Fun With Comex Open Interest

96
Wed, Apr 20, 2016 - 11:21am

Gold prices remain firm today...with the exception of the $5 drop at the London PM Fix...and they remain at a critical juncture. Price needs to extend higher here but total Comex open interest is back above the 500,000 level and, if recent history is any guide, that's not a good sign.

Let's start with the open interest numbers for yesterday as they were exactly as expected. On the $19 price surge, you knew that The Banks were in there, desperately attempting to keep things in check. To that end, The Criminals issued another 13,553 contracts of Comex gold yesterday. Again, these contracts represent an additional 1,355,300 "troy ounces" of paper metal and a future intent to deliver over 42 metric tonnes of gold. However, no additional gold collateral was deposited and no delivery is ever intended. Instead, The Criminal Banks issue this new paper in order to meet Speculator demand and thereby manage price from making fresh highs above $1264...and preserving their carefully-painted head-and-shoulder top:

So, what happens next? Well, it looks like price wants to break higher and I want price to break higher...but we have recent history working against us. Check this out:

DATE OPEN INTEREST NEXT DAY DROP

Mar 10 504,418 -

Mar 17 508,262 -

Mar 22 510,579 -

Apr 12 504,523 -

Apr 19 503,331 so far, so good

So, we'll see. Like we've been saying, we need even more Spec fiat to flow into paper gold. This would force The Banks to take OI up to 550,000 and price would likely move to new highs near/above 00. Now, what could/can/might entice enough new Specs onto The Comex to make this happen? Maybe the next set of FOMC Fedlines next week on the 27th? Maybe the release of the first guesstimate of Q1 GDP the next day? Maybe more crazy fun out of Shanghai? I don't know. But we need some kind of catalyst...otherwise, The Banks will just overtly raid price again, forcing The Specs back out and dropping OI back toward 480,000.

Silver saw an open interest increase yesterday, too, but not much when you consider that price was up over 4%. Total Comex silver OI rose by 946 contracts to 194,510. Don't misunderstand, though. This is still an extraordinarily high amount of open interest. The all-time high in Comex OI was set last June 23 at 200,273 and, less than two weeks ago, we were at 175,000. However, if you really want to get frustrated and angry, consider this:

Every Comex contract represents an opportunity to buy or deliver 5,000 troy ounces of silver. Therefore, when we do the math: 194,510 contracts X 5,000 oz/contract we get a total Comex "obligation" of 972,550,000 ounces of "silver". And here's your trivia question of the day...How much silver does the world produce every year? About 870,000,000 ounces. So The Comex silver open interest represents at 112% of total mine supply.

How does that compare to gold? Well, the world is projected to mine about 3,000 mts this year or about 96,000,000 ounces of gold. With each Comex contract representing 100 ounces, a total OI of 503,331 contracts equals 50,333,100 ounces or about 52% of total mine supply.

And what about platinum? A Comex contract represents 50 ounces of platinum and there are currently 60,387 of them floating around. This represents 3,019,350 ounces of paper platinum. And how much platinum does the world mine every year? About 178 metric tonnes or roughly 5.7 million ounces. So here the Comex also trades about 52% of mine supply.

Lastly, and just for fun, you might consider that total Comex copper open interest is 201,891 contracts. Each contract represents 25,000 pounds of copper. This yields a total of just over 5 billion pounds of copper. That may sound like a lot until you consider that the world produces about 41 billion pounds annually. So, The Comex copper open interest represents about 12% of total mine supply.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! Do you see a little bit of disparity here??? What would be the paper price of silver if open interest was cut in half to the level of gold and platinum? What would be the paper price if OI was reduced by 90% to the relative level of copper? And you wonder why I call the Bankers "criminals" and "thieves", and why I call the Comex a "den of vipers" while using the terms "fraud" "scam" and "sham".

So, anyway, before I start getting angry, I think I'll just give you a couple of charts and then close out this post. Here are gold and silver. Again, gold needs a move through 64 to ease some of my concerns. Provided gold holds in there in the short term, I still think that silver charges through .20 and heads to .70.

As I close, I see we're at $1258 and $17.20.

More later,

TF

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  96 Comments

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rckymtnFandango
Apr 21, 2016 - 9:28am

well that didn't take

well that didn't take long...hammered down

Fandangomatt_
Apr 21, 2016 - 6:37am

matt_

Steady on... Exuberance can be interpreted as self-righteousness. Unfortunately an affliction of mine...

Are you ranting to prove a point?

Markedtofuture
Apr 20, 2016 - 10:42pm

TRX Pics

TRX posted a few screen shot pics on their website today.

