Turd Makes A Move

Tue, Jun 21, 2011 - 1:05pm

 The action in gold has proven to be too much for me to take.

I had a massage appointment this morning. I was supposed to relax. Instead, I found my mind drifting back to Greece, the PIIGS, the euro and the impact on gold. The more I thought about it, the more I was convinced that any eventuality in Greece is gold-positive. When the massage ended, I raced to my car to check the gold price and found that it had once again been thwarted by the EE, at a price just below 1550.


Driving home, I started thinking about the importance and relevance of 1550 to the Fed. Beyond there lies the alltime closing high of 1558.40. Gold making new alltime highs makes additional QE that much more difficult to announce. Let me stress this: Gold at alltime highs does not preclude or make impossible more QE, it simply makes it more challenging from a MOPE standpoint. Remember and never forget that, through the bullion banks, the Federal Reserve manages the perception of future inflation. Keeping the price of gold in check and its upside controlled is one of the tools the allows the Fed to fool investors into believing that inflation is low and, therefore, interest rates can remain low...and... interest rates must remain low for the funding of our entire national debt-deficit-ponzi. That said, the Fed has no choice. QE will continue regardless of whether or not gold is above 1550. Therefore, though that level is being fought, the EE doesn't necessarily have to win.

Take a look at this daily chart. This is what ultimately pushed me over the edge and back into gold a few minutes ago.


I am now the proud owner of some August 1550 calls as well as a spread of the December 1600s vs the December 1700s.

Lastly, you're probably asking yourself, "how does this jibe with Turd's expectation of summer doldrums"? Frankly, it doesn't but I'll try to square it this way:

1) I could be wrong about the doldrums. Turk and Santa are a lot smarter than I am.

2) I still do not expect a big silver rally until inflation expectations heat up again with the appearance of QE3. Therefore, other than the soon-to-be-worthless July $40 calls I own, I am not buying silver...at least for now. So, gold good, silver dull.

With 25 minutes to go, gold is at 1545.20 and thinking about making one more run at 1550 before the close. I would absolutely love to see it close the pit session at about 1548. That way, the Asians and Indians could take a stab at 1550 while the Monkeys sleep. We'll see. More later after the Greek vote. TF

About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


sevin · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:13pm

Thanks Turd! Hope the massage

Thanks Turd! Hope the massage was good! I think we can breach 1550 in overnight trading!

Captain Silver · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:13pm



Too brave for me my man. But good luck!

silver_hunter · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:20pm


okay, third is not bad. I hold both gold and silver.

just another perl hacker · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:22pm


who leaves a massage before the happy ending?

needadeel · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:22pm

Silver Timing

I like the looks of gold too. Picked up some last Wednesday. I have been ready to hop back in to silver for two months now, but I am having a difficult time getting the timing right. It's hard to imagine a gold rally without at least some positive silver movement, so I'm wondering if now might be the time for silver too. 33 would look a lot better, but there may not be a bottom from here.

Eric Original · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:23pm

One more point of reference:

One more point of reference: record high london fix is 1549.00

SilverTree · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:26pm
thetahoetrader · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:29pm

Turd Twice Right

Actually Turd could be right on both counts: a new nominal high above $1560, new money coming in with the breakout, big money selling out to the new buyers, then the rollover into the summer downtrend. Could that make sense?

SilverIsKing · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:33pm

Massage Envy?

Is Turd a card carrying member?

Just an FYI - Clive Maund and Stewart Thomson both came out with articles today and they both feel an explosion in the gold price is imminent. Maund thinks the broader markets, including gold, will move to the upside soon whereas Thomson more specifically discusses a big move by gold.

I personally think the basing activity and support we've seen recently portends for a strong move up. It appears there's limited downside from here given that however the Greece scenario plays out, as Turd states, it's good for gold.

Eric Original · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:33pm

Silver Tree

Cool. Very Cool. cool

Shill · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:33pm

Good move Trud

Nice Turd, actually I bought back in on Gold miners this morning as well, call me stupid, but this sucker does not want to go down.

Best wishes.

Chris · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:40pm

Jim Rogers on Greece

Video unavailable
GSFL · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:41pm

I didn't buy any Gold but I

I didn't buy any Gold but I did buy some beat up miners at the close yesterday and they have paid off today. Now do I sell or do I hold?

Save_America1st · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:42pm

@ Eric Original

I posted at the bottom of the last thread not knowing a new one was up, so I will paste this over here for Eric Original and anyone else:

@ Eric Original


Awesome man...funny, I just looked at my meager (and I do mean meager) miner portfolio (if you can call it that), and every single one of them is in the green right now too! I probably just jinxed them by posting this, but oh well...

I'm used to seeing a bloodbath every day for the last few months, so I've almost become numb to what my miners look like. I'm in it for the long haul, have bought mostly penny stuff at very low price per share, and I feel they will all explode come this fall, so I'm very patient.

One thing I just noticed, and I wondered if you would remember this from the old site. 

There was a guy who for a while a few months back constantly lit up the board telling everyone to buy Mountainview Energy. An oil stock that was obtaining a bunch of land in the Bakken area.

