Christmas in July

Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 9:47am

Well, we've spent the last two weeks making some bold predictions about the price of gold, the Bank of Japan and interest rates. Now here we are at the end of the month and things have unfolded almost precisely as we'd hoped. Won't it be fun to see what gifts August brings?

Time is short this morning such just a recap...

The BoJ did, indeed, "disappoint" overnight in the classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style that we expected. The only oddity of it all was the almost NON-reaction in every other market. While the USDJPY fell over two points, S&P futures hardly budged, interest rates actually rose and the metals fell. HUH??

But all of that changed when the Q2 GDP numbers were announced earlier today and the "growth" shown was enough to even make Mr. Donut blush. Once again, all of the 8-figure WallSt dbs were off by an order of magnitude after predicting +2.4-2.6% and seeing the actual number come in at just a paltry +1.2%. The final level for Q1 was also cut back to just +0.8%. SOME ROBUST ECONOMY!

This finally sparked the metals as there is now hardly anyone left on Planet Earth who thinks that The Fed will raise rates again in 2016. All of this sets the stage for a return of Spec money and open interest to gold in August and, just as we've been forecasting, new 2016 highs.

And ponder this numbers as you go through the day...How many worthless blog posts and articles did you read in July that detailed how "the metals were overbought", "topping", "due for a pullback" and "ready to make new lows"? While 3-5% drops are never fun (yet part of the process), how about some month-end perspective:

Gold June 30: $1327 Gold now: $1351 Total change: +$24 or +1.8%

Silver June 30: $18.62 Silver now: $20.29 Total change: +$1.67 or +8.9%

Hmmm. Boy, that sucks. Just brutal. Those damn metals and all the charlatans that pump them. Gimme a break...

For the rest of the day, there's no sense in getting too worked up over the tick-by-tick stuff. Just let the day play out. The week will end and, more importantly, the month will end with green candles across the board and all of this sets us up for what should/will be a very interesting month of August. We've got another BLSBS next Friday and then that's about it. No FOMC till September. The BoJ is now done for a while. All that's left should be random datapoints and announcements that only serve to enforce the current environment of even lower rates and NIRP, strong metal demand and higher prices.

If you want something to pull for, keep an eye on gold. A monthly close north of $1350 would be nice. Perhaps more important is the Long Bond where a green candle and a monthly close above 173 would be cool. It closed June at 172-11.

Lastly, here are two bits of audio you might enjoy:

Have a great day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


imach1 · Jul 29, 2016 - 9:56am


thank you

James Crighton · Jul 29, 2016 - 9:56am

This is for SS121

where are you mate?


· Jul 29, 2016 - 9:59am

btw and fwiw

I believe that LBMA options expired earlier today....thus the overnight London Monkey action.

Let's get the PM fix behind us in a few minutes and then see how we finish up the day.

mike97 · Jul 29, 2016 - 9:59am

Merry Christmas Third!

All has unfolded as Turd predicted but where's my presents?

Dr. P. Metals · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:05am

Filling in for SS

In my best SS impersonation: 

'The charts are all fake. Fake I tell ya...". EOM

LostMind · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:11am


Just getting back to a "normal" life after about a month off of work...

Totally enjoyed catching up on Turdism's and the such :)

Just before I left for the second trip to the west coast, I doubled the amount of trading chips at the casino and waited for the crash... I was not disappointed.

Waited with baited breath as I jumped in on JNUG at $220; yes, missed the bottom at $200, but I was climbing mountains and gambling in casinos and driving where there were no cell service.

I appreciate the "insanity" of this collective group of posters. When you are fighting with time change issues and everyone else is asleep, reading post and chasing news articles and videos posted really keeps things in perspective.

As to Cal Lawyer and his "Walking Dead" post some months back, WOW did I see a ton of zombies everywhere...

Just about every UBER driver we used loves Obamacare and would be screwed without it. And, just about every UBER driver has to drive UBER to make ends meet, even those who had full time jobs... I did my best to ask as many questions as I could of all types of people to figure out what is really going on and came away with the understanding that most people truly are screwed... Money? FRN's? PM's? STUPID!! Really sad....

Different note, met several couples who are holding off on having another child because they have to much debt and/or can't afford child care. Both spouses working full time and dead tired... I offered up advice and it was taken like I had spoken some alien language. Debt is all the know... They couldn't function without it. Oh yes, they had all the bells and whistles that makes life "worth living", but they couldn't pay off debt and have more kids. More Reality, more sad...

nadgeskaul · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:16am

Fed's Williams Commented on Gold

"Hard for me to understand gold as a hedge on risk."

"U.S. doing well, we're in a good position right now."

I wonder if he saw the GDP print.

Jawboning galore until Sep meeting.

· Jul 29, 2016 - 10:27am

What a classic Fed douchebag

This is the very same Goon Williams of San Francisco who said in June that there would be 6 more rate hikes before the end of 2017, raising the FF rate to the 1.75-2.00% range.


