Gradual Rally Into Year End

Mon, Dec 21, 2015 - 12:13pm

"Gradual rally into year end", along with "sell the rumor, buy the news" regarding the Fed rate hike, has been our mantra since we saw that November price smash coming back in October. So far, its sure seems like it's all coming along as planned.

Metals prices are UP again today and gold is now HIGHER than it was when the FOMC rate decision was announced back on Wednesday. Uh-oh. This has to be making some of the big Spec shorts more than a little nervous.

So, whaddayathinkathis?

Perhaps more importantly, how about this?

And what if we looked at it this way?

So, $1080 and $1090 become pretty important this week. It's certainly no coincidence, therefore, that the high of the day (so far) in the Feb16 gold is $1079.80. If we can get through there and head off to tackle $1105 before the end of the year, our plan of a decent January rally will really begin to take shape.

And it's not just gold. Silver, too, is now ABOVE where it was prior to the FOMC fedlines:

So, think of this from the perspective of a Spec least those shorts that are actually held by thinking, logical human beings. You've followed gold all the way down from $1180 in late October, in a plunge that was "caused" by the expectations that The Fed was finally poised to raise rates. On October 27, one day before the October FOMC that The Banks used to start the ball rolling, a CoT survey was taken and it looked like this:

Large Spec: Long 225,985. Short 68,551. NET LONG 157,444 contracts

Small Spec: NET LONG 8,404 contracts

Gold Commercials (Cartel): Long 138,770. Short 304,618. NET SHORT 165,848 contracts

Compare those numbers to the CoT from last Tuesday, one day before the December FOMC that finally produced the first rate hike in nine years and the one which had been promised almost since the beginning of QE3 in October of 2012:

Large Spec: Long 155,934. Short 142,278. NET LONG 13,656 contracts

Small Spec: NET SHORT 5,393 contracts

Gold Commercials (Cartel): Long 151,015. Short 159,278. NET SHORT 8,263 contracts


If over the past six weeks...

You're a Spec short (large or small)...

At what point do you begin to get nervous about your position?

The Fed has hiked rates just as you were told they would. But you were also told that this would cause gold prices to fall even further. But they haven't. Instead, after falling initially, they've completely reversed and are how HIGHER than they were before the news back on Wednesday. "Oh crap", you say, and you begin to cover. Not so much at first as you're hoping that this is just a simple dead cat bounce. But then gold move UP through $1090. Does this make you even more nervous? How about $1105 and the 50-day moving average? Would bursting through there cause you to not only buy to cover BUT also buy to move long?

This is how it works, my friend. And this is why I've repeatedly told you to expect a gradual rally into year end and then a strong rally in January. And this is why I bought that small collection of call options for expiration in late January.

And what is THE KEY POINT in driving this "unexpected reversal" in gold? Go back and look at that CoT data. While price was falling from $1180 to $1060, the freaking Commercials covered an incredible 145,340 shorts. That's 14,534,000 ounces of paper gold obligations that they were able to buy back. If you figure that, on average, they made at least $70/ounce on the "trade", that's just north of one billion freaking dollars they made by shorting and capping in October and then covering the contracts back up in November/December. Yes, The Bullion Banks work at the behest of The Central Banks in managing and maintaining the gold price. But that's just in The Big Picture. For the day-to-day, they make A LOT of freaking money in the process of doing it, too. It's good work if you can get it and The Banks will do everything they can to protect this CASH COW.

Again, this is why we hope/pray/plan for the day when this entire fraudulent fractional reserve bullion bank pricing scheme comes crashing down. Besides the obvious economic disparities caused by the manipulation, how many untold billions of dollars have been stolen from "regular" investors and traders over the years through this criminal control and manipulation of the paper markets?

What will likely happen now and in January? All of the Spec short-covering and buying will be absorbed by The Banks through brand new short-selling. The Spec NET LONG position will expand as will The Commercial NET SHORT position. Will the "market" begin to break this time, with a higher high and an UPward resolution versus The Nemesis Line? I don't know. We'll have to wait for January and February to find out. In the meantime, however, I am completely comfortable with the forecast made back in October, well before this current selloff began...That, after bottoming in early December, gold (and silver) will gradually rally into year end and then accelerate this move in January. What happens next is anyone's guess.


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


4 oz
Dec 21, 2015 - 12:15pm
Dec 21, 2015 - 12:15pm


Can't believe it!

Oh well...settle for 2nd.

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:21pm
Dec 21, 2015 - 12:23pm

Making way for Marchas


Oh nooo! I took Marchas's spot. Sorry.

Merry Christmas and keep stacking.

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:24pm

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:28pm

And we're very likely onto

And we're very likely onto something here, too. Will be looking to buy a few S&P calls for a Santa Claus or year-end rally IF we can come down and tap this line:

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:33pm

Thank You Wingy

Charlie. Keep Stacking

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:46pm

John Nash / Bitcoin /Triffin's Dilemma

John Nash on the Triffin Dilemma

"The late mathematician John Nash, whom some believe to be a contributor to the invention of bitcoin, was also an advocate of monetary reform in order to solve the Triffin Dilemma.

