Happy Birthday, TFMR!

Yep, it was six years ago today that this crazy journey began. SIX FREAKING YEARS! It has been a crazy and wild ride and, if you'd told me six years ago that we'd still be doing this and that gold would still be just $1230 with $18 silver, I'm not sure I would have believed you. Yet, here we are.

So, congratulations (I guess) to everyone still on board after all this time. We've seen A LOT of ups and downs...though it feels like more downs than ups...and I'm sure we have many more in our future as the battle against the manipulative and evil Banks continues. Will we ever win? Yes, of course we will. As we've repeatedly stated: No institution based entirely upon a foundation of fraud, deceit and lies can endure indefinitely. So we persevere, confident in our cause and of the eventual outcome.

Though today it sure doesn't feel that way. It was late Wednesday when we began to fear a massive gold raid intended to force price to "catch down" to the relative valuation of bonds. Do you recall this chart from Wednesday's podcast? If you don't, this should only reinforce the notion that, in Turdville, if you miss a day you miss a lot.

And here's what we wrote just 24 hours ago:

So, sadly, here we are. Price is, in fact, cascading down today and moving toward the lower end of the $100 range that we've been saying for weeks would contain it through the end of the year. Now, though things look awful and desperate, we should expect stout support in the area around $1210 just as we saw stiff resistance near $1310.

On the way up in the first half of 2016, we consistently stated that the rally would continue as long as the trend in interest rates and the USDJPY remained down. Now on the way back down as those trends have reversed, we must be aware that, IF the USDJPY moves back to its old highs, GOLD WILL BE GOING EVEN LOWER. In fact, a more thorough glance at that chart above reveals some possibilities and risks of which we must all be aware. Can you see the potential of a massive head-and-shoulder pattern on this daily chart? I can! And any breakdown below $1200 will draw every permabear imaginable out into the open to declare that new, sub-$1000 lows are coming. So, be prepared and "gird your loins". If the prospect of a complete 2016 retracement is enough to ruin your life and your trading account, then you should just get out right now while you still have 15% gain in gold and an 80% gain in the miners. Again, the key will be found in how gold handles $1210. If it bounces, then we're OK. However, if it plunges straight through, watch out.

And these risks extend to silver, too. Earlier today, copper soared to a parabolic, blowoff top and, at one point, it was up 17¢ at $2.73. It's now DOWN 4¢ at $2.51 and in the process of painting about the nastiest, ORD engulfing candle you could ever imagine. As this pertains to silver, we wrote this yesterday:

With the Comex Dec16 price now down over $1 from its highs of just two hours ago and well below $18, we'd better expect more downside to come. I hope that silver finds support before it gets to $16.50 but it is critical that you understand that it might not. I can tell you...IF it does pull all the way back to $16, I'm going to buy myself the prettiest, 100-oz bar I can find to celebrate. However, knowing that there won't be much joy in Turdville IF this happens, this certainly is NOT something that I'll be rooting for. For now, just understand the short-term risks to the paper price and get yourself mentally prepared for what may still be coming our way. If, in fact, Trump is about to spark some kind of infrastructure and debt-filled "expansion", then silver will have a very nice 2017, just like all of the other base/industrial metals. It should also prosper due to its monetary value as the War On Cash continues and fiat currencies are devalued worldwide. In the very short term, let's hope the 200-day moving average, currently near $17.55, hold as support. If not, The Specs will flee in sheer panic and price could be at $16.00-$16.50 very quickly.

So, anyway, thank you (I think) for an adventurous six years. A wise man once told me that everyone should change careers every seven years or so and we're fast approaching that the end of that timeline. No worries, however, my friend. I'm in this till The End. Either we're going to finally break The Evil Banks' cruel domination of the paper derivative gold and silver "markets" or The Banks are going to break me. On way or the other, we will soldier on with deliberate intent. I hope the wisdom shared on this site...through the years and in the years ahead...keeps you in the battle, armed and prepared for anything they throw at us and confident of our eventual victory.




ArtL's picture

Lucky First

a small consolation for the smash in silver today.

Thor's picture



mavens's picture







First??? (nope, thurd)

Hi Monkey!

billhilly's picture


hits to the head today....Au, Ag, HUI, and Copper....Ow !

sorry Marchas !

Happy turday to you Craig, and ALL !!!

BigJ's picture

Congrats Turd!  And thank

Congrats Turd!  And thank you!

pbfurn's picture

Congratulations and Best Wishes

I genuinely appreciate your tireless efforts on our behalf!

canary's picture

Looks more like a Cartel's birthday

        Anyway...Happy birthday Turd smiley

Turd Ferguson's picture

And just so you know...


This is across all "commodities":

joeblack's picture

Harvey was right again

miners lead the metals smash

ChaCha Mars's picture

9th: Happy birthday, Craig !

