Fun With Comex Open Interest

96
Wed, Apr 20, 2016 - 11:21am

Gold prices remain firm today...with the exception of the $5 drop at the London PM Fix...and they remain at a critical juncture. Price needs to extend higher here but total Comex open interest is back above the 500,000 level and, if recent history is any guide, that's not a good sign.

Let's start with the open interest numbers for yesterday as they were exactly as expected. On the $19 price surge, you knew that The Banks were in there, desperately attempting to keep things in check. To that end, The Criminals issued another 13,553 contracts of Comex gold yesterday. Again, these contracts represent an additional 1,355,300 "troy ounces" of paper metal and a future intent to deliver over 42 metric tonnes of gold. However, no additional gold collateral was deposited and no delivery is ever intended. Instead, The Criminal Banks issue this new paper in order to meet Speculator demand and thereby manage price from making fresh highs above $1264...and preserving their carefully-painted head-and-shoulder top:

So, what happens next? Well, it looks like price wants to break higher and I want price to break higher...but we have recent history working against us. Check this out:

DATE OPEN INTEREST NEXT DAY DROP

Mar 10 504,418 -

Mar 17 508,262 -

Mar 22 510,579 -

Apr 12 504,523 -

Apr 19 503,331 so far, so good

So, we'll see. Like we've been saying, we need even more Spec fiat to flow into paper gold. This would force The Banks to take OI up to 550,000 and price would likely move to new highs near/above 00. Now, what could/can/might entice enough new Specs onto The Comex to make this happen? Maybe the next set of FOMC Fedlines next week on the 27th? Maybe the release of the first guesstimate of Q1 GDP the next day? Maybe more crazy fun out of Shanghai? I don't know. But we need some kind of catalyst...otherwise, The Banks will just overtly raid price again, forcing The Specs back out and dropping OI back toward 480,000.

Silver saw an open interest increase yesterday, too, but not much when you consider that price was up over 4%. Total Comex silver OI rose by 946 contracts to 194,510. Don't misunderstand, though. This is still an extraordinarily high amount of open interest. The all-time high in Comex OI was set last June 23 at 200,273 and, less than two weeks ago, we were at 175,000. However, if you really want to get frustrated and angry, consider this:

Every Comex contract represents an opportunity to buy or deliver 5,000 troy ounces of silver. Therefore, when we do the math: 194,510 contracts X 5,000 oz/contract we get a total Comex "obligation" of 972,550,000 ounces of "silver". And here's your trivia question of the day...How much silver does the world produce every year? About 870,000,000 ounces. So The Comex silver open interest represents at 112% of total mine supply.

How does that compare to gold? Well, the world is projected to mine about 3,000 mts this year or about 96,000,000 ounces of gold. With each Comex contract representing 100 ounces, a total OI of 503,331 contracts equals 50,333,100 ounces or about 52% of total mine supply.

And what about platinum? A Comex contract represents 50 ounces of platinum and there are currently 60,387 of them floating around. This represents 3,019,350 ounces of paper platinum. And how much platinum does the world mine every year? About 178 metric tonnes or roughly 5.7 million ounces. So here the Comex also trades about 52% of mine supply.

Lastly, and just for fun, you might consider that total Comex copper open interest is 201,891 contracts. Each contract represents 25,000 pounds of copper. This yields a total of just over 5 billion pounds of copper. That may sound like a lot until you consider that the world produces about 41 billion pounds annually. So, The Comex copper open interest represents about 12% of total mine supply.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Do you see a little bit of disparity here??? What would be the paper price of silver if open interest was cut in half to the level of gold and platinum? What would be the paper price if OI was reduced by 90% to the relative level of copper? And you wonder why I call the Bankers "criminals" and "thieves", and why I call the Comex a "den of vipers" while using the terms "fraud" "scam" and "sham".

So, anyway, before I start getting angry, I think I'll just give you a couple of charts and then close out this post. Here are gold and silver. Again, gold needs a move through 64 to ease some of my concerns. Provided gold holds in there in the short term, I still think that silver charges through .20 and heads to .70.

