Another Day In Paradise

74
Wed, Nov 30, 2016 - 11:19am

When you consider that the yen has weakened by more than 1% today AND that US long rates are up 11 bps to 3.06%, it's almost remarkable that "gold" is only down $11 as I type. Just another day for you and me in paradise.

And I've inadvertently stumbled into what must be my theme for the day. Earlier, I posted a few items to Twitter. The first thing that caught my eye were these two items in my timeline. In our fiat world, they're definitely connected:

So this sent me off to the debtclock site to see just how close it shows the US to being at the $20T level. Ummm...pretty close:

And here's where this inadvertently connects back to Phil Collins and his song. It's not about "paradise" or even the metaphorical version in which I've applied it to today's price action in the paper metals markets. Instead, the song is about inequality and how so many folks simply look the other way. "I'm doing just fine so screw everyone else" is such a prevailing sentiment that it almost seems a natural part of the human condition.

But it is the debt and the fiat currency based system that has caused most of the inequality that we see. Rampant currency devaluation and debt issuance are the root cause of the widening gap between "the 1%" and everyone else. Again, referring back to the debtclock page (https://www.usdebtclock.org), here's a buried nugget that illustrates the point:

So, while "upper class"...who have access to both capital AND debt...have seen their "wealth" increase, the vast number of people at the lower end of the income range are getting absolutely crushed. Ever wonder why "The American Dream" is in peril? The chart above tells you all you need to know. Who can buy a house when incomes stagnate while price doubles? For that matter, who can educate their children, care for their parents and save for retirement in this system? And you wonder why there seem to be so many new apartment complexes being built...

This debt and fiat based system is killing us. The election of Trump was a problem in search of a candidate. He's not the solution. He's only the vessel that great numbers of the disenchanted and disenfranchised chose to support in a desperate hope for something different and something better. But he won't succeed (and his appointment of this Mnuchin character as SecTreas likely betrays his intentions anyway). In fact, NO ONE will succeed and NO CHANGE is possible UNTIL the current Keynesian, debt-based system finally dies.

Sadly, understanding all of this and implementing the necessary changes against the established forces is too much to ask of "the common/forgotten man". Instead, by far the most likely outcome is a total destruction of the capitalist/democratic state. Eventually it will be replaced by some sort of socialist tyranny that promises an egalitarian nirvana...and the downtrodden masses, uneducated and thus unwilling to think critically in opposition, will be marched into permanent dystopia.

(WHOA. That was pretty heavy for a Wednesday morning. Now back to your regularly scheduled morning post.)

As mentioned above, it almost feels like a victory that "gold" is only down $12 or 1% in the face of everything else today. As I type, the Long Bond is up 10 basis points at 3.05%. See below:

And the USDJPY is up (yen weaker) by 1.57 pints at 113.95. As you can see, that's two full points higher since just last evening. Yikes!

So for now, nothing has changed. Until and through the FOMC in two weeks, we must expect continued dollar strength (yen weakness), higher rates and weaker gold. The only thing that actually has my interest is silver which, in response to all of the surging base metal prices, is actually holding in there at $16.61. Again, the key lines to watch are the 100-week MA near $16.40 and critical horizontal support at $16.00. As long as silver remains above these two levels, the possibility of a late year rally back toward $18 remains.

OK, that's all for now. Have a great rest of your day and thank you for reading my lunatic rantings.

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  74 Comments

Marchas45
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:22am

4th

You Betcha!! Nope!! Keep Stacking

joeblack
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:25am

new low in gold

$1171.30 feb futures

silver $16.505 march

yen 114.26

UulaBear
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:26am

Fif

On this Wonderful Fly Day!

forever20
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:27am

FOUR no dancing gifs

... but there is a vampire squid munchkin, oh dear

BLACKKITE
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:28am

Thank you Turd.

Unpredictable,confusing,volatile last quarter.

billhilly
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:31am

bronze

me....

ancientone
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:31am

Seven

Santa has been notified of my desire for more stacking material..


Nov 30, 2016 - 11:35am
BLACKKITE
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:36am

why.

Why I feel we are going lower?

Marchas45
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:39am

Turd

Did you vote for Trump? You can PM me your answer if you care to share. I'll sill Keep Stacking


Nov 30, 2016 - 11:39am

Taking a day off

Made a bit of fiat on an overnight JDST trade. Today, I am going to do my best to tune out markets, keep the charts off, ignore news. It is all just too much.

