Doldrums and Summer lows? Pining sez No!

Mon, Jun 19, 2017 - 1:13am

With analysts at most public PM websites now turning decidedly bearish, with the summer doldrums staring us in the face, with the new rate hike raising interest rates (on paper making gold less desirable as it provides no yield), and with the gold seasonals suggesting that “sell in May and go away” was the play, there is a definite bearish tilt to the sector right now. That’s why (among other things) we have a great risk-reward setup staring us in the face.

Pining thinks it’s a great place to go long (with stops)! Let me give you a few reasons why, then I'll outline the trade:


A quick review of 7 popular and publicly available precious metals analytics/trading sites, and a glance through the comments on those sites, made clear to me that there is (at least roughly) a general consensus in the metals complex right now: after failing to break through 1300, and first pushing through then falling back below the long-term downtrend line in gold, the summer doldrums are upon us and consensus sentiment has turned bearish. The two most likely scenarios I saw discussed were either (1) we languish and churn lower for the next few months following typical gold seasonals pattern into a July or August low, or we cascade from here into an earlier low, perhaps late June or early July.

I like this widespread bearishness very much. This is precisely the type of setup the metals love; wrong-foot the investing public, going against well-known patterns (because it’s never that easy in the metals) and making sure the majority of retail is not on the train and has to chase price. That’s also why the so-so COT doesn’t bother me much, that pattern has been a bit TOO clear recently and has been becoming a little too easy to trade, so I think it’s due for a wrong-foot. In fact it is this “juking the crowd” and subsequent chasing of price on the way up that provides the fuel for the best runs in the metals. This is an excellent setup from a sentiment standpoint. Just ask yourself, when was the last time the majority of retail sentiment was dead-on correct and on the right side of the trade in the metals? Thought so.

GDJX rebalancing is behind us

Regardless of where you stood on the whole GDXJ/JNUG issue, the fact remains that it is now largely in the rearview-mirror. This means a genuine, significant source of instability in the sector is now largely behind us, removing some of the unpredictability which had been a drag on both price and sentiment. Additionally, it is likely that money managers who may have previously been hesitant to allocate funds until this nonsense was sorted may now be prepared to put that money back to work, thus bringing an unexpected tailwind that could help things to the upside. If instability was a negative, then stability should be a positive. Bullish!

Crossing over of the 50,100, and 200 DMA on the Gold Daily chart:

Don’t look now, but for all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, gold is about to see the 50 DMA above the 100 DMA above the 200 DMA. This golden cross setup is seemingly timed to catch people off-guard given the poor sentiment we see now, yet will trigger buy signals for technical traders and algos. With about 60% of stock “market” volume now quants, this is not immaterial. With a massive turnover in shares last week, especially the huge volume on Fed day last Wednesday (see black arrow on chart, look at that volume level) and follow-up churning, there has been a significant rinse in the complex. Lots of longs have been spooked out of their positions, and some shorts have covered profitably. This actually looks good to me, with Quad witching just passed on Friday, and particularly the Thursday and Friday follow-on action- no waterfalls, just tons of repositioning.

The tinfoil hat wildcard, but worth a mention: Is the Fed schizophrenic or working a plan?

Traditional analysis says that when the Fed raises rates, gold craters. Yet during this recent cycle, when the Fed raised rates Gold took off. And guess what? The Fed just raised rates. Short version- Bullish!

Long version: I actually think there is a reason for this counter-intuitive recent action in gold when the Fed has raised. Traditionally, why did the Fed raise rates, and when did they do it? They raised when the economy was getting hot and genuine fears of inflation were taking hold, and they did so to cool-off inflation and that hot economy by sucking liquidity into bonds through higher yield. So with better options (yield) available, gold (which produces no yield and is an inflation hedge) went down. But recently, the Fed has raised with (1) no real signs of inflation, and (2) and a genuinely poor economic picture. So gold didn’t do what it usually does, and in fact one could argue that gold was simply performing another of its traditional roles- that of the Safe Haven in times of uncertainty- since raising rates into a poor economy is quite possibly a recipe for a stock market crash (given that the market is in a highly overvalued position historically). In this context, gold rising (insurance) when the Fed (stupidly) raised rates actually makes perfect sense.

