Reposting This Excellent Video

130
Wed, Dec 16, 2015 - 10:21am

We first posted this video from John Titus back on September 16, just days before the most recent FOMC when The Fed was expected to "raise interest rates". No time like the present to post it again and we implore you to take the time to watch it.

In the 90 days since, we've gotten to know John a little bit and we've even had him in for an A2A webinar. That show is public, too, and I encourage you to listen when you have the time: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/7227/a2a-john-titus

Financial media seem certain that Mother Fellen is going to raise the Fed Funds rate later today, perhaps by 25 basis points. So why is Mother so hell-bent on raising rates RIGHT NOW, even though all of the economic data is still awful? After all, we've stated for years that The Fed can't and won't raise rates. Remember, though, we've also told you countless times that "the FOMC/Fed will do whatever they deem is in the best interest of their (TBTF) member banks"? In this case, it's all about the excess reserves as described in John's video.

  • Mother can't eliminate the interest on excess reserves that The Bernank started paying in 2009. Recall the hissy fit Jamie Dimon threw at the mere mention of an excess reserve interest rate cut a few months back?
  • But Mother also can't force The Banks to lend nor can she force the banks to reverse repo the cash back to The Fed.

Therefore, she's considering raising rates by 25 bps. Why?

All of this is sort of what David Stockman discusses here: https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/december-16-2015-when-the-end-of-the-bubble-begins/

The bet is that the "economy" can withstand higher rates and the flattened yield curve that usually foreshadows recession. Again, this is all uncharted territory, thanks to the criminal Bernank. Mother has NO IDEA of whether this will work. Perhaps, she'll hesitate again later today out of fear and uncertainty. We'll know soon enough.

Regardless of whether she does or doesn't, my plans aren't changing as I continue to add and stack physical precious metal. 2016 looms as a volatile and uncertain year. The news later today will only serve to raise the stakes.

TF

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  130 Comments

hammerman · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:22am

weeeee

first finally again today

CPE · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:25am

lol @ Janet

Before the rate hike:THE DYKE

after the rate hike:

JANET YELLEN DAY 1

MiningJunkie · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:41am

Stockman

I listened to DS' presentation on Monday night and he is the most vitriolic bear I have ever heard in 38 years in this business. The major problem lies in the following statement: "NEVER underestimate the replacement value of stocks within an inflationary spiral". If this rate hike pushes those reserves into the lending arena, money velocity will accelerate by way of added lending and subsequent transactional activity. If this Zimbabwe-esque scenario plays out, that gargantuan $4.5 trillion of printed money sitting in excess reserves will cause an inflationary firestorm the likes of which will propel stock values into the ionosphere. The charts will be rendered meaningless as cash is jettisoned in favour of anything "non-cash" and short positions/put options will wind up worthless. In contrast, heard assets like gold and silver and the outrageously-undervalued gold and silver miners will soar as a replacement for deteriorating purchasing power of cash.

Furthermore, despite the recent rally, sentiment amongst the pro's is black-bearish and the COT for the S&P E-Mini contract shows that the Commercials are massively short.

Whether or not to short this move is a tough call so I am waiting it out on the sidelines simply long gold and the miners based on valuation.

Sherpa Bill · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:41am

Video Link

Hi Turd. Where is the link to the September 16 video? Don't see it in this post. Too much coffee will do strange things. I hope that you have a seat belt on the TFMR studio swivel chair today. 

indiana rod · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:42am

Little Janet Yellen

Little Jack Horner

Sat in a corner

Eating his Christmas pie;

He put in his thumb

And pulled out a plum

And said, "What a good boy am I."

Little Janet Yellen

Sat in a corner

Looking up at the sky;

She said, with a straight face

Our rate we must retrace

And said, "What a good girl am I."

· Dec 16, 2015 - 10:44am

Today's charts

In gold, for a breakout and bottom, the key level remains the area between $1080 and $1090. Should gold push through there, stout resistance will be found at $1105 and then the 50-day moving average, currently near $1110. If you want to get excited about a year end rally that extends into January, you need a close above those levels.

In silver, we were worried earlier this week that the breakdown through $14 foreshadowed a pre-fedline drop toward $13. Thankfully, for our collective sanity, that did NOT happen and I have a last of $14.15 instead.

The key level to gain and hold remains $14.40 and, above there, silver can begin a move toward the 50-day MA near $14.90.

Sherpa Bill · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:45am

Try reloading the page

Hopefully some of the software updates we're installing will help things run more smoothly.

· Dec 16, 2015 - 10:54am

The last time...

Last October 28, metals spiked upward just before the FOMC announcement and then viciously reversed leading into a two week smackdown. They were suckering in the longs...

So I am wary of this nice spike this morning.

matt_ · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:55am

I'm wary too

We've been burned so many times...

James Crighton · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:56am

John Titus

The John Titus video-presentation is simply outstanding. The man is a hero.

jc

· Dec 16, 2015 - 10:57am

From ZH

More on the liquidity drain of a rate hike here. MUST READ.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-16/fed-may-have-drain-much-1-tril...