Back then the stock was in the 2 dollar range, and I seem to remember a lot of people busting on that guy that it was a pump and dump.

I had forgotten all about it until this morning and was looking at some stocks on my watchlist. Mountainview is one of them, but I hadn't seen it since a few months back. 

Well it's at .49/share now! Then I realized that I hadn't seen that dude on the board for quite a long time also...he must have gotten run off. But I remember he sure was pumping this stock up big time saying it would make us all millionaires one day.

I couldn't see buying it at 2 bucks a pop back then, but I wonder if it's worth taking a shot at it now that it has dropped so far down. At under .50 cents it's definitely a lot less of a risk.

Any thoughts? Anyone else own this one or know anything good/bad about it?

speconomist · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:43pm

Could someone elaborate a

Could someone elaborate a little in a concept mentioned by Mr. Turd?

 a spread of the December 1600s vs the December 1700s

Eric Original · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:45pm


I replied to you after your first one, on the old thread.

Caradoc · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:52pm

Following TF's timing and why

Must not have been too far behind TF in deciding to make the plunge since this new thread was showing only two comments when I logged in. So my timing is similar but with difference that I chose the higher volatility of silver. (My first ever summer buy of either precious metal and so breaking all my rules about grudgingly recognizing the seasonality of the metals.) In any event, I'm about 20% in with most of that in AGQ at 181.91, a few shares of EXK at 8.30 and -- just for fun -- a few hundred worth of EXK August call options with strike price of $10.

So why am I not following my own rule of "Sell in May and go away"? Because my perception is that the financial world is in for a summer of upheaval that won't look anything like the traditional summer doldrums when things don't get moving until Sept/Oct and don't get sweet until Thanksgiving/Christmas. 

It's way too early for me to get happy about this move, but with AGQ at 182.75 and EXK at 8.41 I'm not too nervous.


PS: The new forum looks great! Next up, I'll be checking to see whether "prepare accordingly" still includes canning (of bacon or whatever), dehydrating, and planting things like fruit/nuts and asparagus/rhubarb that give a crop every year without having to be planted each spring.

mojine · Jun 21, 2011 - 1:57pm


not in Glossary - can kinda grok it from context, but what is it exactly? TIA

buzlightening · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:00pm

Nother good CONmex close!

Appears there' s an upward bias building to let loose after FOMC goon speak wed. 2:15 pm est. I've seen the capping of PM's going on for too long to know something is about to break out. It may keep cranking down the rubber band for another week but it's getting wound very tight with gold. No doubt gold breaks out we'll see a move up in silver also. Not dramatic as in April but it's winding up for a punch to new highs by early Fall. This is all things remaining the same. EU/ECB insolvency could take this union to ashes today or 6 months down the road. What's going on across the pond will eventually sling shot round to our states in similar erosion of of all things fiat. From munis to the USDinker dollar it isn't a good bet going forward. The funneling in of 30% margin cuts to UST's also say the government will make it easy for DIMMS: Dumb Ignorant Mental Midget Sheeple to get stuck with dead head fed goon bad paper. 

Tom L · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:02pm


And silver closes right at $36.50. That's hysterical. No, really, we have open and free markets. You can't make this stuff up. I'm a writer and I wouldn't dare do something so obvious. I guess running an EE doesn't require much of an imagination.


Chicken Little mojine · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:07pm


Management of Perspective Economics (from Santa = Jim Sinclair)

speconomist mojine · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:07pm

Management of Perception


MOPE = Management of Perception Economics.

snick · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:08pm

Thinking about buying gold miners again

Well, i've been thinking about buying some gold mining shares. I don't trade in futures or options, just physical & miners. I've been listening to Dan Norcini & Jim Sinclair on King World News, in addition to watching the news, and it looks to me like it might be about time to buy. Also, my reference fiat is the Euro, which is pretty strong right now, but which soon might take a fall through the floor.

On the other hand, I'm sort of scared shitless that a huge stock market crash is looming, and that such a crash would take the miners down with it.

So I will probably end up moving slowly, adding small positions of selected stocks. In particular, I'm thinking of the following stocks:

Tanzanian Royalty Exploration - because it's Jim Sinclair's company, and because they seem to have good mining properties that are close to production. Small-cap company, which is what I like.

Sandstorm Gold - Gold streaming company analogous to SLW in the silver space. I would be adding to my position here, as this stock has been good to me.

Brigus Gold - small-cap, in production, good recent drill results. Also, I liked their mine tour presentation. Sandstorm Gold is invested in it, and I'm pretty sure they do better DD than I do.


 anyway, just fwiw ....

Gregor · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:08pm


As I explained below, I continue to get longer gold duration. 2013 calls are my ponies.



Nick Elway · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:09pm




MOPE management of perception economy

MOPE is the constant massaging and manipulation that Big Media and our Governments engage in to keep the masses unaware of what's really going on.

..more on Baleta

silverwood mojine · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:16pm

MOPE defined

Management Of Perceptions Economy, MOPE is a Jim Sinclair term. I it can be used to accurately explain a lot of the funny stuff we see going on in our markets! Painting charts would fall under MOPE. 