Tinfoil Hat version: Has the Fed decided to become as part of “le Resistance” like so much of the Washington establishment has, and is this the sign? Before you dismiss me as a nutter, answer this simple question: After 8 years of keeping what was initially billed as “extraordinary measures that are historically unprecedented and temporary” in place for nearly a decade now, why has the supposedly ‘data-dependent’ Federal Reserve suddenly just hiked rates AGAIN at a time when economic data just missed so badly? Again? And yes, the previous sentence showed how what the Fed once described as temporary is now permanent, what was once extraordinary is now standard, and how "data dependent" means ignoring the data no matter how bad it is. This is sheer Schizophrenia. Or, you know, Central Banking.

The most recent miss inspiring our data-driven Fedsters to hike more was so big it was the worst miss in six years! In fact, the last time economic data disappointed by this great a margin the situation was considered dire to such a degree that Bernanke unleashed “operation twist”… back in August of 2011. So how is this rate hike in any way logical for a “data-dependent” Fed, absent the deliberate intent to muck things up?

If the Fed were truly making policy as economic data dictates, they wouldn’t be doing this. So why keep hiking rates into a dumpster-fire of an economy when they know could easily lead to a major stock market correction, crash, and/or recession at some point (maybe soon)? Occam’s razor suggests: because they’ve decided that’s what they want! If you do A, knowing it will probably cause B, that strongly suggests you desire B as an outcome. Simple. Call me crazy all you want, but that explanation seems quite consistent with the tone and behavior I’ve seen coming from the rest of the DC/government establishment for the last half year, so I don’t see why the Fed would be any different. When the feeding trough is threatened, some folks ‘resist’, some folks leak, some folks hike. Potato, po-tah-to.

And if you think the market won’t be allowed to drop because it’s never allowed to drop, ask yourself WHO has not been allowing it to drop for the last 8 years? The PPT/Fed. And what are these rate hikes suggesting they might want now? Ummm hmmm.

Regardless, don’t totally sleep on the long-shot catalyst folks; the S&P finally heading south as a possible catalyst for gold…

Trendline test, rise above, and rejection:

One of the lessons I’ve learned the hard way in the metals is that trend lines are not what classical trading theory says they are. In classical trading theory, a trend line should act as a psychological level of support or resistance, and when (for example) price rises then bumps up against it then breaks through, it is supposed to trigger a new wave of buying as other market participants (seeing the strength of price in breaking through the barrier) join in the buying, driving price higher (or of course, in some cases rejecting price and sending it back down).

But all that supposes free and fairly traded markets among participants of equal standing before the law. And these are the metals. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! So here, trend lines are places where, when resistance is breached, once price breaks through and attracts new buyers, THEN the market “makers” crush price with an avalanche of paper to harvest all that new money that just came in. Ring the register, bank the bonus.

So the way trend lines work in the metals is that price bumps against resistance or trend lines, and if it goes through bringing in new longs, THEN it gets smashed back down below, and only when everyone who just got run has either been cleared out or turns bearish will price finally be allowed the possibility to rise back up through that line at some point.

In other words, in the metals, trend lines are only valid indicators after the gang-rape has occurred there. We’ve now had that in gold (twice, actually), so in my book, we are finally clear for a rise up through 1300. Strange? Yeah, but that’s how it works around here.

The Bottom Line: Risk vs. Reward

In the end, all of the above is just food for thought, or fun speculation. As the wizened sage of the trading pits atlee once said, “That’s a nice story. Ms. Market doesn’t care about your story, she will go where she wants.”

