Watching Gold Into The Close

Fri, Jul 21, 2017 - 9:55am

We've been watching CDG climb all week toward the important level of $1250. With price butting up against some key technical indicators, we'll want to watch price into the close to see where we end the week.

First of all, I'm at MamaFerg's house this morning and will be here again for a day next week as we work with PapaFerg. So, unfortunately, we'll need to keep this post somewhat brief.

You've no doubt seen the action so far today in both USDJPY and CDG. With USDJPY falling to new weekly lows (I have a last of 111.32), the pressure to move CDG up and through the important 50-day and 100-day MAs is building.

As far as USDJPY goes...Let's see what the rest of the day brings. DO NOT be surprised is another "hook" develops over the next hour or so as the G-3 almost always try to rally this pair during NYSE hours. However, the damage has been done and, unless a huge rally and bounce develops today, the pair are set to paint a weekly close below their 200-day. 

And so here we are. The falling USDJPY has allowed HFT buying on CDG. We bested the 200-day MA back on Monday and we mentioned than that the next, critical test would be the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs near $1250. Why is this critical? Because many of the Large Specs take their trading cues from the positioning of price versus these indicators. By moving price back above all three MAs, the Large Specs will begin to cover their massive GROSS short position and even switch to being long. The result is considerable NET buying pressure and the potential for a steadily (maybe even rapidly) rising price.

If you've been following along, then you know that we've expected a steady climb in Comes Digital Silver until it finally encounters its own 50-day near $16.60. Well, finally, we're getting close. Just as in CDG, climbing above the MAs will be the key to setting off some Large Spec short covering and, WHEN this happens, price could really accelerate upward for a few days. So, keep your eye on that 50-day as that's the first hurdle that needs to be overcome.

So, as we wrap, yields are down and the USDJPY is down so the Comex metals are up. While we should almost expect an intraday reversal soon in the USDJPY, we are putting the finishing touches on a positive week regardless. My plan is to be back at Turdfork by mid-afternoon so there should be no problem producing your weekly chart and CoT review. Therefore, please check back later and we'll see how things finish the week.

Thanks for reading and we'll have more for you later.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Jul 21, 2017 - 10:01am

Daily Smack Down

Same time, same place, no matter what is going on in the markets or the world. Our handlers will show us the way as they steal something every day.

Jul 21, 2017 - 10:02am


At th VA keep stacking

Great update. Take care of PapaFerg

Jul 21, 2017 - 10:20am
Jul 21, 2017 - 10:29am



What's going on with the miners?
I'm quite surprised by there weak performance. 

Do you except more firework in the coming weeks?

Jul 21, 2017 - 10:33am

it's fourth...

gotta have something dancing !

Ben Stackin
Jul 21, 2017 - 10:33am

Fidelity website

very slow, not giving quotes, balances, positions in a timely manner..... hmmmmmm.... DDOS attack? PTB's trying to slow down a rush for the exits?? Anyone else experiencing this?

********* better now ********* 10:33 EDT

Jul 21, 2017 - 10:53am

Gold and $1250

Obvious how CDG is struggling with the 50 and 100 day MAs

Miners a reflection of the slow grind, too. Just be patient. They'll react in due time if we're correct about eventually squeezing the Spec shorts.

Jul 21, 2017 - 11:06am


Any turdites at freedomfest in vegas this weekend?

Jul 21, 2017 - 11:30am
Jul 21, 2017 - 11:37am

Why the Jr miners will have to rise

Majors reserves have fallen dramatically, 50% since 2010.

Jul 21, 2017 - 11:38am

Wall st. battles D.C. to keep

Wall st. battles D.C. to keep the money flowing

"This year the federal government will spend more than 4 trillion dollars, and that represents well over one-fifth of our national GDP. "
"they found that five out of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the entire country are suburbs of Washington D.C.…"
"I once wrote an article that listed 97 different ways that various levels of government get money out of us each year, and so getting rid of the federal income tax would still leave 96 ways for the politicians to extract money from us."
Washington D.C. Is Essentially Just A Gigantic Money Machine

OK, it's real simple. The swamp wants to keep the money flowing. David Stockman has an excellent article on how this money flows. Armstrong writes that Treasury debt will crash. His models are "confidence" models. I'll excerpt the Stockman article but, you should read the whole thing. Keep "confidence" in the back of your mind while reading.

