Spinning The Yarn

Tue, Apr 26, 2016 - 10:32am

Another one of Mother Fellen's Tea & Doily Parties begins today amidst a haze of economic collapse and negative interest rates. Just last week, Mother held three unscheduled meetings with her Goons and she even visited the brain trust at The White House. So the question becomes, might Mother have some surprises up her sleeve when the Fedlines are released tomorrow?

I mean, for crying in a bucket. At some point there has to be some sort of mainstream acknowledgement of just how lousy things are...right? Seriously, how can this stuff be continually downplayed and overlooked? How many goons and shills can CNBS and BBG roll onto their airwaves to disingenuously assure everyone that "Q2 will surely see a rebound"? The Economic Disaster du Jour comes to us this morning listed as Durable Goods for the month of March:

But check this...Even the ZH headline fails to tell the entire story. ZH states: "Core Durable Goods Tumble For 14th Month, Longest Non-Recessionary Stretch In 60 Years". Well, why would that be? How could we have this current "non-recessionary stretch"? Remember the traditional measure of a recession is two, consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Well, back in the day...say over the first 55 years or so...you could actually put some amount of trust in the GDP measurements. But now, the GDP numbers are all double and even triple seasonally-adjusted to make them look better! THAT'S how you get "The Longest Non-Recessionary Stretch In 60 Years"! You never get data that shows a recession because you keep fudging and inflating the data! See how that works?!?

(Keep in mind that the first guesstimate of Q1 GDP will be released on Thursday at 8:30 EDT. Recall that the most recent Atlanta Fed GDPnow is just +0.3%...even with the double adjustments!)

And into this ongoing disaster Mother convenes another Tea & Doily party today. No one is expecting much and the odds of a "rate hike" are essentially zero. However, LIESman will still breathlessly analyze each Fedline word-for-word when they're announced and who knows what slight punctuation changes might wiggle the algos. But I do want you to at least ponder the possibility of some sort of surprise.

Keep in mind that ole Mother held those three, previously-unscheduled meetings with her Goons last week. Additionally, last Monday, she rushed off to The White House to meet Woody and Plugs. Now, of course, we have no freaking idea what all of this might have been about...this being, as you know, the most transparent administration in history. BUT...what if these meetings were about a pending reversal of course? Maybe, instead of "two more rate hikes in 2016", Mother was informing The Buffoon Brothers of her plans to ease rates and restart QE, if necessary? What if this is alluded to in the Fedlines tomorrow? I don't know...I'm just sayin. I'll guess we'll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, I saw in the press release that Mother had already stitched this little beauty earlier today. She really has a gift...

Given that today is option expiration for the May silver contract, it should continue to come as no surprise that silver is pinned near $17, given that the small "sweet spot" for expiry is right near there, too. I still haven't made any moves...no options or miner buybacks...but that's about to change. Having a decent cash balance in an option account is not something that an addicted gambler can handle and I definitely want to get back into a few deals before the fedlines tomorrow. For those playing along at home, I'll be sure to let you know what I decide.

In the meantime, be sure to note that...as of today...the moving averages in silver are all bullishly crossed and this configuration is as bullish as it gets for these particular technical inputs. Does this mean that silver can no longer be raided and smashed lower? F NO!!! However, it does mean that the HFTs should now be dip buyers rather than rally sellers for the first time since 2012.

And here's a shocker...After reaching a low of $1232 and a high of $1246, gold is currently $1243. What so shocking about that? If you don't know, then you clearly haven't been spending enough time in Turdville over the past week.

On the bright side, total OI in gold fell another 6,400 contracts yesterday, back to 495,436. This means we've now shed over 16,000 contracts from last Thursday's massive cap and raid and it gives us a little wiggle room should the Specs come charging back in late tomorrow and Thursday.

But this will blow you away...In silver, where the May contract is going off teh board on Thursday and OI should be falling, total open interest surged again yesterday by another 4,250 contracts! This brings the total Comex silver OI to a new alltime record high of 206,037...a level which is simply incredible!!! Again, doing the math:

  • 206,037 contracts X 5000 oz/contract = 1,030,185,000 ounces of paper "silver" on the Comex

Please allow me to remind you that the entire planet will only produce 880,000,000 ounces of silver this year.

So, THE CRIMINAL AND EVIL COMEX BANKS now have written derivative contracts for 117% of total mine supply.

And this is legal? And this process "discovers" a free and fair price? Okeydokey, then.

As I go to close, I see that ZH has just posted summaries of three more, terrible economic datapoints from this morning:

Perhaps we should embed LIESman directly into that Fed meeting room. He might even be inspired learn how to sew. With the yarns that will be spun at 2:00 pm tomorrow, that skill might come in awful handy.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Apr 26, 2016 - 10:34am



Apr 26, 2016 - 10:34am



Royal Flush
Apr 26, 2016 - 10:35am



arch stanton
Apr 26, 2016 - 10:36am

i hate to do it


Ferd Torgerson
Apr 26, 2016 - 10:48am

Another Fifth??

I'd already gone through one fifth before breakfast.


Apr 26, 2016 - 10:50am

And in a stunning development...

