Guest Post: "Don Yuan", by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital

Mon, Jan 23, 2017 - 2:54pm

Brent Johnson is a San Francisco-based hedge fund manager and he's a longtime friend of TFMR. He consistently puts out high quality, educational presentations and his latest is no exception.

Please carve out some time to watch this video. Over the course of 24 minutes, Brent addresses many of the themes that we discuss here on a daily basis but he comes to some different, short-term conclusions. Because of this, I thought it would be fun to hash out some additional thoughts on these subjects and have invited Brent to join us this Thursday for A2A.

So watch this video and come to your own conclusions. Then join us on Thursday when we continue the discussion.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


WingsofGold · Jan 23, 2017 - 3:07pm


thanks Turd

AGXIIK · Jan 23, 2017 - 3:58pm


# 2

brokerk22 · Jan 23, 2017 - 4:09pm


like another dude is bullish on the dollar. He is just one in a million. Everyone and I mean everyone is bullish on the dollar. Nothing to see here.

Marchas45 · Jan 23, 2017 - 4:20pm


Trying for (3) 4th's today. Keep Stacking

AlienEyes · Jan 23, 2017 - 5:50pm

Looks like everyone is bullish on the dollar.

Thank Mr. Trump for that.

People think that an America less likely to go to war is a stronger America.

lakedweller2 · Jan 23, 2017 - 8:23pm


War is a scam.

AlienEyes · Jan 23, 2017 - 8:28pm

lakedweller2 most cases.

CaptainDanite · Jan 23, 2017 - 9:52pm

Great arguments, as usual, by Brent Johnson

I really like Brent Johnson. I consider him one of the more compelling contemporary macro voices. He's done a lot of impressive analysis I have seen/heard/read in the past couple years.

I do have two immediate responses (less objections than reactions) to his most recent commentary: 

1 - I think it may, from this point forward, prove much more difficult than is widely believed for the banks to stimulate greater corporate, small business, and consumer indebtedness. My study of the question leads me to conclude that the level of global debt is approaching or has already effectively arrived at peak saturation. The expansion of credit has reached its organic limits, irrespective of any additional currency created ex nihilo, and no matter its cost (interest rate).

At any rate, yes, the dollar is very likely to go supernova. And with every point higher it grinds, so will the terror increase in the minds of significant numbers of investors who understand perfectly well how all supernovae conclude. 

2 - I think the bullion banks are destined to, sooner or later, "get out too far over their skis". 

In other words, I don't think it matters that they still haven't been able to cover all the shorts they put on to blunt and eventually turn back the big gold bull move of the first part of 2016. In the context of current highly elevated risk levels, I believe it is inevitable that the bullion banks, some day in the not-so-distant future, are going to get caught sitting on a substantial short position when something big enough blows up. Be it economic or geopolitical, the effect would be the same: a sufficient fraction of the already skittish herd of western investors will get spooked by something; they will rush into gold with their tails between their legs, and they'll be like a tsunami running stops all the way up the bid stack. I wouldn't be surprised to see a $200 - $300 move in a 24 - 48 hour period. I think there is that much pent-up anxiety in the markets. And given the unprecedented and genuinely acute risks in the world, I think it is very likely that we will witness one of those panic-induced "spasms of mania" in 2017.

Now ... would it hold? Would gold establish at that higher plateau and use it as a springboard for even higher moves? Impossible to say without knowing what lights the fuse. In other words, it all depends on what catalyzes the move in the first instance. If the catalyst itself persists, then gold would almost certainly retain its gains, and even see a manifold increase in demand.

Either way, I would argue that enough factors are already present that even a relatively mild -- but unanticipated -- shock or spark could incite a moderately dramatic thrust higher. Whether or not the impulse of that envisioned thrust is sufficient to substantially alter current trend lines will remain to be seen.

boomer sooner · Jan 23, 2017 - 11:30pm

James Kunstler on Peak Prosperity

Following along with SRS's theme of peak cheap oil. Good interview.

James Howard Kunstler: The World's Greatest Misallocation Of Resources
James Crighton · Jan 24, 2017 - 12:40am

A good piece describing why the individual should prevail?

My elder (72-year-old) sister was born profoundly deaf in an era when heaing aids were not what they are now. Those of you who know about deafness from birth will understand how handicapped these people are in terms of communicating - and included in this is their inability to be fully informed in current affairs. Not surprisingly they have trouble with language - here we are talking of their home (and necessarily only) language - they never master that, let alone any other language.

As a consequence they / she tend to consume only what the MSM presents - which means she (my sister) believes Hillary / Globalism is great and that Trump (anti-TPP for e.g.) is evil.

Now, here's my question - I am looking for a written piece (or video with good subtitles) which addresses this issue - i.e. that globalism (as practiced by the bankers and the Rockefeller / Rothschild lot) is evil and that it is the individual and her / his rights that should be primary - can anyone give a reference (or more if possible)? Dr J, or Mr. Warren - you are men good with words, perhaps you know of one? Or of course, anyone else? I know Jon Rappaport might be a good source but he has written a great deal and I can't find a single (i.e. not the sum of many) reference which I can use to persuade such chronically misinformed people. Your help would be greatly appreciated if you can, without going to too much bother.

Remember, we are looking for a single piece to convert the indoctrinated.

Many thanks in advance.

sincerely, jc

Angry Chef · Jan 24, 2017 - 5:30am

Why The Individual Should Prevail

COMMON SENSE – 2017 (PART TWO) – The Burning Platform

James Crighton,

The piece above by Jim Quinn at the Burning Platform might be of interest to your Sister....

NUGTCALL · Jan 24, 2017 - 6:17am


Do you disagree with anything he said and if so what?

Thanks for sharing

NUGTCALL · Jan 24, 2017 - 8:30am


which is all part of why I thought Brent and I could have a fun discussion on Thursday 

NUGTCALL · Jan 24, 2017 - 8:43am



James Crighton Angry Chef · Jan 24, 2017 - 11:28am

Thanks Angry - 5:30am post

Many thanks Angry - that is perfect. Very grateful.


Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 12/10

12/11 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
12/12 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
12/13 8:30 ET Import Price Index
12/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
12/14 9:15 ET Industrial Prod. and Cap. Utilization
12/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales