The Wizard of Foresight: Two weeks in Turdville

109
Sun, Jul 31, 2016 - 7:59pm

I want to state right out front that the owner/proprietor of this site, Mr. Craig Hemke (the top dog, big cheese, head honcho, numero uno hombre and Grand Marquise of TFMetalsreport; Mr. Turd Ferguson, all-around precious metals raconteur) was both unaware and not consulted prior to my posting this, AND that it is totally unsolicited. Though come to think of it, if TF wants to drop my name to his buddy, Billionaire and genius investor Eric Sprott, suggesting he take me salmon fishing with him in the Klondike, well that’s his business. Ahem.

But as a part-time contributor and long-time subscriber to this site, I wanted to record for posterity the truly exceptional nature of the prognostication that has gone on here. To put it bluntly, TF has been killing it for a very, very long time now and this virtuoso performance has reached a fairly astonishing crescendo over the last six months, culminating in a frankly scary two week period July 15-30, 2016: a time that has raised the level of prognostication at this site from “Damn, I cannot believe I get this for 12 bucks a month” to “Am I quite certain a small child wasn’t sacrificed to B’aal to obtain this level of insight into the future? Am I going to burn for this?” Those who are subscribers read this and are nodding their heads in agreement, but this is being written for the public- those folks who might not know better, who may have (through accident or misfortune) fallen in with an ugly crowd that has an axe to grind or a few sheep to shear.

I am posting this so that, if you are one of those who DON’T know any better and who have seen the events of the last several weeks pass you by leaving you watching from the sidelines, unsure of how to be positioned, baffled by what is going on or why price is moving as it does, or most importantly how to position yourself to profit, well then this post is for you. Because I assure you, the people in Turdville don’t need this, we are already in our positions, we know where price is headed, and we are not in the least bit confused about what has occurred over the last two weeks. We were given a point-by-point playbook to observe and trade from, AHEAD OF TIME, by our good pal Turd Ferguson. To put it bluntly, if you missed out on this action, it isn’t your fault- you’ve just been listening to, and subscribing to, the wrong people.

Come on in. Let me give you a peek behind the miniscule paywall curtain here in Turdville, check out the narrative we have had front row seats for over the last two weeks and see how that’s played out in the real world. See if you could have made money, had you known what we’ve known. At 12 bucks per month, we think this is the best damn value there is. See for yourself:

On Monday July 18th Turd was fed up with the crappy analysis he was reading on the internet regarding the recent (short-term) downtrend in PM prices, and he posted “Getting It All Wrong” (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7744/getting-it-all-wrong) noting that in terms of short-term price moves, its all about the HFT’s and the USD/JPY controlling the short-term churn:

Look, please allow me to spell this out again in as clear of terms as possible...

The Comex price of "gold" is 99% determined by the trading whims of the HFTs. When their key inputs (the USDJPY and the bond market) tell them to buy paper gold, they buy paper gold. When their key inputs tell them to sell paper gold, they sell paper gold. When possible, the trading desks of The Bullion Banks also attempt to influence the HFTs through manipulation of short-term price and the charts.

But here is where we see TF separating himself from the crowd of so-called ‘analysts’ in the PM space, because where they are content to explain how things work, TF not only explains and educates, he considers it his duty to give you tradable information. In this case, he identified the primary pattern we would spend the rest of July watching for:

Behold the gold chart below. Here's what I want you to notice...Note that price fell in late January until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Feb16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through February. Price then fell in mid-late March until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Apr16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through April. Price then fell in mid-late May until, roughly, contract "expiration" and First Notice Day of the Jun16 contract. Price then, on balance, rose through June. It's now mid-late July and what is happening to price?

On Wednesday, July 20th the podcast was called the “Sanity” podcast, because people were starting to freak out, and voices from around the internet were calling the top in gold and silver. It was an interesting time… that high-flyer JNUG, junior miner 3x leveraged ETF which has so far this year been portfolio Viagra was suddenly looking worrisome. A drop from 300$ plus per share to 197$ will do that. Gold had topped at 1373, then proceed to shed a hefty 60 bucks fairly quickly to a heart-stopping 1313$.