"The stand by Senators Lee and Moran was much bigger than putting the latest iteration of McConnell-Care out of its misery. The move rang the bell loud and clear that the Imperial City has become fiscally ungovernable"
"the founders wanted a national government that was hobbled by levels of hurdles and vetoes."
"So when Woodrow Wilson embarked the nation on the route of Empire in April 1917 and FDR launched the domestic interventionism of the New Deal in March 1933, the die was cast. It was only a matter of time before the disconnect between a robust Big Government and the structural infirmities of Madison’s republican contraption resulted in a deadly impasse."
"The Fed has now backed itself into a corner and is out of dry powder. "
"First up is the imminent debt ceiling crisis. Republicans will never reach agreement on a bill to raise the debt ceiling by at least the $2 trillion that would be needed to get through November 2018. That’s because the Freedom Caucus conservatives would never agree to a clean debt ceiling bill. "

"Meadows said that he recently attended a meeting of eight of the most conservative Senate and House lawmakers about how to handle the debt ceiling and that not once did they consider the idea of backing Mnuchin’s proposal for a clean debt-ceiling increase."
"Even if Trump were to agree to a quid pro quo with Democrats to get votes for a debt ceiling increase, it would soon be surpassed by a far bigger consequence. It would be the complete implosion of any functioning Republican majorities on Capitol Hill."
"As far as we can tell, both Secretary Mnuchin and chief economic advisor Gary Cohn (and son-in-law Jared Kushner) are lifelong Democrats. They are individuals who have no fiscal policy principles whatsoever — except doing whatever is necessary to keep the stock market rising."

"They would likely lead the Donald into a fatal debt deal with the Dems based on the doctrine that the “credit” of the U.S. must be preserved at all hazards. "
"The more likely case, however, is that the Treasury’s cash — which now stands at $168 billion — will run-out before they get to a stop-gap debt ceiling increase. That would cause the Treasury to unleash the nuclear tool of spending prioritization and allocation of incoming revenues to the highest uses (debt service, social security payments and military payroll)."

"One former Treasury official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive agency deliberations, said officials are now “brushing up on options in the ‘crazy drawer."
"Treasury officials have designed plans to prioritize payments to government bondholders so that if the government runs short on cash it could avoid defaulting on U.S. debt.

Such a scenario would be very difficult to manage because some bills would either be delayed or not paid — making it necessary to prevent an actual default. " Remember confidence.
"If there’s any lesson from the 2008 crisis, it’s that entitled elites and robo-machines on Wall Street do not cater to a Congress that’s not doing their bidding. That became clear when the stock market dropped by upwards of 800 Dow points during the fifteen minute interval when the first TARP vote was being tallied (and voted down)."

"The non-compliance with Wall Street demands for protecting the credit of the U.S. at all costs and the sight of political disarray in Washington will come as a shock."
"Last year’s collections during the back 78 days of the fiscal year amounted to $7.6 billion per calendar day."
"Washington has now spent $2.6 trillion through the end of May, or about $11 billion per calendar day. So call the cash burn rate $3 billion per day,"
"The first round of prioritization and allocation will only be the precursor. It will come when Senator Schumer stands with a hapless Donald Trump in the Rose Garden announcing that the debt ceiling will be increased enough to get through the November 2018 election."
"At that point there will be no dip to buy. The political and fiscal crisis will become a permanent disaster in the Imperial City and the dip on Wall Street will become an extended cavern."

What this means is; Wall street will fight the GOV to get what they want. There is no money left and they will not get what they want. Their reaction will crash the markets. When / if FED GOV fails to uphold the bond market, confidence will be lost. Wall street will tie Trump and congress in knots,,,, and hasten their downfall.

Jul 21, 2017 - 11:49am

Jr. Miners, Silver Miners, Oil

all exploration down. R&D scrapped. True pricing demands recognition and the piper will be paid.

Jul 21, 2017 - 12:18pm

what are the consequences that we will

see immediately with the dollar's downward move..?

under 94 today or Monday for example..

how does the dollar get propped up?


Jul 21, 2017 - 12:23pm

USD weakness...

Because of the strength in EURO...Draghi gave investors a bone yesterday...tightening in September...followed by some dovish talk (ignored by investors).

Jul 21, 2017 - 12:41pm

Mother of all symmetrical triangles

Getting pretty close to big move!

Angry Chef
Jul 21, 2017 - 1:12pm

Vladimir Putin and the Hamburg Testament

This is a good article. Why anybody believes anything coming out of the New York Times or Washington Post or MSM is beyond me. I have watched this Ukraine, Syria, North Korea situation as closely as I can thru blogs that I trust are unbiased as possible. I knew when the whole Ukraine coup took place and Russia annexed the Crimea that Russia would NEVER allow the situation to unfold as the Globalists wished. Never ! I watched in horror as the CIA backed ISIS serial murderers were on the verge of destroying Syria. All for the " Project For a Greater Israel " fail. All thanks to Russia intervening. And we have watched the North Korea situation slowly get resolved ( hope and pray it succeeds ) with the intervention of Russia and China.

