October Comex Gold "Deliveries"

130
Fri, Oct 21, 2016 - 1:13pm

As we've been monitoring all year, the total amount of gold allegedly "delivered" through the Comex has soared in 2016. This is simply another anecdotal datapoint of gold demand but the trend is certainly noteworthy, particularly when you see the numbers thus far in October.

We've already written about this trend several times this year. Our most recent article is linked below and I strongly encourage you to read this post as a refresher before you continue.

As noted in the post above, 2016 has seen a very unusual "delivery" pattern for gold on the Comex. Consistent with surging open interest and surging demand for gold in all its forms around the world, "deliveries" of gold through the Comex have increased as well. However, when you compare "deliveries" for 2016 versus 2015, you'll notice that the divergence and increase didn't really begin in earnest until June if this year. See below:

As you can see, for the first six months of 2015, the amount of Comex gold "deliveries" totaled 4,149 for 414,900 ounces or about 13 metric tonnes. Through May of 2016, total Comex gold "deliveries" were 9,683 for 968,300 or about 30 metric tonnes. As you can quickly do the math, this is over a 2X increase and certainly noteworthy on its own merit.

However, beginning with the "delivery month" of June, Comex gold "deliveries" began to explode at a startling pace. Check the charts above again and note the totals over the past four months. For the period June-September 2015, total Comex gold "deliveries" were 8,832 for 883,200 ounces or about 27.5 metric tonnes. For the same period this year, total Comex gold "deliveries" totaled 39,646 for 3,964,600 ounces or about 123.5 mts. This is about 4.5X times the 2015 amount.

And now look at what has happened during the October...a month which is historically the lightest "delivery month" on the Comex calendar. Again, referring to the charts above you can see that the total number of Oct15 "deliveries" was 950 for 95,000 ounces or slightly less than 3 metric tonnes. Through yesterday, October 21, the Oct16 "delivery" total is a whopping 9,163 for 916,300 ounces or about 28.5 metric tonnes. This is over a 9X increase versus the same month last year!

And this gets even more interesting when you drill down into the day-by-day "deliveries" and open interest...

The Oct16 Comex gold contract went "off the board" back on September 29. That evening, there will still 7,393 Oct16 contracts still open and, with First Notice Day pending the next day, all of these remaining contracts had to be fully funded with 100% margin, indicating a willingness and financial ability to take or make delivery. The October deliveries began on September 30 and total Oct16 open interest fell to 4,458 as 2,470 contracts were "delivered" and 465 contracts were liquidated by speculators unwilling or unable to make the 100% margin requirement.

A normal "delivery" pattern would then show a declining amount of open interest in the active "delivery" month as gold is "delivered" and contracts are closed. However, as you can see below, it has been a very busy month. You should also be sure to note the current total:

So, contributing to the total "delivery" number that exceeds last October by a factor of 9.5, there has been a surge of new open interest that has entered the Oct16 contract with the intention of either making or taking immediate "delivery" of gold...electing not to wait for November or the huge "delivery month" of December. The additions of open interest so far total 1,523 contracts for 152,300 ounces or nearly 5 metric tonnes.

Of course, the Comex and CME Group deliberately make it nearly impossible to discern if this is a rush to buy or sell "gold" in October. This new open interest could be a party looking to immediately unload 0,000,000 worth of gold. However, it could also be someone or something looking to buy and take immediate "delivery" of 0,000,000 worth of gold. It could also be some combination of the two...no one can say with certainty. And much of this is the usual Comex Bullion Bank Circle Jerk where one Bank issues out the warehouse receipts while another Bank stops and takes "delivery".

Total Stops: Goldman 2,936, JPM 2,095 and Scotia 819

Total Issuance: Scotia 3,100, Goldman 1,409 and HSBC 532

You can see the entire report here: https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsYTDReport.pdf

And this is also interesting. Note the sudden involvement of two firms which had, heretofore, had very little if any activity:

More information on those two firms here:

For example, just yesterday, 608 "deliveries" were issued out of the House Account of Macquarie with 533 being stopped into the House Account at Scotia:

But I don't want to get bogged down in the minutiae as this post is not about attempting to unravel the riddle wrapped in mystery inside of an enigma that is The Comex. Instead, we simply wanted to draw your attention to the astonishing increase in the pace of Comex "deliveries". Again, this DOES NOT signal that some sort of Comex delivery failure is imminent or eventual. However, in an anecdotal indicator similar to surging ETF inventories, this massive expansion in the amount of gold allegedly "delivered" through Comex is clearly a sign of a significant increase in demand for gold and synthetic, gold-related investments in 2016. If this trend continues, you can be certain that the new bull market for price, which began early this year, will continue into 2017 and beyond.

TF

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  130 Comments

Orange
Oct 21, 2016 - 1:24pm

Hello Public

Become a member - Turd is worth one hell of a lot! And charges next to nothing!

oh yes, first!

DOOGIE
Oct 21, 2016 - 1:50pm

Duece will turn you loose

In like FLYNN almost !!!

Marchas45
Oct 21, 2016 - 1:54pm

Screw It

I'll Take 4th

gold slut
Oct 21, 2016 - 1:54pm

Just a second...

I'm SECOND!

OK, I take my hat off to you Doogie, by about a couple of nanoseconds... Are you a HFT trader?

LostMind
Oct 21, 2016 - 2:03pm

Glad to Take the Fufth

Can't afford to own the fourth anymore... Silver must go up!!!

ArtL
Oct 21, 2016 - 2:06pm

6!

hard to get even a top 10 these days.

canary
Oct 21, 2016 - 2:19pm
canary
Oct 21, 2016 - 2:21pm

re the Dow

That happened the last time it peeked below 18,000. I think it was early last week.

Swineflogger
Oct 21, 2016 - 2:25pm

Ocho

8ish

Oct 21, 2016 - 2:26pm

The GLD

Again, these ETF inflows are nothing more than a secondary indicator at best, as a proxy for actual gold demand.

However, it's interesting to note that after another 2.96 mt addition yesterday, the total GLD "inventory" stands at 970.17 mts. This is just 12.55 mts below the 2016 high of 987.72 on July 5...when price was at its 2016 high of $1380.

This also makes a total inflow of 23.48 mts since price was smashed through the 100-day MA and dropped to current levels two weeks ago.

Also...like this month...January, May and June saw similar, consistent inflows into "inventory" and price rallied in February, June and July. The months of April, August and September all saw net withdrawals and these were prior to the price drops in May, and late September into early October.

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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