Take a look at this chart, and knowing that MACD had turned decidedly down, that “analysts” around the internet were calling for lower prices, ask yourself what the people YOU follow were saying. Look up what they were saying at this point in the chart, Wednesday, July 20th:

Turd was singing a very different tune in his “Sanity” podcast: “ I can assure you, there will be a precipitous drop in gold open interest, and the COT will be just fine”. Calm yourselves, TF admonished, as he put this pullback in price into context. First, he noted that the Cartel used the old tried and true tactic from the old Blythe Masters days of waiting until the thinly traded hours on the globex to drive price (cheaply) lower. This sucked an artificially high amount of dollars out of both gold and silver, and the drops looked worse than they really were! Silver was pushed down as low as 19.31 in the day, but here was old Turd in the podcast YELLING “Don’t sweat the tick by tick, this is just small stuff!” Even though the HUI was down 6% that day, even though other “analysts” were talking about momentum indicators, MACD, and major downside, Turd spent most of this podcast telling folks not to panic, assuring folks that price will hold, and most of all assuring nervous investors that they need to quit freaking out. “Believe it or not, nothing significant has happened… copper is holding, and the long bond is holding. This is all just arranged weakness around options expiration, and when that nonsense leaves, price will go where it MUST go.” So Turd was not fooled, and in Turdville, neither were we. PM’s were following the dollar/yen, and the long bond, and since TF had a pretty good idea where they were going, he was telling all of us to chill the hell out. It was a bracing podcast.

“Watch that dollar/yen; at 107 it is precisely at that downtrend that goes back to February. The Euro is on its death legs, negative rates are getting worse and worse, and demand for physical is getting better every day… so when the dollar yen turns around, gold will rise. Period! Again, the big picture is great, don’t sweat the small stuff!!!” He finished by telling people to (1) expect possible weakness and continued flushing of small specs into op ex in gold next week, and (2) once this is in the rearview mirror, gold will take off- this has been the pattern all year long, and it will happen again.

He made this prediction official in his post Thursday, July 21:https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7751/timeline-next-rally-gold

So how did all that work out? Well when he wrote that, the HUI looked like it had topped and was headed down, JNUG had rolled over from north of 300 to 197, and analysts across the internet were calling for an end to the PM bull market. Again, look back and see how “your” analyst call that?

The metals slid along just at TF predicted, the Fedlines, were a nothingburger just like TF predicted, Kuroda printed and the market ignored it just like TF predicted, the USD/JPY rolled over like a good doggie, and to top it all off the US GDP print came in at 1.2% instead of 2.4%... boom. No rate hikes, QE back on the table sooner rather than later, and August shaping up to be a dynamite month for PM’s just like TF said.

Op ex passed, then gold rallied like somebody lit a fire under it, the miners were bought heavily all day long, and JNUG ripped from a Tuesday low of 197 to a close of 293 on Friday. And August hasn’t even started yet!

So not to brag or anything, but if your “analyst” told you about all of this in a Friday, July 29 post –you know, after it happened… augmented with a lot of numbers and some bullshit about “here is support, here is resistance, let’s let the market tell us what happens next”, and none of it did you a damn bit of good because all of it was just written in hindsight – then I would humbly suggest you find an analyst with the skill and foresight and the balls to call the action BEFORE it happens. You know, so it might actually help you make a trade? Profit? I know, it’s a crazy notion, but hey. Strange times, my friend.

Turd is taking it easy with his family this week, perfect time for you to sign up. When he comes back next week, think about giving him a trial run.

www.tfmetalsreport.com/subscribe

About the Author

  109 Comments

  Refresh
MrSteve72Fandango
Aug 4, 2016 - 1:39am

Philippines

Hey Fandango,

Not to nit pick, but it takes over 7 hours to fly to Manilla from Brisbane

OOOBuck
Aug 2, 2016 - 5:49pm

Banksters on my grill???

How do you take a filthy bit like Jamie Dimon (nicely que'd or otherwise) and then put it anywhere near your mouth.

