Evidence-Based Policy

A funny coincidence occurred recently—yet another week when the Fed is hinting, signaling, screaming (but probably lying) that they will raise interest rates. A colleague asked me if I would review an article she has written for an encyclopedia on research methods. Her article explains “Evidence-Bassed Policy” and discusses how political and community leaders use this method to make wiser decisions, to solve problems and plan for the future. Actually, I don’t think that coincidences are usually coincidences, just like the “sometimes” thing with cigars and Freudian obsessions. So I’d like to muse about the FED’s decision-making methods here in this short essay, and contrast them with the theory behind their rationale.

My esteemed statistician colleague wrote:

Evidence-based policy emerges from a comprehensive, non-partisan investigative process of evaluating and prioritizing the relevant empirical data to support claims regarding the best course of action to solve a societal problem.*

That actually makes a lot of sense. In fact, I think I actually use a form of this when I look at stock charts, draw trendlines and use Fibonacci levels to make stock decisions. I even use this in my spreadsheets for my personal budget each month. But  as I look at he ideal behind this concept, then examine the definition, and and consider the FED’s public statements , I smell something utterly rotten.

But is this how the FED determines public policy? Note the key terms in this definition, and then consider

  • Comprehensive: No—their primary data is provided by a couple of key government agencies like the BLS who use flawed or opaque methodologies to derive their results, then must revise each month as actual data is added to the mix. While the FED employs its own team of finance staticians, these folks are never cited in their bi-monthly minutes or by their jawboning governors.
  • Non-partisan: No—Eployees of said government data agencies appointed by and beholden to the current administration.
  • Investigative process: Not really—they investigate a limited range of economic activity with flawed methods.
  • Evaluating: No—not when the FED governors who do this “evaluation” regularly use terms ilke “believe and metaphors like “headwinds” Just a few days ago, Kaplan, from the Dallas FED stated, “We still believe the consumer will be strong in 2016”.
  • Priortizing: Not really—The jobs reports seem to be the sole data point they rely on.
  • Relevant empirical data: No—data not empirically derived with birth-death jobs model.
  • Support claims: Perhaps the flawed data support claims… Hmmm… They have to have a scapegoat standing by somewhere.
  • Best course of action: Are you kidding—QE, Operation Twist, ZIRP, NIRP, and helicopter money.
  • Solve societal problem: Well, according  to Obama, all is solved, the economy is strong, and we should keep the Democrats in power.

The Fed claims that they use Evidence-Based Policy to guide their handling of the economy. They make decisions on whether or not to raise or lower interest rates based on “the data” on the economy—quarterly GDP, Jobless claims, job additions, etc.  But the gorilla in the corner is the data.  We have talked at great length about the validity of this data, noting that the unemployment rate is far higher than officially claimed, recognizing that the inflation rates have been typically higher. The “birth-death model” for job growth is an indirect, and flawed, method, of counting the number of jobs. Then the  News media dutifully reports all these weeky and monthly “estimated” statistics that are continually revised by the BLS while other government entities keep the precise numbers (not estimates) tucked away somewhere.

The DJIA number is the primary data point that Americans use to gage the health of the economy. When it crashes, they look at their IRA portfolio bottom line and get nervous. So do the politicians. And they act fast. Since 2008 they have kept stock indexes moving higher, intervening with the PPT every time investors head for the exits, coaxing them back in with the fear of missing out. But you will never hear the FED or anyone say "Stocks are tanking, bonds are in the toilet, so we better do something to keep these sheep from getting restless and heading to the streets to protest." Seems that this is one of the only data streams the FED pays attention to... and of course whatever Kuroda says over at the BOJ.

What gets my goat is that the Internal revenue service keeps accurate, detailed and up-to-date records of how much money every citizen is paid each month (jobs). For that matter, the social security administration also keeps precise records on who has an employer paying benefits on their behalf. The city governments know to the penny how many new goods were sold in their locales every quarter. But does anyone in the government offices aks these sources for their data—data that is not statistically derived, but simply counted up as the receipts roll in? Oh, that would be too easy for these federal agencies to do. They gotta make it complicated to justify their budget and high-salaried directors.

