One Day To Brexit Vote

89
Wed, Jun 22, 2016 - 10:53am

With the Brexit vote coming up tomorrow, today we should take a moment to consider what should happen with gold following the outcome.

The first thing you need to know is that this is NOT a done deal. The assumption since last Thursday is that Brexit will fail...and it likely will. The City of London almost always gets what The City of London wants. To think that the hoi polloi will be allowed to advance an agenda that is NOT in The City's interests is almost unfathomable, sort of like those believing that a new Glass-Steagall will be passed one day in the U.S.. The Financial-Political Complex overpowers everything through bribery, greed and corruption so to think that popular opinion would be allowed to override them?...Well, it's a longshot.

That said, the polls remain close and be sure to check this from ZH. As you know, ole Turd knows a little about bookmaking so, to me, this makes perfect sense. Essentially, the bookmaker simply desires equal amounts of money on each side of the wager. The amount of individual bets tells you something about the supposed "smart money" but it can be misleading. What this ZH post shows is that there is a huge amount of individual bets on Brexit but an equally huge amount of money...in much larger chunks...on Bremain. Now why would that be? Does the "smart money" know something that the "squares" do not? Or is someone attempting to influence opinion by placing big bets in order to drive the odds toward Bremain. This is an interesting question to consider in the remaining hours before the vote. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/something-strange-emerges-when...

And here's yet another major English newspaper coming out with an endorsement of Brexit: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3653385/Lies-greedy-elites-di...

And don't forget who reads newspapers and which is the most likely demographic to turn out in large numbers...old(er) people. And which group is most likely to reject the EU in favor of British "patriotism"? Old(er) people. Just sayin'.

So, again, this is far from a done deal, regardless of The City's desires. Sit tight and be ready. Tomorrow will be fun!

To that end, let's now talk about gold and the impact of the vote on paper gold "prices". It will be easier to discuss this verbally and we'll attempt to do so in today's podcast which, God willing, I'll be able to post before 8:00 pm EDT.

Here's where ole Turd stands...and this is NOT because "Turd is just a permabull who always says BTFD". Everything and every scenario says gold is going to rally, NOT plummet. Why? Let's list a few of the reasons:

  1. How much "Brexit risk premium" was pumped into gold in the first place? Gold was $1213 and down nearly $100 from its highs before the June BLSBS put an end to the Fed Goon Jawboning Parade. After the BLSBS, it closed June 3 at $1243. It then rallied over the next two weeks, anticipating a dovish FOMC and was $1284 when the Fedlines were released one week ago today. How much of that rally was FOMC-related and how much was Brexit-related? Maybe 80/20? Maybe. In fact, Brexit really only entered as a legitimate possibility early last week. So, considering that gold is now $50 off its peak last Thursday, I think the "Brexit risk premium" is already done, gone and out.
  2. So this actually puts gold DOWN $16 or 1.3% since the extremely dovish and dissentless Fedlines of last week! What? That's crazy!! All this does is once again prove the old adage that, if you want to make money trading the metals, you must always "sell some when everything looks great and buy some when everything looks terrible".
  3. From an HFT-algo perspective, EITHER vote scenario should be gold bullish. Why? A Brexit vote will dump the euro but surge the yen. This would/could/might blow the USDJPY all the way to and through the 101 target we've been discussing. Bond futures will soar worldwide, too, as "investors seek the safe haven of fixed income". These two combined should drive heavy HFT gold futures buying. But what about Bremain? If this occurs, the Euro will rally...at least it should. And the euro is about 60% of the POSX. A 2-3 point rally in the Euro would drive the POSX back toward 92. After an initial shock, the HFTs and smart human money managers everywhere will begin to focus upon the tumbling Pig and Fed dovishness...as they should have been doing every day since last Wednesday...and you'll get a quick bounce and recovery from any selling.
  4. And, in the end, simply look at price and history.

"What does that mean Turd? Please elaborate on point #4." OK, I'll be glad to.

Recall what happened in May. Gold surged toward the critical $1308 point? What did The Cartel Banks do? They desperately capped and capped and then brazenly used all of the Fed Goon jawboning as an excuse to ram prices back down and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, cover over 100,000 naked shorts BEFORE The Fed actually announced that they were powerless and neutered. So, as price rallied on the actual news of June 3 and June 15, The Banks were able to control price and keep it below $1308 by issuing back out the same old paper that they had issued in April. So, what has the past 4 days been about? It's the exact same trick/strategy!

The Cartel Banks have used the Bremain sentiment since the Cox assassination as cover to raid price, drive Specs back out and cover shorts. That way, when price begins to rally again regardless of the outcome, they'll have shorts to issue as they attempt again to keep price below $1308. See how that works? Just yesterday, we saw an overt raid of $20 and an open interest decline of nearly 10,000 contracts...back to 571,000. With prices down a little again today, who knows how many more nervous-nelly Specs are heading to the exits ahead of the vote.

