Endless Fed Deceit

Tue, Mar 7, 2017 - 12:26pm

Of course, we all know that the benevolent and altruistic organization called The Federal Reserve is on a rate hike regimen because the US economy is "booming" and "robust". Oh, really? After just +1.6% "growth" for 2016, Mr. Donut in Atlanta today lowered his Q1 GDP projection to just +1.3%. That sure sounds robust to me!

Before we get to the current status of this booming economy, please allow me to remind you of a few things. First of all, this oldie-but-goodie from 2015...when The Fed first began jawboning about rate hikes and normalization. The entire investment world may forgotten this but, rest assured, we haven't. If you don't like the GDP numbers, just force the government beancounters to double their "seasonal adjustments": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-22/gdp-changes-coming-in...

And what did this accomplish? Well, in the words of ZeroHedge, "as of July 30, the Q1 GDP which will have seen its final print at -1% or worse, will be revised to roughly +1.8%, just to give the Fed the "credibility" to proceed with a September (2015) rate hike". See more here: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-22/us-department-commerce-officia...

So, now that you're reminded of the fuzziness of the Govt/Fed math, let's take a look back at 2016. Recall that Q4 was just revised lower to +1.9%. This actually brought up the average for all of 2016 and the year finished with a whopping +1.6% "growth" in the US. Be sure to note that this article describes this as "the worst economic performance since 2011": https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/28/second-estimate-of-us-q4-2016-gdp.html

Fast forward to today and feast your eyes on the latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and our friend, Mr. Donut. Be sure to note that he began his Q1 guesswork at +2.3% and almost immediately proceeded to raise it all the way to +3.4% by early February. Well, here we are in early March and Mr. Donut has been forced to trim his forecast again today...this time by another 0.5%...and now the official GDPNow forecast is for Q1 2017 "growth" of just +1.3%.

Yes, that's right, an incredible +1.3%. And where have we seen that number before? Oh, yea...That was the goal-seeked, double seasonally-adjusted number that The Fed first mandated barely two years ago when they began to set out on their Fed Funds rate hiking scheme. And here we are again. But recall, back in the days before the "methodology changes of 2015", +1.3% would have been about -1.5%. Neat trick, huh?

So again we ask, what is The Fed really trying to accomplish here? Even with the revised methodology, the US economy is barely spitting out economic growth and there are still a record number of 94,000,000 people not in the labor force. The Fed now claims to be concerned with future price inflation but, as we wrote two weeks ago, the inflation numbers are clearly managed for goal-seeking too: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8163/sudden-onset-inflation

And here is where the curtain is pulled back to reveal the central bankers' true intention. Their sole purpose is to promote the interest of their owners and member banks. Period. And in 2017 they've clearly decided that it is in the best interest of their shareholders to raise the Fed Funds rate more than once. The sycophant media then parrots The Fed's lies to the masses regarding a "dual mandate" and here we are...one week from the second FF rate hike in 90 days even though the moribund US economy continues to limp along in its attempt to recover from the disaster brought upon us by the very same Fed and their Banks in 2008.

Lastly, just two more reminders of just how evil and nefarious this organization has become. As you likely know, the Fed sequesters all of the FOMC meeting minutes for a minimum of five years before they're released to an amnesiac public and media. If you missed this story back in January, perhaps you should read it now. This is your compassionate FOMC on display for all to see: https://theintercept.com/2017/01/27/federal-reserve-bankers-mocked-unemp...

And maybe today would be a good day to re-watch this astounding presentation from our friend, John Titus. Five years after the onset of The Great Financial Crisis, the minutes of the FOMC meetings from back then were finally released and John intricately details the depths of the lies and deceptions that were foisted upon all of us in 2008. Be sure to note the brazen quality of this fraud and then ask yourself if anything at all has changed in the nine years since.



About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Mar 7, 2017 - 12:30pm

1st in Japan


Up early in Japan

Mar 7, 2017 - 12:31pm


My fave.


Mar 7, 2017 - 12:37pm


It's a good day to stack . . .

Bought me 11 ounces yesterday, and today it's on "sale"!

Mar 7, 2017 - 12:41pm

uhhhh Mom ?????


everyone hang in there !

Mar 7, 2017 - 12:46pm

North Korea state tv in full war mode?

Not sure what to make of this site but I'm putting it out there. Claims to be providing information from conflict zones.