Ring, ring.

"Hey Koskinen. Janet here.  We have a meting tomorrow to decide whether or not to raise rates. I need to know how many people in this country have a job."    (pause)   "What? Why not?"   (pause)    "You mean that you know to the penny how much tax was collected from every paycheck, but you didn’t program your computer to count the number of paychecks?"   (pause)    "Yes, I understand. Things are tight. But where did Ben get his data?"   (short pause)    "OK. I’ll call Erika Groshen over at the BLS. She’s got a 632 million budget to estimate that number."

So they have at their disposal accurate data for their evidence based policy from tax records, yet they choose to use the BLS data which is derived with complicated mathematical models by statistical experts. And they they have to revise it every month. And THIS is the “evidence” used by the fed to determine what they will do—the most powerful organization on earth uses flawed data on which flawed, fallacious, falsified, and simply F’ed up “evidence” is used to base their decisions with this “evidence-based policy that is the buzzword of governmental leaders at every level.

Incredible! We have the blind leading the blind. We fell into a ditch in 2008 and have never gotten out.

Can the Fed really be that incompetent?

I don’t think so! I think they know precisely what they are doing and can explain it to anyone. The problem is that we would not like their explanation, if they were truthful. and they want the world to think we are out of the ditch already. NIRP says otherwise.

So, no. The FED  is not incompetent. But they are not leaders. They are employees who dutifully and diligently follow instructions of their superiors. And all this time they claim they are using “evidenced-based policy” to make their decisions. But in reality, they follow orders of leaders who fear the masses and have to keep the bread and circuses flowing—retirement accounts, green stock indexes, and the constant stream of entertainment.

I am feeling cynical again and should stop writing.

*Ah Yes, you are looking to check on my esteemed colleague and a citation ... I’ll withhold her name here since she may not want to be associated with a goldbug like me and probably doesn't want her name soiled by such a “radical” blog. Besides, the article is still “in press.” Once it is published, she is fair game.

32 Comments

Rakka's picture

4th in Japan for M :)

Kombawa :)

Mr. Fix's picture

My my, aren't we up early today?

LOL–evidence-based policy?

Here's my policy:

If the government said it, it's bullshit.

It's really that simple.

How can anybody still think that the Fed is incompetent?

The only applicable term for the Fed, is  PURE EVIL!!!

When it comes to governmental agencies, I don't think it's possible to be too cynical.

If you'd like to try to figure out what their endgame is, just come up with the most demonically inspired scenario possible, and you will be perilously close to the truth.

They are proactively working a plan designed to bankrupt  and enslaved planet earth. They are also wildly successful.

Of course, they can't just come out and state their intentions, so just like our government, they take great liberties with the truth.

Don't participate in their system,

And keep stacking! wink

Good morning Turdville, and have a great day. 

2nd! cheeky

nuggety's picture

The Greatest Debt Doping Scandal in History

Great thought piece Dr. Jerome, I enjoyed the part about Koskinen not counting the number of paychecks.

I had just read another article which draws on the similarities of corruption in the Olympics with the monetary system, central banks and 'financial jobs' for the politically connected.

A quote:

"While we may lampoon the so-called economic stewards as clueless, in my opinion, their decisions are based on corruption and greed."

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/greatest-doping-scandal-history/2016/08/03/

The BS is getting so deep these days I think we shall need snorkels soon...... I can't breathe.

lakedweller2's picture

Fed is a Conduit

They appear to have a Governmental sanction of authority to enable the siphoning of tax payer funds to the private illegitimate Central Banking System, while maintaining secrecy and unregulated authority to hijack otherwise public funds through the appearance of academic expertise and the use of vague and undefinable words of nebulous meaning.

Bottomline:  Thieves

LostMind's picture

Pleading the Fifth

AGAIN... What am I Hillary!angry

Great article Dr. J.