And a hat tip to Mrs. Hemke for encouraging you! 


Good sign: 9 is God's number.  Good reminder as to who's in charge.

Blessings, all!

DPMS308's picture

Thank you Turd

For all of your guidance and effort over the years.  It is much appreciated.

abguy4's picture

today's PM smash

I greatly suspect that today's PM smash, is a back-handed B-Day present to you, and Turdville.

It's not as bad as that might seem. It's a recognition of what you and your comrades represent. You are more influential (and bothersome), in these affairs, than you suspect.


procog's picture

Congrats to you, Mr. Turd!

The reason we are all here may be occurring on your Anniversary.

10yr yield spiked over 21, 30 yr over 29.  The financial world is waking up to Turdville reality, maybe.

Happy Veterans' Day to all vets and their families.

Keep stacking.  It just might mean something.

TF Metals fan's picture

Happy anniversary Turd!

Turd: thanks for all the work you do, giving a sense of direction and feel for the markets through your lense.

Btw: Love the cake Canary!

Somewhere today however I was thinking: why is the same shit happening to the same guy over and over again. But glad to be in the same boat with all of you. 

cstacey's picture

Congrats Craig

And happy birthday TFMR

AIJ's picture

Craig it's really difficult to read the comments

...with the "Dating Russians in your way" AD to the right...

OBTW, Happy B-Day


Boxingbuddha's picture

Happy birthday Turd


LostMind's picture

Arizona just got called for Trump 290-228


Happy Birthday Turdville!! Congrats Craig on a job well done!

Keg's picture

Its really been that long?!

I'm aging faster than I realized.  Found the Watchtower blog a few months after it started.  

Turd Ferguson's picture

No better illustration


What a perfect display today is of the total and abject, fraud and scam of paper derivative precious metals trading.


  1. The current situation on the ground in India where desperate people are using gold and silver MONEY to settle transactions after the central government suddenly and unexpectedly decreed almost have of the fiat script to no longer be legal tender.
  2. The current situation in New York where computers are rapidly dumping digital scripts of paper that supposedly act as a proxy for this same physical gold.

AGAIN: No institution based entirely upon a foundation of fraud, deceit and lies can endure indefinitely.

Stand firm and soldier on. Only the consistent and diligent stacking of physical precious metal will prepare you for what is most assuredly coming...and these events will be far worse than what you are currently seeing play out in India.

Swineflogger's picture

Congratulations Turd

I have been following his Turdness up and down those crazy Watchtower steps for 5 years and 22 weeks and I'm getting tired.  I can say with a clear mind (I'm off the Dilaudid) and a heart full of affection that Craig has truly changed my life.  Thanks for all you do for us Craig.  Here's to many more years.

Ned Braden's picture

Battleweary.........Posted here in April 2013

Deju Vu - All over again?

Turd Ferguson's picture

That's a classic!


Perhaps our old pal Pining, with us from Day One, will chime in with a few of his favorites.

Here's one from way back!

cashonly's picture

Happy B-day TF Metals!!

It's been a great run with great folks!! 

I have no clue why this song popped into my head reading this thread:

goldcom's picture

Thank you Vets and Happy Bday Turdville

Though I have a much different opinion now about war than I did some years back putting way too much trust that our leadership thinking they must have had good reason for foreign interventions and war, however, I have as much or more appreciation for our Veterans.

Thank you Craig for such a great site. 

MrOnline's picture

Congratulations Turd

and thank you for your service and help. Stay strong my brother and God bless you and your family! Same wishes and blessings to all turdites. yeslaugh

Turd Ferguson's picture

A reminder of a reminder


This from just 48 hours ago...

Colonel Blimp's picture

Thank you Vets

As you can probably tell from the name, i am a Vet myself having completed 25 years in the Army of which 8 years was spent on Operations. I will remember many old friends today who didn't return - but would echo some of the previous comments that the best thank you would be to ensure the next generation don't get sent to be killed or maimed without a really good reason. I think the last time there was a good reason was WW2 or perhaps Korea. Every conflict since then has been bullshit (including all the ones i was involved in). 

Dr Jerome's picture

Trump vs Dodd-Frank?

Can someone guide me to a good explanation of Dodd-Frank?
From what I can see, dismantling the law is what Wall Street wants. On the surface it sounds good for people like us, but only if it is enforced, which I seriously doubt has been attempted.

happy b-day T-ville from a very weary stacker.

Whether I like it or not (certainly better than the criminal, war-mongering, alternative) He's My President.

Edit: My wife just received an email asking us to complete the Federal Student aid forms for our college student daughter NOW and use 2015 tax information instead of waiting for 2016 results. Hmmm ... very strange.  Are they that swamped with people going back to college? This will not end well...

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