More Commitment of Traders Perspective

47
Mon, Jul 24, 2017 - 10:33am

We all saw a lot of commentary and "analysis" over the weekend regarding the latest Commitment of Traders report. Again, these numbers are most important when considered through the lens of historical perspective and that's what we attempt to show you today.

It's going to be a long and busy week. From Fedlines to Durable Goods to GDP...there's a lot going on. And Lord knows what lies ahead politically and geo-politically! Here's just a brief summary:

The metals have begun the week just slightly to the upside and this is nice. More on this later today and as we go through the week, of course.

However, for today I'd like to simply concentrate on the two charts below. Again, the only real value in analyzing the CoT reports is in being able to reference the current positioning versus historical data and price. For me, the best way to do this is to simply lay some data onto a weekly price chart.

Let's start with Comex Digital Gold. If you listened to last Friday's podcast, then you know that:

  • At 157,094 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest seen since the survey taken July 28, 2015
  • At 153,064 contracts, the Gold Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since December 1, 2015
  • At 73,635 contracts, the Gold Commercial NET short position is the smallest since January 26, 2016

But how does this all appear on the chart? Are these levels historically significant? Please take the time to expand (and perhaps print) this chart. Take a good, long look and decide for yourself.

Now that's all very interesting. However, where the historical perspective really jumps out at you is when you consider the chart/data combo for Comex Digital Silver. Again, as of the report released last Friday and surveyed last Tuesday:

  • At 81,400 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest ever reported. In fact, the size of this position is now 27% greater than the previous all-time high of 63,993 seen on July 7, 2015
  • At 66,398 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since August 25, 2015
  • At 88,312 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS short position is the smallest seen since January 19, 2016
  • At 21,914 contracts, the Silver Commercial NET short position is the smallest since September 15, 2015

As in CDG, if we plot some data and price together, the result looks like this. Again, please take some time to give this chart your full consideration.

So what does this mean? Well it certainly appears that chances are high we see some significant rallies from here. As important technical indicators such as moving averages get bullishly crossed, these massive Large Spec short positions are ripe for a squeeze. Shorts get covered (that's one buy) and then a long may be established, too (that's a second buy). All of this buying pressure will drive prices higher in the weeks ahead and this coincidentally falls right into line with our forecast of a failing 2017 narrative (GAN2017) and 2017 metal price highs in Q4.

Have a great day!

TF

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  47 Comments

mavens
Jul 24, 2017 - 10:34am

First?

Hi Monkey!

silver10sguy
Jul 24, 2017 - 10:50am

Charts Point Out What is Coming

Well done Turd! Looking forward to booking some profits in the miners. Wondering still the outcome of Andy Maguire's prediction in the coming days and weeks.

Jul 24, 2017 - 10:54am

I couldn't take it anymore

Ole Turd is now the proud owner of ONE Sep17 silver $17.25 call. Cost me about $725.

ArtL
Jul 24, 2017 - 10:59am

3rd

3

Jul 24, 2017 - 11:00am

patiently waiting....

Am patiently waiting for Pining to photoshop Hillary's maniacal face onto/into an image of a swiriling hurricane.

However, as everyone already knows, the new hurricane's parents actually named it after Sir Edmund Hillary...

indiana rod
Jul 24, 2017 - 11:23am

New Slogan

New Democrat slogan

(Thank you, Papa John---better ingredients---better pizza)

Better Skills

Better Jobs

Better Wages

Home delivery available

Call DNC and better skills, better jobs and better wages will be delivered to your door.

Jihk2431
Jul 24, 2017 - 11:32am

Very compelling set up here - thank you Craig for breaking

this down so well. Good luck with your father this week and I hope Mrs. F is on the mend.

Jul 24, 2017 - 11:34am

Ahem....

Jihk2431TF
Jul 24, 2017 - 11:39am

CME is telling the market to get out of the way?

An another interesting thread to this mosaic that is forming.

flipper22TF
Jul 24, 2017 - 11:46am

Son of a Gun

I'm still getting set up so that I can buy a call in the futures market.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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