May I add a little evidence to your thoughts.

The State, through their Department of Revenue, tracks all things tax related. The DOR is used against "deadbeat" dads on a regular basis, they KNOW where the money is. Now, this doesn't track the "shadow" revenue, but it would set the "bottom" of any employee related data you wanted to review.

You are right; Businesses have to file quarterly wage info with the state and with the Feds... Thus, they have ALL the info they need.

You have proven through your post that the FED is full of shit! Lies, thieves, manipulators, and ultimately our ruin...

Turd Ferguson's picture

Thanks, Doc.

MODERATOR

Great stuff!

AIJ's picture

Remember this story?

Ukrainian gold reserves loaded on an unidentified transport aircraft in Kiev’s Borispol airport and flown to Uncle Sam’s vault

https://newswire-24.com/2014/03/07/4827/

So what can we conclude from this story? 

Gold was stolen; therefore, gold was hacked; therefore, don't buy gold......

Marchas45's picture

LMAO

Good one DR.J By the way you missed the part about a lot of the IRS employees are behind on their taxes. lol Keep Stacking

Turd Ferguson's picture

Small rally in USDJPY

MODERATOR

Helping The Banks to walk gold backward on Comex today.

Have a nice day, everyone!

Joseph Warren's picture

IMO it starts at the Beginning

It starts with the how and why of how something came to be. Any investigation of the origins of the fed point to the fact that it was conceived in secret by a small group of bankers and is a cartel.  All their actions come from out of this. All the rest is b.s. spin & obfuscation.  Nothing but an irrelevant diversion. They wanted the ability to create 'credit' out thin air and charge interest on it. (Such scams are illegal if committed by those in any other business.)  When the scheme inevitably caught up with them, they wanted to force the American people to cover their losses.

The same approach can be applied toward 'education' in this country and medicine. Find out who established the current structure and you'll see beyond the rhetoric. (Many of the same parties were involved in the creation of the framework for central banking, education, and medicine.)

matt_'s picture

US Congresswoman earns $3.5 million day trading options

This type of crap infuriates me:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-02/something-strange-emerges-when-looking-congresswomans-daytrading-records

"To summarize: a former East LA psychology professor (with an annual pension) started off her Congressional career with virtually nothing in the bank, and over the next 5 years, built up a net worth of over $3 million. We are curious how: it wasn't with the modest salary that members of the house collect; it wasn't from outside activities, it wasn't from her husband.

Which leaves just one possibility: her phenomenal daytrading skills, which are made even more phenomenal since her trades are exempt from regulatory oversight."

rxman's picture

HUI Gap

Is just overhead. 280 to 300.

rxman

Joseph Warren's picture

Re: Congresswoman makes $3M daytrading

"All animals are equal. But some animals are more equal than others." - 

Animal Farm by George Orwell

tyberious's picture

modest salary

Modest salary that members of the house collect!!

Try 4 times average

Salaries

Salaries

Executive, Legislative, and Judicial

January 2015

Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Officers

114/1

President……………………………………...

$400,000

Vice President………………………………..

$230,700

Speaker of the House………………………...

$223,500

House Majority & Minority Leaders………...

$193,400

House/Senate Members & Delegates………..

$174,000

Chief Justice, Supreme Court………………..

$258,100

Associate Justices, Supreme Court…………..

$246,800

tyberious's picture

August 3, 2016 Spoleto,

August 3, 2016

Spoleto, Italy

It was only a matter of time.

In the wake of multiple terror attacks, the European Commission is moving towards creating a mandatory, centralized database of Bitcoin ownership.

Of course, their official reason is that Bitcoin is being used to finance terrorism.

So for everyone’s safety and security they need even more authority to spy on people’s finances.

But the reality is that these governments have hated Bitcoin since the beginning.

They don’t like the idea of a decentralized currency that they can’t control.

In the conventional financial system, governments have the power to regulate the banks and seize any account they want.