· Jul 29, 2016 - 10:28am

BTW and fwiw

Post the PM Fix, gold back to $1353. Very nice. Again, very much looking forward to seeing what August brings.

ChaCha Mars · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:35am

Shanghai toying with paper gold?

Just heard. For real?

JQuest nadgeskaul · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:36am

@ Fed's Williams Commented on Gold

In ALL failing empire TPTB start trying to sell Black as White and Up as Down as they collapse.

Get ready for more nonsense as this unfolds...


addley1000 TF · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:46am

Difference between gold quotes

Why is there a difference in quote between Kitco and ?

Investing is always higher several dollars and it does not have to do with delayed quotes for either ... Kitco never shows the highs Investing does.


ChaCha Mars · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:47am

Just heard


addley1000 · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:49am

Shitco is showing spot

Shitco shows spot and is showing live futures. 

Live futures should always be higher than spot (the opposite condition is called backwardation) but, recently, I've noticed that Shitco's spot doesn't seem accurate. It's always a couple bucks low.

infometron · Jul 29, 2016 - 10:54am

@addley1000 Re: Difference between gold quotes

Shitco indicates it only quotes the bid at any given moment, which is usually lower than the ask, and at times, much so...

JQuest · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:05am

Ronan Manly: Executives keep fleeing GLD

Comment: I suspect the GLD execs are bailing as soon as they find out what a colossal fraud is being run and don't want their names connected to it.


GATA posted article:

"A remarkable but little-noticed development has occurred behind the scenes of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) over the last three years. This development concerns the very high level of executive staff turnover at World Gold Trust Services, the New York based "sponsor" of the mammoth GLD gold-backed exchange-traded fund that is listed on the New York Stock Exchange."

"For within less than three years, World Gold Trust Services has gone through FOUR chief executive officers and THREE chief financial officers. By any standard this is a huge amount of senior executives moving through the roles, and would normally ring alarm bells in the corporate governance departments of major institutional investors. Perhaps it has caused concern among institutional investors of the GLD, but if it has, it has gone unreported. ..."

SilverHunter1985 · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:06am

Can JNUG break 300 points today


I can't wait but here we go!!!!

Next stop 350yes

· Jul 29, 2016 - 11:08am

USDJPY new lows for day

Gold and silver back to highs of day. Cool how that works, huh?


lund175 · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:13am

Rye Patch Gold ?

Looks like the company halted trade until an announcement

Sounds good to me.


nadgeskaul · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:14am

re: USDJPY new lows for day

And don't forget the perpetual crock that is the equity market!

cavalier · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:17am

Miners Look like a Freight Train

The miners look like a freight train coming down the tracks.

They look unstoppable.

AG plus 4 %

CDE plus 4.5%

PAAS plus 4%

EXK plus 3.5%

let's end the month up big!

· Jul 29, 2016 - 11:24am


Prior to recording, I had a very fun discussion this morning with Eric re NEW GOLD and the complete, total douchebag who runs it.

Eric has a long history with this guy and can't believe he has a new job after basically destroying Barrick.

As we discussed last Friday, I'd sell that stock ASAP if I owned it...which I don't and NEVER will.

FireMedic76 · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:27am

German Notes/Bonds and DB

German 10/20/30's are racing to the bottom and lower YET, DB and EUFN are up on the day! Euro bank stocks getting supported by a CB or a large buyer? A blind reach for hope that a last minute deal comes through to prop up Italian banks or that 'everyone' passes the stress test when it is released tonight? 

Not making sense otherwise. 

Compwiz4u · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:28am


This is a follow up to my JNUG chart from July 27th where I said it had bounced off the bottom line of its pitch fork & was heading to $350+. It is in the $290s this morning & looking very strong.

matt_ · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:30am

New Gold...

I don't own the stock, but I just looked that guy up. The man who runs New Gold was also elected chairman of the World Gold Council. That says a lot right there. no

infometron · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:33am

@lund175 Re: Rye Patch Gold

My guess, and it is just a guess, is a friendly merger or acquisition.

infometron · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:35am

Re: New Gold anecdote

I played a round of golf about 2 years ago with a couple that were close friends with the CEO of New Gold. They were both so completely full of themselves, I decided there and then I wouldn't have anything to do with that company!

SilverHunter1985 · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:36am

RE: Compwiz4u

I like your work I am thinking about subscribing to your newsletter. 

canary · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:43am

FED members

Do they really hold a degree in economics?

JQuest FireMedic76 · Jul 29, 2016 - 11:44am

@German Notes/Bonds and DB

" Not making sense otherwise "

My guess is it's BRUTE FORCE buying of equities by the European CB's.

The US PPT does the same thing when they have to which is very often.


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