where The Banks simply shuffle paper warehouse receipts and warrants, we thought the latest totals for September were noteworthy enough to bring them to your attention.

Again, we've written about this on countless occasions and this post is not meant to imply that "the Comex is about to break" or that "there is a run on The Banks". Instead, September saw the continuation of two trends of which you need to be aware. Comex "deliveries" are up dramatically in 2017 and JPM continues to stand down.

First, take a look at the historical pattern of "deliveries" during the so-called "delivery months" of March, May, July, September and December. Below is a summary of the "delivery" activity for 2015:

The one way we've always quantified "deliveries" here at TFMR is to consider the total amount of stated "deliveries" at the end of each month versus the total number of contracts that had been left open and allegedly "standing for delivery" at the beginning of the process. For 2015, it looked like this:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Dec14 3,950 2,975 75.3%

Mar15 3,142 2,583 82.2%

May15 3,371 2,840 84.2%

Jul15 2,699 3,637 134.8%

Sep15 2,198 1,555 70.7%

Dec15 4,078 3,939 96.6%

As you can see, the only outlier in 2015 was the month of July where nearly 1,000 additional contracts materialized requesting immediate "delivery". Other than that, it was a rather orderly process.

Now, let's look at the summaries for 2016.

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar16 3,804 1,356 35.6%

May16 5,603 2,716 48.5%

Jul16 2,957 2,474 83.7%

Sep16 3,412 3,215 94.2%

Dec16 3,056 3,980 130.2%

Again, a rather mundane year of silver "deliveries" with one exception. This time, the month of December saw an "oversubscription". Where Jul15 had seen "deliveries" exceed standing by 938 contracts, Dec16 saw the same exception to the tune of 924 contracts. Other than that, it was another somewhat orderly year.

So let's move on to consider the "delivery" action in 2017 to see if anything unusual is taking place:

Contract Total Standing Total "Deliveries" Percentage

Mar17 7,299 3,872 53.1%

May17 3,360 4,657 138.6%

Jul17 2,423 3,287 135.7%

Sep17 4,103 6,575 160.2%

Well now. This is beginning to look a bit different, isn't it? Go back up and review the data for 2015 and 2016. Note that only one month in five ever shows a "delivery" total in excess of the amount of contracts still open before First Notice Day. And now, if we include last December, we've seen this occur in four of the past five months with the most recent "delivery month" of September seeing the largest percentage "oversubscription" yet at 160.2%

And when we look at it in absolute terms, the "deliveries" for last month get even more interesting. Note that there were 4,103 contracts still open when the contract went off the board on August 30. At 5,000 ounces per contract, that's a total potential "delivery" obligation of 20,515,000 ounces of silver or about 638 metric tonnes. By the end of the month, the Comex had actually "delivered" 6,575 contracts for 32,875,000 ounces of silver or about 1023 metric tonnes.

So, what's the deal here? Why the sudden rush in 2017 to jump the queue and take immediate "delivery" instead of simply waiting until the next "delivery month"? Could it indicate wholesale physical tightness? Could it indicate a lack of trust amongst The Banks? Could it indicate absolutely nothing?

Well, one thing we know for certain is that this anomaly is not being caused by the House or proprietary account of JPMorgan. Recall that in March we caught JPM blatantly exceeding that stated front-month position limits for Comex silver. We wrote about it at the time and even went so far as to file a formal complaint with the CFTC:

Back in July, we next noticed that the House Account of JPMorgan had completely discontinued all "delivery" activity in Comex silver:

Well guess what...that trend has continued through September. See below:

So, at the end of the day, what do we make of all this? I guess that's up to you, the reader, to decide. No doubt "deliveries" in Comex silver have increased dramatically in 2017 but what is a "delivery" anyway? Is it actual metal or just an exchange of warehouse receipts between Banks, made to create the illusion of physical delivery for their paper derivative market? And does this increase in "deliveries" translate to physical demand and Comex stress or is it just emblematic of the general increase in total Comex silver open interest?