This is a basic range-trade with well-defined risk vs. reward. You take the known trading range, buy-in near the recent low of that trading range, and use that as your stop- it’s a simple play, regardless of whether any of the above winds up being a catalyst or not. Right now, GDX is just above the recent lows of May, so we have a very clear and recently defined low. We need to make a higher low above this level if we are going to continue moving up, so there is your well-defined stop-loss level. GDX is around 22, and 20.75 would be my stop-loss for this trade… we go below that, the trade is busted, so get out (FYI, I find that gold and silver are gamed so much day to day that setting stops, entries and exits via GDX is much more reliable and predictable, even if the vehicles I am trading are gold and silver). A tight, well-defined 5-6% stop-loss if you’re wrong is acceptably low risk IMO.

But the reward… if this takes off like I think it could, we would at least revisit the highs of GDX 31.5 of last summer. The safe play would be to take 50% profits near that point, then wait for market action to decide further, but I suspect it’s possible that the momentum generated by a rise from 22 to 31 would mean that bull might very well keep running until we hit the 36, and possibly on the outside the 40-42 range. But let’s stay conservative (recent range-bound) in our calculations and stick with the 31.5 figure- that would be an unleveraged gain of 43%. Put another way, that’s a risk/return ratio of 7.7 to 1 on this trade. (Best Borat voice) Verra Niiiiiiiice!!!! And if it keeps rolling to 36 or even 40? Ka-ching!

. . .

So you can have your summer doldrums, your new lows, and your gold seasonals. This parrot, with disciplined stops, is going long.


About the Author


Jun 19, 2017 - 6:38pm

Re "TFCryptoReport"

Good idea.

Many knowledgeable postings previously laid down here re cryptos.
I have C&Pd quite a few.
But now I'm done with Cryto Crap.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz today tells King World News that governments will easily smash cryptocurrencies any time they want to and gold and silver eventually will escape price suppression by governments and central banks and begin to reflect the vast inflation of the money supply. As for when, von Greyerz doesn't say. GATA doesn't know when either, only that the World Gold Council and the gold and silver mining industry will do nothing to hasten the day.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


Bloomberg News
Monday, June 19, 2017

For digital-marketing agency, taking bitcoin for payment was easy enough, all co-founder Roger Wu had to do was obtain a digital wallet. To promote the move in 2014, he even penned a blog post for Forbes explaining the decision.

The number of transactions the New York-based firm has made since? Zero.

The biggest thing is are people willing to pay in bitcoin? Wu said. The reality is that most of our customers are other businesses and other businesses dont use bitcoin."

Even as the euphoria over bitcoin reached a fever pitch last week as the price surged to almost $3,000, slow transaction times and inertia are helping to prevent it from achieving widespread usage. Adoption has slowed, according to Morgan Stanley, after a slew of companies from Microsoft Corp. to Expedia Inc. initially trumpeted its use, and hurdles remain when it comes to longer-term viability. ...

... For the remainder of the report:

Jun 19, 2017 - 7:00pm

I for one think crypto's are

I for one think crypto's are meaningful and play a part in bringing the system to it's knees. However; they have zero importance to me. I will never (through my computer) buy a so called "asset" to put in my electronic wallet. Never, never, ever. Please move this to a forum or open another website.

Will I miss out? Probably...but I don't care...I came here for metal analysis.

Jun 19, 2017 - 8:07pm

Food For Thought

Zerohedge was reporting that China might launch their crude contract in July. Maybe this is what AM was pointing to? There was a great piece that Grant Williams did called "Get It, Got It? Good" that pointed to this one specific event. Here is the link and worth the watch.

2016 Mines & Money Presentation: Get It. Got It? Good.

Long story short it moves oil producing countries away from the Petro-dollar in that if the contract is fully convertible into Yuan, and thus gold and silver on the SGE, presto. No need to constantly be bidding up dollars. Worth the watch.

