Another FOMC Blitz

Wed, Aug 17, 2016 - 10:31am

I don't know about you, but ole Turd is sure getting sick and tired of these FOMC statements being some sort of be-all-end-all for the "markets". And with gold UP nearly $300 or 30% since The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate back in December, maybe we should all be pulling for higher rates anyway?

But, man, this crap is getting old. The FOMC rolls out a statement (the Fedlines) at the conclusion of each meeting and then releases the actual minutes of the meeting three weeks later. First of all, why the delay? I can understand not having the complete minutes available right at the conclusion of the meeting but we're supposed to believe that The United States Federal Reserve actually needs three full weeks for some clerk to cobble together the minutes for public release? That's freaking absurd!

Or look at it this way...We're supposed to believe that the BLS can come up with an uncannily accurate assessment of the amount of jobs added in any month within 2-3 days of the end of that month...BUT...The Fed needs three full weeks to spit out the minutes of its most recent meeting. GIVE ME A BREAK!

At this point, you should begin to realize what a scam this is. Do you recall the meeting of April 27 and the alleged minutes that were released on May 18. The Fedlines of April 27 were considered "dovish" and gold shot $65 higher over the next three days. However, by the time the minutes were released in May 18, a completely different picture emerged. The dovishness was gone, replaced by talk of "June rate hikes" and "live meetings". In turn, gold was smashed $82 over the next nine days.

Here's the complete summary from ZeroHedge follwoing the release of the minutes on May 18:

As ZH and many other wondered, how in the heck could the minutes vary so much from the stated Fedlines of just three weeks earlier? Well isn't it clear what your answer is??


After the disaster of the Fedline release on April 27, which sent bonds and gold higher while driving stocks lower, multiple Fed Goons were sent forth to talk up the dollar with hints of "a live meeting in June", etc. We called this The May Fed Goon Jawboning Event and it was quite successful, all the way until the BLSBS of June 3 let the air out of their balloon. The actual minutes of the April 26-27 FOMC meeting were obviously not consistent with the theme that The Fed was putting forth in May and, so, the 3-week lag period was used to doctor/edit the minutes into whatever The Fed now intended to say.

Seriously. Think about it. Is this crazy talk? Or is this a very simple and logical explanation of how/why the minutes and Fedlines were so mismatched in May?

And now here we are in August. The Fedlines back in July were benign and gold rallied nearly $40 in the four days that followed. Since then, price has been hard capped at $1360 even while the USDJPY has fallen sharply to a low early Tuesday of 99.57. Fed Goons were then sent forth yesterday to craft a story that, once again, "rate hikes were likely" and the "September will be a live meeting". This had the effect of propping up the dollar and weakening the yen. Within hours, the USDJPY was back to 101!! GIVE ME A FREAKING BREAK!!! Can you not see this coming?

So, let's hope ole Turd is dead wrong. Let's believe that our Fed Overlords have motivations that are honest and sincere. And let's cling to the notion that the minutes released later today really are the notes of the discussions held back in July. However, if suddenly LIESman declares the minutes "surprisingly hawkish" you'll know you're getting played again.

Should gold be smashed as it was in May, look for support at $1340 and then $1320. If we're dead wrong and gold rallies instead, hope for a rally and the strength to finally push through $1360.

That is all for now from The Land of The MOPE and The Home of The SPIN. More later today, after the release of the July FOMC minutes.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Aug 17, 2016 - 10:38am


But ugh...miners are getting hammered.

Aug 17, 2016 - 10:46am


Sorry. I got your spot, Marchas. Keep stacking!

Aug 17, 2016 - 10:46am

Looks Like

Another hedge fund free attack algo day on the miners courtesy of the POTUS and his cronies. Why do we listen at all to phony criminals...weak spine milk toast parasites.

Aug 17, 2016 - 10:48am

This month sucks. Should of

This month sucks. Should of known better and sold all of my silver/gdx options besides listen to the silver hype.

Miners are getting' wacked, looks like they are going to crush gold and miners some more this afternoon.

Hopefully i am wrong. Brutal capping, brutal august.

I am hoping all of this "action" have already been priced in, think about should be $1400 with usdjpy at 99 and silver and miners been selling off pretty much all week (especially silver)

hoping all this fomc crap is priced in and if there is a drop, it's not too bad.

finger crossed. I gotta remember to stay out during august!!

Iceberg Slim
Aug 17, 2016 - 10:49am

August has been decent for me

I've been buying.

Mr. Fix
Aug 17, 2016 - 10:55am


Listen folks, if the government says anything, please assume that it is a lie.

Focus on the overall agenda, and prepare accordingly.

The daily dose of bull crap, and the daily market gyrations are just a diversion, something to focus on, while the ruling elite consolidate their power over us.

This system is going down in flames, before our eyes.

Sure, we can focus on this slow motion train wreck, or we could focus on living outside this terminally corrupt system.

Focusing on these alleged markets won't have any upside when they no longer exist. Why wait?

Focus on things that actually matter, the things that are eternal.

Take good care of yourselves, and those that you love.

And don't take the daily dose of bull crap so seriously. In fact, I choose to ignore it.

Just remember that every day is a gift, and make the best of this one.

Have a nice day.

Aug 17, 2016 - 10:56am


if RIA's or brokers "jawbone" with the intent and accuracy the Fed boys and girls do, if CEOs did the same thing the Fed boys and girls do, RIAs, brokers & CEOs would face disciplinary action.

Aug 17, 2016 - 10:59am

Do Not Assume Fed Honest

Assume the Fed is a part of an International Crime Syndicate and everything they do is consistent with criminal activity directed at achieving the transfer of wealth to a small group of elites. They consider us all fools and act accordingly. They are aided by a bought out POTUS and Congress and the ones not bought out in Congress don't have the internal courage to voice an objection...or lack sufficient understanding to even hold their position.

Dr. P. Metals
Aug 17, 2016 - 11:14am

What's with

All this wailing and knashing of teeth?

Didn't "ol Turd say just one week ago to sell some when all looks roses and buy some when things look bad?

Today's forecast: more manipulation, lies, fraud, corruption, hypothecation, re-hypothecation, naked shorting, etc etc etc

Tomorrow's forecast: more manipulation, lies, fraud, corruption, hypothecation, re-hypothecation, naked shorting, etc etc etc

Friday's forecast: more manipulation, lies, fraud, corruption, hypothecation, re-hypothecation, naked shorting, etc etc etc

Sunday's forecast: more manipulation, lies, fraud, corruption, hypothecation, re-hypothecation, naked shorting, etc etc etc (yes, even on Sundays)

Monday's forecast: more manipulation, lies, fraud, corruption, hypothecation, re-hypothecation, naked shorting, etc etc etc

Some day it may end. Until then we always have politics to keep us entertained here ... Oh wait.

Seriously/; enjoy the day that the Lord has made and go give $50 to someone homeless today instead. Make things better not worse. Yes I'll take my own advice.

edit: or go help some Olympian finish the race, you'll feel better about things, and help in the process. Was nice to see that on Olympics

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:17am

I have been in metals for 13 years now

each new day proves I have not seen everything

our daughter is living with us for a while-sold her place looking for new place. She has doubled her portfolio this year and is in metals and beginning to understand that the BS volatility comes with the territory.

I get pissed but toss aside the emotions and then when I see a decline I trade--I buy back covered calls or go long calls expecting a rebound.

After Dudley and Lockhardt spoke out of their asses yesterday I expect a somewhat hawkish minutes. I wonder if they are finished writing the minutes.

James Bullard: 5 years ago or so he was on CNBS in June when the GDP was tepid like at 1.5% and he said he still thought 3.2% for that year was doable. It never made it. He said something similar the other day and nobody on CNBS throws it back in his face--yet when Peter Shiff is wrong the entire hosting crew jumps on him.

