This Week's JB-SFC

Wed, Jun 29, 2016 - 1:36pm

As usual, this week's update is a must listen for everyone. We've been following The New Cold War for 30 months now and, frankly, it has never been more dangerous than it is right now.

Here are the show notes from Mr. Batchelor's website:

Blaming Putin after BREXIT. Stephen F. Cohen, NYU, Princeton University,

"Brexit is a win for Putin," announced Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia.

Writing in The Washington Post, McFaul said: "Putin, of course, did not cause the Brexit vote, but he and his foreign policy objectives stand to gain enormously from it."

But at least publicly, that's not how Putin sees it.

Shortly after the vote, the Russian president told reporters that Brexit brought both "positives and negatives."

European reaction to Brexit vote 03:41

Putin, along with his prime minister, both warned of the unsettling effects of the vote on the financial markets. Despite EU sanction on Russia over Ukraine, the EU remains Russia's biggest trading partner.

"If the EU falls apart at the seams, this will affect our trade relations," warned Konstantin Kosachev, head of the Russian Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee.

It would, however, be naive to think Russia's hardline president, locked in a bitter rivalry with the West, isn't allowing himself a wry smile as a key European institution fragments.

There may be economic benefits for a start.

One new report suggests that trade between Britain and Russia could actually be boosted by the Brexit vote, especially with the British pound in free fall.

"Sterling's weakness against the euro creates opportunities for UK exporters to take market share from EU competitors," said Chris Weafer, senior partner at Macro Advisory, which provides investment analysis.

And then there are sanctions.

Russia is currently suffering under tough measures imposed on it by the EU over Ukraine. Britain, along with the nations of Eastern Europe, has been among the strongest voices to keep the sanctions in place.

But even Moscow's Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, can see how Brexit may have a positive impact for Russia.

"Without Great Britain in the EU, there is no longer anyone so stridently standing up for sanctions against us," he tweeted after the result.

Even if sanctions are not eased, the Kremlin may turn Europe's troubles to its advantage.

The scenes of chaos likely to emerge from Britain and the EU in the coming weeks and months will provide a stark contrast to the image of stability at home -- Russia strong under Putin, that the Kremlin strives to portray.

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Jun 30, 2016 - 9:07am
Jun 30, 2016 - 6:27am

The West Vs SCO

At 15, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a little younger than the presidency of Vladimir Putin. It’s not a bloc, nor an alliance, nor a union. What is it, and what does it do – this organization that seems amorphous in terms of the cold war — besides consisting of the countries not included in the Western ranks?

It includes half the population of the planet, generating a fifth of its economy, as well as two of the most motivated and well-armed militaries – the Russian and Chinese.

Freedom and flexibility of responsibilities for SCO participating countries is one advantage over the EU. It has the problem of coordinating positions, but does the EU not have the same? On the other hand, it returns to the European principles of civilized unity, to what had been called "the Concert of Europe" post-Napoleon, that even allowed wars against participants according to certain rules. The two world wars put an end to "the Concert of Europe", which accepted Japan after the Meiji Restoration, although it wasn’t European at all.

Today the "concert" is being restored, but with a European format and a more complex configuration than 200 years ago, but perhaps with better prospects. Skeptics pretend to be pragmatic when they interpret the SCO as merely a regional initiative, saying, “It’s good that there will be more roads (appearing for the first time in some places), and fewer conflicts in Central Asia, but this will only happen in that part of the world.”

Let’s recall what a region means.

A region is a cooperative entity including many states and economic agents, many of which, in turn, are multi-state, inter-state or trans-state. A region is a geographical pole that organizes the world on a given basis; it is a reversal of globalization, which is directed in one way or another, creating or solving so-called regional problems.

The British Commonwealth gave the world at least two knots of regional conflicts which seem irresolvable. One conflict is between parts of former colonial India: Muslim Pakistan and India, mostly Hindu and decisively non-Muslim.

The second conflict is the hopeless knot of the Afghan conflict, which the late USSR failed to cut like the Gordian knot. American intervention into Afghanistan, with a diametrically opposed goal – adding some ‘imported democracy’ to the chaos, – attained its objective. Skyrocketing growth in drugs production (which became part of business of the American army), speaks for itself.

