Fri, Dec 4, 2015 - 11:20am

As we discussed just yesterday, with the CoT structure very likely at historic and unprecedented levels, the next move for the metals was going to be UP, not down. We've also frequently mentioned the likelihood that an FOMC rate hike would be a "sell the rumor, buy the news" type of event. With those two items in mind, we can't consider today's market action to be a surprise.

Let's dive right in as I'm running a little behind schedule. I'm honored to have taken on a new responsibility for the greater community and I look forward to sharing the news with you later today. For now, though, let's head straight to the charts.

Below are the 2-month gold and silver charts that we've studied a couple of times this week, most recently yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but I think it's quite easy to see which way these patterns have resolved themselves this morning:

Alright, so, what should we root for over the remainder of the day. Well, let's keep it simple. As you know, the first major hurdle for this next/current rally is $1080 gold and $14.40 silver. While I'd love to see prices extend even higher today, as we close the day and wrap up the week, all I want is a close above these levels. Not asking for much, I know...but...as they say...beggars can't be choosers.

Once solidly above $1080 and $14.40, we can set our sights upon the next major resistance. As you see below, that level is $1105 in gold as well as the 50-day moving average, currently near $1120. In silver, $15 will be a challenge and the 50-day near there will be, too. Expect the SPEC shorts to put up a battle there in a desperate attempt to regain the downward momentum. They'll throw good money after bad but they will lose. Little do they seem to know...they have no chance. The Banks always win this paper game and The Specs always get the shaft. That's just how it works.

For further evidence that this is a serious Spec short squeeze, check the divergence between gold and the yen today. If the smarty-pant, momo-chasing Specs think things are painful today, wait until the yen rallies later this month. The pain will be amped up considerably at that point. Christmas won't be their only "religious experience"!

Again, there's A LOT of fuel here. The gold CoT we get later today will again show new record extremes in Spec and Commercial positioning...and with the OI increase since Tuesday, the extremes have already grown some more. Of course, we're seeing considerable Spec short covering today but the CoT is still at historic levels. Be sure to keep this in mind.

And the HUI is just beautiful and those miners I bought earlier this week are kickin butt and takin names. It's already dealing with its own 50-day MA and I'm happy to report that, as of this moment, it's actually above that critical level. The question is: Can it close there? I think it will. Check the positive chart as well as the upwardly-trending RSI and MACD.

There's much more that I could type about here but I need to get this posted before it gets too late...and we can certainly discuss the BLSBS etc in the podcast later today. As I close, the metals are still near their highs of the day at $1085 and $14.52. Keep a close watch and hope to maintain these levels through the Comex close.

Have a fun day!


About the Author

turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()


Dec 4, 2015 - 3:44pm

Well, it's official

December 2, 2015...a date which will live in infamy...

For, at the close of business on that date, there can be no doubt that the "commercials" in gold held a NET LONG position for the first time on recorded history.

Will discuss in podcast.

Dec 4, 2015 - 3:44pm

COT comments

Any COT comments?

Dec 4, 2015 - 3:48pm
garth TF
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:50pm


Thanks Mr Turd

Dec 4, 2015 - 3:57pm


Just seen your news....Holy sweet mother of Jesus!

Eric Sprott no less, you/we are in exalted company!

I remember the days of a dude that posted on Zerohedge... you have come a long long way....congratulations...you deserve it....long may it continue

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:00pm

@4oz upticks and downticks

Since Jake pointed it out a couple of years back, I've been casually watching the days of the week going through upticks and downticks in price. I have to agree with what he said and that is that mondays and teusdays appear to be downtick days and thursdays and fridays appear to be uptick days.

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:03pm

Brown U. Safe Space

That is totally unacceptable....They forgot the finger paints and pacifiers. These poor students will have to file for lifetime SSI benefits due to the PTSD they are going to experience.

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:14pm

Eric Sprott

Is surely one of the greats. I have been following him since the early 90's and he is as honest and decent as they come. He has all his skin in the game and sadly because of this is no longer a billionaire.

