Christmas in July

307
Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 9:47am

Well, we've spent the last two weeks making some bold predictions about the price of gold, the Bank of Japan and interest rates. Now here we are at the end of the month and things have unfolded almost precisely as we'd hoped. Won't it be fun to see what gifts August brings?

Time is short this morning such just a recap...

The BoJ did, indeed, "disappoint" overnight in the classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style that we expected. The only oddity of it all was the almost NON-reaction in every other market. While the USDJPY fell over two points, S&P futures hardly budged, interest rates actually rose and the metals fell. HUH??

But all of that changed when the Q2 GDP numbers were announced earlier today and the "growth" shown was enough to even make Mr. Donut blush. Once again, all of the 8-figure WallSt dbs were off by an order of magnitude after predicting +2.4-2.6% and seeing the actual number come in at just a paltry +1.2%. The final level for Q1 was also cut back to just +0.8%. SOME ROBUST ECONOMY!

This finally sparked the metals as there is now hardly anyone left on Planet Earth who thinks that The Fed will raise rates again in 2016. All of this sets the stage for a return of Spec money and open interest to gold in August and, just as we've been forecasting, new 2016 highs.

And ponder this numbers as you go through the day...How many worthless blog posts and articles did you read in July that detailed how "the metals were overbought", "topping", "due for a pullback" and "ready to make new lows"? While 3-5% drops are never fun (yet part of the process), how about some month-end perspective:

Gold June 30: $1327 Gold now: $1351 Total change: +$24 or +1.8%

Silver June 30: $18.62 Silver now: $20.29 Total change: +$1.67 or +8.9%

Hmmm. Boy, that sucks. Just brutal. Those damn metals and all the charlatans that pump them. Gimme a break...

For the rest of the day, there's no sense in getting too worked up over the tick-by-tick stuff. Just let the day play out. The week will end and, more importantly, the month will end with green candles across the board and all of this sets us up for what should/will be a very interesting month of August. We've got another BLSBS next Friday and then that's about it. No FOMC till September. The BoJ is now done for a while. All that's left should be random datapoints and announcements that only serve to enforce the current environment of even lower rates and NIRP, strong metal demand and higher prices.

If you want something to pull for, keep an eye on gold. A monthly close north of $1350 would be nice. Perhaps more important is the Long Bond where a green candle and a monthly close above 173 would be cool. It closed June at 172-11.

Lastly, here are two bits of audio you might enjoy:

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  307 Comments

JQuestnadgeskaul
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:36am

@ Fed's Williams Commented on Gold

In ALL failing empire TPTB start trying to sell Black as White and Up as Down as they collapse.

Get ready for more nonsense as this unfolds...

JQ

addley1000TF
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:46am

Difference between gold quotes

Why is there a difference in quote between Kitco and Investing.com ?

Investing is always higher several dollars and it does not have to do with delayed quotes for either ... Kitco never shows the highs Investing does.

??

ChaCha Mars
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:47am

Just heard

Link?

addley1000
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:49am

Shitco is showing spot

Shitco shows spot and Investing.com is showing live futures.

Live futures should always be higher than spot (the opposite condition is called backwardation) but, recently, I've noticed that Shitco's spot doesn't seem accurate. It's always a couple bucks low.

infometron
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:54am

@addley1000 Re: Difference between gold quotes

Shitco indicates it only quotes the bid at any given moment, which is usually lower than the ask, and at times, much so...

JQuest
Jul 29, 2016 - 11:05am

Ronan Manly: Executives keep fleeing GLD

Comment: I suspect the GLD execs are bailing as soon as they find out what a colossal fraud is being run and don't want their names connected to it.

JQ

GATA posted article:

"A remarkable but little-noticed development has occurred behind the scenes of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) over the last three years. This development concerns the very high level of executive staff turnover at World Gold Trust Services, the New York based "sponsor" of the mammoth GLD gold-backed exchange-traded fund that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange."

"For within less than three years, World Gold Trust Services has gone through FOUR chief executive officers and THREE chief financial officers. By any standard this is a huge amount of senior executives moving through the roles, and would normally ring alarm bells in the corporate governance departments of major institutional investors. Perhaps it has caused concern among institutional investors of the GLD, but if it has, it has gone unreported. ..."

https://www.gata.org/node/16628

SilverHunter1985
Jul 29, 2016 - 11:06am

Can JNUG break 300 points today

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't wait but here we go!!!!

Next stop 350

Jul 29, 2016 - 11:08am

USDJPY new lows for day

Gold and silver back to highs of day. Cool how that works, huh?

lund175
Jul 29, 2016 - 11:13am

Rye Patch Gold ?

Looks like the company halted trade until an announcement

Sounds good to me.

Thoughts?

nadgeskaul
Jul 29, 2016 - 11:14am

re: USDJPY new lows for day

And don't forget the perpetual crock that is the equity market!

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
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9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

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9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
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9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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