So maybe its really loco Shanghi !

tfever imodelalot2
Jun 19, 2017 - 8:45pm

Good bye dollar Hello yuan

if petro yuan is fully priced in. Good bye dollar . Jeesh, July prediction seem to be more likely as it go on.

Jun 19, 2017 - 9:13pm

Evans seems to worry about lack of inflation...

“I think if we were to race to a higher funds rate too quickly without seeing improvements in inflation, that could be quite a concern. And it’s that part that I think where we need to stop and kind of go, you know -- I just think the message out of the conservative central banking story was, we need to get inflation to 2 percent”

He may be right....Just ask the Japanese or Amazon or German super discounts ALDI and LIDL, coming soon to U.S. soil..or advancement of technology ...robots working for us...

Fido vs Spot — Animal vs Robot
Jun 19, 2017 - 9:25pm

Shrink the debt bubbble....

Shrink the debt bubbble.... inverted yield curve

America's lock on the reserve currency has been referred to by the French as, "exorbitant privilege". But, it has also become a trap. The current-account deficit must always grow. Other States must do vendor-financing and hold lots of Treasury bonds. The FED printed up about $27 trillion in the 2008 collapse. A big part of that was needed by European banks to service dollar-denominated debt. Every time that dollar liquidity threatens to shrink, dollar-debt holders get a coronary arrest. The FED may claim that they have stopped QE but, the ESF and PPT are still pumping liquidity into every index and orifice.

The FED also depends on other CBs to pump in liquidity. China has been spectacularly successful.
6/18 US casting nervous eye at China’s ‘phenomenal’ debt levels – SCMP The credit bubble must grow but, there are threats of deflation everywhere. After the collapse of Spanish banks and the extreme haircut to the stockholders and bondholders, EVERYBODY in Europe is nervous about bank debt.
6/18 Fear of contagion feeds the Italian banking crisis – Wolf Street Yep, the Italians are in worse shape than the Spanish. It was called a bail-in but, they don't mention the $5 billion in tax credits that the buyer got.
Fear of Contagion Feeds the Italian Banking Crisis | Wolf Street

Employment never recovered from the 2008 crash,
" out-of-pocket costs to purchase a new vehicle have steadliy risen from just over $19,000 in 1997 to over $33,000 today:" The FED graphs show no rise in price at all.
"As of today, credit impulse has gone negative across the world for the first time since the start of the Great Recession.

In Part 2: Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse, we lay out the evidence for why there’s a credit impulse-driven recession on the way. It will come whether or not the underlying economy is recovering or not.

Why? Because the amount of debt creation was absolutely massive across the globe, particularly in China. The excessive debt service will simply overwhelm the economy -- it won't even be a close fight."

"The yield curve as seen in the picture above continues to flatten out, and this trend will continue until the curve inverts.
The last time the yield curve inverted, the 2008 economic meltdown occurred, and the time before that we suffered bubble meltdown.

The fact is we are existing in a multiple bubble economy at this time, worse, and unlike anything which has ever been seen before.
The reason why these bubbles exist is simple: the Federal Reserve has not allowed the market to do its one and only job, and that is to determine fair value." Fair value is not compatible with crony capitalism and a bloated finance sector.
"What this means is when the yield curve inverts this time, we will experience a meltdown magnitudes greater then the 2008 crash.

The irony is just like last time, the general public has no idea of what is coming and they are just as complacent as well.

In summary.
The federal reserves attempt at raising interest rates is having a paradoxical effect on the market as the yield curve continues to flatten.
I fully expect the yield curve to invert in the not so distant future. What this means is we can expect a market meltdown orders of magnitude worse than the last two times we had a yield curve inversion."

"The defense industry gets rich, instead of that money being spent on whatever the robbed taxpayers were going to spend it on. Any number of industries suffer because our money is stolen and thrown into the trash-pit-of-destruction that is the defense industry.