Into option expiry, silver is held in a 20¢ range for two, full trading days:

Apr 26, 2016 - 10:51am

Miner Put Buyers


That's two big put buyers in Jun in major gold miners $ABX and $NEM; 10,000 and 8,500 respectively

9:50 AM - 26 Apr 2016

Apr 26, 2016 - 10:55am

What a great post!

Craig, you got the tears rollin' down my cheeks... and my side hurts!

"Woody and Plugs" LOLOL!!

Apr 26, 2016 - 10:59am

Could be a hedge, too

Could be a hedge, too

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:05am

The Doily

There are exactly 666 illuminati symbols in that doily. I counted.

- H.

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:08am


Every since receiving that "tap on the shoulder" two weeks ago, our pudgy little friend in Atlanta has clearly decided to do his Masters bidding in order to keep his cushy, 6-figure job at the Atlanta Fed.

Despite all four of today's data points being awful, Mister Donut decided to raise his Q1 GDP forecast today from +0.3% to +0.4%. What a joke....

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:10am

Re the NORKs

I know that many of you discount Little Kim as a fool and blowhard...which he is. However, I'm still quite wary of the little bastard, particularly as it pertains to him being isolated..even by China.

Also, many of you may recall my interview of Charlie Johnston. Charlie's concern is that we are now in the deepest part of The Storm that he has been prophesying for the past 30 years and the biggest, primary security/safety threat of The Storm has always been expected to come from North Korea.

therefore, FWIW:

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:11am


What's your feeling with respect to USDJPY, Sheriff?

Swift Boat Vet TF
Apr 26, 2016 - 11:14am

Buffoon Brothers

Is this the newest and freshest Turdism, or did I just miss an earlier introduction of the term? BTW, I absolutely love it !!


Apr 26, 2016 - 11:16am

Great to see you around, Ferd

One item that seems prominent in the news today is the planned IPO of a ~5% stake in Saudi Aramco, with speculation rife as to WHY NOW, with oil prices near substantial lows. 1) Saudi petroleum assets a lot lower than universally estimated 2) Massive hedge against expected upcoming adverse events (deflation/lower oil price? WWW.III?) 3) (my guess) concession demanded by one side or another in the geopolitical tug of war between E and W I just can't shake the feeling that it may have something to do with this 'golden oldie': https://www.images-apmex.com/images/Catalog%20Images/Products/89726_Slab...

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:36am

Clinging to 111 support

Treading water until 2:00:01 pm EDT tomorrow

Angry Chef
Apr 26, 2016 - 11:39am

Mr. Kim

I've never been to North Korea so I honestly can't say what goes on their. All I ever get are pictures of Mr. Kim and his funny haircut and something about how he is obsessed with movies. I don't know as it is only the MSM that provides me the so called details of " Dr Evil ".

But I do know Korea had a long tradition of an advanced culture prior to the Korean War. And I do know that Mr. Kim, alias Dr. Evil, has refused to bow down and kiss the ring of the Empire ( and I do mean kiss the ring ).

I also know that the North Korean Military is fighting in Syria on behalf of the Assad Government. The reason North Korea, IMHO, is vilified is because they've yet to be completely annihilated and defeated. Thus the access of evil.

And last I heard they didn't have a Central bank. Just a coincidence I guess.

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:44am

off to get physical silver and I have capped my miner stocks

Only about 175 ounces but I decided not to increase my miners. This PMs fake market is really getting old. Hopefully arbitrage is happening with china's physical market.

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:47am
Apr 26, 2016 - 11:56am

Future's number one job


The only demographic constant: One death per person.

Apr 26, 2016 - 11:58am

@ DR

Talk about job security. In the US one every 14 seconds.

arch stanton
Apr 26, 2016 - 12:01pm

save the whales!!!

except pat higgins (and hillary)

Apr 26, 2016 - 12:08pm

Truman asks

Truman would like to ask the FED Chairwoman if good news is bad or is bad news good? He get's confused with all the data.

Dirt_Reynolds Sanford
Apr 26, 2016 - 12:11pm

@ Sanford

Chicago would be the "Vancouver" of mortician growth lol.

Edit: Typo

Apr 26, 2016 - 12:29pm

Hey Turd What are you looking

Hey Turd

What are you looking for to repurchase your option position? They dropped the SI price last night but it sure looks stubborn today. Not sure weather to by before the Fed or gamble after. My gut says buy today as the consolidation and small pull back at telling a story of strength

Apr 26, 2016 - 12:41pm
Apr 26, 2016 - 12:43pm


Seems to me LEAPS are a better way to go for silver. If you believe a long term bullish trend is starting a LEAP would be less vulnerable to short term manipulation.

Still a risk of course.

Antony von Clearwell
Apr 26, 2016 - 12:46pm


Gsr breakout to the down side! :)

Apr 26, 2016 - 12:47pm

DPRK today

Apr 26, 2016 - 12:52pm

A Billion ...


A Billion is a Difficult Number to Comprehend

A Billion Seconds ago it was 1959

A Billion Minutes ago Jesus was Alive

A Billion Hours ago our Ancestors were in the Stone Age

A Billion Days ago no one Walked on Earth on Two Feet




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