They can use their gun-toting police agencies to confiscate citizen’s physical cash… and given the alarming rise of Civil Asset Forfeiture in the Land of the Free, it’s clear they’re not exactly shy about stealing people’s money.

But they can’t do any of that with Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is a decentralized, distributed system. It’s impossible for anyone, or any government, to control it.

So the more people use Bitcoin, the more governments lose control.

History shows us, for example, that bankrupt governments almost invariably resort to capital controls-- heinous obstacles that trap people’s savings inside a decaying financial system.

We’re already seeing this across the European continent.

Many banks in Europe have restrictions on how much money you can withdraw from your own savings account.

There’s also been rapid progress towards banning physical cash altogether.

But Bitcoin is a way for people to escape these capital controls... which is why it’s such a nightmare for bankrupt governments.

You’d think that intelligent governments would embrace Bitcoin.

You’d think that, rather than fight an obvious technological trend, they would encourage the banks and monetary policymakers to integrate Bitcoin’s concepts into the financial system in order to become more competitive and innovative.

But that’s not what happens.

Bankrupt governments have a permanent scarcity mentality.

Once they enter desperation mode, their only solution is more government, more regulation, more spying, and more control.

It’s literally the exact opposite of what they should be doing.

Now, in response to all of these terrorist attacks, the bureaucrats finally have an excuse to expand their control.

So rather than getting on board with the technology and joining the 21st century, they’re going to expend resources creating a complicated regulatory framework in an attempt to neutralize the Bitcoin threat.

Here’s the good news: they’re going to fail. The technology available to us is simply too powerful.

Think about it: no matter what governments do, there’s almost always a way to defeat them thanks to modern technology.

If they try to ban the sale of firearms, we now have the ability to 3D print them.

If they engage in illegal surveillance of our emails (which they are), we have FREE, open-source encryption technology available to thwart their efforts.

If they debase their currency into oblivion and impose capital controls (which they are), we can use Bitcoin and move money into the blockchain.

And if they try to eliminate those tools, they’ll fail miserably.

Remember that a government’s power is based exclusively on threats of violence, which exist solely in the physical world.

But Bitcoin exists in the digital world where their threats of violence are useless.

There is no centralized nexus of control for Bitcoin. No individual or organization controls it. Therefore governments have no one to threaten.

That’s why they’ll fail. Our modern technology favors the individual. It favors freedom. It favors those who understand major trends and adapt to change.

Until tomorrow, 

iman-eemlsfgeykvdtptlusjvkrvuyrdpoazh-v2

Simon Black

Founder, SovereignMan.com

J Siefert's picture

Good article Dr.J

Re.: My esteemed statistician colleague wrote:

Evidence-based policy is policy emerges from a comprehensive, non-partisan investigative process of evaluating and prioritizing the relevant empirical data to support claims regarding the best course of action to solve a societal problem.*

BTW: I know where she sourced her way of thinking; from an old Greek free-thinker called Aristotle !!

tyberious's picture

Shunning the U.S.

Shunning the U.S. dollar

Because of the Bretton Woods agreement, the world became flooded with U.S. dollars. This enormous issuance created a lot of stability. No actions outside of the Federal Reserve could create much volatility. The higher the volatility of a currency, the more interest a loan originator would demand. A company could issues dollar-denominated bonds at a lower interest rate because of this stability. BANAMEX, for instance, could sell bonds paying 12% in pesos OR 4% in dollars.
"By borrowing dollars at several percentage points below the prevailing interest rate in their domestic currency, CEOs have pepped up profits in the short term."
"Dollar borrowing is everywhere, but the biggest growth has been in emerging markets. Between 2009 and 2014 the dollar-denominated debts of the developing world, in the form of both bank loans and bonds, more than doubled, from around $2 trillion to some $4.5 trillion, according to the Bank for International Settlements"
"But finance rarely offers a free lunch. The worry is that tumbling energy prices mean firms like Gazprom and Petrobras now have much lower dollar income than expected when they took on debts. Others, such as Lodha, Eskom and Yasar, have few dollar earnings. Taking on debt just before a shift in exchange rates can be painful. In 2010 a Turkish firm borrowing $10m via a ten-year bond with a 5% coupon could expect to pay 22.5m lira ($15m) over the life of the bond. But the lira is down 43% against the dollar since then (see chart 2); the payments are now over 39m lira."
Feeling green | The Economist