The West is not going to be saved by the likes of Donald Trump, Angela Merkel, Macron, or Justin Hairdoo. Our only hope is that men like Putin can help save us from our pathetic selves.

argentuman Ben Stackin
Jul 21, 2017 - 1:14pm

Fidelity website functioning again

Ben Stackin, I had the same issue with Fidelity's site earlier today for at least 30 minutes. It was rather disconcerting, but the issue seems to have been resolved. This probably is similar to what it would be like under a DDOS attack - or for that matter an EMP attack or any kind of major disruption. Hell, even during a panic sell just trying to logon, no less getting to the exits will probably be a hair-raising experience.

Jul 21, 2017 - 1:26pm

OI (final)

Gold Future -79

Silver Future -1,473

With price of gold and silver higher yesterday, likely the speculative shorts covering positions...Same today.

The longer they wait, the bigger loses will face.smiley

Jul 21, 2017 - 1:55pm

Gold in Japan, a Nation Unexplored for Many Years

Bob Moriarty
Jul 21, 2017

Even though Japan, being on the Ring of Fire, has a long history of high-grade gold mines, the industry has been mostly quiet since the middle of World War II when gold mining in the country stopped.

The highest-grade operating gold mine in the world today is located in Japan with a head grade of over 40 g/t gold. That’s the Hishikari Gold Mine located in Kagoshima.

I recently traveled to northern Japan to visit some gold projects owned by Irving Resources (IRV-C). Akiko Levinson runs the company; Quinton Hennigh is a director and technical advisor. Toshi Takaoka, former VP of Sumitomo Metal Mining is the advisor.

Akiko Levinson and Quinton Hennigh first got together at Gold Canyon Resources which Akiko had been running for many years after the death of her husband who was the president and founder. Until Quinton Hennigh stepped in to advise Gold Canyon, the company didn’t make much progress.

Quinton and his team spent eighteen months going over the technical data and rethinking the geological model. In the end the Levinson and Hennigh team took the Springpole gold deposit to about five million ounces of gold. In late 2015 First Mining Finance took over Gold Canyon with the shares eventually reaching a high of $1.31 apiece.

When First Mining took over Gold Canyon they let Akiko spin off the non-core properties into a new company named Irving Resources. This is where it gets interesting and where the opportunity lies. For each 100 shares an investor held in Gold Canyon, they received 3.33 shares in Irving. As a result, there were thousands of shareholders holding tiny positions. Now they were all held at a profit, after all, they were given the shares.

Over the past fifteen months, those tiny share positions have been sold into the market. After all, the investors got the shares for free and could either sell them or buy more shares. This has created an incredible opportunity for patient investors. Seven months ago, in mid-December of 2016 Irving posted a press release saying they had taken grab samples that assayed as high as 480 g/t Au and 9660 g/t Ag. For those who can’t do math in their head, that rock is worth over $24,000 a ton.

Fourteen of the samples graded over 10-g/t gold and thirteen samples graded over 200-g/t silver. If those were significant intervals of drill core, the stock would have doubled over night. The stock didn’t do anything, proving that no one reads press releases. I did an interview in late December and that finally moved the shares off top dead center. They did double overnight.

Since January of this year, the share price has drifted lower and people who put in stink bids, such as me, have been able to make a decent position in an incredibly illiquid company. 88% of the shares are closely held by the strongest of strong shareholders in a dozen hands.

On the tour we went to where the original samples were taken. From the press release I was given the impression that Irving had taken over a couple of the old gold mines in Hokkaido and there would be a lot of exploration required.

On the Omui project, Irving did a deal on an existing 2.98 square km mining license with the long-term license holder. They also filed thirty-nine prospecting applications covering about 132 square km. We traveled to see the small mining license where the owner had dug a small trench to show us the high-grade veins. That pretty much blew me away. I had gotten the impression Irvine needed a lot of time and money spent on preliminary ground exploration.

Wrong. The high-grade vein was covered with six inches of dirt. The material was identical to pictures Quinton sent me when he put out the press release in December of the $24,000 rock. And fifteen feet away, there was another identical high-grade vein. Apparently when the mine was in production they had so much material to mine, they just didn’t bother with a lot of the veins.

It’s going to take time and patience to put together all the permits for Japan. After all, there is no infrastructure in place; it’s been seventy-four years since serious gold mining took place in the country notwithstanding Hishikari. The bureaucrats to sign the approvals for exploration and mining literally have to be trained.

But once the permits are in place, Irving is prepared to go right to mining. Japanese are very sensitive about the use of cyanide and it probably would be impossible to get a permit for the use of cyanide. Irving plans on doing exactly what Hishikari does, they will ship the silica rich ore directly to a smelter. They can get $80 a ton for the flux and would be paid 95% of spot on the gold and silver. That doesn’t sound like much but when ore is used as flux there is essentially a 100% recovery. No matter how good the ore or how good the mill design, 95% recovery is always exceptional.

