The Wizard of Foresight: Two weeks in Turdville
I want to state right out front that the owner/proprietor of this site, Mr. Craig Hemke (the top dog, big cheese, head honcho, numero uno hombre and Grand Marquise of TFMetalsreport; Mr. Turd Ferguson, all-around precious metals raconteur) was both unaware and not consulted prior to my posting this, AND that it is totally unsolicited. Though come to think of it, if TF wants to drop my name to his buddy, Billionaire and genius investor Eric Sprott, suggesting he take me salmon fishing with him in the Klondike, well that’s his business. Ahem.
But as a part-time contributor and long-time subscriber to this site, I wanted to record for posterity the truly exceptional nature of the prognostication that has gone on here. To put it bluntly, TF has been killing it for a very, very long time now and this virtuoso performance has reached a fairly astonishing crescendo over the last six months, culminating in a frankly scary two week period July 15-30, 2016: a time that has raised the level of prognostication at this site from “Damn, I cannot believe I get this for 12 bucks a month” to “Am I quite certain a small child wasn’t sacrificed to B’aal to obtain this level of insight into the future? Am I going to burn for this?” Those who are subscribers read this and are nodding their heads in agreement, but this is being written for the public- those folks who might not know better, who may have (through accident or misfortune) fallen in with an ugly crowd that has an axe to grind or a few sheep to shear.
I am posting this so that, if you are one of those who DON’T know any better and who have seen the events of the last several weeks pass you by leaving you watching from the sidelines, unsure of how to be positioned, baffled by what is going on or why price is moving as it does, or most importantly how to position yourself to profit, well then this post is for you. Because I assure you, the people in Turdville don’t need this, we are already in our positions, we know where price is headed, and we are not in the least bit confused about what has occurred over the last two weeks. We were given a point-by-point playbook to observe and trade from, AHEAD OF TIME, by our good pal Turd Ferguson. To put it bluntly, if you missed out on this action, it isn’t your fault- you’ve just been listening to, and subscribing to, the wrong people.
Come on in. Let me give you a peek behind the miniscule paywall curtain here in Turdville, check out the narrative we have had front row seats for over the last two weeks and see how that’s played out in the real world. See if you could have made money, had you known what we’ve known. At 12 bucks per month, we think this is the best damn value there is. See for yourself:
On Monday July 18th Turd was fed up with the crappy analysis he was reading on the internet regarding the recent (short-term) downtrend in PM prices, and he posted “Getting It All Wrong” (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7744/getting-it-all-wrong) noting that in terms of short-term price moves, its all about the HFT’s and the USD/JPY controlling the short-term churn:
Look, please allow me to spell this out again in as clear of terms as possible...
The Comex price of "gold" is 99% determined by the trading whims of the HFTs. When their key inputs (the USDJPY and the bond market) tell them to buy paper gold, they buy paper gold. When their key inputs tell them to sell paper gold, they sell paper gold. When possible, the trading desks of The Bullion Banks also attempt to influence the HFTs through manipulation of short-term price and the charts.
But here is where we see TF separating himself from the crowd of so-called ‘analysts’ in the PM space, because where they are content to explain how things work, TF not only explains and educates, he considers it his duty to give you tradable information. In this case, he identified the primary pattern we would spend the rest of July watching for:
Behold the gold chart below. Here's what I want you to notice...Note that price fell in late January until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Feb16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through February. Price then fell in mid-late March until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Apr16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through April. Price then fell in mid-late May until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Jun16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through June. It's now mid-late July and what is happening to price?
On Wednesday, July 20th the podcast was called the “Sanity” podcast, because people were starting to freak out, and voices from around the internet were calling the top in gold and silver. It was an interesting time… that high-flyer JNUG, junior miner 3x leveraged ETF which has so far this year been portfolio Viagra was suddenly looking worrisome. A drop from 300$ plus per share to 197$ will do that. Gold had topped at 1373, then proceed to shed a hefty 60 bucks fairly quickly to a heart-stopping 1313$.
Take a look at this chart, and knowing that MACD had turned decidedly down, that “analysts” around the internet were calling for lower prices, ask yourself what the people YOU follow were saying. Look up what they were saying at this point in the chart, Wednesday, July 20th:
Turd was singing a very different tune in his “Sanity” podcast: “ I can assure you, there will be a precipitous drop in gold open interest, and the COT will be just fine”. Calm yourselves, TF admonished, as he put this pullback in price into context. First, he noted that the Cartel used the old tried and true tactic from the old Blythe Masters days of waiting until the thinly traded hours on the globex to drive price (cheaply) lower. This sucked an artificially high amount of dollars out of both gold and silver, and the drops looked worse than they really were! Silver was pushed down as low as 19.31 in the day, but here was old Turd in the podcast YELLING “Don’t sweat the tick by tick, this is just small stuff!” Even though the HUI was down 6% that day, even though other “analysts” were talking about momentum indicators, MACD, and major downside, Turd spent most of this podcast telling folks not to panic, assuring folks that price will hold, and most of all assuring nervous investors that they need to quit freaking out. “Believe it or not, nothing significant has happened… copper is holding, and the long bond is holding. This is all just arranged weakness around options expiration, and when that nonsense leaves, price will go where it MUST go.” So Turd was not fooled, and in Turdville, neither were we. PM’s were following the dollar/yen, and the long bond, and since TF had a pretty good idea where they were going, he was telling all of us to chill the hell out. It was a bracing podcast.
“Watch that dollar/yen; at 107 it is precisely at that downtrend that goes back to February. The Euro is on its death legs, negative rates are getting worse and worse, and demand for physical is getting better every day… so when the dollar yen turns around, gold will rise. Period! Again, the big picture is great, don’t sweat the small stuff!!!” He finished by telling people to (1) expect possible weakness and continued flushing of small specs into op ex in gold next week, and (2) once this is in the rearview mirror, gold will take off- this has been the pattern all year long, and it will happen again.
He made this prediction official in his post Thursday, July 21:https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7751/timeline-next-rally-gold
So how did all that work out? Well when he wrote that, the HUI looked like it had topped and was headed down, JNUG had rolled over from north of 300 to 197, and analysts across the internet were calling for an end to the PM bull market. Again, look back and see how “your” analyst call that?
The metals slid along just at TF predicted, the Fedlines, were a nothingburger just like TF predicted, Kuroda printed and the market ignored it just like TF predicted, the USD/JPY rolled over like a good doggie, and to top it all off the US GDP print came in at 1.2% instead of 2.4%... boom. No rate hikes, QE back on the table sooner rather than later, and August shaping up to be a dynamite month for PM’s just like TF said.
Op ex passed, then gold rallied like somebody lit a fire under it, the miners were bought heavily all day long, and JNUG ripped from a Tuesday low of 197 to a close of 293 on Friday. And August hasn’t even started yet!
So not to brag or anything, but if your “analyst” told you about all of this in a Friday, July 29 post –you know, after it happened… augmented with a lot of numbers and some bullshit about “here is support, here is resistance, let’s let the market tell us what happens next”, and none of it did you a damn bit of good because all of it was just written in hindsight – then I would humbly suggest you find an analyst with the skill and foresight and the balls to call the action BEFORE it happens. You know, so it might actually help you make a trade? Profit? I know, it’s a crazy notion, but hey. Strange times, my friend.
Turd is taking it easy with his family this week, perfect time for you to sign up. When he comes back next week, think about giving him a trial run.