So, even though the U.S. dollar has great stability, the energy markets can bring great instability to everybody. The resource currencies like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia are heavily affected by the drop in oil prices. It is just below $ 40 and expected to cause further bankruptcies in oil exporters.

The problems start when there is a shortage of dollars to service dollar-denominated debt. In the 2008 crash, the FED sent a LOT of dollars to Europe to stave of defaults;
"Page 131 – The total lending for the Fed’s “broad-based emergency programs” was $16,115,000,000,000. That’s right, more than $16 trillion. The four largest recipients, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, received more than a trillion dollars each. The 5th largest recipient was Barclays PLC. The 8th was the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, PLC. The 9th was Deutsche Bank AG. The 10th was UBS AG. These four institutions each got between a quarter of a trillion and a trillion dollars. None of them is an American bank."
https://johnhively.wordpress.com/201...litical-power/

Only the FED can create dollars to service dollar-denominated debt if the market doesn't have them. For many States, this is just TOO MUCH foreign control. If the value of a currency changes after you take out a loan, you have a big problem repaying it. One solution is a "currency swap". 2 States swap currency at an agreed upon rate. Each holds the other States currency. It doesn't really cost anything. When it comes time to pay a bill, you just use your stash of foreign currency.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intern...f_the_renminbi

China has done currency swaps with dozens of States. They bypass the dollar AND they avoid volatility in exchange rates. As new contracts are written in local currencies, dollar contracts are shunned. This gives the FED far less power when it comes to demand for dollars.

With a swap arrangement, the treasury just ticks off an amount from the total held and that is that. It isn't financed through a bank. The bigger a deal is, the less likely that a bank will be involved.
The banks seriously hate swaps AND barter BUT;
"Iran, Turkey, India, and China have suggested using the barter system in the food industry with Russia to avoid transactions in dollars,"
Just imagine, a total population of over 2.3 billion and they want to barter.

As trade shuns the dollar, States don't need to hold dollar bonds to pay for oil and other imports. They don't roll-over their treasury holdings. The FED is buying all new issuance but, they don't advertise it. The U.S. treasury has come up a bit short this quarter and they need a bit more spare change; US Treasury to Borrow More Funds Than Anticipated
Our trade deficit is $ 1.5 billion every day and I expect us to get cut off at some point. Between swaps and barter, there is far less use of the dollar. If nobody wants dollars, they will demand gold for their exports.

Blythesshrink's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/news

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-03/priebus-furious-after-disastrous-48-hours-trump-said-plot-intervention

As an onlooker from afar, it feels like Trump is getting the same treatment that the Brexit campaign got in the UK MSM. You'll probably get a Clinton supporter murdered shortly by someone shouting, 'Vote Trump!'

Markedtofuture's picture

Chemtrails are Greatest Threat to Life on Earth-Dane Wigington

Last month, CIA Director John Brennan admitted Chemtrails, or as he put it, “Stratospheric Aerosol Injection,” is established geoengineering science used to fight global warming. Geoengineering researcher Dane Wigington says if the government is admitting it, the negative effects of spraying are too big to hide much longer. Wigington explains “When CIA Director Brennan has to address it publicly, clearly it’s getting very difficult for them to hide this elephant in the room and the damage it has done, not only to the environment, but to us. It is irreparable already, and they know the liability already. They know this. They also know the amount of liability that has been created. That’s why they have been so desperate to hide this. To put this into the nutshell, the amount of destruction these programs have caused environmentally, it’s contaminated the entire web of life. This is, mathematically speaking, the greatest and most immediate threat to the web of life on earth, including human health. It is greater than any other threat short of nuclear cataclysm. That’s a mathematical fact.”