While we were at the Omui projects Irving management learned that the owner had brought in an excavator years before and done a serious trench across hundreds of meters of the forest service road. The Forest Service had a fit and demanded he fill it back in at once. He did but he took pictures and made up a map of the multiple veins he found. Later in the evening we looked over the documents and it was pretty obvious that if you could learn how to fall off a bike, you could spot drill holes at Omui. The property has multiple high-grade veins that come near surface and are close together.

When the permits arrive, Irving will drill and the results will be spectacular. However with a mining license already in hand, they will be shipping ore right away. If you can bring in a D-11 or big excavator and immediately start producing revenue, you don’t need to wait for a 43-101, you can get right to it.

The company is more than well cashed up with $6.5 million Canadian in the bank and about 14 million warrants, all in the money. That would bring in another $5.6 million. If they can’t get into production and develop a resource for $12 million, they are in the wrong business.

This company is the perfect team. In Japan they have the foremost geologist in the country working for them. The president of the company, Akiko Levinson, is Japanese. Their lead advisor, Quinton Hennigh is, in my mind, the best geologist in the world. He has a history of creating wealth for shareholders working with Akiko. They have money; they have a mining license on a known high-grade gold and silver property.

And according to Quinton, on one of their other nearby projects, they have a sinter that shows gold, covering something interesting. He’s dying to start punching some holes in that sinter. In Nevada some of the highest-grade gold mines are epithermal vein systems covered by a sinter.

One day soon the weak hands selling their shares cheap are going to dry up and over night with no news, the stock is going to double. When their permits come in and they start shipping flux, it’s going to double again.

Irving is not an advertiser. I do own shares so I am biased as I can be. I don’t share in your profits so I can’t share in your losses. Only you can be responsible for your own investment decisions.

Irving Resources
IRV-C $.70 (July 20, 2017)
IRVRF OTCBB 31.9 million shares 
Irving Resources website


Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold

Dr. P. Metals
Jul 21, 2017 - 2:01pm

Anyone remember the gold old days

when if Au was up $10, JNUG would be up 20%?

well, no so much anylonger...

Jul 21, 2017 - 2:25pm

Friday afternoon

Watching gold and silver this Friday afternoon is truly enjoyable. The noose appears to be tightening, and the reluctance growing to carry shorts through the weekend.

Dr. P. Metals
Jul 21, 2017 - 2:26pm


Jul 21, 2017 - 2:35pm

Mining shares should rallying into the close....

Lots for the COMEX shorts to mull over this weekend.

seneca sam
Jul 21, 2017 - 3:13pm

Kitco Gold Chart

Looking at the Kitco Live Gold chart this morning, I noticed that the last 3 days the price of CDG starts to rise just before 8a, when New York opens, and rises about $4-5 over the next 1.5-2 h. Small move, but pattern is there. Maybe banks are covering shorts to put a few ticks of pressure on the specs before trading opens.....

Jul 21, 2017 - 3:22pm

Jul 21, 2017 - 3:36pm

Oh my gosh

The CoT!!!

Jul 21, 2017 - 3:37pm

Oh my gosh

Please do tell

Jul 21, 2017 - 3:39pm


At first glance looks like gold pretty neutral, silver even better than last week with specs taking on more shorts. Looking forward to TF's podcast today and COT analysis.

Angry Chef
Jul 21, 2017 - 3:52pm

Dr. P, Metals...

...thanks for that blacklisted news article. Ken O'Keefe is right. All of Congress needs to be arrested immediately.

Here's another good article on the criminals running our countries.

Jul 21, 2017 - 3:57pm

The specs added even more shorts on Silver...

The next COT will likely show modest deterioration....The large specs are "slow learners"....

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Key Economic Events Week of 1/21

1/22 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
1/24 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMI
1/24 10:00 ET Leading Econ Indicators
1/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
1/25 10:00 ET New Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 1/14

1/15 8:30 am ET Producer Price Index
1/15 8:30 am ET Empire State Mfg. Index
1/16 8:30 am ET Retail Sales
1/16 8:30 am ET Import Price Index
1/17 8:30 am ET Housing Starts
1/17 8:30 am ET Philly Fed
1/18 9:15 am ET Capacity Utilization and Ind. Prod.

Key Economic Events Week of 1/7

1/7 10:00 ET ISM Services Index
1/7 10:00 ET Factory Orders
1/9 2:00 ET December FOMC minutes 
1/10 Speeches from CGP, Goons Bullard and Evans
1/11 8:30 ET CPI

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