Well done Craig

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:15pm


TF, so fun to see your journey from the first days of the Watchtower blog when I had just discovered the metals and was trying to figure out what was going on in the economic world. You have worked hard and have the courage to put yourself "out there" to help others understand what is going on. I know you will continue on with integrity and truth!

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:18pm

Outstanding weekly wrap w/Eric Sprott

Sprott one of the best guys in the business

Now down with King World News

(almost 3 years not one hit for their show/removed from favorites)

and Kitco w/Cambone (4 year total boycott, never listen any of the garbage)

Congrats again

4 oz
Dec 4, 2015 - 4:26pm


Dec 4, 2015 - 4:27pm

My generation

I am absolutely ashamed to be a part of this generation. We have to be the largest group of dumb fuck pansy idiots ever to walk the planet.

That article about Brown is absolutely hilarious and outrageous all at the same time. What MORONS!!!!

I don't know whether to laugh or cry right now.

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:27pm

With all due respect

Kitco is pronounced Shitco. I take credit for that nickname.

Look forward to the podcast.

And multiple adult beverages.

I agree with you bullet, I am ashamed to be a millennial, albeit an old one.

A generation of educated idiots.

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:28pm

Weekly Wrap with Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report and Eric Sprott

Congratulations Turd...now posted at KeReport

Weekly Wrap with Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report and Eric Sprott.

Listen to Eric Sprott share his views on Friday’s U.S. unemployment report, the upcoming FOMC meeting and the Bullion Bank maneuvering on the Comex.


Reply to this comment


Dec 4, 2015 - 4:31pm


Congrats Turd!

Job well done =)

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:39pm

Dec 4, 2015 - 4:57pm

Bad Policy

Yes, we all want a safe space.

Where can we find a safe space from sociopathic world leaders?

wait... that is the wrong question...

How can we put the sociopathic leaders into a place that will keep us all safe from them?

I 'll try to rant about this safe space issue after ruminating a few days. At our university, we go to "safe space training," then we get a little sign for our office door designating it as a "safe space." I have not attended. But I'll bet todays gains in NUGT that I'll be required to be trained at some point.

But can't you just wait to be led by all those Brown Graduates who land positions in government in the next 20 years?

What are we creating?

CC Horses
Dec 4, 2015 - 5:06pm

EBay users are snatching up precious metals

EBay users are snatching up precious metals.

Forget gadgets and toys. Some consumers are loading up on precious metals this holiday season.

EBay said it frequently moves $1 million to $2 million of bullion from top sellers in a day, with volume increasing as the holidays approach. On Thursday, the online marketplace offered two daily deals on gold bars, and sold about one $1,000 bar per minute, generating just under $1 million in sales.

EBay's gross merchandise volume for bullion has spiked 60 percent from last year, and 27 percent from October, with about a quarter of sales on mobile devices. The company attributes the rise partly to a slump in the price of gold, which traded near a six-year low on Friday.

"When the spot price of gold and silver drops, bullion purchases tend to rise," said Ryan Moore, an eBay spokesperson. "A drop in the price is often what drives those who have been considering investing in bullion off the fence," he said

EBay is leveraging increasing interest in precious metals on its platform this holiday season. The company is marketing branded coins as the perfect stocking stuffers, an alternative to the traditional lump of coal. The company is offering deals on DC Comics' Superman, Disney's Snow White coins created by Royal Canadian Mint and a LucasFilm Star Wars coin from ModernCoinMart.

Silver is also a hot commodity among eBay's users. EBay offered a Thanksgiving deal on 100 1-ounce Silver American Eagles coins priced at $16,665. Its sellers sold the silver weight equivalent of twenty-five fifteen pound turkeys on turkey day.

Last weekend in just one day, it sold 2,500 rolls of 20 Silver American Eagles through a daily deal. That translates to more than $850,000 in gross merchandise volume and sales of 50 ounces of silver every 60 seconds

In addition to individual sellers selling bullion on the site, the company has teamed up with some of the biggest online precious metals retailers, including Royal Canadian Mint, APMEX and Bay Precious Metals.

Most bullion buyers on eBay are males between 40 and 65-years-old. But eBay is touting its global user base of 150 million for reaching non-traditional buyers.