Continued....

http://usawatchdog.com/chemtrails-are-greatest-threat-to-life-on-earth-dane-wigington/

Fred Smith 2's picture

"Evidence-based anything" should be banned ?!?

I very much enjoyed the lead article.

Medicine started using the phrase "evidence-based" in the 1990's.  It has caused huge confusion in many specialties.  Since when has medicine not been based on "evidence" ? The trouble is they were not sure what "evidence" was ? Some thought it was the product of randomised controlled trials; others thought it was they read on TFM; others thought it was what they read in a textbook !  Then some nutcase - first deported, and now departed - said we should "rank" evidence according to the manner it was brought into being ?!? RCT's were to be worth more than cohort studies which were to be worth more than observational studies which were worth more than textbooks !?!  So they started "ranking" and "grading" evidence - NUTS or what - they are still doing it and it is causing chaos in many specialties and journals.  It has made a mockery of contemporary medicine.

Evidence stands or falls on its own merits because it is "information tending to establish a fact" ? Because this definition includes a present participle ("tending") it suggests that you need something else to get to a fact (defined as "a reliable piece of information").  That something else is J******T !  Yes - "judgment" - our ability to make sense of evidence and facts in the context of the subject or question before us ?  Well, that makes it really easy - the FED shows no signs of independent "judgment" whereas what we find on TFM - particularly from our leader - is every sign of "independent judgement" ???

I am sorry this is so long. For a brief version see http://www.bmj.com/content/352/bmj.i867/rr-4 

(With apologies to CA lawyer and any other lawyers on the site !)

Fred Smith 2's picture

A short contribution to the health and well-being of the communi

Now that I have learned to use the buttons on the site, this is a short contribution to health and well-being of all.  It is being considered by serious peer-reviewed journals - it may be correct but it is certainly not "evidence-based" ? If you read nothing else then please consider WA Lane's article written in 1924 in the link below !?!

"In 1909, WA Lane demonstrated twenty physical signs of “chronic intestinal stasis” in the abdomen including pericaecal and sigmoid adhesions, and, associated them with a list of Western diseases.1  DP Burkitt (1973) observed reduced stool weights and prolonged oro-anal transit times in Europeans compared to Africans with his second list of Western diseases.  MJ Quinn (2014) recorded visceral denervation and reinnervation in many gynaecological conditions, and, at a wide range of extra-pelvic sites in a third, list of Western diseases.  Three sets of observations, three lists of Western diseases in three different generations in the past century ? Is there any basis to the proposition that some aspect of “constipation”  causes many other Western diseases ?

In 1993, KW Heaton discovered that only 1% of an East Bristol population achieved successful defaecation once per week; 0.1% once per month, whilst 20-30% of bowel movements required physical efforts to start or finish the procedure !5  “Constipation” is an imprecise and often misunderstood term – it may mean “small”, “hard”, “infrequent”, “incomplete evacuation” or “persistent physical efforts during defaecation”(PPEDD).  In a pathophysiological context, PPEDD “stretches” branches of autonomic nerves, from their paramedian, sympathetic origins at T1-L2, causing them to fray, break, and, regenerate.  Their injury results in diverse and varying, pathological consequences around the body including  hyperplasia and hypoplasia, visceral dysfunction, tubal dysmotility, opportunist infection, thrombosis, ischaemia, and pain.5   Disrupting the autonomic nervous system may also be a source of non-specific symptoms such as malaise, lethargy, headache, lightheadedness, palpitations, etc.

In 1861, Thomas Crapper set up in business as a sanitary engineer in Chelsea.  Since then we have adopted the habit of sitting (rather than squatting) on his porcelain products and their derivatives, to evacuate our bowels.  It is not easy to generate a valsalva manoevre in the squatting position; it is all too easy to do so in the sitting position.  Injuries from stretching autonomic nerves result in diverse and varying clinical presentations depending on the size and shape of their owner, and, their pattern of PPEDD.3  Other sources of injury to autonomic nerves include difficult first labours, drugs and surgical procedures, though there may be others ?