Mar 7, 2017 - 12:49pm

Huge news

it true.

DHS Chief Says Obama Did It, 1536
Mar 7, 2017 - 12:49pm


Mellow, Going to Cali, might have been in 1970, now, take a tent and some Mace.


shocking place in Downtown Los Angeles
Mar 7, 2017 - 12:50pm

The FED dual mandate is....

employment and inflation

not GDP and the economy

the FED is going to do whatever is good for the banks and Deep State

Verus nemo
Mar 7, 2017 - 12:51pm

Craig, in your sleepless & distracted state

I believe that you may have posted the wrong John Titus video. While the one you posted is my favorite of his, his video entitled, "They came from Planet Plutocracy" (or something like that) is more consistent with the message you were conveying in your text.

I'm glad to learn that your family is home and recovering after a scary night at the hospital. All of us who are parents ourselves sympathize!

Mar 7, 2017 - 12:51pm

The "dual mandate" is what we referenced in this paragraph

So again we ask, what is The Fed really trying to accomplish here? Even with the revised methodology, the US economy is barely spitting out economic growth and there are still a record number of 94,000,000 people not in the labor force. The Fed now claims to be concerned with future price inflation but, as we wrote two weeks ago, the inflation numbers are clearly managed for goal-seeking too: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8163/sudden-onset-inflation

Verus nemo
Mar 7, 2017 - 12:52pm

You're right

I'll fix this now. Only one major error while working on three hours of sleep and three cups of coffee. Not too bad, I guess...

Mar 7, 2017 - 12:57pm

Dual mandate I recently read the book Fed Up

I agree with the author that the dual mandate needs to be abolished and that the fed should be concerned only with preservation of purchasing power for US citizens and that employment is better managed with fiscal policy and not monetary policy.

NUGTCALL billhilly
Mar 7, 2017 - 1:00pm

Uhh mom?

Hike rates I guess

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:06pm

GDP (Chuck Butler...yesterday)

Now, let’s switch to the economy.. 1.9% GDP Growth in the 4th QTR… 1.3% is the new forecast or the 1st QTR 2017… And for the last 10 years, the average growth in the U.S. has been below 2%.. That’s pretty anemic don’t you think? Well, once again, I turn to John Williams to see what he thinks about U.S. GDP… Well, since 2004, it has been negative according to John Williams… Negative GDP for more than 10 years! And people laugh at me when I say we’re in a depression not the recovery of a recession?

So… No recovery… No Jobs… No growth… But not to worry, the Fed, led by Janet Yellen, is going to hike rates when they meet in about 9 days..

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:06pm


...I don't recall if your "interview" with Andrew is going to be an A2A or just a private recording. Either way, would you consider asking him about the following topics if the chance/interest presents.

1. Curious about the "wholesale" orders he speaks about and how they are processed. Do they usually place bids and leave them there or are they continuously rebid to fit the market flow ? When he speaks of a floor does he mean that these bids usually hold pat until filled ?

2. Can he speak to/confirm the claims that Jim Willie makes, and others, about the Giant premiums that LARGE physical orders are now paying to get filled. JW states that there are 50, 75, even 100% premiums being paid.

Thank you sir.

Dr. P. Metals
Mar 7, 2017 - 1:08pm

Dual mandate

Let's see if we can simplify it a wee bit:

1. Enrich themselves through fraud, corruption and manipulation

2. While supporting their Satanic agenda


Mar 7, 2017 - 1:12pm

AM thesis on price support

looks like credibility is weakening. Rutt Roh Shaggy

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:17pm

Re Andy's credibility

Personally, I think he's only really stuck his neck out on the "reset in 90 days" thing. If price drops a few bucks below $1220, so what? Wholesale bids can be marked down on a daily basis, too, as buyers come to expect slightly lower prices before next Wednesday. Anyone holding him to some standard of excellency that prices would never dip again below $1220 is expecting too much. This pricing in of a March rate hike expectation wasn't even on the radar when Andy first put out the commentary on February 17.

Therefore, if the system survives through the end of the summer and nothing has changed and there has been no reset, I'm sure he'll accept all the casternation thrown his way. In the meantime, complaining about "another blown forecast" at this point seems to me to be just bitching to bitch.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:18pm

Turd ask's ???

