GAN2017 Begins To Crumble

With the defeat late Friday of the Trump-Ryan healthcare bill, the realization that GAN2017 is in jeopardy has suddenly seemed to grip the "markets".

There's a lot going on this evening, thus this unusual Sunday night post. We'll go into much more detail on Monday but, suffice it to say, The Generally Accepted Narrative for 2017 is beginning to crumble. If you're unfamiliar with GAN2017, please take a moment to review this post from January: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8103/questioning-generally-accepted-narrative

Two links you should be sure to read before Monday gets rolling are here:

And this is a now a major, looming problem, too: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-26/edge-uncontrollable-liquidity-event-definitive-guide-chinas-financial-system

So, the POSX is falling, the USDJPY is down over a point, S&P futures are off by nearly 20 points and CDG is approaching $1260 and a critical test of the 200-day MA.

First, note the breakdown in the POSX:

Speaking of breakdowns, check the swoon in the USDJPY that has fully reversed the late Friday ramp and is now making new 2017 lows.

The Long Bond is back under 3.00% while S&P futures are tanking:

And, most importantly, Comex Digital Gold is approaching the 2017 highs seen back at the end of February and it appears ready for that test the 200-day moving average that we've been expecting. Watch very closely overnight and through the London morning.

Much more in the morning.

TF

 

53 Comments

Turd Ferguson's picture

OK, back to business

MODERATOR

If you want to keep the weekend forum open, please continue to use the Friday podcast thread. It's time to get back to business, however, so let's focus on the PMs and other "markets" here.

Maestro's picture

Booya

a technical "first" it is!  And welcome the refocus on metals!

chrtoo's picture

Silver!

Right there, that's on topic!

Thanks Turd!

CHR.

tonym9's picture

wow TF...all for pennies a

wow TF...all for pennies a day

what do you think the effect option expiry will have? i'm beginning to think little, if any at all. USD 99.16 as I type

Fred Hayek's picture

This is a fascinating and sobering article from silver doctors

The single thing I thought was most interesting in it is that the author mentions in passing that one currency was printed 12 times over; the amount of currency in circulation went up by a factor of 12 but this resulted in inflation much greater than that, 14,000 times.  Once the confidence leaves the con game, peoples' minds are damn hard to change back.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/finance-news/currencies-vs-gold-and-silver-bullion-from-a-central-europeans-perspective-1917-2017/#more-77298

Fred Hayek's picture

If they encounter Jeopardy, the financy boys will say

Boing_Snap's picture

Alasdair and India update

Good discussion on the attack on cash in India that is escalating into a full on dictatorship.

NUGTCALL's picture

Greyerz

simjojim's picture

You see

if they didn't trim 6 bucks off the CDG price last thing Friday, we'd already be in the 1260's.  

Dr Jerome's picture

AU 1% cap

I wonder if they will hold this cap all night and then shove it back down in teh morning?

lakedweller2's picture

AU

Is it a duck?

Turd Ferguson's picture

Level to watch

MODERATOR

We may have found the line of defense for USDJPY. Keep an eye on this 110.30 level overnight.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-26/yen-on-the-comeback-trail-as-momentum-builds-for-a-break-of-110

simjojim's picture

Lost Confidence

Exactly right about confidence/trust.  I'd say once lost almost impossible to get back.  Think a cheating husband/wife caught, how many caught adulterers have regained the full trust of their partners?  The mainstream media, how many people in the last year or two have lost confidence in these institutions?  Confidence/trust across the board in every aspect of life is being lost at an ever increasing rate every day and it should come as no surprise as it works it's way into the financial system.  That's what the raids on paper gold and silver have been partially about, smash the price for no reason and people won't have any trust in it as an investment, especially if you do it often enough.  We understand that here re. gold but try and tell Joe Blow on the street why 3 months of gains in gold can be wiped out in a few minutes on the COMEX, again and again and again. Without knowing what we do,  of course he's not going to have trust/faith/confidence in gold.   The good news for us is, as more confidence is lost going forward there is nothing the criminals will be able to do to dampen gold's rise. All in my opinion of course.

billhilly's picture

"sorry Mr. Dimon"...

