More Commitment of Traders Perspective

47
Mon, Jul 24, 2017 - 10:33am

We all saw a lot of commentary and "analysis" over the weekend regarding the latest Commitment of Traders report. Again, these numbers are most important when considered through the lens of historical perspective and that's what we attempt to show you today.

It's going to be a long and busy week. From Fedlines to Durable Goods to GDP...there's a lot going on. And Lord knows what lies ahead politically and geo-politically! Here's just a brief summary:

The metals have begun the week just slightly to the upside and this is nice. More on this later today and as we go through the week, of course.

However, for today I'd like to simply concentrate on the two charts below. Again, the only real value in analyzing the CoT reports is in being able to reference the current positioning versus historical data and price. For me, the best way to do this is to simply lay some data onto a weekly price chart.

Let's start with Comex Digital Gold. If you listened to last Friday's podcast, then you know that:

  • At 157,094 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest seen since the survey taken July 28, 2015
  • At 153,064 contracts, the Gold Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since December 1, 2015
  • At 73,635 contracts, the Gold Commercial NET short position is the smallest since January 26, 2016

But how does this all appear on the chart? Are these levels historically significant? Please take the time to expand (and perhaps print) this chart. Take a good, long look and decide for yourself.

Now that's all very interesting. However, where the historical perspective really jumps out at you is when you consider the chart/data combo for Comex Digital Silver. Again, as of the report released last Friday and surveyed last Tuesday:

  • At 81,400 contracts, the Large Spec GROSS short position is the largest ever reported. In fact, the size of this position is now 27% greater than the previous all-time high of 63,993 seen on July 7, 2015
  • At 66,398 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS long position is the largest since August 25, 2015
  • At 88,312 contracts, the Silver Commercial GROSS short position is the smallest seen since January 19, 2016
  • At 21,914 contracts, the Silver Commercial NET short position is the smallest since September 15, 2015

As in CDG, if we plot some data and price together, the result looks like this. Again, please take some time to give this chart your full consideration.

So what does this mean? Well it certainly appears that chances are high we see some significant rallies from here. As important technical indicators such as moving averages get bullishly crossed, these massive Large Spec short positions are ripe for a squeeze. Shorts get covered (that's one buy) and then a long may be established, too (that's a second buy). All of this buying pressure will drive prices higher in the weeks ahead and this coincidentally falls right into line with our forecast of a failing 2017 narrative (GAN2017) and 2017 metal price highs in Q4.

Have a great day!

TF

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  47 Comments

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AGXIIKMarkedtofuture
Jul 25, 2017 - 1:08am

WOW Debbie looks like

Howie Mandel and a long night of rum and blow--after he smashed the hard drives with his face.

Fred Hayek
Jul 24, 2017 - 11:10pm

Cuba versus Hong Kong or Singapore

When you think of the tremendous economic progress of Hong Kong and Singapore, tiny city states with only a miniscule fraction of the resources of Cuba, the ongoing poverty of Cuba seems inexcusable.

canary
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:49pm

@Marcward....LOL

My girlfriend once told me, when I wasn't happy about something: "What's so strange about it?...the strong, connected and powerful always abused and exploited the rest of population, through the history".

OOOBuck
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:39pm

Marcrward - I'm so happy to see

you didn't include anarchy and barbarism in that list. I just couldn't handle that.

All kidding aside.... even Vanuatu has a government. No taxes, too much religion, short life expectancy and no social safety net.... but they've got government (and rhythm I'm told).

Marcrward
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:33pm

slavism

communism, capitalism, marxism, facism, librealism....

Just a ven diagram and all those labels fall under SLAVISM.

benque
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:32pm

Russian TV

Hey AC, don't be surprised to see Russians portrayed as nazis by the Western MSM, on the heels of that news. I can just see them salivating over such a juicy prospect.

Really, 8 times out of 10, when I turn on my TV (default to all news station) there is a Russia/Trump story on. If there is some other story airing, I know that only minutes away is another Russia/Trump bashing story. The takeover of the press is really quite frightening, for all that it reminds us of historically, and what it implies for the future.

canary
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:16pm

COT picture is a priority to me

The monster banks bet strongly on higher gold/silver and weaker JPY...Sure, we have options week, perhaps little dump tomorrow and Wednesday, but not much lower from here. We will see GREEN miners everywhere, soon.

The commercials will be happy to see the specs adding new shorts...

Edit...Sunshine, rainbow and lollipops in front of us (chuck Butler).

Angry Chef
Jul 24, 2017 - 4:03pm

Russian TV begins to redpill its citizens about the political...

...power of the Rothschilds. Won’t find this on BBC, CNN, ABC, NBC et al, they prefer to keep the populace dumb.

https://investmentwatchblog.com/russian-tv-begins-to-redpill-its-citizen...

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benque
Jul 24, 2017 - 3:51pm

But, but...Cuba

Was embargoed against trade only by USA, I believe. Canada and practically every other country on Earth could trade with and visit Cuba freely, for nearly 30 years now. Prior to that, a showcase of communist success on America's doorstep, propped up at any cost by USSR.

Cuba has exported very good doctors and medical know-how for years, and all those doctors send foreign currency home to Mom, etc (I know this from first-hand experience). Practically everyone I know, has also vacationed in Cuba over the last fifteen years, spending vast quantities of cash. Just a few examples of the many, which allowed that totalitarian country to more-or-less thrive (at the expense of it's poor, of course...what's new with that?) for so many years after USSR collapse.

sander25nl
Jul 24, 2017 - 3:49pm

both

Aug17 CDG options go off Wednesday

Aug17 goes off the board Friday. Trades first notice next Monday.

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