Watching Gold Into The Close

Fri, Jul 21, 2017 - 9:55am

We've been watching CDG climb all week toward the important level of $1250. With price butting up against some key technical indicators, we'll want to watch price into the close to see where we end the week.

First of all, I'm at MamaFerg's house this morning and will be here again for a day next week as we work with PapaFerg. So, unfortunately, we'll need to keep this post somewhat brief.

You've no doubt seen the action so far today in both USDJPY and CDG. With USDJPY falling to new weekly lows (I have a last of 111.32), the pressure to move CDG up and through the important 50-day and 100-day MAs is building.

As far as USDJPY goes...Let's see what the rest of the day brings. DO NOT be surprised is another "hook" develops over the next hour or so as the G-3 almost always try to rally this pair during NYSE hours. However, the damage has been done and, unless a huge rally and bounce develops today, the pair are set to paint a weekly close below their 200-day.

And so here we are. The falling USDJPY has allowed HFT buying on CDG. We bested the 200-day MA back on Monday and we mentioned than that the next, critical test would be the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day MAs near 50. Why is this critical? Because many of the Large Specs take their trading cues from the positioning of price versus these indicators. By moving price back above all three MAs, the Large Specs will begin to cover their massive GROSS short position and even switch to being long. The result is considerable NET buying pressure and the potential for a steadily (maybe even rapidly) rising price.

If you've been following along, then you know that we've expected a steady climb in Comes Digital Silver until it finally encounters its own 50-day near .60. Well, finally, we're getting close. Just as in CDG, climbing above the MAs will be the key to setting off some Large Spec short covering and, WHEN this happens, price could really accelerate upward for a few days. So, keep your eye on that 50-day as that's the first hurdle that needs to be overcome.

So, as we wrap, yields are down and the USDJPY is down so the Comex metals are up. While we should almost expect an intraday reversal soon in the USDJPY, we are putting the finishing touches on a positive week regardless. My plan is to be back at Turdfork by mid-afternoon so there should be no problem producing your weekly chart and CoT review. Therefore, please check back later and we'll see how things finish the week.

Thanks for reading and we'll have more for you later.


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Jul 21, 2017 - 7:10pm

Gotta love low sulphidation epithermal deposits.

Japan has got some incredible potential as an exploration district. LS/IS epithermal deposits with high grade Au/Ag are incredible targets for Junior Explorers. Japan is a great jurisdiction too. I'm concentrating on investing in nearby South Korea for similar exploration targets. This has the same sort of potential as Japan and additionally, the government subsidies a lot of the drilling and cap ex. South Korea also has similar mesothermal deposits to China's Jiadong Peninsula (recent 18MOzAu discovery). Great area to find Au/Ag.

Jul 21, 2017 - 6:15pm

SD market wrap

I urge everyone to go listen to today’s weekly market wrap podcast at SD. This week’s guest is Bill Murphy and I really like Murphy, he’s a straight shooter. He’s essentially calling out Andrew Maguire to shed more light on Bullioncoin and he’s quite skeptical as to Bulliioncoin’s impact on PMs prices. He called our little rally in PMs the past 10 days pathetic…and he’s right. Kind of depressing when you really think about it and like he says, given the weakness in the dollar this is the best PMs can do. What happens to PMs if the dollar strengthens again? Anyways a good listen and it’s good to hear opinions that keep you grounded rather than wishing for the pie-in-the-sky predictions for PMs that so many of us (myself included) are hoping come true one day.

Jul 21, 2017 - 5:21pm

Leveraged turned on head

JNUG 1.75%
USLV 3.46%

Wasn't miners supposed to be leveraged play of the metals? In 2017 it is the other way around. Fire is wet and water burns.

Jul 21, 2017 - 5:20pm
Dr. P. Metals
Jul 21, 2017 - 5:17pm
Jul 21, 2017 - 4:57pm

Finally back at Turdfork

Should have a podcast posted by 6:00 EDT or so.

Thanks for your patience.

Anb yes, the CoT is astonishing...both for what didn't happen in CDG and for a CDS Large Spec Net long position of just 9,376 contracts!

Jul 21, 2017 - 4:55pm

I bought some "junk" 90% silver halves yesterday

I thought the price looked good. I've also been shopping out some numismatics that I've always been attracted to. In the Seated Liberty coins one has to be aware of how a coin looks along with any grade assigned, along with the price. A grade designating a mint state coin may not look as good as an AU graded coin sitting right next to it.

When it comes to those numismatic purchases it's always better to buy what you enjoy with any price appreciation as a gravy.

Not to mention the variability of premium value assigned to certain coins over the years. The "junk" silver coins are at a lower premium right now yet they are also at a higher-silver price compared to December of 2015 or 2016. That I can tell the price increase in silver ate up any savings in the premiums. OR if viewed another way the premiums are saving your purchase power right now, and continued rises in silver demand will only increase those premiums.

Enjoy and keep stacking.

Jul 21, 2017 - 4:32pm

Living in one of the magical levitating home price areas

makes me wonder if bankers have agents who participate in bidding wars for homes?

Our markets for homes haven't truly recovered from 2008 criminality. Gow our society got into that mess seems to be the same process that's in full swing for auto loans but the equity invested into cars can't hold up to the confiscation techniques of the real estate market.

Look at any of the West coast home market price trends chart and imagine it overlayed on the following chart. Houston I think we have a problem.

This from Zillow;

Q1 2017 Negative Equity: Slow Progress Beats No Progress

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Jul 21, 2017 - 4:28pm

Dear Reader,

Dear Reader,

We’ve had to wait 18 months for an opportunity like this.

Gold and silver are positioning for a sizable upward move over the next few weeks and months.

Every single major buy indicator is flashing green. The last time we saw anything close to this was in December of 2015.

***Bullish sentiment is under 18%, which points to a large move higher.

***The GDX is showing a clear head-and-shoulders bottom forming, with the right shoulder trough of the pattern completing.

***The latest COTs are telling us that the precious metals have hit bottom and speculation is now at a multi-year low!

The downside at this point is nil.

It’s rare when you can say this publicly as a newsletter writer, but it’s an absolute “back up the truck” moment for gold and silver!

Let’s be strategic and smart about this.

Look for my special update Sunday night, where I am going to give you an edge on the entire market. Simply put, you’ll have the potential to make more than any other gold investor.

Best Regards,

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Daniel Ameduri

Jul 21, 2017 - 4:26pm

Two smiling Fridays in a row...

sure beats depressing weekends. Now if only they will take the miners off their leach and let em run buck wild!

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