The point is...Just as in May, The Banks KNOW what is going to happen next. The paper price of gold is going to rally in the days and weeks to come, regardless of the outcome of tomorrow's vote. Therefore, just as in May, they are desperately using any and every opportunity to scare out some Specs and cover some shorts. Got it? See what I mean? Again, we'll try to make some sense of all this in today's podcast.

For now, gold is down $5 as I type and, earlier today, came very close to tapping its 50-day MA and the lower band of our channel...which we've been mentioning as a likelihood since Sunday evening. What's my strategy? Sit back, relax and watch the fireworks. If I can remember tonight, I think I'll even order another shiny ounce of gold from JMB or GoldenEagle. I mean, why not? Get it while you can! Again, I absolutely expect the 50-day to hold and that the hand-crafted/painted double top on the chart to fail. My target next remains $1340.

And one more thing...As the world moves on from "All Brexit, All The Time", I though that this little tweet was interesting:

Have a great day but be sure to check back much later for a full podcast.

TF

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  89 Comments

Jun 22, 2016 - 10:56am

And another post from the passenger seat!

Man, this new car of MrsF's is cool! Killed about 90 minutes of a 9-hour drive, too!

Btw, A2A tomorrow is with Greg Mannarino and it begins a little later than usual at 3:00 pm EDT. You can register here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1770860608991665155

Marcrward
Jun 22, 2016 - 10:58am

2nd again

Slow day.

UulaBear
Jun 22, 2016 - 10:59am

Bronze Place Again

Almost a buy time...

Jun 22, 2016 - 11:06am

Maybe later today, we'll make this public

Maybe, we'll see. Just wanted to give everyone a heads up in case we do.

Bollocks
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:08am

OH! ... "No exit poll for TV coverage of EU referendum result"

Just listen to this 'professor' (an expert, of course) give a totally nonsensical explanation why:
---

No exit poll for TV coverage of EU referendum result

Prof John Curtice explains why there will be no exit poll on Thursday night after the EU referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36596647

---
Can't have the possibility of a majority saying they voted leave, eh?

Blythesshrink
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:12am

"The assumption since last

"The assumption since last Thursday is that Brexit will fail...and it likely will. The City of London almost always gets what The City of London wants. To think that the hoi polloi will be allowed to advance an agenda that is NOT in The City's interests is almost unfathomable, sort of like those believing that a new Glass-Steagall will be passed one day in the U.S.."

Bah - as a proud member of the UK hoi polloi :-) I'm doing my bit for Brexit by voting out. Will they rig it - well everything else around the world seems thoroughly corrupt, so if Brexit wins, it's probably by design! :-)

Jun 22, 2016 - 11:12am

Anyone interested in DB puts again?

Time to consider this chart once more:

Blythesshrink
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:15am

"The Cartel Banks have used

"The Cartel Banks have used the Bremain sentiment since the Cox assassination as cover to raid price, drive Specs back out and cover shorts. That way, when price begins to rally again regardless of the outcome, they'll have shorts to issue as they attempt again to keep price below $1308."

What do people think, how possible is it that the banks placed some on that money at the bookies to move the odds and trigger the rally in stocks, drop in gold to allow them to cover?

Blythesshrink
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:17am

on the lack of an exit poll,

on the lack of an exit poll, I checked regarding the referendum we had a few years back on the voting system here - and no exit poll for that for the same reason - so possibly there are genuine reasons for that.

Marchas45
Jun 22, 2016 - 11:20am

I'M WAITING, WAITING, WAITING, GOOOOOOOOOO

Am I 4th????????

1st Bloody Hell folks I waited 4 minutes. Keep Stacking

I believe Britain will leave. All my family members in Scotland are voting leave compared to them all voting NO and staying in the UK on the last big vote. There are a lot off pissed of people in Britain right now. So I see them leaving. Keep Stacking

Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

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Key Economic Events Week of 11/11

11/12 Three Fed Goon speeches
11/13 8:30 ET CPI
11/13 11:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/14 8:30 ET PPI
11/14 Four Fed Goon speeches
11/14 10:00 ET CGP on Capitol Hill
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Manu Index
11/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 11/4

11/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
11/5 9:45 ET Markit Services PMI
11/5 10:00 ET ISM Services PMI
11/6 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
11/6 Speeches by Goons Williams, Harker and Evans
11/8 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
11/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 10/28

10/30 8:30 ET Q3 GDP first guess
10/30 2:00 ET FOMC fedlines
10/30 2:30 ET CGP presser
10/31 8:30 ET Personal Income & Spending
10/31 8:30 ET Core Inflation
10/31 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
11/1 8:30 ET BLSBS
11/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
1/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

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