Turd on The Shadow Of Truth

28
Tue, Mar 8, 2016 - 9:50am

Yesterday, I had the pleasure to visit again with Rory Hall and Dave Kranzler. It was a terrific discussion of the current situation in gold and silver and I encourage you to listen.

The original link that summarizes the discussion can be found here: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/sot-craig-hemke-demand-for-physic...

Here's some of the text Dave provided with the link:

"The debate raging in the precious metals community is if and when the a big raid on the precious metals market will commence. Today, for instance, gold had drifted higher in overnight trading only to be smacked pretty hard when the Comex opened. That’s nothing new. But what’s new, given the way in which the precious metals market is set up right now, is that after being taken down $12 by the criminal traders on the Comex, gold grinded higher until it was only down a couple bucks by the time the stock market closed. Even more interesting is that fact that the mining stocks (HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index) rejected repeated attempts to put them into negative territory on the day and they finished up over 6 points – 3.6% – on the day.

The trading pattern of the precious metals sector – at least for now – has defied all expectations of the market given that the technical factors in place now have historically ushered in a vicious takedown of the sector.

This data that I refer to when I talk about the bank picture, whether its the Commitment of Traders report or the Bank Participation report, it’s all dubious crap anyway because it’s generated by the criminals at the CFTC…when they crank out these reports, we’re supposed to take them seriously in the first place? The CFTC is a criminal co-conspirator [in the precious metals manipulation scheme] – Craig “Turd Ferguson” Hemke, SoT

A big variable in the expectation of a big sell-off in gold and silver is the COT “structure.” As of last Tuesday, the “Commercial Sector,” which is primarily the bullion banks, is net short 171,000 gold future contracts. The hedge funds segment of the COT is net long 104k gold future contracts. The “other reportables” and “non-reportable (retail trader) segments make up the rest of the long side of the bullion bank short position.

The net short of the bullion banks is 17.1 million ounces. Currently, the Comex vaults are showing 377k ounces of gold in the “deliverable” account and 6.8 million total ounces. This ratio of short interest to the amount of physical underlying is absurd. Technically it’s illegal because, as Craig discusses in the interview (see below), the CFTC continuously defies the laws in place and enables the banks to skirt mandated position limits on the Comex.

What will happen if one of these days the hedge funds decide to stand for delivery? If just 50% of the hedge funds stand for delivery? While it’s true that in any given delivery period that, at most, 1% of the long open interest stands for delivery, the laws of probability suggest that one of these days a significant portion of the longs will decide to take delivery. This will bust the Comex.

In the interview session below, we discuss this issue with Craig and several other factors right now that are affecting both the markets and the Central Banks ability to manipulate the markets. At some point the demand for physical gold/silver will break the system."

I think you'll find this audio to be both entertaining and informative.

TF

p.s. Here's the most important chart for gold in 2016:

About the Author

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turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  28 Comments

Boo-bemi
Mar 8, 2016 - 10:30am

Goldman Sachs on Commodities

From MarketWatch:

{It’s been a “supply-driven bear market” in commodities, according to Goldman analysts, led by Jeffrey Currie.

“As a result, higher prices are much harder to sustain in a supply-driven market, since supply is primed to return with higher prices. But this lesson will likely only be learned through false starts,” they write in a note dated Monday.

Beyond suggesting the commodities rebound is a head fake, Currie & Co. say the rally is “premature” and “not sustainable.”

....

So what’s an investor to do? Get short, starting with gold. Currie and his team have backed their bearish view on gold, even as they point out they’re down about 5% on their bet against the rallying metal.

The bank also recommends shorting copper and aluminum — offering that view in a separate note by Currie, Max Layton and other Goldman analysts.

“With prices rising significantly, and with the structural case for base metals remaining very poor, we recommend producers and investors with longer-term horizons begin implementing hedging strategies and consider short positions in copper and aluminium over the coming month,” that separate note, dated Monday, says.}

This could be a forewarning of future smack downs in the coming weeks and months, but it's nice to see that they're down 5% on their short. :)

Super_Douche Boo-bemi
Mar 8, 2016 - 10:47am

This is GREAT!!!

If you do the opposite of what Goldman ballsach's recocommends you will make a lot of money. This means we should double up on our gold long positions. Let's not be Muppets.

canary
Mar 8, 2016 - 10:54am

Shanghai gold witdrawal

I don't expect the Chinese investors chasing the price....They don't have to....It will be their Western friends chasing it.

AGAU s1lverbullet
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:11am

miners nut kickin etc

Seems odd to me that they would clamp down on Miners I would have thought the miners could take some retail investment money away from phys demand ?