...."we were just having a snack; yes Sir, we'll get those computers fired right up and do a little smash dance on the Gold market"  !!!!

Green Lantern's picture

 http://www.zerohedge.com/

  •  

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-26/nightmare-scenario-gop-funding-hole-much-2-trillion-bigger

Could zerohedge understate the seriousness of the tax problem Trump will cause just a little more??

Whatever minor tax savings Trump will be able to put through, will be offset by his lies about NATO.  

He stabbed millions of American's in the back by changing his stance on NATO and boosting America's Imperial Army Machine. 

He said that Europe would have to start defending itself.   BULLSHIT.  HE's gonna hand them money on Trump Tower Dollies. 

Trump's military spending will outweigh whatever savings he can pull off on the Obama tax.   

The Blundering of America!! Political Promises.   

KEEP STACKIN' :)

abundance's picture

note the 30 and 10 yr pricing!..'high'

yields are now gone!

Marcrward's picture

Cup and handle

Looks like another gold cup and handle broke...

Turd Ferguson's picture

This is all about GAN2017, too

MODERATOR

Just a lot more fancy words and smart sounding finance lingo...all used in an attempt to justify a 7-figure salary and bonus structure. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-26/rbc-emergency-market-update-big-trouble-consensus-trades

AGXIIK's picture

My take on the Chinese uncontrolled liquidity event

Taking the cue from my AM liquidity event when the sewer backed up in the house,  the nature of the investments available for WMPs (Wealth Management Products) if I recall that acronym, are mostly recycled rewashed garbage handed from WMP to WMP and asset manager to asset manager, each hoping that the crap sandwich investment does not blow up on their watch

The Chinese shadow banking enterprises see their collateral drop 25-50% in value. State run companies and banks default because of the garbage in their portfolios and mama PBOC won't play ball any more

It's like a franchise of Chinese laundries each taking in the other's wash,  combined with a circular firing squad and a $35 trillion Ponzi scheme all wrapped up in one pork dimsum roll. This game of monetary musical chairs will end when no one trusts anyone else and all want their money now. Like the 2007-08 credit crisis in the US that resulted in a liquidity lockup and lock down.  The direct and indirect bail outs were on the order of $15-20 trillion USD

My only hope is that we get just one more bubble, one more lousy bubble and then we'll be good and not do this stupid stuff any more   Other than stacking gold and silver. 

See, even I can stay on topic.

tyberious's picture

Spot on!√

The cause and result of the gridlock in D.C.

From the Chris Martensen article; "The boomer generation in charge has a lot to answer for in this story; from their inability to lead boldly, to their selfish pushing-off of the repercussions of their own poor decisions onto future generations"
The boomer generation worked hard but, lost control of the political process. The control matrix went into overdrive and we rarely heard the truth. If we protested the wars, we were brutally repressed. The military-industrial-banking complex made sure that any anti-war movements were vilified. Out of ignorance of the facts, we elected some bad politicians. But, the war party was the only party that we could chose "from".
Our "poor decisions" consisted to a great degree on believing the promises from GOV. We assumed that the politicians had the best interests of Americans at heart, not the best interests of israel.
We made fatal decisions based on the info presented by MSM. We are / were chemically dumbed down so as not to question the State narrative.

The endless deceit has led the country into a financial impasse. All that is left is a consortium of rackets. EVERYONE is fighting to hold on to their advantage and sinecure. It doesn't matter what happens to everyone else as long as I continue to get my "due" share. It doesn't matter if I produce nothing,,, just so long as I get my rewards.

Here are some comments;
This is what ZIRP is doing the the economy - creating a buildup of zombie banks and corporations, captured regulators and bad debts that is smothering the economy. At some point there will be a combination of factors - an exogenous or endogenous shock, and there will be an economic firestorm that no amount of money printing can paper over.