So again we ask, what is The Fed really trying to accomplish here?

I think the MAIN thing the Fed is trying to accomplish is to retain some credibility !

They are fast losing face and they need to do something, anything, even including raising rates into a declining economy, just to keep credible.

Faith and credibility are the only things that hold together Fiat...the USD is losing both quickly (although you couldn't tell by the index), as are just about ALL Fiat.

I really am very fond of my shiny !!!

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:21pm

Look, this is just a

Look, this is just a continuation of yesterday and last week. As we discussed in yesterday's podcast, the paper gold derivative is being sold and, because there are more sellers than buyers ahead of next week, price is falling.

The only thing that matters to me at thhis point is the action around the 100-week MA in CDG and $17.25 in CDS. IF price falls back below those levels, then we have a problem. For now, this is just poor sentiment and lack of derivative demand...VERY similar to what was seen at the bottoms of the past two Decembers.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:26pm

I've no doubts that Fed cheats

On the other hand, can you measure GDP the same way John Williams does, using old models?....Economy and its profile has changed since.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:28pm

And one more thing

EVERY FREAKING WEEK we discuss what we call the Large Spec Net Long Ratio in silver. No one else uses this simple methodology and there is no doubt that it serves traders well in this grotesquely manipulated market.

As we discussed last Friday, this ratio is now at a record extreme of 6.04:1. With 115,299 Large Spec Longs vs just 19,086 Large Spec shorts, the idea that CDS would soon be falling/correcting is not very difficult to imagine as nearly every entity that was going to buy had bought and 19,086 was the lowest GROSS short position seen since March of last year.

Let this work itself out over the next few days and then let's see where we are by next Thursday.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:32pm

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:35pm

And on that Luke Gromen guy

I wasn't meaning to disparage him at all. I'm sure he's a perfectly nice guy and that report from last year was interesting and helpful.

I simply meant to inform everyone that I had already tried to get him for an A2A...before the comments filled up again with requests that I do so. That he didn't want to do it is likely just a measure of how busy he is.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:38pm

more sellers than buyers

Craig, please... does that statement make any sense....

I really don't think the price moves because buyers are pulling out or sellers are jumping in.

The price moves because the price moves, and the trades are created.

The banks are the market makers,

put together all the great research out there and you derive a posterior probability that the comex futures market is a PSYOP designed to have you expend your current energy for an energy IOU.

everything is energy, and the "charts" or "exchanges" represent NO ENERGY but they get you to dictate how you STORE YOUR EXCESS ENERGY.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:40pm


WARNING: Silver Shorts Will Look To Smash The Price Of Silver In Coming Weeks


Mar 7, 2017 - 1:46pm

What are we looking for?

It is not a great wonder why our nation is filled with the sick, mentally ill, and cancers forming across our lands. Do we look for the "good" in anything? Evil is around every corner, however, being able to find the good is illusive.

Yesterday, the wife and I headed to the big mall. I like to just sit and watch the people walking by. I noticed an older man, by himself, sitting at a table. There was a younger woman, a mall worker who was picking up trash. She stopped and began talking to the gentleman. I could see that they knew each other and she grabbed him and started hugging on this old vet. I thought that it was a lovely scene.

The wife and I decided to visit him at his table. He told us that he is 93 years old and that he came to the mall every day. Some of his friends also had been there to visit in the past but have passed onward. He told us about his service during WW2 in the Pacific. He related how the things he had to do , during the war, still caused him mental problems, even today.

Linda asked about his wife. He said she died last month and they had been married for 69 years. Now he just comes and sits in the mall. We fully understood why the woman came and hugged on this wonderful man. These are the things that bring life into the people and are a wonderful blessing to watch. We are thankful. What are we looking for?

Do we receive life from governments, politics, or listening to the continual strife in Washington D.C.? Extending compassion to anyone in need is more powerful/useful to the soul of man than anything upon the "news of the day". jmo Jim

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:46pm

Weak GDP

Probably related to all the midwest snowstorms this winter.

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:48pm

But I like playing devils advocate (Bitching)

So if the Fed raises rates now and does it again in May, and gold goes down to say <1180 does his thesis holds or is his construct wrong? Can you ask him? What would make him say his thesis is wrong? Thanks

Mar 7, 2017 - 1:50pm

Interesting reading

Not sure if posted here, but worth reading



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