But then again these are psychopathic criminal assholes so there's no rhyme or reason etc

Compwiz4u
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:15am

Takedown Tuesday

I figured this takedown was coming since it is Tuesday plus somebody on this site last week warned us that they always take Gold down during the PDAC Convention.

ArtL
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:16am

PSLV Premium is at a many month high!

Is the over 5% premium on PSLV telling us anything?

Looks like silver spot is showing another V bottom.

goldcom
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:18am

China is not done Buying

This is my 2 cents anyway. They have reduced the physical pressure on the market keeping price at a more acceptable level while western investors are going into gold. My feeling is they have been doing this all along, by first making sure they don't over extend the miners and sellers(western CB's) offerings and using the Crimex to drive price down or keep it lower.

They just want it at sale prices as long as they need to do it.

LostMind
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:19am

Are you worried about the SGE?

A hypothesis for introspection:

Chinese debt, housing boom, and the value of gold.

The Chinese are doing all they can to do these things:

1) Buy and hold as much Gold as possible

2) Encourage their people to buy as much Gold as possible

3) Encourage their people to BUY all available housing units in China

4) Have lowered credit requirements for purchase of housing units.

5) Encouraging the purchase of more than one housing unit for investment purposes

6) Chinese are wanting to "control" the value of Gold, they want the "fix" to be in China

7) Chinese will be devaluing their currency

8) Chinese need exports to maintain 1 thru 7 above for their own protection (Loss of control if they have a break down)

What happens:

Chinese pursue great devaluation AFTER they have acquired large Gold horde...

Do the Chinese encourage GREAT asset swap with its own people?

Chinese have encouraged great debt cycle that needs to be washed... So, Devalue the Yuan, Revalue Gold at $5,000/ounce or higher?!?! This causes great devaluation of assets that have been transferred to "the People" who may now FEEL compelled to LIQUIDATE their PM's to pay off or maintain their debt and assets...

Who wins? The Chinese government? The people who run the Chinese government? The Chinese people? Who else wins in the world? Those gambling against the Yuan?

If Chinese are not part of the Cabal, then who controls what? Applying what happened in the USSA during the last 80 years with what is happening in China, what would you expect to happen to the Chinese and their banking system?

Is this "the next great" fleecing?

tyberious
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:23am

March 8, 2016 Sydney,

March 8, 2016

Sydney, Australia

Over 4,000 years ago during Sargon the Great’s reign of the Akkadian Empire, it took 8 units of silver to buy one unit of gold.

This was a time long before coins. It would be thousands of years before the Lydians in modern day Turkey would invent gold coins as a form of money.

Back in the Akkadian Empire, gold and silver were still used as a medium of exchange.

But the prices of goods and services were based on the weight of metal, and typically denominated in a unit called a ‘shekel’, about 8.33 grams.

For example, you could have bought 100 quarts of grain in ancient Mesopotamia for about 2 shekels of silver, a weight close to half an ounce in our modern units.

Both gold and silver were used in trade. And at the time the ‘exchange rate’ between the two metals was fixed at 8:1.

Throughout ancient times, the gold/silver ratio kept pretty close to that figure.

During the time of Hamurabbi in ancient Babylon, the ratio was roughly 6:1.

In ancient Egypt, it varied wildly, from 13:1 all the way to 2:1.

In Rome, around 12:1 (though Roman emperors routinely manipulated the ratio to suit their needs).

In the United States, the ratio between silver and gold was fixed at 15:1 in 1792. And throughout the 20th century it averaged about 50:1.

But given that gold is still traditionally seen as a safe haven, the ratio tends to rise dramatically in times of crisis, panic, and economic slowdown.

Just prior to World War II as Hitler rolled into Poland, the gold/silver ratio hit 98:1.

In January 1991 as the first Gulf War kicked off, the ratio once again reached 100:1, twice its normal level.

In nearly every single major recession and panic of the last century, there was a sharp rise in the gold/silver ratio.

The crash of 1987. The Dot-Com bust in the late 1990s. The 2008 financial crisis.

These panics invariably led to a gold/silver ratio in the 70s or higher.

In 2008, in fact, the gold/silver ratio surged from below 50 to a high of roughly 84 in just two months.

We’re seeing another major increase once again. Right now as I write this, the gold/silver ratio is 81.7, nearly as high as the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.

This isn’t normal.

In modern history, the gold/silver ratio has only been this high three other times, all periods of extreme turmoil—the 2008 crisis, Gulf War, and World War II.

This suggests that something is seriously wrong. Or at least that people perceive something is seriously wrong.

