Squeeze

119
Fri, Dec 4, 2015 - 11:20am

As we discussed just yesterday, with the CoT structure very likely at historic and unprecedented levels, the next move for the metals was going to be UP, not down. We've also frequently mentioned the likelihood that an FOMC rate hike would be a "sell the rumor, buy the news" type of event. With those two items in mind, we can't consider today's market action to be a surprise.

Let's dive right in as I'm running a little behind schedule. I'm honored to have taken on a new responsibility for the greater community and I look forward to sharing the news with you later today. For now, though, let's head straight to the charts.

Below are the 2-month gold and silver charts that we've studied a couple of times this week, most recently yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but I think it's quite easy to see which way these patterns have resolved themselves this morning:

Alright, so, what should we root for over the remainder of the day. Well, let's keep it simple. As you know, the first major hurdle for this next/current rally is 80 gold and .40 silver. While I'd love to see prices extend even higher today, as we close the day and wrap up the week, all I want is a close above these levels. Not asking for much, I know...but...as they say...beggars can't be choosers.

Once solidly above 80 and .40, we can set our sights upon the next major resistance. As you see below, that level is 05 in gold as well as the 50-day moving average, currently near 20. In silver, will be a challenge and the 50-day near there will be, too. Expect the SPEC shorts to put up a battle there in a desperate attempt to regain the downward momentum. They'll throw good money after bad but they will lose. Little do they seem to know...they have no chance. The Banks always win this paper game and The Specs always get the shaft. That's just how it works.

For further evidence that this is a serious Spec short squeeze, check the divergence between gold and the yen today. If the smarty-pant, momo-chasing Specs think things are painful today, wait until the yen rallies later this month. The pain will be amped up considerably at that point. Christmas won't be their only "religious experience"!

Again, there's A LOT of fuel here. The gold CoT we get later today will again show new record extremes in Spec and Commercial positioning...and with the OI increase since Tuesday, the extremes have already grown some more. Of course, we're seeing considerable Spec short covering today but the CoT is still at historic levels. Be sure to keep this in mind.

And the HUI is just beautiful and those miners I bought earlier this week are kickin butt and takin names. It's already dealing with its own 50-day MA and I'm happy to report that, as of this moment, it's actually above that critical level. The question is: Can it close there? I think it will. Check the positive chart as well as the upwardly-trending RSI and MACD.

There's much more that I could type about here but I need to get this posted before it gets too late...and we can certainly discuss the BLSBS etc in the podcast later today. As I close, the metals are still near their highs of the day at $1085 and $14.52. Keep a close watch and hope to maintain these levels through the Comex close.

Have a fun day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  119 Comments

  Refresh
Maryann
Dec 4, 2015 - 4:15pm

Congrats!

TF, so fun to see your journey from the first days of the Watchtower blog when I had just discovered the metals and was trying to figure out what was going on in the economic world. You have worked hard and have the courage to put yourself "out there" to help others understand what is going on. I know you will continue on with integrity and truth!

brolgaboy
Dec 4, 2015 - 4:14pm

Eric Sprott

Is surely one of the greats. I have been following him since the early 90's and he is as honest and decent as they come. He has all his skin in the game and sadly because of this is no longer a billionaire.

Well done Craig

stealthbear
Dec 4, 2015 - 4:03pm

Brown U. Safe Space

That is totally unacceptable....They forgot the finger paints and pacifiers. These poor students will have to file for lifetime SSI benefits due to the PTSD they are going to experience.

JackPutter
Dec 4, 2015 - 4:00pm

@4oz upticks and downticks

Since Jake pointed it out a couple of years back, I've been casually watching the days of the week going through upticks and downticks in price. I have to agree with what he said and that is that mondays and teusdays appear to be downtick days and thursdays and fridays appear to be uptick days.

Owtovit
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:57pm

WOW TURD!

Just seen your news....Holy sweet mother of Jesus!

Eric Sprott no less, you/we are in exalted company!

I remember the days of a dude that posted on Zerohedge... you have come a long long way....congratulations...you deserve it....long may it continue

garthTF
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:50pm

Yippeee!

Thanks Mr Turd

garth
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:48pm
garth
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:44pm

COT comments

Any COT comments?

Dec 4, 2015 - 3:44pm

Well, it's official

December 2, 2015...a date which will live in infamy...

For, at the close of business on that date, there can be no doubt that the "commercials" in gold held a NET LONG position for the first time on recorded history.

Will discuss in podcast.

