Good Wednesday

As we stand at the threshold of what may be an extremely volatile, 3-day holiday weekend, the "markets" thus far today have been mostly unchanged and listless. Enjoy the relative quiet while you can as the volatility will very likely ramp up as we head toward Thursday's close.

So, what should we talk about today? Maybe...

Meh. Maybe we'll save all those things for another day. Instead, let's start the day with another visit to the ruins of GAN2017. Just think of the cozy, 8-figure salary and bonus I should have earned this year working from some massive Bank. I mean, seriously! Our forecast of anti-GAN2017 sure is beating the living daylights out of the forecasts of all the lapdogs and message-pumpers that formulate sell-side "analysis". This little thing I found at ZH follows the theme. Recall that is was just three months ago that EVERYONE was expecting "the bond bubble" to finally burst in 2017. Uh-huh...not so much: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-12/socgen-final-purge-all-bearish-bond-sentiment-may-cleansethe-market

And where are rates this morning? Still perilously perched at critical support near 2.30% in the 10-year and 2.90% for the Long Bond.

Anyway, getting back to the rather mundane start to your Wednesday. This seems almost akin to everyone taking a breath before things get crazy tomorrow. We should expect a slow ramp-up of activity, volume and volatility as we go through the day and then Thursday should be pretty exciting/interesting as the world attempts to position itself ahead of a three-day, market holiday weekend where just about anything could happen. Maybe all will be well and nothing will come of the Nork's Sunday observance of PapaKim's birthday. Maybe everything will calm down and next week will be back to business as usual. Maybe not. And it's into that uncertainty that positions will be squared ahead of tomorrow's close.

And one more thing...and maybe it would be better to discuss this in today's podcast...I found this interesting article at ZH earlier. It notes the recent disconnect of the S&P from the VIX. That's curious because we all know about the daily HFT influence of the VIX and the USDJPY on "the stock market". See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-12/what-happens-next

Well, what's doubly curious is that this seeming VIX disconnect comes at a time where we've already observed a clear, long-term USDJPY disconnect. Recall that in February of last year, the "stock market" was ready to move sharply lower with the tumbling USDJPY when suddenly it diverged. And this divergence began the same day that Mother held secret, unscheduled phone conversations with Count Draghi of the ECB and Carney of the BoE. As a reminder, note how things have changed in the 14 months since:

For today in CDG, we look to be safe in our efforts to post two, consecutive closes north of both the 200-day MA and the downtrend line from last July's price peak. However, as you no doubt know by now, it ain't over till it's over so anything can happen. However, given the geopolitical uncertainty, it's hard to imagine a scenario where we get smashed back down over the next six hours. Instead, CDG looks to make even higher highs above $1280 with the next target being the level we've told you for weeks was attainable once the 200-day was broken...$1300.

And for CDS, the simple goal remains a move to new 2017 highs. This requires a Herculean effort due to the incredibly extended CoT and open interest structure, which remains at or near ALLTIME highs.

OK, before we close, two items I just saw on Twitter. One, it is being reported that Putin has, in fact, met with Tillerson today. Look for some headlines over the next few hours. And two, it looks like even more pressure is building in the preparation for possible strikes on Lil Kim: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/12/japanese-warships-join-us-fleet-north-korea

More later,

TF

80 Comments

silver66's picture

First

Now that I claimed it , I don't have anything witty to say.

I have been doing more lurking than posting as of late due to time constraints.

Life is good !

Silver66

surfeitndearth's picture

Hmm... Blockchain Gold Trading

UK Royal Mint Begins Live Testing of Blockchain Gold Trading Platform

http://coinjournal.net/uk-royal-mint-begins-live-testing-blockchain-gold-trading-platform/

"The UK’s Royal Mint and CME Group have begun live testing the Royal Mint Gold (RMG), a blockchain-backed digital gold product aimed at providing a new alternative way to trade physical gold that is cost-effective, convenient and assured.

The CME electronic platform for RMG, powered by AlphaPoint, is being tested with institutional traders. It represents the first institutional trading platform for digital gold."

[...]

@VikingKing6's picture

Bronze

TF - your thoughts on the CME digital gold blockchain??

A shift finally to fully reserved gold trading?  Wouldn't that be incredible?!

Setting the stage for the re-set?

Marchas45's picture

4th?

Let's See, Keep Stacking

RickshawETF's picture

Fifth

Fifth.  Gold & silver in the green.

Love that dance, Charlie!

Stack on!

Chiron's picture

short interest in GDXJ

Any ideas about how to find how much the short position is on the miners?  

I think there is selling into strength of the shares outright (mess with supply/demand) or short selling to cap the price.  Either that or there is just no interest in jumping into the miners when the PMs move (which I find hard to believe).  I don't buy the argument that "its a stock and will fall with the rest of the stocks on a market correction", because that level of participation has been long run out of the sector.

It looks like GDXJ has broken above the trend line but just can't get any follow through.  Very surprising and not acting like it usually does.

Turd Ferguson's picture

maybe

MODERATOR

But anything that has to do with The Royal Mint and the CME must be viewed as dubious, at best.

Response to: Bronze
AgAuMan's picture

8... or 7... if turd doesn't count

8-1 = 7

billhilly's picture

chiron...

GDXJ has been rejected twice now (in 2 days) at its 50 dma, 37.75 ish...

(please correct me if I have the data wrong)

TF Metals fan's picture

Copper

Copper is sliding further. Now clearly under the levels at the start of the year. A forewarning for silver? 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Not time for fucking around

MODERATOR

I'd say this is a pretty clear and blunt warning from the Chicoms to the Norks. 