These folks are not accountable. period. They are consistently wrong and they are paid to do as they are told. Deal with it. They are in process of breaking the system and they do not care.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:24am

I'll tell you what, though...

IF somehow the Fed doesn't doctor the minutes to create a hawkish tone...and, instead, a realistic version of no rate hikes before an election emerges...the USDJPY is sure poised on the edge of the abyss. Yesterday's Lockhart and Dudley Jawbone Bounce has failed and the pair is back to 100.28.

This afternoon is going to be really interesting to watch. All hands on deck for the fireworks.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:26am

Draw down suck. Hope you have some dry powder.

Mining Junkie's - line " you buy technical breakdowns and sell technical breakouts". Easier said than done. Adding a small trancheof CDE here. I'll take my chances. Been there done it. Keeping the faith.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:30am

Almadex en fuego


Norte Zone assay results very positive and sending the stock skyward. I wonder how much more it might have risen had not every other PM stock in my portfolio declining today.... again.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:34am
Aug 17, 2016 - 11:35am

I'm gambling on the fed minutes

It seemed like a good time to buy a few more mining shares. I bought 100 more shares of TAHO after it dropped about 4.5% this morning. The minutes have to be doveish, right? I'm probably wrong, but what the hell. No chance to win if you don't place a bet.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:37am

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:53am

For anyone who thinks silver is going higher not lower...

There would seem to be some opportunity to be found somewhere between these two arrows:

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:54am

What is the masterpiece the cartel is wanting to paint?

"Manipulations paint perfect charts"- My little Bo Pony. The charts they want to paint in all major indexes Is one of an exuberant breakout -to dismiss of any false recovery narrative. Bull Flags flying everywhere. They have not even allowed the market sell off in any natural way this summer. Especially when you consider who is doing all the buying. So why would they want to be hawkish and destroy all there efforts before the election? These are not Markets just Manipulation. - It has never been about the economy, only cheap money. - The Gamble.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:55am

The Silver Supply Deficit is

The Silver Supply Deficit is About to Explode

Dear Reader,

A real annual physical deficit is about to erupt higher in the silver market.

In 2014, the world had a 78.6 million ounce deficit in worldwide supply vs. physical demand.

The 2015 deficit ballooned much higher, to a 130 million ounce shortfall.

According to Societe Generale, the silver supply in 2016 is likely to decrease another 9.2%!

This, of course, has everything to do with base metal mine cutbacks.

It’s important for everyone reading this to know that most silver comes from copper, zinc, and gold mines.

A silver mine is extremely rare. I’ll expand on this in Sunday’s letter, but for now, just know that the majority of “silver miners” have more silver in their name than their actual revenues coming from this precious metal.

Demand, which has been on the rise, is surging! And as we just pointed out, supply is cliff diving due to base metal mine closures and cutbacks.

The U.S. Mint is on track to sell a record amount of coins this year! believes that the demand for silver is about to surge much higher.

1. We have a confirmed bull market in 2016.

2. One-third of the central banks have a negative interest rate policy. The investment demand for silver won’t be regional – it’s going to be global!

3. The mining shares are a leading indicator, and our two top picks for this sector are up 663% (First Majestic) and 465% (Endeavor Silver).

Unfortunately, it’s very difficult to find good silver mining shares. Most of these silver miners everyone follows and that are included in silver mining indexes aren’t real silver shares, in my opinion. They simply have the word silver in them.

For physical silver, I’ve purchased from and

I strongly suggest anyone looking for metal storage out of country to contact Miles Franklin, as they have one of the best programs on the market, through Brinks Security.

In my opinion, if you’re going to store it, it’s important you keep your metal out of bank safe deposit boxes, because banks are heavily regulated by the government and are not to be trusted.

I personally prefer private businesses whose reputation is world-class in security, and who are also out of easy access to the U.S. Government.

We will have a new silver stock suggestion for you very soon, so be ready, because you will not want to miss out on this one – it’s going to be a core stock for our portfolio.

