Squeeze

119
Fri, Dec 4, 2015 - 11:20am

As we discussed just yesterday, with the CoT structure very likely at historic and unprecedented levels, the next move for the metals was going to be UP, not down. We've also frequently mentioned the likelihood that an FOMC rate hike would be a "sell the rumor, buy the news" type of event. With those two items in mind, we can't consider today's market action to be a surprise.

Let's dive right in as I'm running a little behind schedule. I'm honored to have taken on a new responsibility for the greater community and I look forward to sharing the news with you later today. For now, though, let's head straight to the charts.

Below are the 2-month gold and silver charts that we've studied a couple of times this week, most recently yesterday. Maybe it's just me, but I think it's quite easy to see which way these patterns have resolved themselves this morning:

Alright, so, what should we root for over the remainder of the day. Well, let's keep it simple. As you know, the first major hurdle for this next/current rally is 80 gold and .40 silver. While I'd love to see prices extend even higher today, as we close the day and wrap up the week, all I want is a close above these levels. Not asking for much, I know...but...as they say...beggars can't be choosers.

Once solidly above 80 and .40, we can set our sights upon the next major resistance. As you see below, that level is 05 in gold as well as the 50-day moving average, currently near 20. In silver, will be a challenge and the 50-day near there will be, too. Expect the SPEC shorts to put up a battle there in a desperate attempt to regain the downward momentum. They'll throw good money after bad but they will lose. Little do they seem to know...they have no chance. The Banks always win this paper game and The Specs always get the shaft. That's just how it works.

For further evidence that this is a serious Spec short squeeze, check the divergence between gold and the yen today. If the smarty-pant, momo-chasing Specs think things are painful today, wait until the yen rallies later this month. The pain will be amped up considerably at that point. Christmas won't be their only "religious experience"!

Again, there's A LOT of fuel here. The gold CoT we get later today will again show new record extremes in Spec and Commercial positioning...and with the OI increase since Tuesday, the extremes have already grown some more. Of course, we're seeing considerable Spec short covering today but the CoT is still at historic levels. Be sure to keep this in mind.

And the HUI is just beautiful and those miners I bought earlier this week are kickin butt and takin names. It's already dealing with its own 50-day MA and I'm happy to report that, as of this moment, it's actually above that critical level. The question is: Can it close there? I think it will. Check the positive chart as well as the upwardly-trending RSI and MACD.

There's much more that I could type about here but I need to get this posted before it gets too late...and we can certainly discuss the BLSBS etc in the podcast later today. As I close, the metals are still near their highs of the day at $1085 and $14.52. Keep a close watch and hope to maintain these levels through the Comex close.

Have a fun day!

TF

About the Author

Founder
turd [at] tfmetalsreport [dot] com ()

  119 Comments

Dec 4, 2015 - 11:22am

From ZH

If you actually care about this stuff, then be sure to read this:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/january-us-has-added-294000-wa...

Airgead
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:23am

zero comments?

Well, let's change that!

4 oz
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:25am
ArtL
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:27am

Thurd!

I like saying Thurd.

my mood is much improved this morning.

Gamble
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:27am

Squeeze

Maybe?

Gamble
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:29am

What's the yen doing?

Gamble gamble

Dec 4, 2015 - 11:31am
101

Here you go

Very pleased and HONORED to announce that I'll be helping the good folks at Sprott with some of their blog content. Specifically, I'll host the monthly "Ask The Expert" series as well as the weekly Sprott Money News wrap up with Eric, himself. Here's the first edition, which we recorded earlier this morning. Thanks again to Eric and everyone at Sprott for this opportunity. https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/december-4-2015.html

lakedweller2
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:37am

Sprott

Good on you TF. High compliment.

procog
Dec 4, 2015 - 11:41am

Turd, Congratulations!

You have acheived a well earned position in the exclusive industry.

And I made the "Top Ten!"

Now I can count on some PSLV making gains for a change. It is Sprott who should be honored. JMHO

Dec 4, 2015 - 11:41am

Copy of email just sent to a friend

Thank you, *****.

And it simply cannot be coincidence that, with Bank leverage at unprecedented levels on the Comex, reaching 325:1 registered to open interest yesterday, that Dec15 deliveries are non-existent. Check this out:

In Dec15 silver, where the leverage ratio is near historical norms at 19:1, there have been 3,507 posted "deliveries" this month while Dec15 open interest has fallen from 4,078 last Friday to yesterday's 591.

In Dec15 gold, however, where the leverage ratio is the aforementioned 325:1, there have been a whopping 44 posted deliveries while open interest has fallen from 7,849 to 3,799.

The scam/sham/illusion plot thickens.

C

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Key Economic Events Week of 10/21

10/22 10:00 ET Existing home sales
10/24 8:30 ET Durable Goods
10/24 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
10/24 10:00 ET New home sales
10/25 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 10/14

10/15 8:30 ET Empire State Fed MI
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10/18 10:00 ET LEIII
10/18 Speeches from Goons Kaplan, George and Chlamydia

Key Economic Events Week of 10/7

10/8 8:30 ET Producer Price Index
10/9 10:00 ET Job Openings
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10/9 2:00 ET September FOMC minutes
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10/11 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment

Key Economic Events Week of 9/30

9/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI
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10/2 China Golden Week Begins
10/2 8:15 ET ADP jobs report
10/3 9:45 ET Markit Service PMI
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10/4 8:30 ET BLSBS
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Key Economic Events Week of 9/23

9/23 9:45 ET Markit flash PMIs
9/24 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
9/26 8:30 ET Q2 GDP third guess
9/27 8:30 ET Durable Goods
9/27 8:30 ET Pers Inc and Cons Spend
9/27 8:30 ET Core Inflation

Key Economic Events Week of 9/16

9/17 9:15 ET Cap Ute & Ind Prod
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9/18 2:00 ET Fedlines
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9/19 8:30 ET Philly Fed
9/19 10:00 ET Existing Home Sales

Key Economic Events Week of 9/9

9/10 10:00 ET Job openings
9/11 8:30 ET PPI
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9/12 8:30 ET CPI
9/13 8:30 ET Retail Sales
9/13 10:00 ET Consumer Sentiment
9/13 10:00 ET Business Inv.

Key Economic Events Week of 9/3

9/3 9:45 ET Markit Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET ISM Manu PMI
9/3 10:00 ET Construction Spending
9/4 8:30 ET Foreign Trade Deficit
9/5 9:45 ET Markit Svc PMI
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9/5 10:00 ET Factory Orders
9/6 8:30 ET BLSBS

Key Economic Events Week of 8/26

8/26 8:30 ET Durable Goods
8/27 9:00 ET Case-Shiller Home Price Idx
8/27 10:00 ET Consumer Confidence
8/29 8:30 ET Q2 GDP 2nd guess
8/29 8:30 ET Advance Trade in Goods
8/30 8:30 ET Pers. Inc. and Cons. Spend.
8/30 8:30 ET Core Inflation
8/30 9:45 ET Chicago PMI

Key Economic Events Week of 8/19

8/21 10:00 ET Existing home sales
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