At least when welfare recipients take our money they only kill themselves if they spend it on cigarettes, alcohol, and crack. The welfare *****s in the military industrial complex spend it on killing others and inflaming international tensions.
What do they care? More war only makes them richer."
Shovel Ready: How The Fed Makes Us Dig Our Own Graves | The Daily Bell

Dr. P. Metals
Jun 19, 2017 - 9:34pm


Lol. Thanks for getting me distracted from things for a few mins.

Jun 19, 2017 - 9:35pm

Thank you Pining.

Manic!! Getting caught up, a few comments, then off to the rock pile.

@everyone: Regarding the crypto specific posts. Any subject can be tiresome. Any post can go off topic. This is the world we live in. The solution is simple. In the same way that one might post that there is a "Spoiler Alert" in a forum about a TV episode that folks may or may not have seen, how about a "crypto alert?"
The ignore button is too strong in some cases. Imagine my world, I have no ability to talk about football. I want a "Sports BS" alert in threads like you can not imagine. Unless you don't like football.

For the computer savy here is an article on how to build your own "Trezor" for alt coins using an old IBM Thinkpad.
Very interesting...

Oh you just had to twist the knife. Ya know that Stinkpad had a nub and a track pad. I even had extra caps for the nub. Yeah I'm that good.
Note: On the convo's. I specifically do not bring it up. Observer effect et al. To be fair no one said anything on Wed.
DC/Marvel: Here is my theory. Stan was walking around the corner with some Spiderman pages. Jack had some Hulk pages. The bumped in to each other. Stan yells, "Hey you got some Hulk in my Spiderman." The rest was history and DC's Market share. :) Talk about not selling, I have all my IM's. Shellhead was like a 4th stringer, now he gets the lead.
Got the PM. thanks.

@AE: Travolta? You have seen Battlefield Earth, riiiiight?

@Ferd: You have NO (look at my posts, you will see I rarely use all caps,) idea how dangerous that is. Expand it out a little bit, and you can see where I am going. My own conservative estimates of Ag, I put @ 2MM. I don't fuck with Au, you guess.


#keepstacking #networking

Jun 19, 2017 - 9:37pm

Elijah Johnson / Brother John F.

  • Biggest moves in cryptocurrencies are yet to come;
  • Bull market in cryptocurrencies;
  • India and China;
  • Likes de-centralized cryptocurrencies;
  • Governmental (elite) involvement;
  • Intrinsic value of Bitcoin;
  • Bitcoin avoids capital controls;
  • Is the U.S. Congress really that stupid?;
  • One year from Now 1 Trillion TAV possible
  • You can't stop an idea whose time has come
10 Fold Increase in Cryptocurrencies by Year-End | BrotherJohnF

John from silver for the people blog

If you like this post, you can upvote, follow, share, and re-steem this post. Thank you!

Texas Sandman
Jun 19, 2017 - 10:14pm

tepid silver buy

I'm not crazy about this because it's only slightly oversold and we have that shelf of resistance just overhead, but this meets minimal criteria I described for a bullish trade in silver. We have a bullish engulfing pattern at round number support (16.50) with oscillator oversold. And the final bar did break above the daily pivot (yellow line) and close there. Let's see how far it can go. No pattern in gold here.

Jun 19, 2017 - 10:24pm

Topics up for discussion

The issues as I see them that have divided Turdville lately (crypto-currency) really boil down to a few simply things:

1. Use the ignore button if you don't like what someone is saying or how they are saying it.

2. Try to use Bambiology..."if you can't say something nice don't say anything at all"

3. Remember the pain others are going through with their PM portfolio. We are all proud individuals and we know we have tried to get out of the way of this debt fiat Ponzi scheme only to find relentless manipulation. Show more compassion and less triumphalism in your new found crypto success.

United we stand...divided we fall!

Texas Sandman
Jun 19, 2017 - 10:29pm

On the other hand, there's this...

This is pretty obvious... It's a big juicy bullish divergence at the most recent lows... Don't have to squint to see it. Starting to like this one a little more...