Best Regards,

Daniel Ameduri

Keith matt_
Aug 17, 2016 - 11:59am

I think it is easier to

I think it is easier to gamble on the meeting than the minutes. The minutes are just talk.

The "market" seems to be pricing in hawkish minutes. In the past if the minutes are hawkish the miners and metals fall until there is new "news."

Turd mentioned the rate hike in December. If memory serves that rate hike initially crushed gold. The rally started when the Fed started yapping about not doing 4 hikes this year.

I think if the minutes are hawkish today we will pull back until the September meeting or some other "news" event.

Unfortunately, I am all in so I wont be able to add much on this pullback. I meant to sell some JNUG at 310 so I could buy it back at 270 but I tried too hard to time it right and missed it entirely.

Aug 17, 2016 - 11:59am

Craig - some credit due


On August 11th, the very day that our current miners decline began, YOU SAID:

`` it's difficult to imagine a scenario where silver can extend to $22 in the face of Bank option sweet-spot manipulation AND Spec contract rollover. So, if silver doesn't get a move on pretty quick here, we're going to be looking at September before the next rally extension gets going.``

At the time, silver was trading right around $20.

Looks pretty prescient to me at this point.

Aug 17, 2016 - 12:08pm
Aug 17, 2016 - 12:14pm

Since English is my second language...I googled "GOON"

"A bully or thug, especially one hired to terrorize or do away with opposition".

Fred Hayek
Aug 17, 2016 - 12:22pm

There's a danger

There's a danger to them pretending that what was actually said indicates a likely rate increase in September. No one believes they will raise rates that close to the election. If they put out minutes implying or directly suggesting that then they chip away at their already meager credibility.

Aug 17, 2016 - 12:24pm

dec rate hike

adding to the Feds credibility (sarc) the 10 year was 2.3% just before the rate hike and is now down around 1.55%.

I thought it was supposed to be the other way around. I wonder if the Fed is thinking about that disconnect when they talk up rate hike--they could make a rate hike stick by also draining reserves out of the system, but that would force target to further guide down, along with the others.

This time is different.

Aug 17, 2016 - 12:38pm

Remember The Big Short

what Michael burry discovered. His swaps only went up in price when it was in the interest of the big Banks for them to do so. Also remember what Jim Sinclair has always said the ones making the big bucks in the gold market won't be the Goldbergs but the big Banks.

Angry Chef
Aug 17, 2016 - 12:44pm
Island Teal
Aug 17, 2016 - 12:44pm

2 PM approaches

Where do you place the bet ?

Ideas ??

Aug 17, 2016 - 12:52pm


"According to Societe Generale, the silver supply in 2016 is likely to decrease another 9.2%! "

The only thing I see decreasing right now is my new bought miners GDX and their now down 5.75% since I bought them.

Why O! Why do I listen to you and not my insides? I could have bought a few oz's of Physical Silver. Here that SS you can come and kick me in the ass now and get me back on the straight and narrow. Keep Stacking

Dr. P. Metals Island Teal
Aug 17, 2016 - 12:57pm


yup. I'm off to the gym again, sounds like the best idea. Will donate to goodwill along the way. It's amazing to watch nearly everyone in the gym literally stop whatever they are doing when Bolt was on...amazing stuff to watch.


Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events Week of 5/13

TWELVE Goon speeches through the week
5/14 8:30 ET Import Price Index
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State Manu. Idx.
5/15 9:15 ET Cap. Ute. and Ind. Prod.
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
5/16 10:00 ET Housing Starts and Philly Fed
5/17 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/6

5/9 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/9 8:30 ET Producer Price Index (PPI)
5/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
5/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Key Economic Events Week of 4/29

4/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc, Cons Spend, Core Infl
4/30 8:30 ET Employment Costs
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/1 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISM Manu PMIs
5/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
5/1 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
5/1 2:30 ET CGP presser
5/2 8:30 ET Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
5/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/3 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/3 9:45 & 10:00 ET Markit and ISMServices PMIs