Hoping To Be Wrong

Who knows? Maybe tomorrow will come and go and Comex Digital Silver will simply continue higher toward new 2017 highs. Or maybe The Cartel Banks are simply playing their same old, tired game where they pull the rug out from under everyone after patiently flooding the "market" with new open interest, waiting for buying pressure to exhaust itself.

I mean, it's not as if we haven't seen this movie a million times. The Banks cap and cap while they wait for a news event that they can use to smash CDS in a waterfall of sell orders. Does it look to you like the same old scenario is playing out today? See below:

Yes, that's right...The Banks have now added over 24,000 contracts of open interest to "silver" in just the past seven trading sessions. That's an increase of 12.1% representing 120,000,000 ounces of virtual/synthetic/digital silver. How and why do they do this? Be sure to read this if you haven't already: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8252/econ-101-silver-market-manipulation

And now total Comex silver OI is very near ALLTIME record highs at 222,102 contracts. That's over 1,100,000,000 ounces of fantasy silver and about 125% of total global mine supply. But don't bother telling the worthless CFTC about this crime in progress. They're all too busy flipping cards into a hat and watching internet porn.

Again, maybe someway/somehow the BLSBS tomorrow will be viewed as "disappointing". This might cause the USDJPY to fall which, in turn, might cause CDG to rally. And if CDG rallies, maybe CDS will at least hang firm near the cap. However, does this look like a chart that's been painted for a fall or a rally?

So, I suppose we should check the chart of CDS in the hope of discovering a spot where we might find support and right the ship. IF a steep selloff comes tomorrow or next week, where might that area be? See below:

While we'd like to see support at the 200-day ($18.08), major raids of late have been designed to smash these levels. Therefore, IF a raid comes, there's no way it's stopping at the 200-day. Besides, taking it out will engender the type of Spec liquidation that The Banks need to really get the ball rolling.

The 50-day ($17.72) might be a nice target and it would be GREAT if a selloff stopped there and then turned. This would signal that the 2017 rally is still underway and that the trend was still up. Which, right there, is a reason why JPM will be gunning to break that level, too.

Nope, the most likely target for some support is the 100-day ($17.18). Not only is that a logical stopping point, the trendline connecting the Dec16 and Mar17 lows can be found there, too.

Maybe by next week the chart ends up looking like this? I HOPE NOT but experience makes me realistic and, therefore, cautious.

So, anyway, sorry to darken your Thursday in this way but it's my job to tell you what I think...even though sometimes it may not be what you want to hear. And now I just saw this...Do you think this could play heck with the metals on Monday? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-06/janet-yellen-hold-previously-unannounced-speech-monday-take-twitter-questions

So hang in there and hope for the best. For now, we seem stable at around $1254 and $18.25. Let's hope we can make it through the rest of the day but be ready for a wild ride on Friday with the BLSBS being released at the usual 8:30 am EDT time slot.

TF

64 Comments

infometron's picture

Hoping to be first

Yah baby! Nailed it!!

Yikes, Turd, talk about a dark cloud!

You'll probably be right, as usual, but let's hope for a BIG SQEEZE!

?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Short squeeze of niet

For both silver and gold!

ancientone's picture

Silver Coins-Always My Favorite

billhilly's picture

just hoping...

...for this ;

marchas45's picture

Let's See 4th

Yea!! Baby!! Keep Stacking

Damn Turd I hope your wrong this time. I was hoping for a big upsurge, as that's what all the big Gurus are saying about March. Wait a minute it's April!! Did I miss something?

Boing_Snap's picture

5th

JW is talking derivatives, good filler till Mr. Turk.

Compwiz4u's picture

Silver - Pitch Fork Style 2-Hour Chart

Silver is following the trend lines on its 2-Hour Chart. It is coiling for a break out either up or down. I know the COT structure leads us to think the break will be down, but at some point we will see the "commercial signal failure" & sharply higher prices as they run for cover. (If we all pray hard enough, we may get it.)

ag1969's picture

Seriously Turd?