Just last week I decided to delay looking for a better "survival" property out side of hte city. and this morning what do I see but a ZH article on all the high end survival bunkers the elites are having built in rural areas. The article asks "what do the elites know that we do not."

Just when I was settling into some kind of new normal, with a bit of hope that Trump might at least hold the system together a while longer in an attempt to fix it, just then I see that article. Then when I arrived on campus, I walk past a large handwritten petition affixed to the old administration building "Martin Luther style"in the campus quad calling for change and activism on the part of students.

Are we fated to have a revolution? I suppose so.

matt_
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:40am

Everybody knows

..the fight was fixed. The poor stay poor and the rich get rich. That's how it goes.


Nov 30, 2016 - 11:41am

fwiw

Gold back to 2+% and silver back to 10+% premium.

Marchas45
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:45am

Charlie

As I explained in the podcast the day I voted, up to the final moments I was still unsure of what to do.

Ultimately, I became a "single issue voter" and my single issue is the avoidance of World War III. Therefore, I voted for Trump. That said, I am under no illusions that he will "drain the swamp"...whatever that means. If he's able to accomplish a few items such as pushing through term limits, I'll be very happy. However, I expect very little "change" and I'm afraid that anyone who voted for him in the hope of real "change" is going to be sorely disappointed.

Just one man's opinion.

matt_
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:47am

Or lets try this one

"Don't believe them when they tell me there ain't no cure. The rich stay healthy, the sick stay poor."

Marcrward
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:47am

Turdville

Together our network is strong, divided by fiat we are weak. Keep stacking.

infometron
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:48am

"They called it paradise...

I don't know why...

THE EAGLES -- THE LAST RESORT

"Call somewhere paradise, kiss it good bye."

tyberious
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:49am
Golden Turtle
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:49am

Hadukin!

Crazy...


Nov 30, 2016 - 11:52am

One more...

"Here in my head, it's just another day...in paradise."

brokerk22
Nov 30, 2016 - 11:59am

It

Looks like the dollar is going to 120. Unless the correlation changes we are totally fucked.

matt_
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:07pm

Re: Or let's try this one

I noticed these lyrics:

Don't believe in Goldman

His type is like a curse

Instant karma's going to get him

If I don't get him first.

Was U2 writing about Goldman Sachs?

canary
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:10pm

Wonder if the specs are turning shorts now

After selling all their longs.... It's Wednesday, so the COT should tell us a week from Friday.

billhilly
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:12pm

I hate to say it but...

...it sure feels like a break lower into the BLSBS on Friday. It does seem to be their modus operandi. Maybe on Friday we'll see some lows and an opportunity will present itself...until then, tread carefully.

and don't forget to put things in perspective..go out and look at the stars ! We really are such tiny creatures.

matt_
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:16pm

Actually no

There was a guy named Goldman who wrote a disparaging book about John Lennon.

Here's some background: https://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/12/books/an-embattled-albert-goldman-def...

infometron
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:17pm

@billhilly Beauty!

Great shot of the milky way! Is that what your sky looks like up there in northern BC?!

Yah, good time to be cautious, but also opportunisitic... picked me up an initial stake hold in some Fiore and doubled down on Oceanus at pretty darn good prices.

brokerk22
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:20pm

Well that depends

At some point, The Bullion Banks run into trouble delivering actual metal at the paper price. This was the "physical floor" we observed in 2015 near $1100 in gold and $14 in silver.

Hopefully we won't have to go through this again but, just as we've said all year, IF the USDJPY goes back to its 2015 highs 120+, paper gold is going back to near its 2015 lows.

Rvrider
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:23pm

Since you all are feeling philosophical ...

There's an interesting read, that will definitely stimulate your thinking about life, survival, love, war, money, eternity, and everything:

Sapiens

A Brief History of Humankind

Compwiz4u
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:26pm

GPL - Pitch Fork Style

It appears that $GPL (Great Panther Silver) is breaking out on its weekly chart.

It was one of the leaders in the first leg up this year & it could now be leading the pack again.

Now, if only the market manipulators would stand down & turn off their algos....

If anyone would like a free copy of my latest Premium Newsletter where I discuss GPL, send me a message with your email address.

BLACKKITE
Nov 30, 2016 - 12:34pm

Billhilly.

Nice photo of the constellation "Cygnus" the swan...

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