A Brutal BLSBS

71
Fri, Nov 4, 2016 - 9:49am

Well, how is the "data-dependant" Fed going to spin this one?

Wow, that was one lousy BLSBS. We can start with the "disappointing" headline number of +161,000 "jobs". That alone stinks is certainly not enough "job growth" to warrant a FF rate hike next month. But then you dig into the data and it gets even worse...

  • An increase of 425,000 people "not in the labor force", bringing the total to 94,600,000
  • Rising wages only due to rising healthcare costs
  • The Household Survey showed a LOSS of 43,000 jobs
  • The Labor Force Participation Rate fell to just 62.8%
  • Total manufacturing jobs fell by 9,000

And you might recall these ZH charts from last month. Well here they are updated for October. Not only is ALL of the job growth in PART-TIME jobs, people are having to work MULTIPLE jobs just to make ends meet.

And yet, the "Unemployment Rate" fell 4.9% so you can be assured that not only will Obama/Clinton be out over the weekend to tout how "strong" the US economy is, random Fed Goons will also pronounce things "robust" as the US "nears full employment". What a massive, greasy, stinky pile of garbage. Lies. All lies.

Seeing through the bullshit this morning is paper gold, which is currently UP as I type at 05. If anything, it's nice that gold isn't being driven lower ahead of next week so, if we can just hold these gains through the day and finish the week near these levels, I'll be reasonably happy.

Again, if you want something to watch as we go through the day, keep your eye on the 50-day moving averages in both metals. For the Dec16 gold, this number is almost exactly 00. In the Dec16 silver, it's .53.

And keep an eye on the stock market today. Not only is it down 8 days in a row, it will be very interesting to see how it "trades" into the close and ahead of the weekend and next week. It's also sitting right at its own 200-day moving average, as you can see below. A weekly close below there will set off all sorts of alarm bells and negative headlines as we head into next week, too.

Lastly, here's today's Eric Sprott audio: https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-11416

Have a great day and try to be of good cheer. I'm going to be out most of the day and I will TRY to get you a podcast but I'm not certain that my schedule will allow it. If anything, I'll type up something after the markets close and give you some CoT analysis that way, instead.

Keep the faith,

TF

About the Author

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  71 Comments

Libero
Nov 4, 2016 - 9:50am

numero uno

now to read

okay silver: it's a tie

silver66
Nov 4, 2016 - 9:51am

first --- in my own mind

OMG missed it by this much two days in a row.....lol

Get Smart - "Missed It By THAT Much!"

silver66

08Gold-Wing
Nov 4, 2016 - 9:52am

????

where the hell is everybody? Number 1

Edit: ya thats what i thought,,,, too slow

billhilly
Nov 4, 2016 - 9:54am

4

damnit Marchas....where were you when I needed you ?

Now I'm gonna feel like a low down lilly livered slimy dog sumbuck ALL weekend long.

indiana rod
Nov 4, 2016 - 9:57am

Jobs Report

But---------but-----but Yahoo Finance said it was good for their girl.

16 jobs or 6 million, it's bad for precious metals and good for Hillary.

Aren't you glad we have a free and unbiased press?

Joseph Warren
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:08am

Rate Hike is a Certainty

in Bizarro World.

Lugnut
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:13am

Steve Liesman was closest

On CNBC this morning Steve Liesman came up with an estimate of 163,000 before the number was released. Actually has a model he uses to predict. He must be getting realistic nowadays after dealing with all of this BS. We can only hope.

BillD
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:32am

Erik keyed into all the facts

https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2016/11/04/erik-prince-nypd-ready-make-arrests-weiner-case/

“I wish they’d do it today,” he said. “These are the unusual sliding-door moments of history, that people can stand up and be counted, and make a real difference, and to save a Republic, save a Constitution that we actually need and love, that our forefathers fought and died for. For any cop that is aware of this level of wrongdoing, and they have veterans in their family, or deceased veterans in their family, they owe it to them to stand up, to stand and be counted today, and shine the light of truth on this great evil.”

matt_
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:36am

Wow, here is a different take on the BLSBS

From Yahoo news:

The October jobs report was perfect for Hillary Clinton

The October jobs report was fine at first glance and solid upon close inspection. And that’s great news for Hillary Clinton...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-october-jobs-report-was-perfect-for-h...

You say toMayto I say toMAHto. You say "solid" I say "lousy".

J Siefert
Nov 4, 2016 - 10:43am

Interesting talk about the Holocaust

Making Critical Thinking Illegal - Ole Dammegard on Red Ice Creations
Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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