These are all interesting questions and, unfortunately, these deliberately-opaque "markets" make it impossible to state the answers with certainty. One thing is certain, however, and that is the notion that no institution built upon fraud, lies and deceit will stand indefinitely. Eventually, this current paper derivative pricing scheme will fail as true physical demand overwhelms The Banks' ability to manage their unallocated and fractional reserve system. For that day, we continue to prepare accordingly.


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Oct 4, 2017 - 7:37am

Artemis Resources Short Term Valuation ARV.AX ARTTF

HotCopper post by Thunder54 on short term valuation:

Short term I think ARV should be valued at 20% to 23% of Novo, we have 1.5km each of mapped ground being tested, they have 8km extension 100% we have 5.5km 50%, so we own 23% of the complete assumed and known strike.

The canadians will say Novo own blah and blah 5mill kilometers of land, I say probably do and when they go explore it and map it, then it will add to their cap once it's confirmed, right we are valuing what is know, being explored for, ARV has good ground and might have a billion dollar cobalt deposit aswell, but no body gives a fly fark about it nor should they.

So 23% of novo, they are running at $8 right now 197million share fully diluted 1.5Billion dollars, so give us $300mill today and I say thats evenly price short term I hope as our register tightens we close the gap.

Long term that's not something I am too keen to say honestly, cause you start talking certain level of numbers and people starting looking at you like your abit of a dxxxx and I would honestly probably do the same.

But I am used to being looked at like a dxxxx on here so * it lets go for it, now we are valuing long term here 1 years so are we talking 1.5km or 7km of strike? Big difference there, who knows will do both.

So whats the prize if it all goes to plan 50% of this..


How do we value a major company well they are valued on production and profits, now in my other long post I explained how I think these discoveries will have lower costs than majors around $300USD I estimated all in, majors average over $880 USD all in last year quite a jump, so assuming this is real we will atleast match them on potential profits, in reality we beat them to death, but anyway that box ticked.

We have alook at the grade/reserves and how much market values economical reserves


Key word there economical reserves some people message me thunder omg this is 4Moz deposit is amazing only $15mill Mcap..... but is it 4Moz that make $500 an ounce or 4Moz that loses you $500 an ounce, case in point BLK huge resource can't make a buck.

So Majors are valued at $225 for every economical ounce in their reserves on average this isn't perfect as all ounces aren't created equal, but seeing as how our ounces will be most economical around it's a good base for us.

So everything goes perfect prudys is real consistent drills out well, a realistic grade that is achievable from what we have seen so far 10g/t

10 g/t x 1.5km is 6.5Moz x $225 an ounce thats $1,462,500,000 USD

On the ultimate high side 10 g/t x 7km is 29Moz x 225 an ounce thats $6,525,000,000 USD

Of coure there will be other big factors like production size and AISC these are just my initial targets before PFS/DFS come in simply based on economical reserves, once studies are in times those numbers by 2 or 3.

Thats the overall prize and we have other land to lots to come in the years ahead this drilling in 11 days will be life changing if it's bad we all lose money, done that plenty of times before, but if it's good if it's good hold on sheet is gonna get hectic real quick.

Oct 3, 2017 - 6:39pm


Luke Z Rudkowski posted this from a 4chan chat warning about LV


look i feel bad for some of you on this website. so i'll let you in on a little secret. if you live in las vegas or henderson stay inside tomorrow. don't go anywhere where there are large groups of people. also if you see three blacks vans parked next to each other immediately leave the area. you're welcome

to clarify i won't be doing anything to harm anyone. i'm not a killer and i never will be one.

it's called the "high incident project". they want to make the american public think that places with extremely high security aren't safe. they are trying to create more regulations. you will see laws proposed within the next few years to put up more metal detectors and other security devices. media and politicians will be saying places with lots of police need even more police. i can't guarantee anything will happen tomorrow but las vegas is on their minds.

if their plan is successful state of nevada will pass a law in the future making all casinos have mandatory metal detectors and backscatter machines. soon after a federal law will be passed to put these machines in universities, high schools, federal buildings, you name it. osi systems and chertoff are the main producers of these machines. sometime around 2020 chertoff and osi will merge into a single company. after they merge the owners will sell off all their stock and make billions in profit. mr chertoff has been in contact with sheldon adelson. mr adelson will become a huge sponsor of these machines and he will be the first to put them in his casinos when the law passes. this is my last message for now. don't expect me to return anytime soon

Oct 3, 2017 - 6:36pm

In the year 2525

Zager and Evans - In The Year 2525
Oct 3, 2017 - 6:15pm

News from 2025


Ozone created by electric cars now killing millions
in the seventh largest Country
in the world,
Mexifornia, formerly known as California

White minorities still trying to have English
recognized as the third language.