Mother is going to take Twitter questions?  Don't any of those idiots remember #askJPM?  I can't wait for this!  This might be the comedy event of the year.  LMAO... get the popcorn ready...

The Wetback Surgeon's picture

Question for Turd

Recognizing you are not a financial advisor, is the situation we are seeing in silver the perfect setup for a simultaneous put AND call option?

It seems we are fairly certain of dramatic movement tomorrow morning, but uncertain as to direction.

Dr Jerome's picture

Fear you are right

I am running out of hope. Only cure I know is more stacking.

I love your term "fantasy silver," Turd.  

Love it so much, I created some here this morning--just as good as the ones & zeroes that COMEX creates.

Next I'll go to Chicago and try to take delivery. I'll let everyone know how that works out for me.

RickshawETF's picture

Top Ten?

Yes!  Sneaking in under the wire . . .

Stack on!

Orange's picture

Hoping to be right.

Filling up my car yesterday, I was not thinking about anything in particular, just looking around and suddenly, for no apparent reason, 33.28 popped into my mind.

Perhaps we are going to see a quick short squeeze!

104365's picture

Hoping to be right.

When sentiment is negative.... It's time for a nice miracle surprise!  $33.28 is a nice figure.  I will be visualizing this in my head today. 

billhilly's picture

just wondering...

...why would all these specs be buying contracts up here at this capped price when they too must see the OI ????  What is their motivation ???

I just cannot believe that they are simply fools, recklessly adding contracts, waiting to be scalped.  It doesn't make sense.  If anything, caution would seem the order of the day(s), yet demand is still strong apparently.   WHY ??????

I agree with Turd; the set-up looks ominous, and tomorrow may very well be a total blow-out.  Yet, the logic still escapes me.  I then have to figure that maybe something else is happening below the surface.  But if there was, you'd figure JPM and their buddies would surely see it and not be supplying all these long contracts....damn !

This truly puzzles the mind...

The pressures behind both Gold and Silver seem immense.  The way they keep butting-up against these many averages and resistance levels can only go on for so long and, to me, it seems they want to go higher. 

I don't disagree with Turd's outlook here, and he will probably once again be proven right, yet since I cannot make sense of the situation, and hate to disregard my instincts, I'm going to stay on the long side through tomorrow.  sigh...

infometron's picture

Just to be cautious...

Upon reflection, I've increased my cash position by 10% this morning, by selling some of my more liquid mining stocks. Also reallocated a wee bit more to sweet mary jane, buying into a new ETF on the TSX:HMMJ. First ever of its kind, so I'm told. Just started trading this week, opened at CAD$10/share, currently trading at 10.40.

Standard disclaimer, not investment advice, dyodd.

Edit: Darn! Missed the A2A!!

RickshawETF's picture

@orange

"Filling up my car yesterday . . ."

At the gas station, or your LCS . . . ?

Just askin'

Orange's picture

At the gas station

But if silver shoots to $33.28, I will be filling up my Goldmoney account.

goldcom's picture

No sence to me either billhilly

I get Turds explanation that the specs just need a hedge of exposure to the metals or same Bullion banks with offshore accounts taking the other side of trades but after years of the same ole same ole rinse job who in their right mind would actually play this game?

I think I saw something on Silver Doctors some time back where someone suspected the hedgefund guys got reimbursed after the cycle for their play along or maybe most all of Comex activity is a sham. Just digits in the wind on a computer screen. Pay off or collect from the small individual traders and put together reports that should intimidate most people. Hell, if the CME is paid for all the fictitious activity they are going to stay mum about it.

At some point China and/or Russia will play their gold hand. That is what will change this. 

I think they are just churning this sideways above the $1220's that Andy M talked about

indiana rod's picture

I Agree

With billhilly.

Some how it feels different this time. The longs haven't flinched. Maybe they won't cave in this time.

Plus, how many of those longs are J P Morgan proxies?

Plus, there are nearly as many shorts to hold the price under $18.50 as there were last summer to cap the price at $21.00.

