Christmas in July

307
Fri, Jul 29, 2016 - 9:47am

Well, we've spent the last two weeks making some bold predictions about the price of gold, the Bank of Japan and interest rates. Now here we are at the end of the month and things have unfolded almost precisely as we'd hoped. Won't it be fun to see what gifts August brings?

Time is short this morning such just a recap...

The BoJ did, indeed, "disappoint" overnight in the classic buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news style that we expected. The only oddity of it all was the almost NON-reaction in every other market. While the USDJPY fell over two points, S&P futures hardly budged, interest rates actually rose and the metals fell. HUH??

But all of that changed when the Q2 GDP numbers were announced earlier today and the "growth" shown was enough to even make Mr. Donut blush. Once again, all of the 8-figure WallSt dbs were off by an order of magnitude after predicting +2.4-2.6% and seeing the actual number come in at just a paltry +1.2%. The final level for Q1 was also cut back to just +0.8%. SOME ROBUST ECONOMY!

This finally sparked the metals as there is now hardly anyone left on Planet Earth who thinks that The Fed will raise rates again in 2016. All of this sets the stage for a return of Spec money and open interest to gold in August and, just as we've been forecasting, new 2016 highs.

And ponder this numbers as you go through the day...How many worthless blog posts and articles did you read in July that detailed how "the metals were overbought", "topping", "due for a pullback" and "ready to make new lows"? While 3-5% drops are never fun (yet part of the process), how about some month-end perspective:

Gold June 30: $1327 Gold now: $1351 Total change: +$24 or +1.8%

Silver June 30: $18.62 Silver now: $20.29 Total change: +$1.67 or +8.9%

Hmmm. Boy, that sucks. Just brutal. Those damn metals and all the charlatans that pump them. Gimme a break...

For the rest of the day, there's no sense in getting too worked up over the tick-by-tick stuff. Just let the day play out. The week will end and, more importantly, the month will end with green candles across the board and all of this sets us up for what should/will be a very interesting month of August. We've got another BLSBS next Friday and then that's about it. No FOMC till September. The BoJ is now done for a while. All that's left should be random datapoints and announcements that only serve to enforce the current environment of even lower rates and NIRP, strong metal demand and higher prices.

If you want something to pull for, keep an eye on gold. A monthly close north of $1350 would be nice. Perhaps more important is the Long Bond where a green candle and a monthly close above 173 would be cool. It closed June at 172-11.

Lastly, here are two bits of audio you might enjoy:

Have a great day!

TF

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  307 Comments

imach1
Jul 29, 2016 - 9:56am

first

thank you

James Crighton
Jul 29, 2016 - 9:56am

This is for SS121

where are you mate?

jc

Jul 29, 2016 - 9:59am

btw and fwiw

I believe that LBMA options expired earlier today....thus the overnight London Monkey action.

Let's get the PM fix behind us in a few minutes and then see how we finish up the day.

mike97
Jul 29, 2016 - 9:59am

Merry Christmas Third!

All has unfolded as Turd predicted but where's my presents?

Dr. P. Metals
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:05am

Filling in for SS

In my best SS impersonation:

'The charts are all fake. Fake I tell ya...". EOM

LostMind
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:11am

Fourth!!

Just getting back to a "normal" life after about a month off of work...

Totally enjoyed catching up on Turdism's and the such :)

Just before I left for the second trip to the west coast, I doubled the amount of trading chips at the casino and waited for the crash... I was not disappointed.

Waited with baited breath as I jumped in on JNUG at $220; yes, missed the bottom at $200, but I was climbing mountains and gambling in casinos and driving where there were no cell service.

I appreciate the "insanity" of this collective group of posters. When you are fighting with time change issues and everyone else is asleep, reading post and chasing news articles and videos posted really keeps things in perspective.

As to Cal Lawyer and his "Walking Dead" post some months back, WOW did I see a ton of zombies everywhere...

Just about every UBER driver we used loves Obamacare and would be screwed without it. And, just about every UBER driver has to drive UBER to make ends meet, even those who had full time jobs... I did my best to ask as many questions as I could of all types of people to figure out what is really going on and came away with the understanding that most people truly are screwed... Money? FRN's? PM's? STUPID!! Really sad....

Different note, met several couples who are holding off on having another child because they have to much debt and/or can't afford child care. Both spouses working full time and dead tired... I offered up advice and it was taken like I had spoken some alien language. Debt is all the know... They couldn't function without it. Oh yes, they had all the bells and whistles that makes life "worth living", but they couldn't pay off debt and have more kids. More Reality, more sad...

nadgeskaul
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:16am

Fed's Williams Commented on Gold

"Hard for me to understand gold as a hedge on risk."

"U.S. doing well, we're in a good position right now."

I wonder if he saw the GDP print.

Jawboning galore until Sep meeting.

Jul 29, 2016 - 10:27am

What a classic Fed douchebag

This is the very same Goon Williams of San Francisco who said in June that there would be 6 more rate hikes before the end of 2017, raising the FF rate to the 1.75-2.00% range.

HOW AND WHY DOES ANYONE TAKE THESE BUFFOONS SERIOUSLY???

Jul 29, 2016 - 10:28am

BTW and fwiw

Post the PM Fix, gold back to $1353. Very nice. Again, very much looking forward to seeing what August brings.

ChaCha Mars
Jul 29, 2016 - 10:35am

Shanghai toying with paper gold?

Just heard. For real?

Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

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Key Economic Events Week of 12/2

12/2 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
12/2 10:00 ET Construction Spending
12/4 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
12/4 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
12/5 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
12/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
12/6 8:30 ET BLSBS
12/6 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/25

11/25 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Nat'l Idx
11/25 7:00 pm ET CGP speech
11/26 8:30 ET Advance Trade
11/26 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
11/26 10:00 ET New home sales
11/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/27 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/27 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/27 10:00 ET Pers Inc & Cons Spndg
11/27 10:00 ET Core inflation
11/27 2:00 pm ET Beige Book

Key Economic Events Week of 11/18

11/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perms
11/20 2:00 ET October FOMC minutes
11/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales
11/22 9:45 ET Markit November Flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

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