As I close, I see we're at $1258 and $17.20.

More later,

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  96 Comments

Marcrward
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:22am

Great Info

Thanks Turd!

Sanford
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:23am

Furst?

?

No..2nd. I'll take it!

alphamorph
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:26am

Craig - Did you forget the Batchelor/Cohen Link?

It's always helpful and I think you usually put it out on this day.

alphamorph
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:29am

I guess they took last night

I guess they took last night off due to the NY primaries. Didn't see a link today.

Apr 20, 2016 - 11:30am

Sprott Ask The Expert

Recorded this last Thursday with Marc Faber. Worth a listen.

Marchas45
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:31am

Did I Get My

4th???? Fucken AAAAAAAAH excuse the language but I'm ecstatic, my luck is back. Keep Stacking

LostMind
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:33am

Fufth!

Is it stalling?

Marcrward
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:45am

Silver moving averages

Turd, what are the Silver moving average targets for the 300, 400, 500 and 600 day MAs? thanks for the charts, they paint a pretty clear picture, manipulation does great charting work!

Fandango
Apr 20, 2016 - 11:54am

Turd

Don't know how you deal with this skullduggery on a daily basis, and front up to the turdites. You have my respect.

Aren't the shorts taking an ass kicking now? Put a smile on my dial please.

benque
Apr 20, 2016 - 12:01pm

Signs of the times

A Sign In A Shoe Repair Store In Vancouver That Read:

"We will heel you

We will save your sole

We will even dye for you."

**********************************

Sign over a Gynecologist’s Office:

"Dr. Jones, at your cervix.”;

**********************************

In a Podiatrist's office:

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**********************************

On a Septic Tank Truck:

Yesterday's Meals on Wheels

**********************************

At an Optometrist's Office:

"If you don't see what you're looking for,

You've come to the right place.”;

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On a Plumber's truck :

"We repair what your husband fixed.”;

**********************************

On another Plumber's truck:

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At a Tire Shop in Milwaukee :

"Invite us to your next blowout.”;

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On an Electrician's truck:

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**********************************

In a Non-smoking Area:

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fire and will take appropriate action.”;

**********************************

On a Maternity Room door:

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**********************************

At a Car Dealership:

"The best way to get back on your feet - miss

a car payment.”;

**********************************

Outside a Muffler Shop:

"No appointment necessary. We'll hear you coming.”;

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In a Veterinarian's waiting room:

"Be back in 5 minutes. Sit! Stay!”;

**********************************

At the Electric Company:

"We would be delighted if you send in your payment

on time. However, if you don't, YOU will be de-lighted.”

**********************************

In a Restaurant window:

"Don't stand there and be hungry; come on in and get fed up.”;

**********************************

In the front yard of a Funeral Home:

"Drive carefully. We'll wait.”;

**********************************

At a Propane Filling Station:

"Thank Heaven for little grills.”;

**********************************

In a Canberra Radiator Shop:

"Best place in town to take a leak.”;

**********************************

And the best one for last…;

Sign on the back of another Septic Tank Truck:

"Caution - This Truck is full of Political Promises"

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
10/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
10/16 10:00 ET Business Inventories
10/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Bldg Perms
10/17 8:30 ET Philly Fed MI
10/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
10/9 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
10/10 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
10/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
10/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending
10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
10/3 10:00 ET Factory Orders
10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
10/4 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit

Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
9/18 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Perm.
9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
9/18 2:30 ET CGP presser
9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
9/11 10:00 ET Wholesale Inv.
9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET ISM Svc PMI
9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
8/21 2:00 ET July FOMC minutes
8/22 9:45 ET Markit Manu and Svc PMIs
8/22 Jackson Holedown begins
8/23 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speaks

Key Economic Events Week of 8/12

8/13 8:30 ET Consumer Price Index
8/14 8:30 ET Retail Sales
8/14 8:30 ET Productivity & Labor Costs
8/14 8:30 ET Philly Fed
8/14 9:15 ET Ind Prod and Cap Ute
8/14 10:00 ET Business Inventories
8/15 8:30 ET Housing Starts & Bldg Permits

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