It just seems different this time.

Orange's picture

Wow

If Bo is correct, next week will be critical. $33.28 would seem low under what he expects.

seneca sam's picture

Potential Yard Sale

Consistent Great Analysis from TFMR,  Ive maintained a cash cushion since December and if the banks want to smash silver...I'll consider Turd's 17.20 price to buy. A move to 17.20 will be a drawdown on my account...but Im looking at these manufactured sell offs as sales....

cstacey's picture

At the gas station

Be careful around those fumes

Fatso's picture

@ goldcom @hillbilly specs be buying contracts

''Today we learned how the bankers are cash settling comex contracts once we enter an active delivery month.  There is an obscure private contract called an EFP which allows a banker to enter into a contract with a long to receive a bonus fiat along with a roll to the next active delivery month. The transaction is private so we do not know how much bonus they received. Thus every time that I told you that comex contracts were “cash settled” these past several years, they actually were cash settled as I described above. This kills the spirit of a physical delivery process!!"

copy and paste from April4th Harvey Organ

Turd Ferguson's picture

Be sure to read this!

MODERATOR

Don't get stuck in the minutae of trying to understand what a eurodollar is. Instead, be sure to note the similarity to the 10-year rate chart that we follow so closely. Does this breakdown in eurodollars foreshadow a breakdown in rates? Is the 10-year rate going to fall sharply toward 2%. How high will CDG spike in this scenario??

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-06/key-reflation-trade-support-level-just-broke

Soaraspen.com's picture

Given TF's analysis?

I am wondering if a good plan today is to stay long the metals directly, but short the miners. For example I am not selling PSLV or PHYS or CEF, but I sold some MUX today as a result of TF's warning above. This way you lower your risk, but maintain exposure to metals. 

Safety Dan's picture

Duterte orders military to

Duterte orders military to occupy PH islands in South China Sea

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/06/17/duterte-orders-military-to-occupy-ph-islands-in-south-china-sea

Overdue, but better late than never. Watch what happens next. 

marchas45's picture

Silver - Pitch Fork Style 2-Hour Chart

(If we all pray hard enough, we may get it.)

You Got It Compwiz4u

 

Dr Jerome's picture

I've been watching trendlines of the the $Y chart

Which way will it break?   

AGAU's picture

Cot rinse and repeat fleecing so

somehow these dirtbags are taking it out of one pocket and putting it back in the other

I agree with comments that these are not dumbassed enough to get "fleeced" every time, they are creaming it back some how

benque's picture

billy - specs

Don't think of them as people watching charts, deciding when the best time to buy is.  Totally NOT!

The specs are hedge funds, pension funds, mining companies, and the like.  The funds simply allocate x% to gold and/or silver on crimex monthly, quarterly, etc...in accordance with the market cap of the fund, of which the gold or silver allocations are just window dressing to show that they have "hedged some risk".  They couldn't give a rat's a$$ whether they gain, or lose everything in these allocations.  They'll be back next month, or quarter, regular like clockwork.

If the crock market crashes big time, then I would assume they too would liquidate their "risk portfolio" of metals, in accordance with their plummeting market cap, to attempt to maintain their ratios.

Mining companies must hedge forward production to satisfy their bankster/financier masters.  CFOs of mining companies all have MBAs, which guarantees that they are thoroughly indoctrinated by the criminal, thieving banksters.  They also sell forward any increases in forecast production, and buy forward any forcast decreases.  This is intended to stabilize revenues and cash flow, so that they can pay their loans on time to the criminal, thieving banksters.

As well, much of the specs buying and selling is due to seasonals and stop loss/stink bid orders, which have nothing to do with ratios or production, but MBAs think they reduce risk.  See?  They do as they are told, and get fleeced every time.

As long as the crock market is levitating higher, nobody gives a damn about their "little risk portfolio", as it all makes some twisted kind of sense to them.

This is all off the cuff for me, and may be incorrect in some ways, but pretty much is the gist of it.  Corrections are welcome.

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