Our present pandemic of Western diseases has emerged over the past century from our refined diets, poor bowel habits and sedentary lifestyles.

References

(1)           Lane WA.
An Address on CHRONIC INTESTINAL STASIS
Br Med J. 1909 Jun 12;1(2528):1408-11.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2303725/pdf/brmedj05798-0004.pdf   

Fred Smith 2's picture

A short contribution to health and well-being !

This is a short contribution to health and well-being of all.  It may be correct but it is certainly not "evidence-based" ? If you read nothing else then please consider WA Lane's article written in 1924 in the link below !?!

"In 1909, WA Lane demonstrated twenty physical signs of “chronic intestinal stasis” in the abdomen including pericaecal and sigmoid adhesions, and, associated them with a list of Western diseases.1  DP Burkitt (1973) observed reduced stool weights and prolonged oro-anal transit times in Europeans compared to Africans with his second list of Western diseases.  MJ Quinn (2014) recorded visceral denervation and reinnervation in many gynaecological conditions, and, at a wide range of extra-pelvic sites in a third, list of Western diseases.  Three sets of observations, three lists of Western diseases in three different generations in the past century ? Is there any basis to the proposition that some aspect of “constipation”  causes many other Western diseases ?

In 1993, KW Heaton discovered that only 1% of an East Bristol population achieved successful defaecation once per week; 0.1% once per month, whilst 20-30% of bowel movements required physical efforts to start or finish the procedure !5  “Constipation” is an imprecise and often misunderstood term – it may mean “small”, “hard”, “infrequent”, “incomplete evacuation” or “persistent physical efforts during defaecation”(PPEDD).  In a pathophysiological context, PPEDD “stretches” branches of autonomic nerves, from their paramedian, sympathetic origins at T1-L2, causing them to fray, break, and, regenerate.  Their injury results in diverse and varying, pathological consequences around the body including  hyperplasia and hypoplasia, visceral dysfunction, tubal dysmotility, opportunist infection, thrombosis, ischaemia, and pain.5   Disrupting the autonomic nervous system may also be a source of non-specific symptoms such as malaise, lethargy, headache, lightheadedness, palpitations, etc.

In 1861, Thomas Crapper set up in business as a sanitary engineer in Chelsea.  Since then we have adopted the habit of sitting (rather than squatting) on his porcelain products and their derivatives, to evacuate our bowels.  It is not easy to generate a valsalva manoevre in the squatting position; it is all too easy to do so in the sitting position.  Injuries from stretching autonomic nerves result in diverse and varying clinical presentations depending on the size and shape of their owner, and, their pattern of PPEDD.3  Other sources of injury to autonomic nerves include difficult first labours, drugs and surgical procedures, though there may be others ?

Our present pandemic of Western diseases has emerged over the past century from our refined diets, poor bowel habits and sedentary lifestyles.

References

(1)           Lane WA.
An Address on CHRONIC INTESTINAL STASIS
Br Med J. 1909 Jun 12;1(2528):1408-11.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2303725/pdf/brmedj05798-0004.pdf   

matt_'s picture

Re: modest salary

A US congressional house member makes $174,000 a year.  It is high relative to the average wage in the US, but it isn't a lot of money.  Try turning that $174,000 salary into $3 million in 5 years.  That is a nearly impossible feat when starting from zero net worth.  Becoming fabulously wealthy on $174,000 a year is only made possible through means that are illegal for everyone who is not a US senator or representative.

California Lawyer's picture

I LOVE Evidence

This was my favorite course of all in law school.  It encapsulates everything there is to being a lawyer. 

"Evidence" as a concept takes into account the frailties of being a human being, coupled with the need for objective, that is, tamper-proof, persuasive "facts."  It deals with psychology, memory, the whole gamut.  