SilverWealth · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:17pm


Gold has shown consistent relative strength over these last days and weeks, it wants to ram on thru and if it does it will well lead a charge up San Juan ridge and into Sting's Fields of Gold. But it makes no sense then to beleive that Silver will not follow. They almost always trade together and one leads the other. One cannot argue that Gold will take off and Silver will lay back, it is not in Silver's nature at all to lay back while its older, slower brother leads. Two greyhounds in a race are spirited by the fire shared between them. Techies will be surprised by this action since they stare at the chart and will demand that Silver languish and 'work off' the May crash. But this belies the true reality that the May crash was a synthetic and criminally manufactured event which bore no resemblance to price discovery. That crash was based in Market rigging by the hoods,looters and racketeers that infest the thin metals markets particularly in the slumbering hours when cockroaches are out and about and free to thieve and feast. The chart in Silver may just surprise many. Who knows? And the miners are long overdue for at least a snap back rally of some significance. 

treefrog mojine · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:17pm


a term from santa meaning management of perception economics.

if tptb can manage (control) how the public perceives the situation, it's easier for them to steal.

Larry · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:20pm

Rise, Fall, Blastoff?

Turd back into gold, Santa and Trader Dan proclaiming good on mining shares and I’m preparing my next buys. But I’ve also read some other information that gives me much caution with anything paper in the short term. Could see a formidable rise in mining equities then a waterfall… then a rocket to the moon for a long term ride up. Timing is tricky and dangerous but I’ll be watching the POSX and the broad markets for clues to take profits or sell outright and wait for what could be months long bottoms.

From the Deepcaster Fortress Assets Letter, posted for the Week Ending June 10, 2011 they list three danger-sectors and give forecasts for Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar, U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds & Interest Rates. It’s also a subscription service but well worth every penny.

A clip from the latest Deepcaster Alert:

“Very Short term, we expect Gold and Silver and their Shares to Rally, if and as Equities Rally. Indeed, it appears that the Precious Metal Rally is on the verge of relaunching, and we expect it to continue, at least until the USD bounces.”

“Then at the time of that forecast USD bounce (see above), expect The Cartel to launch another Greatly Intensified Attack on these Precious Metals Prices, which we forecast will drive them farther down perhaps even to multi-month lows.”

“We thus reiterate the worst (paper) Price Expectations (i.e. eventually, before 2011 is over) which would see the Paper Gold Price at $1275ish/oz, the HUI at 440 and the Paper Silver at $26ish/oz, but all would still be bouncing off the bottom of their long-term uptrending channels at these levels. But we think it less likely paper Gold will be taken down to $1275 than that Paper Silver will be taken down to $26."



So, maybe a good rise, then a big waterfall... then a gigantic rise to the moon. Try timing this or just buy beaten down miners this week and go away? 

Larry · Jun 21, 2011 - 2:22pm

Another Recco

Another must read website is Le Metropol Café, from the esteemed Bill (‘Midas’) Murphy of GATA. It’s a worthy place for anyone (everyone) interested in gold and silver. Lots of good contributions can be found there. Well worth the small subscription charge. Check it out if you haven’t… they have a free trial making this a risk free, no brainer.

A recent clip from Midas’ site:

“It is BACK THE TRUCK UP time and Friday's close may have been the "kickoff". In the last half hour and in some cases the last 5 minutes I noticed HUGE VOLUME and in several cases big percentage moves to the upside in a few companies that I follow."

"In my opinion, if you have cash buy more shares now, if you are long and fully invested, sit tight and relax because you know the math, you have done the logic and now the marketplace has mispriced the mining shares so badly as to make the sector a no brainer. We have had top callers for years and years call how many, 50, 100 or more tops?"

"Gold and silver have been doing a great deal of backing and filling … doing a great deal of work around present levels and below. The Gold Cartel keeps taking both precious metals down, yet they keep coming back. The fundamentals and technicals are screaming higher. This price "work" that both gold and silver has done have been base building sort of action … basing which can send both to much higher levels. Spoke with James Turk today and both of us believe these markets are explosive."


Notice: If you do not see your new comment immediately, do not be alarmed. We are currently refreshing new comments approximately every 2 minutes to better manage performance while working on other issues. Thank you for your patience.

Become a gold member and subscribe to Turd's Vault


Donate  Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Exclusive discount for silver purchases, and a private iTunes feed for TF Metals Report podcasts!

Key Economic Events week of 11/26

11/27 9:00 ET Case-Schiller home prices
11/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
11/28 8:30 ET Q3 GDP 2nd guess
11/28 10:00 ET New home sales
11/29 8:30 ET Personal Income and Spending
11/29 10:00 ET Pending home sales
11/29 2:00 ET November FOMC minutes

Key Economic Events week of 11/19

11/20 8:30 ET Housing Starts
11/21 8:30 ET Durable Goods
11/21 10:00 ET UMich Sentiment
11/21 10:00 ET LEIII
11/21 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 11/12

11/14 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
11/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales
11/15 8:30 ET Philly Fed
11/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed
11/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories
11/16 9:15 ET Industrial Prod and Cap Utilization

Recent Comments