Jun 19, 2017 - 11:04pm

Divided and Conquered?!?!

Coming up to 4 years as a subscriber here at TF Metals now. The continual beatings from the PTB somehow, served to unite our little clique of Turdites. I loved the off topic stuff, as much as on topic and I happily plead guilty to posting lots of off topic BS. It was always like we were in this thing together, though.

Having stacks of metal hidden under Boab Trees, in ABX vaults and using Goldmoney as a type of cash account, I've probably got enough PMs to last me and my family through. That's my base position and I'd love to add some gold kilo bars to it one day, if a little luck goes my way. However, the stack is essentially in "set and forget" mode. My real excitement is about owning 1.5% of a small mining producer/explorer.

I post a lot of stuff about the company's great current position as well as, refurbishing and quickly bringing into production, huge old high grade mines, as well as finding high grade, Hishikari like, low sulphidation epithermal Quartz veins in Greenfield areas. The geology, engineering and business operations are all intriguing and exciting in themselves. I don't post it here though. I post it all in the dedicated forum for this particular company. Posting this here at TVille, IMO, would be inappropriate and would possibly be perceived as a "Pump and Dump". Therefore, even though I would love to post stuff here, about my little company, I exercise restraint and do not.

This site has essentially gone from being highly unified to being squarely disunited by the onset of Crypto Mania. Turdville hasn't been divided by TPTB (at least I suspect not). We've managed this by ourselves. By posters not exercising restraint and assessing appropriateness and etiquette for their comments, polarisation of our community has occurred. For me - this is a sad outcome. I originally thought that we would all be celebrating together, because we'd have virtually nobody else to celebrate with, at TEOTGKE.

Anyway - I don't have much faith in any group or quasi institution that poses a threat to the system. Invariably these groups, even I dare say our little Turdville, are eventually subverted and destroyed from within. As I see it - people only understand divide and conquer from a third party perspective. Rarely do people recognize it when it's happening to themselves.

I'll give it some more time, however, I believe the damage has already been done here. I'm in two minds about subscription renewal now, because I think that I see the writing is clearly on the wall. I'm going to probably have to go this thing alone. Several months ago, the thought of not renewing would have been unthinkable. I'll try the ignore button - like I said before. I don't think it's going to be enough to get the site's, relative harmony back though. I'm very pessimistic about my future here. I'm not saying this as a threat. It's just my honest assessment and opinion of the situation at hand. Divide and Conquer doesn't fail too often.

Jun 19, 2017 - 11:15pm

An Internet of not just information, but of Value....

How the blockchain is changing money and business.

How the blockchain is changing money and business | Don Tapscott

jchantel Dingo
Jun 19, 2017 - 11:31pm


You might be right...perhaps the proverbial writing is on the wall already...but I'm not so sure I'll bail anytime soon. It's true something has been lost in the us vs them theme now that some of Turdville has wandered onto another path to prosperity. We are all so tired of the beatings that it is hard to get excited about metals until we see some progress. This has to be what capitulation feels like in a PM perma-bull Strong Hold!

Jun 19, 2017 - 11:41pm

If cryptos were not making any money and AU an AG were..

...then there would be no crypto posts. Isn't that obvious. There is an ADDITIONAL way to make fiat right now to acquire physical metals.......and all you have to do is to desire to do it............

What would Vince Lombardi say......??????

"The difference between a successful person and others is not a lack of strength, not a lack of knowledge, but rather a lack of will."

Human Mushroom
Jun 20, 2017 - 12:16am

Mr Fix is Still Right

I saw a Mr Fix post on Main Street just the other day. Hadn't seen one in many moons. Thought maybe he wasn't subscribed anymore. Guess he is still.

It's also been many moons since Mr Fix simply predicted that gold and silver won't be allowed to rise until a total collapse of the current system. So far he's still correct on that point.