There are so many macroeconomic and financial indicators suggesting that a recession is looming, if not an all-out crisis.

In the US, manufacturing data show that the country is already in recession (more on this soon).

Default rates are rising; corporate defaults in the US are actually higher now than when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt back in 2008.

These defaults have put a ton of pressure on banks, whose stock prices are tanking worldwide as they scramble to reinforce their balance sheets against losses.

I just had a meeting with a commercial banker here in Sydney who told me that Australian regulators are forcing the bank to increase its already plentiful capital reserves by over 40% within the next several months.

This is an astonishing (and almost impossible) order.

The regulators wouldn’t be doing that if they weren’t getting ready for a major storm. So even the financial establishment is planning for the worst.

Good times never last forever, especially with governments and central banks engineering artificial prosperity by going into debt and printing money.

These tactics destroy a financial system. And the cracks are visibly expanding.

So while the gold/silver ratio isn’t any kind of smoking gun, it is an obvious symptom alongside many, many others.

Now, the ratio may certainly go even higher in the event of a major banking or financial crisis. We may see it touch 100 again.

But it is reasonable to expect that someday the gold/silver ratio will eventually fall to more ‘normal’ levels.

In other words, today you can trade 1 ounce of gold for 80 ounces of silver.

But perhaps, say, over the next two years the gold/silver ratio returns to a more historic norm of 55. (Remember, it was as low as 30 in 2011)

This means that in the future you’ll be able to trade the 80 ounces of silver you acquired today for 1.45 ounces of gold.

The final result is that, in gold terms, you earn a 45% “profit”. Essentially you end up with 45% more gold than you started with today.

So bottom line, if you’re a speculator in precious metals, now may be a good time to consider trading in some gold for silver.

Until tomorrow,

Simon Black

Founder, SovereignMan.com

SS121 LostMind
Mar 8, 2016 - 11:38am

@LostMind re:confucionalysis (my replies in bold)

A hypothesis for introspection:

Chinese debt, housing boom, and the value of gold.

debt and housing are econ not monetary, value of gold=chart price

The Chinese are doing all they can to do these things:

Chinese? ...1-people 2-govt or 3- pboc ?

1) Buy and hold as much Gold as possible

who? actual physical Gold or the fiat media created "west to east" pboc "gold" that agent Andy used to peddle?

2) Encourage their people to buy as much Gold as possible

now that is an interesting chink in the bros. armor (excuse the semi-racial pun)

3) Encourage their people to BUY all available housing units in China

meaningless

4) Have lowered credit requirements for purchase of housing units.

again, all econ static, not a primary factor

5) Encouraging the purchase of more than one housing unit for investment purposes

etc etc (get them loaded w/ debt)

6) Chinese are wanting to "control" the value of Gold, they want the "fix" to be in China

do you know what the "fix" is, and how irrelevant it really is to the chart? ( even according to theofficial nonsense fed to the controlled opposition aka "metals community")

7) Chinese will be devaluing their currency

one minute they want to replace the usd, the next they devalue, and all the while there's this endless "gold" chatter... how might they bring these media creations together??

8) Chinese need exports to maintain 1 thru 7 above for their own protection (Loss of control if they have a break down)

economic/irrelevant

the pboc and chinese banks can create all the fiat needed. any breakdown is by design

What happens:

Chinese pursue great devaluation AFTER they have acquired large Gold horde...

not Gold... "gold"

Do the Chinese encourage GREAT asset swap with its own people?

not asset swap, Gold swap. reval the fake gold chart and then buy it up from the people, who are the only "Chinese" that have any Gold. and who are being intentionally squeezed for their devalued cash. neat trick huh?

Chinese have encouraged great debt cycle that needs to be washed... So, Devalue the Yuan, Revalue Gold at $5,000/ounce or higher?!?! This causes great devaluation of assets that have been transferred to "the People" who may now FEEL compelled to LIQUIDATE their PM's to pay off or maintain their debt and assets...

YES, good grief we're saying the same thing. (that should worry you!)

Who wins? The Chinese government? The people who run the Chinese government? The Chinese people? Who else wins in the world? Those gambling against the Yuan?

who would win? the bros. who own the PBOC

If Chinese are not part of the Cabal, then who controls what? Applying what happened in the USSA during the last 80 years with what is happening in China, what would you expect to happen to the Chinese and their banking system?

the bros. own all the currencies, charts, and central banks.

Is this "the next great" fleecing?

they're shooting for it, been positioning since their usd/silver chart broke in 2013, fun to watch.

good stuff LM

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