Doctor J · Dec 16, 2015 - 10:59am

Me too, Doc

However, do not forget that the critical difference between now and Oct 28 is today's extremely bullish CoT structure.

lakedweller2 · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:03am

Red 13

Good bet as any

J Siefert · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:14am

I see Oil is going...

to that place where the sun disappears to in winter.

gldslv · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:16am

Still don't know the Fed's grip on asset pricing

or the CBs worldwide. If the announced rate hike limits to 1% down on equities then the power is in full force. More importantly, the gold up action right now would indicate a good smash down to even for the day. It would give the media the narrative that its not so bad.

Spoke to Peter Schiff today and he basically is keeping it simple. After today the FED speak is out of the way and the attention is back to quantifying current asset values. His opinion is 2016 wil be the most financially interesting of our lifetimes.

· Dec 16, 2015 - 11:29am

Baltic Dry Index

Holy moly! This thing had "bounced and was near 500 just two weeks ago. Now at a new record low: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-16/baltic-dry-crashes-new-record-...

From the ZH post:

China, which makes about half the world’s steel, is on track for the biggest drop in output for more than two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence...

Owners are reeling as China’s combined seaborne imports of iron ore and coal -- commodities that helped fuel a manufacturing boom -- record the first annual declines in at least a decade. While demand next year may be a little better, slower-than-anticipated growth in 2015 has led to almost perpetual disappointment for rates, after analysts’ predictions at the end of 2014 for a rebound proved wrong.

“It doesn’t help that Chinese steel production is about to see the most dramatic decline to the lowest in 20 years,” said Herman Hildan, a shipping-equity analyst at Clarksons Platou Securities in Oslo. “Demand growth is collapsing.”

Sounds like a perfect time to hike rates and exaggerate the deflationary tsunami and monetary outflows from the world's potentially growing economies.

So, in a desperate attempt to spur bank lending, Mother appears set to raise rates...apparently oblivious to the damage this will cause to an already-reeling global economy.

lakedweller2 · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:38am

Am I Wrong But

If the US has 100 mil or so unemployed or underemployed, and places like Walmart sell Chinese goods; and, the dollar is high compared to all other currencies making US imports expensive, them wouldn't that situation impact shipping on the world markets. Sounds like it is a US issue which is impacting China.

· Dec 16, 2015 - 11:41am

Wariness

I'd like to go long before that meeting. With the bullish structure of the COT, I have not wanted to take a short position.

But perhaps the best advice I have read is to wait, and let things settle out into a trend...

· Dec 16, 2015 - 11:42am

Ahead of Fed

The 2-yr note has tapped above 1% at 1.01%. You can follow it here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y?countrycode=bx

The flat yield curve remains unchanged, however, with the 10-yr at 2.30 for a spread of just 129 basis points.

Doctor J · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:43am

Now you're talking, Doc

No need to gamble just for the sake of gambling.

· Dec 16, 2015 - 11:48am

Pre-FOMC look at the S&P

Today's highs right at the confluence of the 50-day and 200-day MAs. Obviously, what happens at 2:00:01 and after will be important. 2020 obviously remains a critical and well-defended support level.

lakedweller2 · Dec 16, 2015 - 11:58am

DrJ

Good thinking. Make them commit.

Gamble · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:04pm

Oh shit

The play is in the name!!!

gamble I'm my worst enemy gamble 

Long nugt !!!!

Thorus · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:04pm

Impact of SEC ruling

I've seen some comments recently about SEC rulings that would make the various 3x funds like NUGT and DUST pretty much unusable.

I can buy NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) in my IRA as an alternative for exposure to a rising gold miner market.

But is there an analogous index you could buy that would increase in value when miners were falling - a non-3x fund something like DUST that would not be screwed up by the new SEC rules?

Appreciate any info folks could provide.

Best Regards,

Thorus

canary · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:08pm

Fed has too much power....destructive power

Seems like the Whole Financial World is in freeze for the next two hours, or so.......With an exception of North Korea and maybe few other wild places.

Barfly · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:10pm

that gap

So anyone notice that gap in the silver and gold charts? Did they suspend trading? What's up with that?

Gamble · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:11pm

I also have been reading

That gold is a pet rock! 

Gamble the negativity is suspicious gamble 

James Crighton · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:20pm

Mother Y has three choices:

1) Decrease rates to negative;

2) Leave rates where they are - i.e. kick the can down the road;

3) Increase rates (25 basis points).

Assessment:

"1" ain't gonna happen.

The World and her dog is expecting "3" (and have been told "3") but, if it is "3", Wall Street will crash along with the economy. Well, that will be fine for the banksters if they are appropriately positioned. And, as Turd has said so many times..... depending on how the banksters have positioned themselves, it will be either "3" or "2".

So, what will it be at 2pm E.S.T. .... "2" or "3"? My bet is "2" ...... because there has been no diversion today - no False-Flag - no 9/11 equivalent (or larger), no nuke that has hit the US of A.

And if it is "2" - hope you have stacked real high laddies and lassies ...................

(And if it is "3" - hope you have stacked real high laddies and lassies) ...................

;-)

jc

benque · Dec 16, 2015 - 12:22pm

Did anyone notice

that Kerry was in Moscow yesterday, kissing Vlad's ass? Saw it on BBC Worldnews, but not anywhere else, although I didn't look.

Kerry, with Vlad's shite all over his face, smiled and said "we can work together".

So, is that 2 : zip for Vlad over O'Bumble now, in foreign policy? Or am I being too kind to O'Bumble?

When, oh when, will the West find a actual statesman, to issue a sane and inspired foreign policy?

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