Lately, even Turd has pretty much stated as much with the probable bank created algo links with the USD/JPY pair. Which pretty much means there isn't all that much to talk about in the gold and silver markets. There simply aren't any markets. The bottom line result is all we can actually talk about is what we're stacking in preparation for that great FCD (Fiat Collapse Day), or how upset we are about the manipulation.

I'm sorry, but as far as I'm concerned, I tired of talking about this same-o same-o stuff after 6 years. We can't do anything about it.

Then low-n-behold, another kind of market springs forth that puts the screws to the very same cabal that has locked down our primary site topic. Most of us joined TFMR to discuss gold and silver because we are all gold and silver people. Well hells bells folks, we now know a shitload about the lockdown. Now what?

Is that all we really want to continue to talk about is the lockdown until the collapse? What the heck is wrong with talking about the new kid that IS causing headaches for the cabal since it's very obvious gold and silver isn't.

I'm an ex-electrical engineer and a causal computer programmer. Even with that knowledge under my belt, I still poo-pooed Bitcoin simply because I was a gold and silver guy. I'm so pissed at myself for staying ignorant about Bitcoin because of stupid pride, thinking that the only way to protect myself AND fight the system was with gold and silver.

You would have thought that a techie geek like me would have jumped into Bitcoin years ago. Nope, I was a prideful, ignorant dope. Thankfully I did, finally, 1½ years ago. The tiring non-action of gold and silver allowed my ego to actually study the new kid. Damn it, damn it damn it!!

It's so sad to look back at my courage to fight the government and the IRS over income taxes in the 80's & 90's, yet didn't have the courage to put a few bucks into Bitcoin when it was so cheap. Oh well, water under the bridge.

Alright then, so much for a little of my history of ignorance. Let's talk gold and silver. Yup, it's manipulated alright. I'll bet when the system finally collapses, my stack will me worth a whole bunch.

In the meantime, I decided to put some bamboo under the banksters' fingernails by buying some Bitcoin and Ethereum. It sure feels nice for a change to have a positive outlook while gold and silver remains very stable year after year. However, I'll keep this part short since no one wants to know anything about the new kid that is actually helping the cause.

Not that it will help with the gold and silver discussion much, but even as the prices have pretty much stayed steady for years now, I have done quite well since I bought most of my stack many moons ago when silver was in the $4.50 - $5.00 range. Gold was below $800.

I guess you could say I saw shit happening a long time ago and started buying. AND, I guess if you wanted to stretch my foresight just a bit more, ignoring my earlier ignorance, you might come to the conclusion that getting Bitcoin was a good idea as well, long before the masses come to the same conclusion.

Jun 20, 2017 - 12:29am

Dingo - despite moments of despair

I haven't given up on TFMR nor do I intend to in the foreseeable future.

In this thread, Pining has demonstrated that we can still find our way in the world of PMs. It's difficult (was it every easy) and our focus has been challenged but it remains in tact.

I think we'll discover within the next few weeks that there is a solution to the crypto wave at TFMR. I would that it could be so easily resolved in the world of finance beyond our little place in the sun.

I for one, never use the Ignore button. Over the years, I've been both surprised and delighted to discover that I can find something in common with the most unlikely of Turdites. Indeed, I feel kinship, even friendship with some individuals who vigorously support views that I strongly oppose. They drive me crazy but I'm dazzled by their other redeeming qualities.

I don't oppose anyone investing in assets other than PMs and mentioning it here. I just don't like the adolescent discourtesy and bombardment associated with the 'crypto enlightenment' provided by some posters. Superior, cliquey, proselytizing and self-congratulating; and it just drones on and on. I have decided to continue reading their posts and clicking on a few of their links (just to remain informed), but I will no longer respond or provide rebuttal to any of their posts. They will of course, continue to chat among themselves but if we all take this approach, TF will soon corral them into a venue that is more appropriate for their particular passion. If not, I was here before most of them and I'll be here after most of them. C'est la vie.