It's safe to say that Trump has made it abundantly clear to Xi that any missile or nuclear test this weekend will be the final straw.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-12/china-threatens-north-korea-never-seen-measures-if-they-dont-de-escalate

Blaggers's picture

Trendlines

USDJPY seems to be in a descending channel where the lower support line coincides with the 200 day MA. Dropping to 108.66 would certainly give the PM's a nice boost.

On the silver chart (above) redrawing the trend-line to coincide with the February high would have the recent moves indicating a test and rebound of that line (now support) (ever the optimist I am).

Would it be possible to include some 10 year charts of the PM's as we seem to be at some very key trend-lines on both silver and gold right now.

Thanks for all your great work TF.

Turd Ferguson's picture

We usually only discuss the

MODERATOR

We usually only discuss the weekly and monthly charts on Friday and at month end. Why? Because the intra-month movements don't mean much if they don't hold.

For example, I've seen some notices lately about the longterm trend from 2011. We discuss this nearly every Friday as we've been monitoring that chart since last June. In 2016, price often broke above the trendline but never closed above the trendline and thus the trend continued. The very same situation applies now.

So, don't get excited yet about the monthly chart. Check back in three weeks and let's see where we are then.

Response to: Trendlines
Turd Ferguson's picture

To the point of this post

MODERATOR

Given all that's going on in the world, what a remarkably flat chart for USDJPY over the past 24+ hours...

Turd Ferguson's picture

All the while and in an

MODERATOR

All the while and in an absolutely stunning development, Comex Digital Silver is slowly pushed right back down to $18.25

Blaggers's picture

We usually only discuss the

Good point.

Intrigued to see where it ends up this month then.

What are your thoughts on redrawing that silver trend-line?

Danforth Coxwell's picture

Lil' Kim

Just some friendly advice. Don't worry about your generals, worry about your colonels!

Turd Ferguson's picture

I don't like it

MODERATOR

For months, we've maintained that the line should be drawn from the August 2 highs and not the July 3 highs. 

With the current rally, the line from August 2 has clearly been broken. However, since nearly everyone else wants to use the July 3 highs, we've had to switch to using that high as a starting point in drawing the downtrend line. You can see it on the chart embedded in the text of this post.

indiana rod's picture

1950 Redux

It appears that the 150,000 Chinese troops on China's border may cross the Yalu River not to defeat American troops but the army of North Korea.

What? you mean John Kerry and Obama weren't able to sweet talk North Korea into submission?

Who would have thought it. They were always able to solve all the world's problems by talking about it.

Just like when Obama was in the Senate. A sticky vote came up, he voted present.

Ned Braden's picture

Burack - Fitts interview yesterday

Blaggers's picture

I don't like it

Fair enough.

I was just thinking a trend-line that joins the July 3 high, August 2 (main body of the candles) and the end of February high. This would have silver above the line now and show that it already has tested it as support last week.

In a similar way, First Majestic has clearly broken and then retested it's trend-line.

I know there are more pressing issues to be concerned about but this provides a nice bit of escape.

Cheers.

Angry Chef's picture

Dismantling the Deep State

This is interesting.

http://www.roguemoney.net/2017/04/12/dismantling-the-deep-state/

(Gesturing the next middle level with his hand) … So the Rothschilds, the Banks, then all of the Banks and their Corporations have figured out how to corrupt with bribery, or blackmail, politicians in the United States. For example, Senator McCain and Senator Graham are known to be blackmailed by the CIA…. Mark Rubio and Chuck Schumer are also being blackmailed.

What most people don’t realize is that the National Security Agency has spent the last 20 years spying on our own politicians and all of your (Norway’s) politicians. I guarantee you that 20% of your politicians are being blackmailed in some way by the Deep State which includes the Vatican. The Vatican is THE biggest bank. But it also includes Saudi Arabia and Zionists in Israel.

19.20

I want to emphasize that “Israel” and “Jews” are not the threat. The threat is Zionists who are abusing their control of Israel and the blackmail and bribery that Israel is capable of.

canary's picture

OI (final)

Gold Future +22,742

Silver Future +496   (total 220,172).

canary's picture

Prediction

Thursday, April 13

Spot Gold Intra-Day Trend: Higher. VantagePoint’s short-term indicators are now bullish.

Spot Silver Intra-Day Trend: Higher. VantagePoint’s short-term indicators are now bullish.

Chiron's picture

GDXJ

Daily chart with 1 year duration, 100 day SMA is 36.05 today.  I like the longer charts because it blocks some of the "noise".  The SMA on this chart was broken after the fed rate hike spike and then price was then pushed below that line briefly to "correct" the move, then crossed back to the upside and rode it for a while, and is now pulling away to the upside, but not with any fire.  

I just think that the miners are seriously being buggered with, but I am trying to find "evidence".  It just seems like a bankers big fat ass is just sitting on it, and not allowing it to get up.  Ever try to start a fire with damp tender?  Same thing.  You have all the oxygen you need to burn a good hot flame, but the flame doesn't go anywhere.  In this case, somebody is just pissing on the firewood.  Frustrating. 

Turd Ferguson's picture

Apparently the fact that

MODERATOR

Apparently the fact that Putin and Tillerson met for over two hours is a signal that everything is once again safe in the world and therefore the all-important USDJPY should be bought.

Meh, whatever. Let's see what happens overnight and tomorrow.

fluxplus's picture

all good with Russia

Looks like all good with Russia. Will we see smash for gold and silver? Yen and bonds reverse now.

Turd Ferguson's picture

uh-oh

MODERATOR
Blaggers's picture

USDJPY

Short stops being run but the PMs' don't look convinced by the USDJPY surge right now.

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