Fast Market Monday

Mon, Feb 8, 2016 - 11:03am

I guess now we know why gold and silver surged on the Friday afternoon Globex. With European stocks already in the tank, the Dow has fallen 300 points this morning as the USDJPY teeters on a vital/key/pivotal support level. All of this has finally driven gold to a higher high for the first time in nearly three years.

Going to need to type as fast as possible...

The predictable effort was made to claw back Friday's gains last evening. We've seen this for years and gold was driven back to $1164 at one point last evening. However, global equity collapse and a falling USDJPY actually kept The Banks from attaining a full claw. Gold turned and rallied, instead, and now it's really rolling. As I type, I have a last of $1197. This means that for the first time since 2012, we're in a rally that has made a higher high. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS!

Silver popped like crazy once it made it through it's 200-day. I have a last in the Mar16 of $15.41. At present, I'm working with JimC to take off my Mar16 call spread. I'll keep you posted. (And Jim just texted that I'm filled and out. Total profit on the trade was about $1000 Too bad I made it into a spread. Oh well.)

The Dow is now down 340. The key thing to watch today will, of course, be the USDJPY. It is desperately trying to hold 116 and staying above there is VITAL. If the BoJ/SNB/ECB/FED fail to act soon to support it, it could really collapse and fast. This would spike the metals and crush equities. THEREFORE, WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY.

Interest rates are continuing to collapse, too. The 10-year note is down 8 bps to 1.77% and the 30-year Long Bond is down 8 bps, too, at just 2.60%. WOW!

And DB is down again and now under $16. What's next? Under $15. And then under $14...

OK, to the charts. Again, we'll try to make this as quick as possible in order to get this posted as quickly as possible.

Here's your USDJPY. If it falls through 116, there's really no support until 110. Can you even imagine the carnage in equities and the dollar price of gold at 110 USDJPY?!?


Gold, so far, has an intraday high of $1199.50. This is now well above the October 15 high of $1192 and this gives us our first higher high since The Massive Cartel Beatdown began back in April of 2013. With gold above ALL of its moving averages, the next target looks to be near $1220. BUT, this is only a guess because, IF the USDJPY collapses and takes the stock market with it, gold's not stopping at some arbitrary line on the chart.

Silver really shot higher once it git through its 200-day and I have a high so far of $15.45 with a last of $15.34. What we really want to see is a close today above that 200-day. From there, we can begin to wonder about where it might head next. Though with gold making a higher high, $16.40 is certainly becoming a distinct possibility.

The "stock market" looks terrible. It would not be a good sign for the stockroaches if it makes a new closing low today but, of course, THE KEY is 116 USDJPY.

Two other items we've been following that you need to watch closely, too, are DoucheBank and the high yield junk bond market. DB is making a new low at $15.64 as I type and the high yield junk ETF, the HYG, is making new lows, too. Both of these bode ill for the "stock market" so, again, watch them closely.

And the HUI is just remarkable. It's UP another 5 points at 153 and a full 54% off its lows of just three weeks ago. It's now "overbought" to an extreme so DO NOT BE SURPRISED if you see a very quick and sharp bout of profit-taking. Therefore, stay grounded and patient. Remember, in metals bull markets, it's almost always wise to sell a little when everyone is buying and buy a little when everyone is selling.

OK, I'm going to stop here so that I can get this posted. More later.


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About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Feb 8, 2016 - 11:05am



Feb 8, 2016 - 11:05am



Feb 8, 2016 - 11:06am



Feb 8, 2016 - 11:11am


What a morning

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:11am


Where's CRASH!

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:18am

Interesting chart from Sunshine Profits

I'm not trying to be a shill for this guy. Since I'm a customer of Texas Metals, I get his charts once a week for free. Anyhow, he has charted the gold/oil ratio over a long period and sees the current market behavior as being similar to what happened in 1999 right before gold made its final long term bottom.

The two rising blue channel lines are the gold/oil ratio in 1998-1999 compared to 2015-2016. 

If you have an account at Texas metals, you can see the full report and a larger image here:

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:19am
Joseph Warren
Feb 8, 2016 - 11:23am
Feb 8, 2016 - 11:23am

Oops. Seventh

what a start to the day 

hats off to the Broncos and the Manning machine

EDIT: in our haste to post let's not forget to hat tip the Turd

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:24am

Unusual silver chart pattern

It reminds me of something but I can`t quite put my "finger"on it, any suggestions ?