Jun 20, 2017 - 1:04am

Good Point Human Mushroom

I can't remember if it was here or somewhere else that I read the comment with the jist:

Due to the lockdown of algos, if all humans on earth drop dead tomorrow, the stock market will continue to rise.

Time to try something else.

Jun 20, 2017 - 1:19am

dow 44000

I crossed paths a couple weeks back with one of my clients who is a big player in the Canadian investment industry. Three years ago I asked him where the DOW was going. He said 20,000 and I just laughed thinking inside it would never happen and imagining all along that a crash was imminent. He asked me if i was still laughing at him. I asked him again where the DOW was going next and when should I worry about a crash. He said 44,000. "Don't even get excited until it hits that benchmark and when it does, then you can start thinking about a crash." His theory was based on the fact that there is so much cash out there floating around with nowhere to go. Take it for what you will but he is a smart man.

I'm still buying g+s and ignoring the noise. I'll let the sharks play their games and stick with the brains in this collective.

Jun 20, 2017 - 1:47am

GDXJ Rebalance

The GDXJ rebalance is complete. The ETF now has 73 stocks instead of 49. Most of the stocks added were large caps. Before there were only 4 stocks with market caps over $1.5 billion. Now there are 23, with 64% of the weighting for stocks with market caps over $1.5 billion.

With only 36% of the weighting for stocks with market caps under $1.5 billion, I would no longer call it a mid-tier ETF. One positive outcome is that most of the silver producers were added, with Pan American Silver given the highest weighting. I think this will have a positive impact on the silver producer's share performance. They will get a bump as GDXJ grows in size.

Jun 20, 2017 - 1:52am

New Interview

If you like podcasts, checkout my most recent interview. It's 40 minutes long.

Don Durrett: Silver $75 This Decade!
Jun 20, 2017 - 7:03am

FOIA Request On Susan Rice’s Unmaskings Rejected

Because “Records Were Moved To Obama Library”

by Tyler Durden

Jun 19, 2017 11:30 PM

Back in April, Judicial Watch filed a FOIA request for documents related to the unmasking of “the identities of any U.S. citizens associated with the Trump presidential campaign or transition team” by Obama’s National Security Advisor Susan Rice. Unfortunately, and quite conveniently for members of the Obama administration, Judicial Watch has been informed by the National Security Council that records related to their request can not be shared because they ” have been transferred to the Barack Obama Presidential Library” and will “remain closed to the public for five years.”

Here is the full letter received from the National Secruity Council:

Jun 20, 2017 - 10:03am

Cryptos or Miners

I'm a retired geologist/field geophysicist...Maybe I should have jumped, tiptoed in...with cryptos two years ago but I didn't...I stayed with putting xtra dinero in physical Au/Ag always hoping for that upward break in manipulation...I now agree with Mr. Fix with respect to the PMs...So, I have now begun to invest in what looks to be the next big thing and that is EVs and battery technology...Junior cobalt and lithium miners is where I have begun to invest and I truly expect 4 baggers by end of 2019 when most will be in production...Cobalt miners especially...Also, I may put my toes into a couple of zinc miners as that metal has now begun to be in deficit...

I'm sure I won't be doubling my investment every month (or less) like the cryptos but at least I can read the miners' investor presentations and fact sheets and look at drill hole results and know what I'm investing in...

I gotta go with what I feel most comfortable in and that is miners..

Jun 20, 2017 - 10:42am
tfever AIJ
Jun 20, 2017 - 10:43am

crypto apps

Some crypto are coins, but some are closer to " apps." Ppl get caught with terms "COINS" but some are closer to "APPS." Easier example, if u can "crowd source application"?

Like use example how much is Microsoft Office worth? $100 or billions?

What if you can crowd fund the next apps? Does that help?


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Key Economic Events Week of 5/20

5/20 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
5/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
5/22 2:00 ET FOMC minutes
5/23 9:45 ET Markit PMIs
5/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

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