Pfffew, sputter, sputter.

I just throw that shit out.

tyberious
Aug 2, 2016 - 12:21pm

Never before seen

Prime Rib on the grill! OMG!!

Dirt_Reynolds
Aug 2, 2016 - 11:00am

BBQ

We would feed sage to the hogs about 3 months before we slaughter. Now that adds some tang to the meat.

AlienEyes
Aug 2, 2016 - 10:56am

P4F

Did that chicken die from hanging out with ISIS or from having a beer can stuck up his arse ? Just wondering out loud.

Damn ! I'm Hungry !!!

benque
Aug 2, 2016 - 10:51am

Why no banksters

on those BBQ grills?

edit to add: We've been fattening em, and marinating em in their own lard for generations. They oughta be ready for cooking by now, fer cricke's sake.

Aug 2, 2016 - 10:33am

Alright, I may need to start a dedicated BBQ thread

A place for the carnivorous to hang out, share recipes, make those all-important "beer to meat" lineages, post pics... I'll think about it.

Whitecastle123AlienEyes
Aug 2, 2016 - 7:05am

That's funny

I'll try the pee method next cookout only when we have friends over. As far as woods go I've tried just about everything including pimento wood lump and happen to like mesquite on beef and apple on pork and chicken. To each his own I guess.

When I use any wood I only use a couple of small chunks tossed in the lump charcoal. Big difference.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

AlienEyes
Aug 2, 2016 - 6:54am

Whitecastle123 and P4F

Apple wood is for damn-yankees and only serves to keep them from cutting down all of the hickory trees in an effort to keep warm. Frankly, it's worse than mesquite. People that like apple wood have nothing else left to cook with so they cut down orchard trees. If you really like apple wood, you can save a lot of money on wood chips by peeing on the meat while it's cooking over plywood scraps and sawdust. I'm told that the taste is identical.

(no offense meant)

.

Pining, that dead pig do look good !

You need a sign next to your bar-b-q area that says, "We'll serve no swine, before its time".

Whitecastle123tyberious
Aug 2, 2016 - 6:23am

It's barbaric.

And the only way to cook. That was my deck scene yesterday with spare ribs minus the pork butt. I use the 3-2-1 method for ribs and they turn out perfect.

I have a Kamado Joe Jr. and a Grill Dome both in red. Awesome cookers.

Dont forget th Apple wood.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=crZnfwiBs5whttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c...

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Become member and subscribe to Turd's Vault

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 11/23

11/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
11/23 1:00 ET Goon Daly
11/23 3:00 ET Goon Evans
11/24 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/24 11:00 ET Goon Bullard
11/24 12:00 ET Goon Williams
11/24 12:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
11/25 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/25 10:00 ET Personal Inc and Spend
11/25 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/26 US Market holiday

Key Economic Events Week of 11/16

11/16 2:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia
11/17 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/17 8:30 ET Import Price Index
11/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/17 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/17 1:00 pm ET Chief Goon Powell
11/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/18 1:20 pm ET Goon Bullard
11/19 8:30 ET Jobless claims
11/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed

Key Economic Events Week of 11/9

11/9 1:30 pm ET Goon Mester
11/10 7:30 am ET Goon Kaplan
11/10 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
11/10 10:00 ET Goon Rosengren
11/11 Veteran's Day. Bond market closed.
11/12 8:30 ET CPI
11/12 11:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
11/12 2:00 pm ET Federal budget
11/13 7:00 ET Goon Williams
11/13 8:30 ET PPI
11/13 8:30 ET Goon Bullard
11/13 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 11/2

11/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
11/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
11/3 U.S. Election Day
11/4 November FOMC begins
11/4 8:30 ET ADP jobs report
11/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
11/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/5 8:30 ET Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
11/5 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
11/5 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell presser
11/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/26

10/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/27 10:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
10/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
10/27 10:00 ET Richmond Fed
10/28 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
10/28 8:30 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/29 8:00 ET ECB monetary policy stmt
10/29 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/30 10:00 ET UMich Consmer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Forum Discussion