"For those who purchase on bullion on eBay, we're seeing a significant number of these same people make repeat purchases," said Moore. Eighty percent of eBay's bullion buyers last week were repeat customers, purchasing an average of 2.5 items.

Buyers include collectors, investors and those people buying precious metals to melt them down to make jewelry. EBay's average take rate is 10 percent but the company has a significantly lower take rate on bullion, said Hal Lawton, who oversees all aspects of eBay's North American business.

While eBay said the long-term value of the metals increases their allure, it did not say if a recent increase in geopolitical tensions contributed to the sales jump.


Dec 4, 2015 - 5:13pm

Congrats on the new 'posting' at Sprott

Kudos to the hardest working guy in this space. Hopefully it does well for your subscription base - please don't forget about us 'little people'! Cheers and 'bonne chance'.

Dec 4, 2015 - 5:20pm
Dec 4, 2015 - 5:34pm

Black student demands

In case any of you are curious about students at various colleges who want safe spaces to protect from microaggression and allow LGBTQI students to be free to explore their identity sphere:


Our young people have become racists in the name of protecting everyone from racism. They've become intolerant in the name of promoting tolerance. They want to block free speech in the name of liberty. They live in a self adsorbed bubble and lash out at anyone who might pop it. It is an upside down world worthy of 1984.

By the way, a number of the colleges have been issued demands that are patently illegal, and many others that are immoral. Pointing out morality isn't allowed anymore, so I might get in trouble from the thought police.

Dec 4, 2015 - 5:36pm

RIP Scott Weiland

STONE TEMPLE PILOTS - "Interstate Love Song" (Official Music Video)
Dec 4, 2015 - 5:49pm

Really glad you are working with Sprott

Congrats, Craig. Quality work gets noticed. And now I can mention that I started using Sprott's vaulting service this year. Toronto appealed to me as a vault location (as opposed to Quebec). Good way to get some assets out of the country. Keep stacking up north.

Dec 4, 2015 - 6:04pm

Congrats Turd

Been busy all day and have to go out now, so all I can say is wow! Your credentials are truly being recognized despite calling yourself Turd.

Eric is truly a great person, down to earth, honest and trustworthy. That's just my opinion from afar.

Hopefully you negotiated a nice little contract payable in ounces.

Dec 4, 2015 - 9:49pm


Hadn't heard RIP Scott Weiland!

Righting Moment
Dec 4, 2015 - 10:30pm

A Well Deserved Opportunity

Congrats Craig !! While I have only been recently following and learning from you and the community you host here, it is obvious that others have recognized your skills and ability to interview. Your new venture with Sprott is well deserved !!

Righting Moment
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:32pm

Thank you

And thanks to everyone for making it all possible.

Dead Canary
Dec 5, 2015 - 7:36pm

Yea, I think it's time to

Yea, I think it's time to retire the "Turd Ferguson" moniker. You're not a Zero Hedge poster anymore.

Dec 6, 2015 - 1:31am

RE: Moniker

Yes, retire the Turd, bring back Burt Reynolds. On second thought, let's stick with Turd.


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Key Economic Events Week of 4/15

4/16 9:15 ET Cap Util and Ind Prod
4/17 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Feb)
4/17 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories
4/18 8:30 ET Retail Sales (March)
4/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
4/18 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Feb)
4/19 8:30 ET Housing Starts and Building Permits

Key Economic Events Week of 4/1

4/1 8:30 ET Retail Sales (Feb)
4/1 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Manu PMIs
4/1 10:00 ET Construction Spending (Feb)
4/1 10:00 ET Business Inventories (Jan)
4/2 8:30 ET Durable Goods (Feb)
4/3 9:45 ET Markit & ISM Services PMIs
4/5 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 3/25

3/26 8:30 ET Housing Starts (Feb)
3/27 8:30 ET Trade Deficit (Jan)
3/28 8:30 ET Q4 GDP final guess
3/28 10:00 ET Pending Home Sales (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Personal Income (Feb)
3/29 8:30 ET Consumer Spending and Core Infl. (Jan)
3/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
3/29 10:00 ET New Home Sales (Feb)

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