Spotted Owl plague threatens Northwestern
United States crops and livestock.

Baby conceived naturally!
Scientists stumped.

Couple petitions court to reinstate heterosexual marriage.

Iran still closed off;
physicists estimate it will take at least 10 more years
before radioactivity decreases to safe levels.

France pleads for global help
after being taken over by Jamaica
No other country comes forward to help
the beleaguered nation!

Last Castro finally dies at age 112;
Cuban cigars can now be imported legally,
but President Chelsea Clinton has banned all smoking.

George Z. Bush says he will run for President in 2060.

Postal Service raises price of first class stamp to $17.89
and reduces mail delivery to Wednesdays only.

Average weight of Americans drops to 250 lbs.

85-year $75.8 billion study finds:
Diet and exercise is the key to weight loss.

Global cooling blamed for citrus crop failure
for third consecutive year in Mexifornia and Floruba.

Abortion clinics now available in every High School
in United States.

Senate still blocking drilling in ANWR even though
gas is selling for 4532 Pesos per liter and
gas stations are only open on Tuesdays and Fridays.

Massachusetts executes last remaining conservative.

Supreme Court rules any punishment of criminals
violates their civil rights.

A Couple Finally Had Sexual Harmony .
They had simultaneous Headaches.

Average height of NBA players is now nine feet seven inches
with only 5
illegitimate children.

New federal law requires that all nail clippers,
screwdrivers, fly swatters and rolled-up newspapers
must be registered by January 2060.

IRS sets lowest tax rate at 75 percent.

Floruba voters still having trouble with voting machines.

Oct 3, 2017 - 6:08pm
seneca sam
Oct 3, 2017 - 4:23pm

Escobal Silver Mine

As a pounded and sorry Tahoe Resources investor, I know all to well that there Escobal Silver mine in Guatamala has been off line for at least a couple of months now due to legal wranglings and access road protests. I believe this was the second biggest silver mine in the world (at least top 5)...and produced 20 million oz of Silver before operations suspended. I wonder if this could be starting to crimp available physical supply.....Or there are enough above ground stocks to easily sop up this production loss

Oct 3, 2017 - 4:21pm

Las Vegas massacre...

Lots of videos out on Youtube. It sure looks like the "official" story as reported by the MSM (and they call themselves "reporters!!) is shot so full of holes it couldn't contain a drop of, water.

Oct 3, 2017 - 4:05pm

Disappointing NOVO today?

Up 17.5% yesterday?

Could only get 13.9% today?

Nice big green volume also.

This is better than bitcoin?


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Oct 3, 2017 - 3:52pm

Investment Research Dynamics link above

I wrote that IRD article about the new sub prime ghouls at Citadel now surfacing. Their plans are to harvest as many people's loans and property as they can before the real estate, bond and banking system goes Tango Uniform The goal is billions of dollars loaned a year.

As a former banker and able to sniff out garbage loans like the ones offered by Citadel, I doubt if anyone on these boards would take loan like this The subprime lending system offered by Citadel is a giant canary in the minefield, fortelling a major banking and real estate crash once these loans infest the mortgage food chain. That event might take 12 months, maybe a little longer.

Having been through 3 systemic subprime failures since the late 1970s, I can say with confidence this time will be different.

It'll be way worse.

Keep stacking Try to reduce or avoid mortgage debt. Eliminate other debt if possible. And shift cash or other capital assets to quality hard assets.

You don't want people like me knocking at your door.

Oct 3, 2017 - 3:45pm

Eric is on fire!

Garibaldi 10 cents to $2.20 - since July!!!

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