Dyna mo hum
Dec 4, 2015 - 3:40pm

GREAT TUNE FROM MERLE ..LISTEN TO THE FIRST LINE

https://youtu.be/6IfW9ROOR-E "I WISH A BUCK WAS STILL SILVER LIKE BACK WHEN THE COUNTRY WAS STRONG"

Subscribe or login to read all comments.

Contribute

Donate Shop

Get Your Subscriber Benefits

Private iTunes feed for all TF Metals Report podcasts, and access to Vault member forum discussions!

Key Economic Events Week of 7/6

7/6 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
7/6 10:00 ET ISM Service PMI
7/7 10:00 ET Job openings
7/9 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
7/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
7/10 8:30 ET PPI for June

Key Economic Events Week of 6/29

6/30 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
6/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
6/30 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
6/30 12:30 ET CGP and SSHW to Capitol Hill
7/1 8:15 ET ADP Employment
7/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
7/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
7/1 2:00 ET June FOMC minutes
7/2 8:30 ET BLSBS
7/2 10:00 ET Factory Orders

Key Economic Events Week of 6/22

6/22 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
6/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
6/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for June
6/23 10:00 ET New home sales
6/25 8:30 ET Q1 GDP final guess
6/25 8:30 ET Durable Goods
6/26 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Spending
6/26 8:30 ET Core inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 6/15

6/16 8:30 ET Retail Sales
6/16 8:30 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
6/16 10:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US Senate
6/16 4:00 pm ET Goon Chlamydia speech
6/17 8:30 ET Housing Starts
6/17 12:00 ET Chief Goon Powell US House
6/18 8:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims
6/18 8:30 ET Philly Fed
6/19 8:30 ET Current Account Deficit
6/19 1:00 pm ET CGP and Mester conference

Key Economic Events Week of 6/8

6/9 10:00 ET Job openings
6/9 10:00 ET Wholesale inventories
6/10 8:30 ET CPI for May
6/10 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
6/10 2:30 ET CGP presser
6/11 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims
6/11 8:30 ET PPI for May
6/12 8:30 ET Import price index
6/12 10:00 ET Consumer sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 5/25

5/26 8:30 ET Chicago Fed
5/26 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
5/27 2:00 ET Fed Beige Book
5/28 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
5/28 8:30 ET Durable Goods
5/29 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
5/29 8:30 ET Core Inflation
5/29 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 5/18

5/18 2:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/19 8:30 ET Housing starts
5/19 10:00 ET CGP and Mnuchin US Senate
5/20 10:00 ET Goon Bullard speech
5/20 2:00 ET April FOMC minutes
5/21 8:30 ET Philly Fed
5/21 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs for May
5/21 10:00 ET Goon Williams speech
5/21 1:00 ET Goon Chlamydia speech
5/21 2:30 ET Chief Goon Powell speech

Key Economic Events Week of 5/11

5/11 12:00 ET Goon Bostic speech
5/11 12:30 ET Goon Evans speech
5/12 8:30 ET CPI
5/12 9:00 ET Goon Kashnkari speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Quarles speech
5/12 10:00 ET Goon Harker speech
5/12 5:00 ET Goon Mester speech
5/13 8:30 ET PPI
5/13 9:00 ET Chief Goon Powell speech
5/14 8:30 ET Initial jobless claims and import prices
5/14 1:00 ET Another Goon Kashnkari speech
5/14 6:00 ET Goon Kaplan speech
5/15 8:30 ET Retail Sales and Empire State index
5/15 9:15 ET Cap Ute and Ind Prod
5/15 10:00 ET Business Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 5/4

5/4 10:00 ET Factory Orders
5/5 8:30 ET US Trade Deficit
5/5 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
5/5 10:00 ET ISM Sevrice PMI
5/6 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
5/7 8:30 ET Productivity
5/8 8:30 ET BLSBS
5/8 10:00 ET Wholesale Inventories

Key Economic Events Week of 4/27

4/28 8:30 ET Advance trade in goods
4/28 9:00 ET Case-Shiller home prices
4/29 8:30 ET Q1 GDP first guess
4/29 2:00 ET FOMC Fedlines
4/29 2:30 ET CGP presser
4/30 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
4/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
5/1 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
5/1 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI

Recent Comments

Forum Discussion

by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:36pm
by SteveW, Jul 11, 2020 - 6:25pm
by TexasTonto, Jul 11, 2020 - 5:19pm
by ja1920voo, Jul 11, 2020 - 11:37am
by tork311, Jul 10, 2020 - 3:17pm