Happy Birthday, TFMR!
Yep, it was six years ago today that this crazy journey began. SIX FREAKING YEARS! It has been a crazy and wild ride and, if you'd told me six years ago that we'd still be doing this and that gold would still be just $1230 with $18 silver, I'm not sure I would have believed you. Yet, here we are.
So, congratulations (I guess) to everyone still on board after all this time. We've seen A LOT of ups and downs...though it feels like more downs than ups...and I'm sure we have many more in our future as the battle against the manipulative and evil Banks continues. Will we ever win? Yes, of course we will. As we've repeatedly stated: No institution based entirely upon a foundation of fraud, deceit and lies can endure indefinitely. So we persevere, confident in our cause and of the eventual outcome.
Though today it sure doesn't feel that way. It was late Wednesday when we began to fear a massive gold raid intended to force price to "catch down" to the relative valuation of bonds. Do you recall this chart from Wednesday's podcast? If you don't, this should only reinforce the notion that, in Turdville, if you miss a day you miss a lot.
And here's what we wrote just 24 hours ago:
So, sadly, here we are. Price is, in fact, cascading down today and moving toward the lower end of the $100 range that we've been saying for weeks would contain it through the end of the year. Now, though things look awful and desperate, we should expect stout support in the area around $1210 just as we saw stiff resistance near $1310.
On the way up in the first half of 2016, we consistently stated that the rally would continue as long as the trend in interest rates and the USDJPY remained down. Now on the way back down as those trends have reversed, we must be aware that, IF the USDJPY moves back to its old highs, GOLD WILL BE GOING EVEN LOWER. In fact, a more thorough glance at that chart above reveals some possibilities and risks of which we must all be aware. Can you see the potential of a massive head-and-shoulder pattern on this daily chart? I can! And any breakdown below $1200 will draw every permabear imaginable out into the open to declare that new, sub-$1000 lows are coming. So, be prepared and "gird your loins". If the prospect of a complete 2016 retracement is enough to ruin your life and your trading account, then you should just get out right now while you still have 15% gain in gold and an 80% gain in the miners. Again, the key will be found in how gold handles $1210. If it bounces, then we're OK. However, if it plunges straight through, watch out.
And these risks extend to silver, too. Earlier today, copper soared to a parabolic, blowoff top and, at one point, it was up 17¢ at $2.73. It's now DOWN 4¢ at $2.51 and in the process of painting about the nastiest, ORD engulfing candle you could ever imagine. As this pertains to silver, we wrote this yesterday:
With the Comex Dec16 price now down over $1 from its highs of just two hours ago and well below $18, we'd better expect more downside to come. I hope that silver finds support before it gets to $16.50 but it is critical that you understand that it might not. I can tell you...IF it does pull all the way back to $16, I'm going to buy myself the prettiest, 100-oz bar I can find to celebrate. However, knowing that there won't be much joy in Turdville IF this happens, this certainly is NOT something that I'll be rooting for. For now, just understand the short-term risks to the paper price and get yourself mentally prepared for what may still be coming our way. If, in fact, Trump is about to spark some kind of infrastructure and debt-filled "expansion", then silver will have a very nice 2017, just like all of the other base/industrial metals. It should also prosper due to its monetary value as the War On Cash continues and fiat currencies are devalued worldwide. In the very short term, let's hope the 200-day moving average, currently near $17.55, hold as support. If not, The Specs will flee in sheer panic and price could be at $16.00-$16.50 very quickly.
So, anyway, thank you (I think) for an adventurous six years. A wise man once told me that everyone should change careers every seven years or so and we're fast approaching that the end of that timeline. No worries, however, my friend. I'm in this till The End. Either we're going to finally break The Evil Banks' cruel domination of the paper derivative gold and silver "markets" or The Banks are going to break me. On way or the other, we will soldier on with deliberate intent. I hope the wisdom shared on this site...through the years and in the years ahead...keeps you in the battle, armed and prepared for anything they throw at us and confident of our eventual victory.