We will have to sort out the consequences of interference in our continental affairs on the part of islanders – either from the ‘"ittle island" where Brexit has just taken place, or from the "big" one, that occupies almost all of North America. It’s no coincidence that India and Pakistan, which had leveraged US negative influence in the region, entered this collective organization at the jubilee summit of the SCO in Tashkent.

The SCO, starting with the hottest spots of Eurasia – the Indian-Pakistani conflict and the Afghan knot, is developing as a system of collective continental security for the XXIst century. Possibilities for economic synergy provide an incentive to global economic development as well. And Russia’s efforts in Syria fit seamlessly into this strategy of a new continental security.

The text of the Tashkent Declaration, signed by SCO participants, including newly-affiliated India and Pakistan, clearly shows that the SCO presents itself as a global power, backing up a UN that copes poorly with today’s problems.

It’s not the UN Security Council, frozen in the arms of nuclear deterrence against Russia, but a whole big "board" of countries, until now helplessly contemplating global problems that increase in number and force. The fact that SCO participating countries committed themselves to relatively "weak" rather than ‘strong’ organizational restrictions, leaves space and hope for reviving real international law, of which not much is left at the UN, but which is so vital for the world community of nations.

Jun 29, 2016 - 6:19pm
Jun 29, 2016 - 3:00pm

I think the attack on the Istanbul Airport

might be a US/CIA retaliation/warning to Erdogan to not cozy up to Russia. The attack came the day after the public "apology" from the mad dog.

Jun 29, 2016 - 2:32pm


things are getting crazy out there!!

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/19

10/19 11:45 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
10/20 1:00 pm ET Goon Evans
10/21 10:00 ET Goon Mester
10/21 2:00 pm ET Fed Beige Book
10/22 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
10/23 9:45 ET Markit Oct flash PMIs

Key Economic Events Week of 10/12

10/13 8:30 ET CPI and Core CPI
10/14 8:30 ET PPI
10/14 9:00 ET Goon Chlamydia
10/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Idx
10/15 8:30 ET Import Price Idx
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inv

Key Economic Events Week of 10/5

10/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
10/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
10/5 10:45 ET Goon Evans
10/6 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
10/6 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
10/6 10:45 ET Chief Goon Powell
10/7 2:00 ET Sept FOMC minutes
10/7 3:00 ET Goon Williams
10/8 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 12:10 ET Goon Rosengren

Key Economic Events Week of 9/28

9/29 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
9/29 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
9/29 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/30 8:15 ET ADP employment report
9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
10/1 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 9/21

9/21 8:00 ET Goon Kaplan
9/21 10:00 ET Goon Evans
9/21 Noon ET Goon Brainard
9/21 6:00 pm ET Goon Williams & Goon Bostic
9/22 10:30 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/22 Noon ET Goon Barkin
9/22 3:00 pm ET Goon Bostic again
9/23 9:00 ET Goon Mester
9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for September
9/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/23 11:00 ET Goon Evans again
9/23 Noon ET Goon Rosengren
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Quarles
9/24 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell on Capitol Hill
9/24 Noon ET Goon Bullard
9/24 1:00 pm ET Goon Barkin again & Goon Evans #3
9/24 2:00 pm ET Goon Bostic #4
9/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/25 11:00 ET Goon Evans #4
9/25 3:00 pm ET Goon Williams again

Key Economic Events Week of 9/14

9/15 8:30 ET Empire State and Import Price Idx
9/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
9/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
9/16 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
9/16 2:30 ET Powell Presser
9/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/18 8:30 ET Current Acct Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/7

9/9 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings
9/10 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/10 8:30 ET PPI
9/10 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
9/11 8:30 ET CPI
9/11 9:45 ET Core CPI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/31

9/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu Index
9/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/2 8:15 ET ADP employment
9/2 10:00 ET Goon Williams
9/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/3 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
9/3 8:30 ET Trade Deficit
9/3 12:30 ET Goon Evans
9/4 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/24

8/24 8:30 ET Chicago Fed Idx
8/25 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/27 9:10 ET Chief Goon Powell Jackson Hole
8/28 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Consumer Spend
8/28 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/28 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/17

8/17 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Idx
8/17 Noon ET Goon Bostic
8/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts
8/19 2:00 pm ET July FOMC minutes
8/20 8:30 ET Jobless claims
8/20 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/20 10:00 ET LEIII
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