Gravity Plant Update

This is the final stop for a gold processing gravity plant. It is called a shake table and when operating you would see why. During this time out we have transported our already paid for gravity plant which the original builders are reassembling now at Buckreef with the capacity to convert in place without any significant delay to CIL. As significant amount of the CIC will be utilized in the conversion Gravity/ CIL. After the testing phase we will run the operation first Gravity/ CIL. The final product should be faster, with good recoveries in shorter periods of time, but most importantly safe. This is something undertaken on our decision voluntarily.

Screen-Shot-2016-04-18-at-9.22.11-AM.png

Screen-Shot-2016-04-20-at-11.51.24-AM1.png

https://www.tanzanianroyalty.com/operational-updates/

Apr 20, 2016 - 9:43pm

ECB tomorrow

Here's a reminder of what happened after the last ECB meeting back on March 10. A euro smash was quickly followed by a huge euro rally. Gold was hit to $1237 but traded at $1287 just 12 hours later...which prompted the extreme Cartel raids of the 11th, 14th and 15th.

See here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7500/madness

matt_
Apr 20, 2016 - 8:31pm

Fandango

We probably have more in common than not. I'm not trying to school anyone, I'm just opinionated and extremely stubborn once I've made my mind up. Just ask my wife if you don't believe me.

When someone wants to start talking politics with me, I like to tell them that I am a liberal in the original sense of the word. I believe in equality, individual liberty, free association, the right to defend yourself, and the right to keep what you earn. More freedom means some ugly with the good, but I'd rather have more freedom than have everyone controlled inside a politically correct nightmare by the blunt force of the federal government.

Fred Hayek
Apr 20, 2016 - 8:12pm

Re: Harriet Tubman . . . enjoy it. They made a mistake.

Yes, she was undoubtedly chosen simply because she was black. Sure it's a little annoying that decisions are made on that basis.

But, on the other hand, she was a gun toting, christian woman who worked to help people assert their individual rights in contravention of the laws of tyrannical government.

So, in the end, they made exactly the wrong choice from their perspective. Celebrate that and ignore that they did it for a stupid reason.

Fandangomatt_
Apr 20, 2016 - 6:36pm

matt_

You sound like a 'hedging' Libertarian.

We have similar views.

I imagine you are younger than me. I grew up in the States 70's-80's and emigrated to OZ (1983).

As you get older, terms like 'cultural marxism', left vs right, become less relevant. Still, I'm more progressive than other farts my age. Controlled anarchy is good.

I think you 'schooled' me a bit today. Perhaps in the future we will be allies or respectful adversaries.

Fandango
Apr 20, 2016 - 5:37pm

Armchair Quarterbacks.

Everyone is tired of the whining. The media.

Get off your lazy asses and claim fair elections. Throw out computers, officials, political hacks. Get a fricking cardboard box, sheets of paper, people to count votes, and elect the next fool.

Visit the FAQ page to learn how to track your last read comment, add images, embed videos, tweets, and animated gifs, and more.

AIJ
Apr 20, 2016 - 5:35pm

Bix Coin

"Everything is happening. From the collapse of the control systems to the breakouts of gold and silver to a BREAKOUT of Bitcoin that shows very little sign of slowing down.

Yes, BTC has been firmly controlled by the Good Guys so there weren't huge spikes and collapses. Steady as she goes until the time was right.

Which is NOW!!

If you don't have any or are against the whole idea of Bitcoin you are probably starting to kick yourself for not jumping on board a few months or years ago.

If you aren't kicking yourself now you will be at $600 and then again at $2,000 and then at $20,000 and then at $100,000 per coin

Where will the price of BTC stop?

Wrong question.

How far will the devaluation of fiat money go is the RIGHT QUESTION!

Let me make it easy for you to buy some Bitcoin. Sign up at the link below with Coinbase.com and both you and I will get a free $10 in BTC after you buy your first $100 worth. It's that easy!

https://www.coinbase.com/join/51ba254f89fd211643000035

Still confused about why Bitcoin will rise with the collapse of the Global Monetary System? Here's a whole series of interviews I did back when Bitcoin was in the $100-$300 range:

https://www.google.com/search?q=bix+weir+bitcoin+youtube&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

What are you waiting for? Bitcoin's already over $400 and moving quickly towards $600+

May the Road you choose be the Right Road.

Bix Weir

www.RoadtoRoota.com

PS - Yes, this is another huge Bullseye on Roota's TIMELINE and there are more right around the corner!!"

FandangoMarkedtofuture
Apr 20, 2016 - 5:29pm

Markedtofuture

Please tell me why you guys put up with this shit! Are mesmerized? Do something.

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