The desirable goal, in Nash's mind, was to create an international reserve instrument capable of operating independent of individual nation states while remaining stable in the long run, severing deficiencies found in credit-based money.

Such a money supply would be able to provide a national savings outlet while operating in an autonomous, global manner. With an obsessive focus on cryptography and ideal money, the introduction of bitcoin is covered with the fingerprints of John Nash."

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:47pm

Latest Operation Freedom

Fellow Turdites,

I believe you will find yesterday's Operation Freedom Show of interest.


Sunday, December 20, 2015

Topics Discussed

Manipulation of financial markets, New World Order Syndicate, Benghazi, Putin, The Ukraine, ISIS, Syria, The Constitution, Natural resources, Reserve currency, Corruption, gold, silver Global Elite, International Banking Cabal, debt, Federal Reserve, Too Big To Fail Banks, Crony Capitalism, Debt Ceiling, Financial implosion, Recession, Economic Depression, Freedom, Liberty, Obamacare

2Download Full Show (MP3) ↓

Segments & Guests

Dec 21, 2015 - 12:56pm

this week's JMB special


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Good luck investing, and we look forward to servicing all of your precious metals needs.

JM Bullion

Dec 21, 2015 - 1:05pm


Be sure you see this:

Dec 21, 2015 - 1:20pm

Very likely that these two

Very likely that these two items are related:

Dec 21, 2015 - 1:23pm

VERY NICE to see both metals

VERY NICE to see both metals wrapping up the Comex session very near their highs of the day. Gold $1080 and silver $14.30

Dec 21, 2015 - 1:35pm
Dec 21, 2015 - 2:22pm

Xmas Bonus

What is the Executive Branch's cut.

abguy4 TF
Dec 21, 2015 - 2:24pm

So Turdmeister

So Turdmeister

Help me out here. I see the August and Sept lows, and I wonder why this drop is not going there or lower. Who says that red line will be defended - since it wasn't any resistance just 3 months ago??

I confess - I don't own those ultra dark secret chart de-coder shades like you have................:-}

Dec 21, 2015 - 2:26pm

JM Bullion

Awesome deal - thanks Turd!

Just added to my stack - the first time in several months. Couldn't pass up those turtles (me being Terp and all). Had to snag a few of those bars too =)

Bring on 2016!

Guardian of the blind TF
Dec 21, 2015 - 2:26pm

Craig Hamky?

Turd, why are you calling yourself craig Hamky, or something like that in the interview?

Dec 21, 2015 - 2:46pm

JM Bullion Silver Sea Turtle

I'm still in Baja so I shipped my coins/bars to my mom. For a few weeks down here I helped an organization release baby sea turtles - very cool!!!

Guardian of the blind
Dec 21, 2015 - 2:47pm



Dec 21, 2015 - 2:47pm

Yep, maybe...

We'll see.

Dec 21, 2015 - 2:51pm

Solar Power as part of Budget Deal

I guess that solar power companies will continue to benefit from recent budget so.... solar requires silver... and silver will be in demand ... so turdites should be happy!

Dec 21, 2015 - 2:52pm

@Guardian of the... Re: Craig

Okay, I'll say it... as you've been a subscriber for over 2 years now


Dec 21, 2015 - 3:12pm

If you're trading ANYTHING short term

Be sure you watch 121 USDJPY very closely overnight and tomorrow:

kryton619 Guardian of the blind
Dec 21, 2015 - 3:18pm

Craig Hamky

Guardian.....while our fearless leader's parents may have considered naming their bouncy baby boy Turd, in the end they couldn't bring themselves to do it. Instead, they named him Craig and along with that given name, he took the family name of Hemke.

Needing an alias for the Zerohedge forum, Craig decided on taking Burt Reynolds' character name of Turd Ferguson which stuck with him as his popularity grew.

Outside of, Turd uses his real name as some of the PM elites such as Eric Sprott can't handle being interviewed by a quick witted guy name Turd.

Dec 21, 2015 - 3:23pm

Tax Loss Selling

Pre Christmas sale on Coeur Mining (CDE) right now. Get some to stuff in your sock!

Dec 21, 2015 - 3:43pm

Tax loss selling

Is a boogeyman.

Dec 21, 2015 - 3:43pm


I read recently a formerly large lake in Bolivia is draining rapidly. It mentioned that it was the supply for several mines there. Are Coeur's Bolivian mines affected?

Dec 21, 2015 - 3:46pm

5 oz JMB offer

Thanks, I got some too. Might as well give myself a present... ;-)

If I relatives in Fla. were younger I'd be all over those turtles... walked around many a protected nest in SW Fla.

Dec 21, 2015 - 3:48pm

Turtle rounds

might forward info to U. of Maryland site ;-)


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