We already know the legislature is not well-functioning. If they do not compromise, and if you do not accept compromise, then you reject America - and everything which America stands for! You are not a real American, if you're against compromise. Compromise is the only reason for the existence of the legislature.
Be arrogant, if you must. Be sold on your own narrow but utterly impossible little prophetic vision for how the world should work. But know this, though you will laugh it off, mock it, you were one of those who formed the basis of the destruction of the systems of govenment.

The fourth turning is here, and plain. Gone are the old men who could compromise.

10,000 large and small mill towns and manufacturing cities are dead, supported by McDonalds, Social Security, Disability, town/county shuffle jobs.

20 million illegals taking jobs, pumping up welfare burdens, sending cash home. 5 million H1B keeping tech fat. 1 million legal from 3rd world bring grandma with the brain tumor over.
I do not speak of fairness. I speak of the fourth turning. What do you think representative democracy is for? The whole point is to reach compromises. But the Baby Boomers are a bunch of spoiled brat arrogant idiots, who insist on always getting their way. Now they drive the ship of state into the ground.
But let's be clear. If you cannot abide by compromise, then you aren't even an American. You're an overgrown baby that cannot call himself an adult.

No compromise? No legislative government. No America.
Your mind is captured by a perverse dynamic that is dominated by politics.
We have not had a free market democratic republic since the Civil War.
What we have is an immoral warfare state funded by an entirely unsustainable debt based monetary system. This cannot be reformed. It must be blown up.
The headlines should be dominated by talk of enterprize, prosperity and caring. But they are dominated by politics, war and monetary central planning.
What do you think the purpose of a legislature is? Do you suppose the point is to NOT compromise? What a JOKE!

The comments are very harsh on baby boomers. It must be remembered that the average boomer had no immoral part in the destruction. The boomer politicians are a different story; McCain: "The New World Order Is Under Enormous Strain" | Zero Hedge

streber's picture

Sunday night excitement usually ends badly.

Perhaps it's different this time. 

Lemming's picture

Whiplash

Not what you wanted to hear tonight but gold, silver and miners are going to tank. I'm sure that the failure of the Obummercare vote was announced Friday in order to give the Plunge Protection Team a weekend to attempt to rig the markets back up, but we've waited an inordinately long time for a meaningful correction. The sell orders are likely to be of Tsunami proportions by morning.

The stock market operates on margin, on huge leverage. Even a minor panic at this late, over-extended, over-priced stage will result in enormous dislocations.

30 years ago I understood the logic of sound money, (gold, silver), and was absolutely certain that panic and fear in fiat denominated instruments would necessarily result in a stampede into precious. It will, but not immediately as you hoped. First the herd will sell everything in sight in order to meet margin calls. Silver, gold and most certainly anything that resembles a stock, (miners), will be sold hard. I lost big in silver futures in October 1987 when the stock market collapsed. Back then it took silver a long time to come back.

I see that the herd is running to bonds tonight and that will likely continue as panic sets in. How much would you like to have invested in bonds as the dollar collapses? Have another look at the POSX chart that Turd displayed above. Looks like we will blow right through 99, next stop 97.

You have been waiting interminably to exit these precious metal doldrums so cheer up, this is the beginning of big volatility. A country as politically divided and ungovernable as this one has an enormous storm front on the horizon. Will we weather the storm? I don't know whether you personally will, but your stack will come through this shinier than ever.

GoOto123's picture

Don't get too excited

In the last 4-5 years I've been burned by the apparent & proverbial "green shoots" in gold.  If "they" can't fix the rising gold price during the option expiry and contract expiry, then, maybe then I might jump up with excitement again. 

infometron's picture

Winning?

I think that small little question pretty well sums up market sentiment right now

@VikingKing6's picture

Long GPL and Short SPY

WOOHOOO!

TF is DA MAN!!

Rock and roll!!  Give me another shot of espresso!!

yukon123's picture

greg hunter-john williams

infometron's picture

Where the real action is this morning

fut_chart.ashx?t=DX&cot=098662&p=m5&rev=

fx_image.ashx?usdjpy_m5_l.png&rev=636261

Boing_Snap's picture

Option expiry market action detailed

As we await the usual trade going the Cartel's way, we have commentary on just how its done.

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