Studies have shown repeatedly, and convincingly, that human beings cannot be trusted to preserve truth from memory.  There are too many filters, biases, what not, such that even though someone actually saw something, the perception of that event passes through filters and biases and what comes out in the end is subject to differing degrees of believability.

That is why juries traditionally put far more weight in actual writings, made contemporaneously at the time of the act, condition or event, as writings, unless forged, are apt to be more reliable than human memories.

But, that leads us to the conundrum that is the government "official" narrative.

Mr. Fix has hit it dead on.  He is correct.

Anything emanating from anything or anyone "official" is to be distrusted, as the product of bias, corruption, ineptness, or evil.  Period.

As for the "evidence" paradigm of supporting a conclusion, what I learned long ago still applies.

When presented with a conclusion, reason backwards and analyze EVERY SINGLE ASSUMPTION.  Attack the assumptions, and premises upon which the conclusion(s) is(are) based, and universally, there will be weakness to attack.  No question.

Don't just accept the conclusion.  To do that marks one indelibly as a sheeple.

No.

Question everything, and isolate the assumptions and premises, then ask whether the conclusion is sound if the assumptions or premises are incorrect (or outright made up, like the BLSBS numbers).

THEN, ask why, like the brilliant Dr. J points out, the conclusions are based on such flimsy and fake assumptions when better (and accurate) date IS available?

Then, run that through a syllogism: (1) if the assumptions are fake, (2) but actual, real data exists, then (3) why is the conclusion based on the fake assumptions?  Does that not prove that the conclusion is faulty simply because the underlying assumptions are based on fake data?  

Anyhow, great article, as always, Dr. J!

Thank you a TON for this.

Marcrward's picture

Re: modest Salary

matt_

or by investing in junior mining stocks and physical silver right now?

Marcrward's picture

Cal Lawyer

"Question everything, and isolate the assumptions and premises, then ask whether the conclusion is sound if the assumptions or premises are incorrect"

I concur, "all models are wrong, but some are useful" is a phrase I keep in mind daily.

Modern Portfolio Theory is the mathematical formula that defines the best portfolios to invest your assets in order to minimize risk and maximize return. The assumptions that have held true up until now, will be destroyed going forward.

MPT would never recommend holding physical silver due to its historical volatility (manipulated?) and lackluster annual returns.

keep stacking.

tyberious's picture

F. William Engdahl, Eric Coffin and Michael Oliver

Click Jay Taylor Media to Listen and Download

 

F. William Engdahl, Eric Coffin and Michael Oliver return as guests on this week's radio program.

Behind financial markets are unseen forces obscured from headline news. Engdhal uncovers the pro ISIS relationship the CIA has fostered over many years and addresses its role in the recently attempted coup d'état in Turkey. What actually happened in the failed coup will surprise the casual observer of the news. What does this failed coup mean in the larger geopolitical scheme between NATO on the one hand and Russia, China and India on the other?

The longer term implications are all good for gold. Michael will update us on his latest work on gold and Eric will have a couple of his top gold share picks that are also the top picks of your host.

Is the CIA Friend or Foe of ISIS? Aug 2, 2016

1. Jay introduces the sponsors and guests for the day and Michael Oliver updates us on his technical readings for gold, bonds and other significant markets. Download

2. Eric Coffin talks about recent results of companies he follows, talks about the gold markets and shares some of his top picks that are also Jay’s. Download

3. William Engdahl uncovers the pro ISIS relationship the CIA has fostered over many years and addresses its role in the recently attempted coup d’état in Turkey. Download

pabste's picture

After watching for the last

After watching for the last several days, seems like we should be selling our miners after the morning rise, and buying them back late in the day after the smash?????

We might be able to pick up MORE shares????

pabste's picture

ALERT! ALERT!

Houston, we have a problem!

AG just won't stay RED!

onesong's picture

Don't make a big deal of it...

Buy it lightly on the way up. When it hits 18, buy it all!

Syndicate contentComments for "Evidence-Based Policy"