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:27am
Feb 8, 2016 - 11:28am


 GSR still at 78.0 even though gold and silver have both been going up. The GSR has been dancing around 78 since last September, so silver has nothing to catch up on price-wise because the GSR is locked at 78 and has been for quite some time.

Seems they are desperate to keep order at a GSR of 78 regardless of underlying phys. prices.

Maybe they read Clif High's webbot report that said for a brief moment GSR will drop to 1, parity in price for gold and silver for brief time. This is from a very old forecast, so we will see.

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:28am

Next critical level for the HUI

Also from that Sunshine Profits report: He sees the 2008 low in the HUI (~170 on a weekly basis) as the critical level. He predicts the HUI will top out before then and start heading lower. He's still predicting a final bottom of around 80 for the HUI. The guy has been right more often than not, so be cautious everybody! It would mean a 50% drop from here.

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:34am

Pet Rocks

I just got back from walking the pet rocks. They usually just lay there and do nothing. Today they started barking and demanded to go out for a walk.

Strange, the guy at the coin store assured me that my pets would be well behaved? May have to return them and ask for a refund. I think I'll wait for them to calm down before taking them back..........

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:35am

PM,s moving nicely

I sit here with the old farting clapper twitchin' waiting for a major smack down but it's nice to see where these metals want to go when they finally break out big Time meanwhile everything else is swirling down the dunny , maybe I can get back in the green with my miners this year

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:35am

this week's JMB special

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5 oz Sunshine Silver Bar


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kilo rabbit


Feb 8, 2016 - 11:37am

we are on the cusp

of a global banking crisis, leverage and derivative, global econ crisis, countries and the people are overloaded with debt and promises, perhaps social and political crisis:

what can possibly go wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:45am

Chesapeake Energy

 trading halted 8 times this morning! DB down to 15.42!

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:45am

DoucheBank CDS

rut-roh, Rhaggy...

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:45am

WA Govt backs Perth Mint

I'm not 100%, but I think it is the West Australian Government that has a stake in Perth Mint (30% from memory), not the Feds.

It is a small point, but is why Bron Sucheki suggests a possibility that WA would secede from the rest of Aussie, in the event of Queenie enacting the 1956 Banking Act provisions for outlawing gold ownership.

99.999999999999999% of Aussie's don't know that the Queenie can do this, and if she could do this, then who could suggest we are a free people?

Unfucking believable! 

We love the Queenie and her spawn, and their little broodlings, and pay for all their trips out here!

Gotta love the peasants here - give 'em beer (cake) and footy and not a peep from the sheep!

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:53am


Not much!

Everything groovy in Oz!

No global crisis in site - I know because our MSM are debating things like our Queen's representative, the Governor General's (our real ruler) questionable horse pick in the Melbourne Cup, or about a lightning strike in Dubbo, or new blue bottle sightings at Manly Beach blah blah

Antony von Clearwell
Feb 8, 2016 - 11:53am


Also stopped trading earlier as per Bloomberg. There too much 'volatility'.... 

Not sure whether they trade again.

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:59am


Crash has been out getting a bloody rental car. Lol Keep Stacking

Feb 8, 2016 - 11:59am


Looks like they're trying to goose it up.

Feb 8, 2016 - 12:07pm

Watch out now...

Looks like "somebody" is intent upon bidding the USDJPY back higher...

J Siefert
Feb 8, 2016 - 12:07pm

@ Turd - DB Rising CDS

Can you say in a sentence or two what that means for DB?

J Siefert
Feb 8, 2016 - 12:08pm


Credit Default Swaps are "insurance" against debt default. The rapidly rising CDS price means that fear of total collapse and default of DoucheBank is growing.

Feb 8, 2016 - 12:10pm

At least I beat Marchass

Trajic, that my aim and feat today was to upstage Marchass!

My life's accomplishments and goals appear to be diminishing in scale.

I think a grinder would do the job better on my gouty toe - fuck the amateur hour hack saw!

Its pulsating now every 2 seconds in gonad grabbing agony now. 

Ice doesn't help, and if I could get to the garage, this fucking digit is GONE!

After chopping the cunt off, I'll flame thrower it, and then place it unlovingly in my fucking smoothie maker, then flame thrower it again, before driving my fucking truck over the malignant recalcitrant digit!

J Siefert
Feb 8, 2016 - 12:11pm

@ Turd - DB Rising CDS

Cheers Turd!

UulaBear Mickey
Feb 8, 2016 - 12:15pm


Thanks for the heads up! Even Gold's little brother is not being sold at the Perth. :-O

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